Picking service academy games is not the simplest job in the business. The 3 FBS military schools – Army, Navy, and Air Force – have their own 3-team “conference” outside of the official conferences the teams play in another 8-9 weekends per year (or in Army’s case, the “FBS Independents Conference”).
The Commander-in-Chief trophy is the holy grail of the 3-team league.
Air Force and Navy, set for their – ahem, billionth meeting on Saturday – don’t produce have blue-chip defenses. But they do know exactly how to play defense against each other, and that’s handy when each offense is known to hog the pigskin for most of 4 quarters.
The Falcons run a “multiple” offense quite different from the gear-grinding Flexbone of Navy – but with enough triple-option looks in the playbook to give coaches a strong understanding of how to stop the attack. The Midshipmen, despite their periodic ascension to the rank of bona-fide New Year’s Six contender, still base their recruiting and training methods largely around beating Army and Air Force.
It’s another war between military branches. Who will claim the inside track in the race for the grail?
Who: Air Force Falcons at Navy Midshipmen
When: Saturday, October 5th, 3:30 PM EST
Where: Navy Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD
Lines: Air Force (-3.5) at Navy (+3.5) / O/U Total: (45)
Air Force is a popular moneyline favorite, and the point spread has been moving in the Falcons’ direction too. I think it’s an interesting case of faulty macro-analysis on behalf of the betting public.
If “micro” analysis is about comparing the stats of backup RBs and so on, then macro-analysis is the scoreboard and the trends on offense, defense, and special teams. Gamblers are looking at the outcomes of each academy’s Week 5 and seeing 2 very different pictures, but maybe forgetting the context and the circumstances just a little bit.
Everything seems rosy in Colorado Springs now that Air Force handled a hot San Jose State team with ease. B-back (and occasional shotgun-spread tailback) Tavin Birdow ripped through the Spartan defense for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns, and QB Donald Hammond III was effective through the air. Defense was exceptionally good just 1 week after the service academy bothered Boise State for 4 quarters in a 30-19 loss that stands as Air Force’s only loss on the season.
Meanwhile, Navy certainly didn’t fare as well last week, not to the naked eye anyway. The 2-1 Middies may have lost convincingly to Memphis after making too many shaky errors on offense and giving up far too many big piays to the rival Tigers.
But especially going-into another massive rivalry scrum – this time in Annapolis – it is unwise for the public to give up on Navy’s chances to prevail or at least cover ATS.
San Jose State was due for a “reversion” after beating Arkansas, and Navy put on their own clinic against a pedestrian conference foe when whipping East Carolina 42-10 prior to the Memphis road trip. The Midshipmen did produce around 400 yards of offense at the Liberty Bowl, with A-back Keoni-Kordell Makekau joining QB Malcolm Perry for explosive carries.
Meanwhile the Navy defense looks off-the-hook compared to the traditionally-meager strength of the unit. The Middies have a new scheme and plenty of thick and fast defenders, and Memphis was held to less than 200 yards through the air and less than 350 yards overall.
So how did the hosts manage to dominate and squash the Middies in the 2nd half? Special teams, mostly. Navy was so badly-outplayed by Memphis in the 3rd phase that the Tigers’ average-length punt of 44 yards stands superior to Navy’s entire punt and kick-return yardage on the night (43 yards). Memphis returners raced across midfield prior to several possessions and ran a kickoff back 99 yards for a touchdown. Navy’s field-position disadvantage was atrocious.
That’s not likely to happen again against a fellow service academy. Navy must try to compete with American Athletic Conference foes as best as the Middies can on special teams, though schools like Central Florida and USF (and Memphis) will always have more pure speed to burn in the reserve ranks – the players who play a lot of special teams.
But it’s easier for an academy which has been struggling to keep up on special teams to get by with spit and vinegar when their opponent suffers from the same endemic issues. Air Force can’t overwhelm Navy on kickoffs and punts. If the Mids out-gain the Falcons 400-350 there won’t be as much for Trey Calhoun’s visitors to fall back on.
Making a score prediction usually means you’re looking for an angle on the Over/Under, but although I think Navy could end up winning a classic 28-27 or 20-19, I wouldn’t touch the O/U as it looks to be handicapped just about right in Las Vegas.
Navy is the pick – on the point spread or the moneyline.
Gamblers driving the lines are guilty of viewing all mid-major opponents under a big blanket, but in truth Navy’s loss was in some respects more impressive than Air Force’s most-recent win. An improved and underrated Annapolis defense will make the difference on Saturday.