The most compelling game of the college football opening weekend might be the showdown between the no. 11 Oregon Ducks and no. 16 Auburn Tigers. The fun gets started at 7:30 EST on Saturday, August 31, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game will be broadcast nationally on ABC.
Oddsmakers list the Tigers as 3-point favorites for this neutral-site game with an over/under of 57 points. Be sure to check out a full list of the Week 1 college football odds.
Auburn coach Gus Malzahn finds himself on the hot seat heading into the 2019 season. Malzahn has guided the Tigers to incredible highs during his tenure as head coach, reaching the national championship game in 2013 and taking the Tigers to the SEC Championship Game just two seasons ago.
However, the Auburn fanbase has little patience and last year’s 8-5 campaign wasn’t close to good enough. The Tigers were 3-5 in SEC play and lost all four rivalry games they played. They were a top-10 team at the start of the season but finished unranked, which is unacceptable at Auburn. Not even a blowout win over Purdue in the Music City Bowl salvaged the season. If Malzahn loses the season opener to Oregon, the heat on Malzahn’s seat will only continue to increase.
Meanwhile, Oregon will be relatively satisfied with their first full season under Mario Cristobal. The Ducks were just 5-4 in Pac-12 play, finishing a disappointing fourth in the North division. But they won their bowl game over Michigan State to finish 9-4, setting the stage bigger things in 2019.
Obviously, beating Auburn won’t help them to reach the Pac-12 Championship Game, which is Oregon’s top priority this season. But a win over the Tigers would make a statement to the rest of the Pac-12 North, a division with four ranked teams that all think they have a chance to play in the conference title game.
As most fans know, this game is a rematch of the 2010 BCS National Championship Game. Behind Cam Newton, Auburn won that game 22-19 to claim the national championship. That game is the only time Oregon and Auburn have met on the football field.
I’ll be honest, I should know better than to bet against an SEC team in an opening-weekend, neutral-site, primetime game. They always seem to win these games, right? But I can’t help but drink the Oregon Kool-Aid heading into the season. The Ducks seem to be poised for a big year, and the fact that they’re the underdogs in this game makes it a little easier for me to lean toward Oregon.
It all starts with quarterback Justin Herbert. He would have been the favorite to go first overall in the NFL Draft if he had left school after last season. If nothing else, there’s no way he would have fallen outside the top-10. He’s a big-time talent with Heisman potential and a big reason why Oregon could end up being favored in every game they play this season. Herbert will surely be the best player on the field at AT&T Stadium on Saturday.
But Oregon has a lot more than Herbert going for it on offense. The Ducks have an offensive line that has over 150 combined starts, which should allow Herbert to sit comfortably in the pocket. That group will also create holes for 1,000-yard rusher CJ Verdell and change-of-pace back Travis Dye. The Ducks are also looking good at wide receiver, especially with Penn State grad transfer Juwan Johnson joining the team.
Naturally, the Oregon offense will face one of their biggest challenges of the year when they play the Auburn defense. The Tigers are loaded on the defensive line, which should make for a fascinating matchup against Oregon’s experienced offensive line. Auburn also has elite safeties in Jeremiah Dinson and Daniel Thomas protecting the back end of the defense. I don’t expect the Ducks to run wild against the Auburn defense, but Oregon will score enough points to put pressure on Auburn’s offense.
Therein lies the problem for the Tigers. Quarterback Jarrett Stidham may have had an up and down season in 2018, but he’ll still be difficult to replace, especially with last year’s backup Malik Willis transferring. True freshman Bo Nixon will get the start against Oregon and whether or not Malzahn fully trusts him in such a big game remains to be seen. On top of that, the Tigers lost their top two receivers from last year and weren’t exactly consistent on the offensive line in 2018. In other words, the supporting cast around Nixon has a lot to prove, which is far from ideal with a true freshman at quarterback.
Ultimately, it’s up to the Auburn defense to keep Herbert and the Oregon offense contained. If not, I don’t see the Tigers keeping up in a shootout. Of course, even if the game is close in the 4th quarter, I have a lot more faith in Herbert to make the right plays than Nixon. I like the Ducks to win this game straight-up, even as slight underdogs.