The problem with analyzing mid-majors for betting value is that they tend to play a lot of other mid-majors.
If the handicapper gets an inkling that a Group of 5 school is as powerful blocking and tackling, as speedy in the open field, and as skilled at QB as most Power-5 contenders, then that school may be line-forecasted as a true favorite throughout most of its conference schedule. But what happens when somebody loses to a P5 in their OOC schedule, then begins to romp everyone in the underclass?
There is no one perfect metric for weighing the strength of conference vs OOC opponents when you consider it’s never static – teams play good and bad games. Scores can get out of hand if one side gets tired, even though it was an even fight much of the way. That happened to Boise State in its venture against Oklahoma State earlier this season. No matter what BSU does now, Vegas will have a hard time trusting the Broncos against a Top 25 program from a major conference if such a bowl match-up occurs.
Bottom line – early September games might amount to preparation for schools like Alabama and Ohio State, but they’re a real big deal for mid-majors. To earn respect, you must knock off a Power-5 team on the rare occasion you get the opportunity to play them.
Or you can do what Appalachian State did – take a Top 10 Penn State team to the absolute brink in one of the most thrilling season openers in recent memory. Echoes of that contest are showing up in the Vegas point spread even as it’s several weeks later, and the Mountaineers are facing a perilous road trip to visit Sun Belt power Arkansas State.
Who: Appalachian State Mountaineers at Arkansas State Red Wolves
When: Tuesday, October 9th, 8 PM EST
Where: Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR
Lines: App St (-8.5) at Ark St (+8.5) / O/U Total: None
It can be argued that Appalachian State helped usher-in a new modern era of college football when it beat Michigan as an unheralded FCS school. But in some ways, this season’s Week 1 OT battle with the Nittany Lions was the work of a program that has grown up tall since its last shocker against the Big Ten.
The Mountaineers out-gained Penn State. Visiting signal-caller Zac Thomas had a better day than Trace McSorley, who was sacked by sophomore DL Demetrius Taylor and hurried 5 other times. It didn’t look like a speedy finesse team from the FCS just scraping-by with a bunch of good bounces against Penn State.
It looked, scarily enough, like 2 evenly-matched schools duking it out. More from HC Press:
Appalachian State still had a chance to win the game in regulation. Staton had enough distance on a 56-yard field goal attempt, but the kick sailed wide to the right with 15 seconds left.
The Nittany Lions (1-0) scored in overtime on a 4-yard touchdown run by Miles Sanders. Then after Appalachian State running back Darrynton Evans narrowly converted a fourth-and-1 to the 15, quarterback Zac Thomas, who had torched the Nittany Lions secondary the whole game, again looked to the end zone. This time, Penn State cornerback Amani Oruwariye made an acrobatic interception in the end zone to end the game.
Appalachian State finished with 451 total yards, 17 more than the Nittany Lions. Senior linebacker Anthony Flory made a team-high nine tackles to lead the Mountaineer defense. Fellow inside linebacker Jordan Fehr contributed eight tackles in his first start.
“That (this game) was a resounding yes that we won’t back down, we will keep fighting,” Appalachian State head coach Scott Satterfield said. “That’s the heart of our program for the last 30 years. (At least) since I’ve been here.
Since then, the Mountaineers have held 3 lesser opponents to single-digits while putting up an average of well over 50+ points per contest.
Not to disrespect Arkansas State, which has had a fine football program for many years. The Red Wolves are a mean opponent at home and are always a threat to win the Sun Belt. The team came close to besting a rejuvenated Georgia Southern squad in their last outing.
But the Red Wolves must keep the ball out of Thomas’s hands, or the crowd at Centennial Bank will lose some of its trademark roar just as the circus begins. Arkansas State only rushed for 3.3 ypc against GaSo and can hardly hope to improve on that number vs a defense that gave up less than 100 yards to Miles Sanders, despite the standout junior getting his 2nd-most number of carries on the season to date.
Imagine if Appalachian State was a Power-5 school. They opened the year by losing a heart-breaker to a fellow powerhouse, then killed a bunch of smaller programs Alabama-style for several weeks in a row. Top 15 material? Oh yeah. App State’s 2018 squad is underrated thanks to preseason polls and assumption-making.
The Mountaineers should be ranked highly, while power-pollsters would be fair to keep the Red Wolves about where they are.
Take App State to cover (-8.5) on Tuesday.