The Ole Miss Rebels have the misfortune of being the team on no. 2 Alabama’s schedule this week. Things get started at 3:30 EST on Saturday, September 28 at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. The game will be nationally televised on CBS.
The Crimson Tide are currently listed as massive 37.5-point favorites at home, a line that has continued to grow during the week. The over/under for the contest is set at 60 points. Click here for a full list of this week’s college football schedule and betting odds.
For the most part, the Crimson Tide has rolled this season without much interruption. They failed to cover in a 24-point win at South Carolina a couple of weeks ago, but that’s been the only setback for Nick Saban’s team thus far. Through four games, Alabama is winning games by an average of just over 39 points.
Of course, it’s not going to stay like that all season. Playing in the SEC West means plenty of difficult games. However, the Crimson Tide has just three ranked teams on their schedule. The two most difficult teams on their schedule are LSU and Auburn, but the Tide won’t play either until November. That means Alabama shouldn’t be looking ahead of Ole Miss.
As for the Rebels, they aren’t exactly getting Alabama at a good time. Not that there’s a good time to play the Crimson Tide. Ole Miss is coming off a disappointing home loss to Cal last week. With a loss to Memphis the first week of the season, the Rebels now sit at 2-2 and appear destined to fall under .500 following their trip to Alabama this weekend.
The goal for Ole Miss is simply to make it to a bowl game now that they’re finally eligible after NCAA sanctions. The problem is that Alabama is one of four ranked teams left on their schedule. Barring an upset victory in one of those games, the Rebels will have no margin for error in their remaining games. Even if they know toppling Alabama will be difficult, it’s important for Ole Miss to have a good showing in order to gain confidence for must-win games against Vanderbilt and Missouri in the weeks to come.
Oddly enough, the Rebels are just a few years removed from their last win over Alabama, which came in Tuscaloosa in 2015. However, Ole Miss was ranked no. 15 at the time and has fallen a long way since then. The last two seasons, Alabama has defeated Ole Miss by scores of 66-3 and 62-7, so the Rebels have a lot of ground to make up if they want to make this a competitive game.
Even for Alabama, this is a massive spread to cover. I won’t deny that they’re more than capable of covering this spread. But that doesn’t mean it’s a sure thing. Even for the Crimson Tide, there’s a small margin for error with a large spread like this. If Alabama takes their foot off the gas or Ole Miss shows a little extra fight, the Crimson Tide could fall short of covering 37.5 points. I’ll take my chances on the Rebels being good enough to keep this game within five touchdowns to beat the spread.
Admittedly, the score in this game the past two years worries me. But I think we’ll see some fight in this year’s Ole Miss team. I also think the Rebels have a fair amount of talent, so scoring a touchdown or two isn’t out of the question. Scottie Phillips is a proven running back and Jerrion Ealy has become a nice contributor out of the backfield as well. Meanwhile, freshman quarterback Matt Corral seems to be getting every week. He has Elijah Moore at his disposal, giving the Rebels a downfield threat who’s capable of making plays against the Alabama secondary.
It’s also worth noting that the Ole Miss got a nice preview of the Alabama defense last week when they played Cal. Obviously, Cal isn’t quite at Alabama’s level, but they are still one of the top defensive teams in the country. The Rebels had a decent outing, accumulating over 500 yards of offense without turning the ball over, so I don’t think the Ole Miss offense will be completely helpless against Alabama.
To be fair, the Ole Miss defense is another story. They held both Memphis and Arkansas to less than 20 points, so there’s a little bit of talent on that side of the ball. The thing that worries me is that Alabama has scored no fewer than 42 points in a game this season. Not even a good South Carolina defense was able to keep the Crimson Tide to under 40 points.
Ultimately, I’m betting that the Ole Miss offense will have some success moving the ball and find the end zone a couple of times. That should be enough to keep them within 37.5 points of Alabama. Obviously, this is not a sure thing, as Alabama is capable of blowing out just about any team. But I still think this is too many points to eat in an SEC West rivalry game.