The ACC will clash with the Big 12 as the Duke Blue Devils pay a visit to the Baylor Bears. Game time is set for 3:30 EST on Saturday, September 15, at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas. Fans can watch the game on FS1.
If we check the Week 3 college football odds, Baylor is listed as a 6-point favorite at home.
Duke has been surprisingly impressive early in the season. They took care of business 34-14 in their opener against Army, a team that beat them a year ago. The Blue Devils then followed up that win with a 21-7 road win against a strong Northwestern team.
Unfortunately for Duke, the win at Northwestern came at a cost, as quarterback Daniel Jones suffered a broken clavicle that will keep him out for the foreseeable future. Junior Quentin Harris, who doesn’t have much playing experience, will be forced into the starting role against Baylor.
The Bears, meanwhile, have also gotten off to a 2-0 start. After beating Abilene Christian 55-27 in their opener, Baylor went on the road last week to beat Texas-San Antonio 37-20. To be honest, the scores of those games don’t inspire a lot of confidence. But after going 1-11 last season, Matt Rhule and the Bears have to be ecstatic about putting a couple in the win column.
One of Baylor’s losses last year came against Duke in September. The Blue Devils dominated that game with a strong rushing attack and a defense that forced four turnovers. Baylor’s only scores in that game came on long pass plays, something Duke will hope to remedy as they head to Waco as underdogs.
I’ll admit that this pick could come back to burn me. After all, I’m siding with an underdog on the road that’s playing an untested quarterback. However, Baylor is still rebuilding after last year’s 1-11 record and hasn’t been overly convincing against lesser teams earlier in the year. Meanwhile, Duke has impressed in their first two games, especially on defense. That’s enough for me to take a chance on leaning toward Duke and the points.
While Jones looked like he had turned a corner early in the season, the Blue Devils aren’t in terrible shape with Harris taking over at quarterback. Despite a lack of playing time, Harris has been in the program for a few years and knows the Duke offense. Harris has seen some action in goal-line situations during his career and is a more dangerous runner than Jones, giving the Baylor defense a different type of quarterback to face.
Duke’s biggest problem this season may be a lackluster rushing attack. However, part of that can be attributed to the stout Northwestern defense they faced last week. The Baylor defense, meanwhile, did a nice job of containing the run against UT-San Antonio last week but were gashed a little against FCS Abilene Christian a couple weeks ago. They could be a little vulnerable on the ground, especially with Duke now playing a mobile quarterback. If Duke can get their running game going, it’ll make things a lot easier for Harris, even if he has to do a lot of the running himself.
On the other side of the ball, the Duke defense has been excellent this season. They gave up a long drive against Northwestern to start last week’s game but clamped down on the Wildcats after that. The Blue Devils did a nice job of bending but not breaking, a strategy that could also work well against Baylor.
The Bears are still trying to figure out their quarterback situation heading into the third game of the season. Charlie Brewer saw most of the snaps last week against UT-San Antonio, but Rhule says he also plans to give grad transfer Jalan McClendon playing time. Clearly, Rhule isn’t yet sold on Brewer, despite his success against lower-level teams.
In Brewer’s defense, he threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns during last week’s win. But again, that came against a team with inferior talent. The Bears also struggled to generate a consistent rushing attack against UT-San Antonio, which doesn’t bode well for them against Duke’s defense.
The Blue Devils kept Northwestern under 100 rushing yards last week, in part because they collected four sacks. The Blue Devils were also able to force a couple turnovers. That kind of defensive productivity against Northwestern is commendable, especially on the road. It shows that the Blue Devils can match up against power conference teams defensively, even away from home.
The fact that Duke beat a power conference team on the road last week while Baylor has been good but not great against lesser teams makes me confident in the Blue Devils. I think Harris will be fine, especially if he gets plenty of support from the Duke defense. I expect this game to be much lower scoring than Baylor’s games early in the season. Even if Baylor wins, I don’t see them being able to pull away. That makes me comfortable leaning toward the underdog Blue Devils and the points in this game.