Free NCAAF Betting Prediction Against the Spread: Auburn vs Mississippi State

The no. 7 Auburn Tigers will face another stern test in the SEC West this week when they host the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 EST on Saturday, September 28 at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Alabama. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.

Oddsmakers list the Tigers as 11-point favorites at home with an over/under of 47.5 points. Click here to check out all of this week’s college football betting odds.

Auburn vs Mississippi State Betting Preview & Vegas Game Odds

Auburn is riding high after last week’s road win over Texas A&M in their SEC opener. With a neutral site win over Oregon also on their resume, the Tigers have climbed from no. 16 in the polls at the start of the season up to no. 7. Gus Malzahn has shown that last year’s disappointing season was a temporary setback, as he has Auburn back in the national conversation.

Of course, despite impressive wins over Oregon and Texas A&M on their resume, Auburn’s toughest games are still ahead of them. The Tigers still have to play four teams currently ranked in the top-10, starting with a trip to Florida next week. Auburn could probably absorb a loss in one of those games and remain in the College Football Playoff picture. But they probably can’t afford to lose to an unranked Mississippi State team.

As for the Bulldogs, they’re hoping to make it two wins in a row to begin SEC play. Mississippi State took care of business last week against Kentucky, winning at home 28-13. Following a home loss to Kansas State the previous week, it was vital for the Bulldogs to get back on track quickly, especially with three top-10 teams left on their schedule.

It was even more impressive for MSU to win last week with starting quarterback Tommy Stevens sidelined. Stevens practiced a little last week but wasn’t able to play against Kentucky because of an ongoing shoulder issue that limited him during the loss to Kansas State. It’s still unclear whether Stevens will be able to play against Auburn or if backup Garrett Shrader will get the nod again.

The Bulldogs have had some surprising success against Auburn in recent years, including a 23-9 win in Starkville last year. MSU has taken four of their last seven head-to-head meetings with the Tigers. However, they have just one win in their last five trips to Jordan-Hare Stadium. That includes a 49-10 thumping Malzahn and the Tigers handed the Bulldogs two years ago.

Free College Football Betting Selection: Auburn -11

This will be Auburn’s first big home game of the season, and I think the fans will create a hostile environment for the visiting Bulldogs. Granted, Auburn’s two big wins this year have come by single digits, but I think the Tigers are poised for a breakout game at home. I have some questions about Mississippi State, so I’ll lean toward Auburn to win going away and cover.

If I had to make an educated guess, I’d say that Stevens isn’t going to play this week. He just didn’t look right when he played against Kansas State a couple of weeks ago. I have a feeling he’s not going to be ready to go so soon. Even if he does play, it’s a safe assumption that he’s not going to be 100%, which is why I think the Bulldogs are going to end up going with Shrader at quarterback.

For what it’s worth, Shrader had a nice outing against Kentucky last week. He wasn’t great, only amassing 180 yards passing and throwing an interception. But he did complete 17 of his 22 passes. More importantly, he adds a lot to the Mississippi State rushing attack, which is already lethal with Kylin Hill, who is averaging over six yards per carry on the season. The Bulldogs are probably better off with Stevens, who has the arm strength to create explosive plays through the air. But MSU proved last week that they can get by just fine with Shrader.

However, Auburn is one of the few teams in the SEC that can take full advantage of Stevens being absent. The Tigers have a monstrous defensive line that limited Texas A&M to 56 rushing yards last week while sacking Kellen Mond three times last week. Auburn was even able to hold Oregon to under 100 yards rushing the opening week of the season. Keep in mind the Ducks have one of the best offensive lines in the country. Despite how good Hill and Shrader are running the ball, the Tigers have a chance to slow them down. If Stevens doesn’t play and the Bulldogs can’t run the ball, they’ll be in deep trouble.

The X-factor, of course, is the Auburn offense, who’s led by true freshman Bo Nix. Outside of the blowout win over Kent State, the Tigers haven’t scored more than 28 points this year. Nix doesn’t complete a high percentage of his passes, and so the Auburn offense can be a little limited at times, even with a good rushing attack that’s been consistent this year.

Ultimately, I’ll trust the Auburn defense to make this a comfortable win for the Tigers. I just don’t think the Bulldogs will be able to put many points on the board. Even if the Auburn offense hits the wall at around 28 points again, that should be enough for the Tigers to cover the 11-point spread.

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