The reigning national champion and current no. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide begin their title defense with a neutral site battle against the Louisville Cardinals. Game time is set for 8:00 EST on Saturday, September 1, at Camping World Stadium in Orlando. The game is being broadcast nationally on ESPN. Oddsmakers list Alabama as a 24.5-point favorite over Louisville. For the rest of this week’s odds and links to previews of all the major games click here.
It’s always national championship or bust at Alabama. It doesn’t matter that the Crimson Tide won last year, Nick Saban won’t be happy if his team doesn’t stay hungry for another championship. It’s actually been a few years (2011 and 2012) since Alabama has won back-to-back national championships, so they could be due for a repeat. The Tide also lost out on even reaching the SEC title game last year, so that should keep Saban and company motivated this season as well.
Louisville, meanwhile, is coming off a rather disappointing season in 2017. The Cardinals were 8-4 last year, including a modest 4-4 record in the ACC. Now Bobby Petrino has to find a way to replace former Heisman winner Lamar Jackson and most of the team’s defensive starters. He definitely has a difficult task ahead of him, and he doesn’t have much time to find answers with the Cardinals set to play Alabama in the season opener.
These two schools haven’t met on the football field since 1991, so there isn’t much history between them. Of course, Saban and Petrino are two of the most notorious coaches in college football, so the two programs have a little bit in common.
I’ve been confident for much of the summer that Alabama would blowout Louisville in this game, so I’m definitely going to lean toward the Tide to cover a 24.5-point spread. Let’s be clear, Alabama is far from perfect heading into the season. But they’ve had the best recruiting class in the country the last five years, so no matter who steps onto the field will be talented enough to get the job done. The same can’t be said for Louisville right now, so this is a strong lean in favor of the Crimson Tide.
At the moment, Saban is yet to decide between Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa as the starting quarterback. Alabama has had little trouble winning behind Hurts the past two seasons. But you can’t ignore how brilliant Tagoailoa was in the 2nd half of the championship game against Georgia. At the end of the day, there’s no bad choice for Saban to make here, nor is it out of the question for both to see the field against Louisville.
Regardless of who starts, Alabama’s quarterback will have plenty of help around him. Damien Harris leads an absolutely loaded backfield, as the Tide will be able to roll out four or five quality running backs. To be fair, there are a few questions about who will be playing and where on the offensive line. But again, there’s no shortage of talent on that unit, so Alabama shouldn’t be too worried.
Perhaps the biggest question for Alabama on offense outside of quarterback is at wide receiver. No wide receiver or tight end outside of the departed Calvin Ridley had more than 14 catches last season. There’s no sense of who is ready to step up and fill Ridley’s shoes this season. However, the lack of a true no. 1 option at receiver could force either Hurts or Tagovailoa to spread the ball around, which could end up working out.
In their season opener, the Alabama offense will be facing a Louisville defense trying to answer a world of questions. The Cardinals weren’t exactly stout on defense last season, and now they have to replace nine defensive starters from a season ago. Louisville’s defense appears to be lacking both talent and experience heading into the season. Alabama may not need to do anything fancy in this game; if they just keep things simple, they should be able to move the ball with ease.
Fortunately for the Cardinals, the Louisville offense is in a little better shape despite having to replace Jackson. Petrino will go with sophomore Jawon Pass to lead the offense in 2018. Pass is less of a runner than his predecessor but he may be a better pure passer than Jackson. He also has a nice collection of receivers at his disposal, so the Louisville passing attack could be more dangerous than a year ago. That’s good news because the Cards don’t have much experience at running back and will lose the 1,600 yards Jackson had on the ground in 2017.
Obviously, Pass faces a great challenge by making his first career start against Alabama. There’s some hope for him with the Tide replacing their entire secondary from last season. Alabama has also had some misfortune with injuries at linebacker during training camp. That could leave the door open for Pass to step up in the pocket and make some plays down the field against Alabama’s inexperienced secondary. Of course, even young Alabama players are pretty darn talented, so it’ll be easier said than done for the young quarterback.
The Cardinals may land a few punches against Alabama, but eventually, I expect the Tide to blow Louisville right out of the (former) Citrus Bowl. Saban may act like he’s worried, but Alabama is by far the better team, especially with the current state of the Louisville defense. As usual, the Crimson Tide will start strong and look close to unbeatable in their season opener. They will have no trouble covering the 24.5-point spread against Louisville.