In the TV show and comic-book series The Walking Dead, the “Governor” is a nasty villain who presents a lot of problems. The football nickname “Governors” presents challenges for the online-betting tout as well, since the “s” in a plural nickname must often be removed. “The Governor Attack” sounds more like a problem with a Go-Kart engine than a description of a running and passing game.
But the Austin Peay Governors do not appear to present many problems for the UCF Knights. Central Florida is currently at an unbeaten 6-0, ranked in the top 25 and whipping through a tough AAC schedule. Bookies are so skeptical of this game being a contest that many casinos are not offering odds or betting – however, those markets that are available have set the point spread at an astronomical (-44.5) points or close to that number.
Wagering on such a massive underdog can be fun – after all, it’s the equivalent of having 6 touchdowns plus a field goal spotted to you before the kickoff. But the ATS result of a cupcake vs contender is sometimes more about where the better team is physically and psychologically going-in.
Who: Austin Peay Governors at UCF Knights
When: Saturday, October 28th, 5 PM EST
Where: Bright House Networks Stadium, Orlando, FL
Line: Austin Peay (+44.5) at UCF (-44.5)
The 18th-ranked Knights are coming off several powerhouse performances in a row, having whipped Memphis by 26 points just a few weekends ago. Last Saturday, the Orlandoans knocked off a tough Navy team 31-21. QB McKenzie Milton and tailback Adrian Killins Jr. are each having out-of-this-world seasons with a great supporting cast.
There is not much chance of a “trap” game letdown, as next week brings a modest challenge against SMU.
But more books would be offering a market – and perhaps at shorter odds – if odds-makers didn’t have such short memories. Austin Peay is an FCS team with a 5-3 record, but they opened the season against 2 FBS schools, playing competitively in both losses. In Week 1, the Governors played the Cincinnati Bearcats and were in it all the way, rushing for 224 yards and scoring 2 touchdowns.
There are 3 equally-likely possibilities – UCF will play a marvelous game, shut down the Peay running game and win something like 55-0; the Knights will have a slow start and Peay will hang around for 2 or 3 quarters, or Central Florida will race out to a big lead but allow a few points in both halves, winning by 30 or 40 points.
2 outta 3 ain’t bad. Place your bet on the Governors to lose by less than 45 – and hope those eye-patches don’t get in the way of catching deep throws.