Saturday’s MAC Title Game pits two teams who are returning to the conference championship in over a decade. Akron surprised many by winning the MAC East and finishing with a 6-2 conference record. Toledo would’ve swept through the conference if it weren’t for a slip up a few weeks ago. The Rockets won the MAC West with a 7-1 record and are clearly the best team in the conference. Will Akron pull off the upset or will Toledo win as expected? Kickoff inside Ford Field begins at 12 PM ET.
These two teams have played 20 times against each other all-time. Toledo holds an 11-9 record overall, but have posted a 9-3 record against Akron since 1992. The Rockets have won 2 games in a row against Akron including earlier this season when they defeated the Zips 48-21.
Akron (7-5, 6-2 MAC) is coming off a 24-14 victory over Kent in the Wagon Wheel game. It was their 3rd straight win against Kent and only the second time since their move up to the FBS in 1987 that this team has become bowl eligible. This is the 3rd time that Akron has won the MAC East since joining the conference in 1992.
Toledo (10-2, 7-1 MAC) is not only the top scoring team in the MAC, but they’re also a highly ranked offense in the nation. The Rockets have been winning with a balanced attack led by stellar quarterback play and a solid rushing attack. Toledo looks to win the MAC and move on to a large bowl game against a highly touted opponent. The Rockets are huge favorites and already pounded Akron this year.
The spread opened with Toledo favored by 18 points. It currently sits at Toledo favored by 21.5 points. The Over/Under opened at 54 points and has gone up to 57 total points.
After the way Toledo has been crushing MAC opponents, it’s hard to believe that trend won’t continue. On the season, Toledo averages 38.7 ppg overall, which is 15th in the nation in scoring. Toledo is also ranked 15th in first downs and 9th in total offense at 505.7 ypg.
This high octane Toledo offense is led by senior QB Logan Woodside who is ranked 13th in the nation with 3,451 passing yards and has 24 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions. He’s 3rd in the nation with a 170.5 passing efficiency and 4th with 15.3 completions per game. In their October matchup, Toledo won by 27 points and that was largely due to Woodside’s performance as he threw for 304 yards, 5 touchdowns and just 1 interception. Toledo stormed out to a 24-7 lead by halftime and never looked back. The Rockets also have a solid rushing attack led by senior RB Terry Swanson who has 1,339 yards and 12 touchdowns.
The Zips give up 24 ppg and allow 421 total ypg. And, in their October matchup against Toledo, Akron allowed 626 total yards. I expect something similar to happen this week.
Akron had the 3rd lowest points scored during MAC play at 24.5 ppg and they averaged 23.3 ppg overall on the season. Additionally, they only total 323.9 offensive ypg, which is one of the worst offensive productions in the conference.
What this all boils down is to this – Toledo will crush Akron this week. The Rockets are just too dangerous and explosive on offense. Woodside is the conference’s best quarterback and he will torch the Akron secondary once again. I also believe that Swanson will have a bigger game than the last time these two teams played. Look for Swanson to break 150 yards on the ground and at least one touchdown. In the end, Toledo will open up a big lead and cruise to a 44-20 victory.
Akron is 3-6 ATS Toledo in their last 9 meetings. The Rockets are 6-2 ATS in MAC play this year and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games.