The Alabama Crimson Tide will play their first home game of the 2018 season this weekend when they host the Arkansas State Red Wolves. Game time is set for 3:30 EST on Saturday, September 8, at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Fans can watch the game on ESPN2.
The Crimson Tide are listed as massive 36.5-point favorites against Arkansas State. Check out more of this week’s college football betting odds.
Alabama absolutely ripped apart Louisville in their season opener last week, beating the Cardinals 51-14. In the process, the Tide appears to have made a decision at the quarterback position. Tua Tagovailoa will start this week after completing 12 of 16 passes for 227 yards and two touchdowns against Louisville. However, Nick Saban says that he may use Jalen Hurts during the season when appropriate, so it’s possible that Hurts plays this week as well.
Arkansas State, meanwhile, took care of business against FCS opponent Southeast Missouri State in their season opener, winning 48-21. The Red Wolves were held back a little by three turnovers, although those mistakes didn’t stop them from out-gaining SMSU by 400 yards. It was a promising start to the season for Arkansas State, who is viewed as one of the favorites in the Sun Belt, a league they’ve won at least a share of in two of the last three seasons.
These two teams haven’t met since 2008. Since then, Alabama has won a lot of championships while Arkansas State has also come a long way, as they are now a perennial contender in the Sun Belt. In terms of mid-major programs, this is one of the toughest that Alabama could have scheduled. The Red Wolves have held their own with some power conference teams in recent years, even if they haven’t been able to pull off an upset.
Even for Alabama, I don’t feel comfortable swallowing this many points. To be fair, the Tide just beat Louisville for 37 points, so all they have to do is match that margin to cover the spread against Arkansas State. But this will be a different game and I think the Red Wolves will surprise some people by keeping this game close. I’ll lean toward Arkansas State and the points.
One thing Alabama will face against Arkansas State that they didn’t against Louisville is an experienced quarterback. Senior Justice Hansen has been the starter for the Red Wolves the past two seasons. He showed great progress from his sophomore to his junior season, throwing 37 touchdowns and 16 interceptions last season. With another step forward this season, he could be one of the better quarterbacks in the country. He’s already off to a good start, throwing for 423 yards and six touchdowns in the opener.
Obviously, putting up those kinds of numbers against Southeast Missouri is different from doing it against Alabama. But the Crimson Tide gave up a few big plays in the passing game against Louisville, as they’re still breaking in a new batch of starters in the secondary. The Red Wolves also have a deep stable of receivers, including several with great size who will present difficult matchups for any team they play, including Alabama.
I’m not expecting Arkansas State to get much going on the ground. The Louisville rushing attack was completely stifled last week. However, Hansen and the Red Wolves could have some success throwing the ball against the Alabama secondary. I think ASU will put some points on the board against the Tide.
Obviously, I’m not going to discount all that Tagovailoa and the Alabama offense accomplished in their season opener. The sophomore quarterback from Hawaii looks like a potential Heisman contender. The Alabama running game was also effective for most of the game without a ton of resistance from the Cardinals. However, it’s not as if the Louisville defense is expected to be that strong this season. They never stood much of a chance the Crimson Tide, so I wasn’t surprised that Alabama managed 51 points.
The Arkansas State defense, of course, will struggle at times to stop Alabama, as they gave up a few big plays to an FCS team last week. But the Red Wolves have some talent on that side of the ball, especially at the line of scrimmage. I don’t necessarily expect the Alabama offense to steamroll ASU the way you might think they would to a team from the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves will make some plays defensively to prevent Alabama from running away with the game early.
There’s little doubt that Alabama will win this game. But with a spread of more than five touchdowns, I’m not convinced they’re going to cover. It was easy for them to be excited about a primetime game against another power conference team. This week, they’ll have to get up for a mid-afternoon game against a team from the Sun Belt. I can see the Tide coming out a little relaxed and complacent, much to Saban’s chagrin. A slow start could make it tough for Alabama to cover, especially if the ASU passing attack can make some plays. I’ll take my chances with the Red Wolves and the points.