Where have you gone, vaunted Stanford running game? A fan base turns its lonely eyes to you.
Entering the 2018-19 season, the ground-and-pound was what everyone thought the Cardinal offense would hang its hat on. Bryce Love was an odds-on Heisman favorite at CFB betting boards, coming off a 2100-yard junior season in which he averaged 8.1 ypc.
This season, through 4 games (he’s missed 2 games with injury), Love has accumulated only 327 yards on 4.3 yards per carry. The team is 127th in the FBS in rushing. Love did not play in last week’s demoralizing 40-21 loss to Utah due to another ankle injury, but will try to play this week against Arizona State. Still the Cardinal is reeling after a promising start that included a comeback win over Oregon in Eugene.
The point spread doesn’t seem to reflect Love’s presence as much as it does the sudden drop-off of the NorCal squad’s sudden drop-off in effectiveness on both sides of the ball.
Who: Stanford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils
When: Thursday, October 18th, 9 PM EST
Where: Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, AZ
Lines: Stanford (-2.5) at ASU (+2.5) / O/U Total: None
A downer loss in which everything goes wrong for a program (see: Utah) can be responsible for big line-forecasting and betting odds disruption the following weekend. But if Stanford was looking great and just happened to lose to Utah, it’d be different. Coach David Shaw is without a dominant RB (at least until Love reaches 100% health) and without a dominant defense, searching for answers and a enough bright spots to stem the tide.
K.J. Costello has been a bright spot for the 4-2 Cardinals. Costello has thrown an efficient deep ball on the season, completing 58% of passes over 20 yards for 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Costello’s favorite target is JJ Arcega-Whiteside; the senior is averaging 18.0 yards per reception (a credit to Costello’s deep ball) and has 8 touchdowns on the season.
Despite giving up 40 points at Utah last week, Stanford’s defense hasn’t appeared to fall apart. The surprising (at least it would be a shock to anyone who time-traveled from 3 weeks ago) point spread reflects skepticism that a battered Love can shoot through holes created by a sagging OL>
The Herman Edwards era in Tempe got off to a hot start, with the team blowing out UTSA then beating #15 Michigan State at home. But since the 2-0 start, the Sun Devils have dropped 3 of their last 4 games, the only win coming against 1-4 Oregon State.
What changed? Well, opposing coaches are no longer scared of ASU’s weapons on offense. The Sun Devils aren’t bad with the football, they’re just in the middle of the pack in every category. The ASU offense ranks 61st in passing, 65th in rushing, and 65th in points.
Opposing defenses tend to key in on N’Keal Harry, the 6’4” junior WR who is projected to go early in the NFL draft. But he’s got some developing left to do. Harry hasn’t recorded more than 100 receiving yards in a contest since Week 1 against UTSA.
ASU’s strength is also on the defensive side of the ball, where they are allowing only 21.2 points per game and have not given up more than 28 points all season. When an O/U total is set for this one, it will likely be respectful of the 2 defenses, despite each team’s overall stock slipping.
Playing against a good defense could be bad news for Stanford, given the disappointing performance of the Cardinal OL over the past couple of Saturdays.
More on the Tree’s troubles (and a suggestion to fix them) from Rule of Tree:
When the Kansas City Chiefs struggled early against the Denver Broncos pass rush, they kept three extra blockers in and sent just two players downfield.
The Cardinal could deploy a similar strategy if they want to keep Costello in the pocket. Play action off a simple draw, while keeping the tight ends in on the edge to assist the tackles, would give Costello much needed protection. The added blockers would let Stanford’s two receivers run deeper routes, allowing plays to truly develop and letting big wideouts cause havoc on the outside.
For each of these, the critical thing is abandoning the idea that the Cardinal should forget the run altogether. No team should try to leave balance by the wayside. But the Cardinal are also a mere few tweaks from success with the talent on their offense. Some version of these play types injected into the scheme might shake things up enough for them to find success.
With the weak offensive line play, Costello needs to get out of the pocket and in space, while finding tight ends downfield. A deep boot-leg would pair the best of both last years success and this season’s silver lining.
My response to that is that either the offensive line is weak OR the offense is a “few tweaks from success.” It can’t be both, because if Stanford’s blocking collapses then there goes the neighborhood.
Certain well-coached teams tend to get “sick” for a few games at a time. Stanford has been really good over the past 2 years, but every time the Cardinal collapses, it takes a game or 2 to get it back on track.
Shaw will most likely let Costello throw deep early, trying to open up the ASU defense. That turns the 1st half into a crap-shoot.
If Stanford leads at half, they should be able to get the ground game going through repetition, and will have an excellent chance to win. If ASU leads at half? I’ve been one of the brave few to question whether Herman Edwards can really instill confidence within a program – or just install a lot of catchy slogans and soundbites. He still has to prove to me that there’s substance under the charade.
Take the Cardinal to cover (-2.5).