What is it Napoleon Wilson says in Assault on Precinct 13? “I was born outta time.”
Heck, everything in me is screaming for an emotional, heartfelt recap of the Army Black Knights’ season so far. Like a lot of folks who cheer for underdog teams and unique offenses, I had a reaction to the Army-Michigan finish of Week 2 that had little to do with reason or logic.
“Ugh. Good God, Army almost had them.”
The Black Knights were already on borrowed time in OT, after blundering and turning the ball over on the goal line with a 14-7 lead late in the contest. Michigan’s offense was struggling to produce all day, but you don’t generally travel to the Big House and win making that kind of mistake at the worst possible time.
Still, the fact that the Wolverines vs Black Knights overtime held much of America spellbound early on Saturday afternoon stands to show how far the Army program has come under coach Jeff Monken. Everyone knows you can build a strong Flexbone-option offense at a service academy – the ex-GaSo guru has actually built a terrific defense and special teams at West Point.
I’d like to weep tears of regret and sing the praises of Army – but that wouldn’t be fair to BetFirm readers. You’re not just interested in what happened in Ann Arbor last weekend, but mostly interested in what will happen next.
Don’t worry – I’ve got an angle on the betting lines. Call it an “exclusive” angle, because I haven’t seen it touched-on in any previews of Saturday’s Army at UTSA contest yet.
But the tragedy (from West Point’s POV) of the loss at Michigan also has to do with the 2019 Army schedule, which…let’s just say you’d expect a team capable of beating UM on the road to go ahead and just go undefeated. West Point wasn’t just close to an upset…it was close to turning the FBS world upside down.
Now that the dream of 13-0 (and a likely New Year’s Six bid) is probably over, how will Monken’s roster react?
Who: Army Black Knights at University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners
When: Saturday, September 14th, 3:30 PM EST
Where: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Lines: Army (-17.5) at UTSA (+17.5) / O/U Total: (45)
We can now classify a certain type of service academy vs Power-5 result, or more specifically, service academy vs elite-level Power-5 program result. Navy upset Houston in 2016 just as the Cougars had pierced the Top 10, but a much bigger sample-size of outcomes is available in the “close but no cigar” category in which the academy loses while the favorite barely survives.
Army and Navy have a knack of playing with national contenders for 4 quarters (or longer) without either team forging a substantial lead, though the marquee program almost always wins because the academy’s margin-of-error is so much smaller. Navy gave Ohio State 2 memorable close calls in Columbus over the past decade, and West Point took Oklahoma to the brink last season.
We know that programs like West Point and Annapolis have a special kind of psychology to go along with a special kind of ball-control offense. The cadets literally pour everything they have into big games. How do the academy teams tend to fare the week after 1 of these reoccurring almost-triumphs vs the Top 10?
Navy followed up its 2009 and 2014 barn-burners at OSU with nice wins over Louisiana Tech and Temple respectively, but each Ohio State-Navy contest was a Week 1 opener that the Middies were psychologically prepared to lose. In more recent cases, Navy has struggled ATS following close-call losses to Notre Dame and UCF. Air Force won 3 in a row after falling to OU by 3 points in 2010, but only covered ATS once, and lost to 2 quality opponents in a row after that.
So the service academy kids are getting spent, and not faring all too well after the big letdowns. Since Monken has taken over at Army, the Black Knights followed a 6-point loss in Happy Valley with a dreadful performance vs Duke. It’s the sort of outcome that you’d expect from a passionate group of kids who reached their limit and fell short.
But that was in 2015. Look at how Army responded to the Oklahoma loss last season – by destroying eventual MAC runner-up Buffalo 42-13. This West Point team is a little different, though the threat of fatigue remains.
The Roadrunners have a decent dual-threat QB in Frank Harris, and should be able to produce enough points to make it interesting. But as much as I think the anomaly of last season’s West Point blow-out of Buffalo is leading gamblers to push the Army-UTSA point spread too far, the Over is a better gamble – on a total that has been falling based on the Black Knights’ ability to stop an oft-overrated and too-intense-for-its-own good Michigan offense.
Take Over (45) at the Alamodome.