The no. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide will face an interesting test this week when they face the Missouri Tigers. Game time is scheduled for 7:00 EST on Saturday, October 13, at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Fans can watch the game on ESPN.
This week’s college football betting odds list the Crimson Tide as 28-point favorites at home. Be sure to check out a full list of the Week 7 college football odds.
Alabama has been as close to perfect as they can be this season. They are 6-0 with 22 points being their smallest margin of victory. Unlike past years when the Alabama defense led the way, dragging the Crimson Tide offense behind it, Alabama is actually the highest scoring team in the country this. With quarterback Tua Tagovailoa running the show, the Tide is averaging 56 points per game.
It’s actually on defense where Nick Saban has some concerns, Cornerback Trevon Diggs is out for the foreseeable future with a broken foot, an injury that comes on the heels of Alabama’s worst defensive performance of the season. Saban was less than happy after his team gave up 31 points to Arkansas last week. The Crimson Tide will now face the high-powered Missouri offense.
Despite averaging nearly 40 points per game, the Tigers are on the verge of losing their third straight game. Missouri opened the season with three straight wins but has since dropped their first two SEC games to Georgia and South Carolina. Scoring points hasn’t been an issue in those games, but the Missouri defense has had a world of trouble in their last three games.
Assuming Missouri isn’t able to pull off the upset against Alabama, the Tigers will fall to 3-3 and 0-3 in SEC play. Missouri would then need to win three of their final six games to qualify for a bowl game. Even if they won’t win, it’s important for the Tigers to put forth a good effort against Alabama so they can gain some confidence heading into the second half of the season.
This will be just the third meeting between Alabama and Missouri since the Tigers joined the SEC. Neither outing has gone well for Missouri, including the 2014 SEC Championship Game. This will also be the first time that the Tigers visit Tuscaloosa.
Obviously, Missouri has a slim chance of winning this game. However, the question of whether Alabama can cover the 28-point spread is an interesting one with the Crimson Tide facing one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Drew Lock. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Tigers keep this game close, but I still feel better siding with Saban and Alabama. I’ll lean toward the Crimson Tide to cover the 28-point spread.
The fact that Saban was publicly upset about his defense after last week’s game probably points to the Crimson Tide playing better this week. The Alabama defense got a little complacent against Arkansas, and understandably so, after scoring on a pick-six to go up by 41 points. They then allowed Arkansas to score a couple of late touchdowns. However, Saban will force that unit to be a little more focused this week. The Tigers may not benefit from garbage time touchdowns that could help them beat the spread.
That being said, the Missouri offense is good enough to score against Alabama even when the Tide is playing at full effort. Lock is one of the most talented gunslingers in the country, and he has more than enough playmakers around him to give Alabama some trouble. I’d be surprised if the Tigers weren’t able to slip at least two or three touchdowns past the Crimson Tide in this game.
The caveat is that Lock has no touchdown passes and three interceptions in Missouri’s two SEC games against Georgia and South Carolina. That fact is both surprising and concerning for the Tigers, especially since he’s completed less than 50% of his passes in both of those games. To be fair, the Tigers still scored 29 and 35 points in those games, respectively. But the Tigers are going to need Lock at his best this week, and if he had trouble with Georgia and South Carolina, he’s likely to struggle against Alabama.
We also can’t lose sight of the fact that the Alabama offense is also likely to score a lot of points against a weak Missouri defense. In their last three games against Purdue, Georgia, and South Carolina, the Tigers are giving up an average of 39 points. Those results don’t bode well for them heading into a game against the top-scoring team in the country. In six games, Tagovailoa has 18 passing touchdowns, no interceptions, and has been sacked just twice. That more or less sums up everything you need to know about the Alabama offense this season.
If Alabama reaches their average of 56 points, which seems like a fair bet, the Tigers will have to score more than 28 points to beat the spread. That’s a lot to ask of Lock and the Missouri offense, who aren’t likely to get much help from the defense. I know Missouri only lost by two touchdowns against no. 2 Georgia a couple weeks ago, but I still like Alabama to cover the 28-point spread.