Okay, armchair handicappers, let’s put it all out there.
Week 1 NCAAF betting odds show that the UTSA Roadrunners are more than 18-point underdogs against the Arizona State Sun Devils this Saturday night. Seems like an interesting point-spread betting opportunity. But don’t even think of placing that wager…unless you know why.
You bet. To win. The wager. You don’t bet, just to wager it. You bet! To win! The wager!
Yes, ladies and gentlemen, a pep talk like that can only mean one thing – Herman Edwards is coaching football again. Coaching the Arizona State Sun Devils, in fact.
How did this happen even in the crazy universe of 2018? Well, it wasn’t because the Sun Devils were ice-cold choir boys on the field. ASU was 7-6 and appeared in a bowl game in 2017, falling to North Carolina State 52-31 in the Hyundai Sun Bowl.
Instead, Sun Devil boosters are hoping that Edwards is the man to take the team to another level. Hopefully a level above, not below, where the better-than-average program stands now.
Conference-USA opponent Texas San-Antonio will be the first test for the new Tempe regime. The Roadrunners did not reach a bowl game last season, though the program has not suffered a losing regular season since 2015.
Who: UTSA Roadrunners at Arizona State Sun Devils
When: Saturday, September 1st, 10:30 PM EST
Where: Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, AZ
Lines: UTSA (+18 1/2) at ASU (-18 1/2) / O/U Total: (53 1/2)
As I wrote in a Pac-12 season preview a few weeks back:
I’m skeptical that Edwards is destined for success in the FBS. Not necessarily because he hasn’t coached there, but because as good a quote and as popular a media celebrity as “Herm” became while working in New York and later at ESPN, he just doesn’t contribute any new ideas.
Even his iconic quotes and pep talks have a warmed-over quality to them. When faced with a losing streak, he tends to get angry and indignant as opposed to creative.
ASU will likely run a cookie-cutter offense and continue to give up big plays on defense. Edwards will yell about it, and then it will happen again.
It’s not as if the celebrity coach won’t have any material to work with. ASU is a legitimate Power-5 program. Manny Wilkins is a 3000+ yard/season QB who will be targeting the excellent N’Keal Harry. Merlin Robertson, maybe the most dynamic and physically imposing NJCAA linebacker of 2017-18, arrives at ASU as a junior. The defensive backfield struggled in ’17 but a worthy pass rush could help things to improve.
Still, I’m thinking Herman Edwards would be a better choice at a mid-major underdog or a P5 program which has been in the doldrums, as opposed to being hired to coach a team that is already expected to win. At a down-trodden program Edwards’ NFL background and fiery motivational sermons could help lift a struggling offense, defense, or special teams unit up off the ground.
But when it comes to the fine details of taking a Power-5 contender and getting them over the hump against Washington, Stanford, and USC? Clever soundbites and dramatic stunts will not make that a reality, except for maybe stunting Robertson on a down or 2.
I’m liking the Roadrunners to win 6+ games for the 3rd consecutive season.
Marcus Davenport has left for the NFL, but senior Kevin Strong looks poised to pick up some of the slack by wreaking havoc on the inside for a highly-competitive UTSA defense. Texas San-Antonio’s special teams units have a high ceiling due to the school’s splendid corps of linebackers. But the offense has struggled to put up points, as evidenced by dreary losses like “Louisiana Tech 20, Roadrunners 6” in 2017.
The offense is capable of making noise against a Pac-12 unit by handing-off to Jalen Rhodes and patiently waiting for opportunities. That can also be a recipe for getting blown-out in mid-major vs P5 contests. But ASU isn’t likely to play a wild, blitzing defense in the 1st half given the hosts’ recent woes in the secondary. Running the ball will mean moving the sticks for both teams, which leads logically into a valuable pick on the over while increasing value on the underdog to cover a massive point spread.
But if the Roadrunners live up to their name, and run the ball a lot against ASU on the road, doesn’t that mean the clock will run faster and over (53 1/2) becomes a bet bound to lose?
Maybe. But I’m liking the over based on another factor. Edwards has been involved in media long enough to know that every week, every day ASU is mentioned as a potential Top 25 team or Pac-12 champion on national TV is free advertising for his new program – targeted at new recruits. His new program is expected to beat UTSA by around 3 touchdowns in Edwards’ maiden college game as a head coach.
He won’t want to win by 2 points, you can bank on that.
I won’t recommend a bet on ASU to cover, because I think the visitors are slightly underrated, and the hosts’ much-ballyhooed new HC is slightly overrated. But if this contest is say, 30-19 in favor of Arizona State with 5 minutes left and the Sun Devils hold the ball at midfield? Forget running out the clock. They’ll try to run it up.
With Wilkins and a strong supporting cast working hard for as many points as possible, and an above-average C-USA squad fighting hard to keep up, I’m sensing close to a 60% chance that the over wins the O/U.
Take the over (53 1/2) points in Tempe on Saturday night. Or, for bettors who take more pleasure in cheering for one side, the UTSA Roadrunners are a solid pick ATS so long as the number is above (+17).