A pair of undefeated teams from the Mountain West will meet up to help kick off the college football weekend as the no. 20 Boise State Broncos play host to the Air Force Falcons. The game is set to get underway at 9:00 EST on Friday, September 20 at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho. Fans can watch the game on ESPN2.
The Week 4 college football odds list Boise State as 8-point favorites at home. The game also has an over/under of 55 points.
The Broncos didn’t begin the season in the top-25, but they quickly got there after a road win over Florida State to begin the season. However, Boise State was a little disappointing the following week, only beating Marshall 14-7 despite dominating the game statistically. But the Broncos seemed to get their offensive mojo back last week, beating FCS foes Portland State 45-10. As usual, Boise State is one of the top favorites to win the Mountain West, although Air Force should present a challenging conference opener for them.
The Falcons are fresh off an overtime win at Colorado last week. Air Force was a slight road underdog, so it’s not a shock that they won. But it’s still a big deal for them to topple their in-state rivals. It was a game of runs, as the Falcons overcame a 10-point deficit early in the game but then struggled to maintain a 23-10 lead. Fortunately for Air Force, they prevailed in overtime 30-23, overcoming three turnovers that cost them. After knocking off FCS opponent Colgate in their season-opener, the Falcons are now 2-0 overall as they begin Mountain West play and aim for their first bowl game since 2016.
Air Force has had more success against Boise State than most Mountain West teams. Since 2011, the Falcons have managed three wins in seven head-to-head meetings with the Broncos, which is nothing to scoff at the way Boise State has dominated that conference. Of course, the Broncos have also beaten Air Force the past two seasons, including a 44-19 win the last time the Falcons visited Boise in 2017.
Given their history against Boise State, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Air Force win this game. They won at Boise as recently as 2015, so it’s no impossible. The Broncos had a freshman at quarterback that season, and they’ll have another freshman starting this time around. I also have some other concerns about the Broncos, so eight points is a little high for me. I’ll lean toward Air Force to at least beat the spread.
Thus far, Boise State should be pleased with the play of freshman quarterback Hank Bachmeier. He threw for over 400 yards against Florida State, helping lead the comeback against the Seminoles. But there have also been growing pains. For starters, he’s thrown an interception in every game this season. Bachmeier has also been sacked 10 times in three games, and only five of those came against an athletic FSU defense. Things are far from perfect with the Boise passing game, which is part of the reason they only beat Marshall 14-7.
The other reason the Broncos failed to pull away from Marshall is their running game. The tandem of George Holani and Robert Mahone has been fine, but far from exceptional. On the season, the Broncos as a team are averaging less than four yards per carry. I’d expect that to be a little better after facing Marshall and Portland State in their last two games. Meanwhile, the Air Force defense did a nice job of keeping Colorado’s rushing attack in check last week. After standing up to a power-conference opponent in the trenches, I think the Falcons can hold their own against Boise State.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons have a run-heavy offensive scheme that can be both successful at moving the ball and efficient at controlling the clock. Both running back Kadin Remsberg and fullback Taven Birdow have been effective rushing through two games, and quarterback Donald Hammond has chipped as well. The Falcons were able to control the clock against Colorado, which helped keep them in the game.
Obviously, Air Force doesn’t throw the ball too much. Hammond doesn’t have much experience in that area, as this is his first season as the starter. But the Falcons will throw the ball a little more than the other service academies. Boise State will have to respect Air Force’s willingness to throw the ball, which should help their rushing attack.
In the end, I think the Air Force running game will slow down the game enough to keep them within eight points and give them a chance in the fourth quarter. With a freshman quarterback and a modest running game, I’m still not sold on Boise State pulling away from too many teams this year. That’s enough for me to side with the Falcons, at least against the spread.