The Ole Miss Rebels will try to shake off their season-opening loss when they begin SEC play this week against the Arkansas Razorbacks. The game is scheduled to kick off at 7:30 EST on Saturday, September 7 at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi. Fans can watch the game on the SEC Network.
According to our Week 2 odds, the Rebels are 6.5-point favorites at home. The over/under for the game is set at 55 points.
Matt Luke’s third season at Ole Miss didn’t get off to the kind of start he was hoping for. The Rebels took a short road trip north to Memphis but went home with a 15-10 loss. Ole Miss was more than doubled in total yards, finishing the game with just 173 yards of offense. Even against a mid-major with a good history, it was a game Ole Miss was expecting to win.
The Rebels are done with their postseason ban and can go to a bowl game this year if they get to six wins. But that task just became a lot more difficult after losing to Memphis. At this point, the path to a bowl game would become awfully narrow if the Rebels lose to Arkansas, forcing Ole Miss into an early must-win game.
Meanwhile, Arkansas got off to a good start in their second season under Chad Morris. Well, it was good in the sense that the Razorbacks won, which is a step in the right direction after finishing 2-10 last year. However, the Hogs were unconvincing against FCS opponent Portland State, only winning 20-13.
Much like Ole Miss, the Razorbacks see getting to a bowl game as their first priority this season. Arkansas surely views this game as winnable and one that they surely need to win if they want to have a chance to get to six wins.
Of course, this is a rather intense rivalry, so pride and bragging rights are at stake in addition to both teams needing this win in the big picture. Ole Miss won last year’s meeting 37-33, snapping a four-game winning streak for Arkansas in the rivalry. More importantly, the last four games in this series have all been decided by four points or less, so this is usually a tight game.
The recent history in this series says that this game is going to be close, so I’m going to get on board with that. I also think Ole Miss has far more problems than people realized coming into the season. The Rebels will likely struggle to score points, which will make it difficult to cover the spread. I’ll lean toward Arkansas to beat the spread, and I wouldn’t count out a Razorbacks win.
There was optimism for the Ole Miss offense heading into the season after former West Virginia and Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez was hired as offensive coordinator. But that’s all the Rebels have going for them on the offensive side of the ball. Ole Miss is starting redshirt freshman Matt Corral at quarterback in addition to losing most of their top receivers from a season ago. It showed in the season opener against Memphis, as Corral was just nine for 19 passing for a measly 93 yards.
Ole Miss was at least hoping that running back Scottie Phillips could help carry the offense after rushing for over 900 yards and 12 touchdowns last year. But he managed just 62 yards on 19 carries against Memphis, in part because the Ole Miss offensive line struggled and in part because Memphis didn’t have to respect the Ole Miss passing game. Even if the Arkansas defense is still young and rebuilding, they bring back the same system and many of the same players from last season. To me, that means the Razorbacks will have some success defensively against the Rebels, who are short on talent and adjusting to Rodriguez’s scheme.
On the other side of the ball, the Arkansas offense was underwhelming in the season opener, only scoring 20 points against an FCS opponent. To be honest, I was surprised at how much they struggled. SMU grad transfer Ben Hicks won the starting quarterback job. I figured he would be comfortable with the offense after playing under Morris at SMU. For what it’s worth, the Razorbacks had success running the ball, gaining over 200 yards on the ground, which is a positive. I also think we can expect to see better out of Hicks moving forward.
Defensively, the Rebels held their own against Memphis, a team that can usually light up the scoreboard. But the Tigers also lost a lot from last season, so they may be going through some growing pains too, with Ole Miss being the beneficiary. I’m not yet fully convinced that the Ole Miss defense can replicate that kind of performance, especially if Hicks can get going a little.
All things considered, this game seems like it will be a defensive slugfest, which will be a change from past meetings between Arkansas and Ole Miss. Both teams are in rough shape offensively after their season opener, but I think Arkansas has a little more upside with Hicks at quarterback. That’s enough for me to think the Razorbacks can at least beat the spread.