Two teams fighting for position inside the Pac-12 will meet this weekend as the Arizona Wildcats host the California Golden Bears. Game time is 10:00 EST on Saturday, October 6, at Arizona Stadium in Tucson. Fans can watch the game nationally on FS1.
This week’s college football odds list Arizona as 1.5-point favorites. However, early betting has favored Cal, as the Wildcats opened the week as 2.5-point favorites.
The Wildcats began the season with plans to make some noise in the Pac-12 South this year, but they have been held largely quiet through the first month of the season. Arizona began the season with a pair of surprising losses to BYU and Houston. They appeared to be moving in the direction after picking up a road win against Oregon State in their Pac-12 opener. However, the Cats then fell flat at home last week against USC, falling behind 24-0 before scoring 20 unanswered points to make the game seem closer than it was.
Despite all of that, Arizona still has everything to play for this season. The Pac-12 South may be the most wide-open division in college football, so one conference loss is not the end of the world. Obviously, being 2-3 overall isn’t ideal. However, if the Wildcats can get things turned around, they can still reach the top of the South division. Of course, it’s crucial that they get a home win this week against Cal.
As for the Golden Bears, they are hoping to bounce back from last week’s loss to Oregon, their first blemish of the season. Cal got off to a 3-0 start, including wins over North Carolina and BYU. However, they couldn’t quite keep up with the Ducks last week, which could be an indicator of trouble ahead in conference play.
Unfortunately for Cal, competing in the Pac-12 North isn’t quite the same as the South division. It’s a much stronger division and the Bears will have to be perfect the rest of the season to win the North division. However, a win over Arizona would put them at 4-1 and in a great position to qualify for their first bowl game since 2015.
The Golden Bears would also like to get their first win over Arizona since 2009. The teams have only played four times since then, but the Wildcats have won all four. That being said, all four games have been tight, including a 45-44 win for the Wildcats last season, so this figures to be a close game as well.
It’s tough to get a good read on either of these teams. Both have flashed plenty of promise this season, but both have also had rather puzzling moments. In the end, I’ll lean toward Arizona being able to cover a small spread as the home team.
The biggest problem I’ve seen with Cal this season is their propensity for turning the ball over. They’ve turned the ball over 10 times in their last three games, including five last week against Oregon. The Golden Bears escaped with a win in their season opener against North Carolina in part because they didn’t turn the ball over. Unless they can avoid the turnovers that plagued them last week, it’ll be tough for Cal to win games in the Pac-12.
Even without turning the ball over, the Cal offense isn’t particularly explosive. The Golden Bears are still flip-flopping quarterbacks between Chase Garbers and Brandon McIlwain. Garbers, a freshman, is a better passer, but he’s yet to settle in and look comfortable this season. McIlwain, meanwhile, helps an otherwise modest Cal rushing attack. But it’s going to be tough to trust him as a passer when the competition level increases during conference play.
Arizona, on the other hand, hasn’t had a huge problem with turnovers this year. Instead, the Wildcats have struggled to find consistency on offense. For the amount of yardage they’re racking up, they should be scoring more points. The Arizona offense is capable of scoring quickly and scoring in bunches. But the Wildcats have also shown a propensity for extended cold spells, which is part of the reason why two of their losses this year have come by less than a touchdown.
However, I’m going to put a little faith in the Wildcats to get their act together this week, especially after the Cal defense gave up some big plays against Oregon last week. Even with quarterback Khalil Tate doing a lot less running than last season, the Wildcats have had a productive rushing attack this year. Both J.J. Taylor and Gary Brightwell are averaging more than five yards per carry, giving Tate plenty of support. While inconsistent at times, Tate is at least capable of helping Arizona create big plays in the passing game, which is not something that can be said of Cal’s two quarterbacks.
To be honest, there are dozens of different ways that this game could unfold. Both of these teams are a little unpredictable, and not always in good ways. However, the Wildcats have a little more upside offensively. They’re also the home team, which makes me a little more comfortable leaning toward Arizona in this game.