Jimmy Boyd

3* HEAVY HITTER on Utah Valley -9

Utah Valley is the much better team in this spot and the line doesn't reflect the talent gap.
The Wolverines have a massive advantage on the defensive end of the floor.

Texas-Arlington struggles to find any rhythm against elite length and size.
Utah Valley ranks near the top of the conference in effective field goal percentage defense.

They force opponents into tough, contested shots late in the shot clock.
UTA wants to push the pace, but the Wolverines are disciplined at getting back in transition.

The Mavericks also have a major problem on the glass.
Utah Valley is one of the best rebounding teams in the country and dominates the paint.

They limit opponents to one shot and create constant second-chance points on the other end.
Fatigue is a massive factor for Texas-Arlington in this Friday night matchup.

The Mavericks are playing their third game in three days after a physical battle yesterday.
Utah Valley comes in with much fresher legs and has had time to prep for this specific scheme.

The Wolverines are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games as favorites.
They have covered the number in four of the last five head-to-head meetings with the Mavericks.

UTA turns the ball over on nearly 20 percent of their possessions.
Utah Valley is too efficient to let those extra opportunities go to waste.

The Wolverines will pull away late as the Mavericks run out of gas in the second half.
Expect a double-digit win for the home side in a very favorable environment.

I like the Utah Valley -9 (-110)

3* HEAVY HITTER on Twins +135

The Twins are sitting at a juicy +135 price today in Toronto. This line is a massive overreaction to the Blue Jays playing in their home opener.

The underlying metrics show these two teams are much closer than the current odds suggest. Minnesota is sending a starter to the mound with an xFIP nearly a full run lower than his surface ERA.

He is due for some serious positive regression after getting unlucky with a high BABIP in his previous starts. The Blue Jays are struggling to barrel up high-velocity fastballs right now.

Their lineup ranks near the bottom of the league in hard-hit percentage over the last ten days. Toronto’s bullpen is also a glaring vulnerability in this specific matchup.

Their high-leverage arms have been taxed heavily over the last week of play. They are gassed and prone to giving up late-inning home runs when their velocity dips.

The Twins have a rested back end of the bullpen that can lock this game down in the late innings. Minnesota’s offense has been crushing right-handed pitching all through the early part of the schedule.

They currently rank in the top five in the American League in ISO and walk rate against righties. They will work deep counts and get into that thin Toronto middle relief before the sixth inning.

The value is clearly on the road underdog in a game that should be priced closer to a pick'em. Taking a disciplined team like the Twins at this plus-money price is the only sharp move.

I like the Twins ML (+135).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Rockies +110

The Rangers are laying juice on the road in a spot where they simply don't have the lineup depth to back it up.

Texas is currently missing its heart and soul at third base with Josh Jung still sidelined by a persistent adductor strain.

He hasn't played in over two weeks and the team is being extremely cautious with his return to the diamond this late in the spring.

They are also down Justin Foscue and Cody Freeman in the infield, forcing the Rangers to run out a lot of non-roster invites and minor-league depth to fill the gaps.

That is a massive problem when you’re playing at Salt River Fields in the thin, dry Scottsdale air.

The ball jumps out of this park and you need an experienced, veteran lineup to keep pace in a high-scoring Cactus League shootout.

Colorado has their regulars finding their rhythm and the offense has shown a much higher hard-hit percentage over the last few days of camp.

The Rockies have been much more consistent at the plate and they won’t have to deal with a long bus ride across the valley this morning.

Texas is also likely to cycle through young bullpen arms who are struggling with their command and leaving too many hanging breaking balls over the heart of the plate.

With several key Rangers relievers still recovering from injuries or shoulder fatigue, the late-inning depth is incredibly thin right now.

The Rockies thrive in this hitting environment and have a clear offensive edge once the starters exit after the third or fourth inning.

Texas simply has too many holes in the active roster right now to be favored on the road in a hitting-heavy venue like this.

I’ll take the plus money with the home team that features the healthier bats and the home-field advantage.

I like the Rockies ML (+110)

1* Free Pick on Angels +100

The Guardians are running into a serious depth problem in their bullpen before the season even starts.

Cleveland star reliever Hunter Gaddis is sidelined with forearm tightness and likely won't see the mound today.

They are also missing Andrew Walters and Austin Peterson, leaving Stephen Vogt with a very thin relief corps in the middle innings.

That is the clear edge for an Angels squad that has been hitting the ball well all spring in Tempe.

Young stars Logan O’Hoppe and Zach Neto have both been locked in at the plate during Cactus League play.

O’Hoppe already leads the team in home runs this spring and looks poised for a massive breakout season.

The Guardians are starting Joey Cantillo, and while he has talent, he tends to struggle with his command when facing veteran lineups.

The Angels are looking for some payback after dropping a 5-3 decision to Cleveland earlier this month.

With Kurt Suzuki now managing, there is a visible shift in the energy and aggression of this Anaheim roster.

The Angels are playing at home at Tempe Diablo Stadium where they have historically seen much better offensive production.

Cleveland's relief staff is too banged up to trust in a close game, especially with their top arms being slow-played.

Expect the Angels to jump on Cantillo early and exploit the holes in the Cleveland bullpen.

I like the Angels ML (+100)

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5* NO BRAINER of the Week on White Sox +110

The White Sox are playing solid baseball in Glendale right now and this price on the moneyline is a gift.
Cubs manager Craig Counsell is already dealing with a massive headache regarding his pitching staff.

Porter Hodge and Jordan Wicks are both confirmed to start the season on the injured list.
That forces the Cubs to rely on thin minor league depth and an inexperienced spring bullpen.

Davis Martin starts for the South Siders today and he has been significantly more consistent than the Cubs' arms.
He is attacking the zone and keeping the ball on the ground which is vital in the thin Arizona air.

The Cubs are countering with Riley Martin who has struggled with his command and a high ERA throughout camp.
The North Side lineup is also missing several key stars who are currently away playing in the World Baseball Classic.

Alex Bregman is suiting up for Team USA which leaves a massive hole in the heart of the Cubs' batting order.
On the other side the White Sox offense is finding its rhythm at the right time.

Brandon Drury is hitting over .400 this spring and Lenyn Sosa has been a home run machine in Cactus League play.
While the White Sox lost catcher Kyle Teel to a hamstring strain in the WBC they have veteran replacements ready to step in.

The Cubs simply do not have the pitching depth to bridge the gap between their starters and the later innings right now.
Expect the White Sox hitters to jump on Riley Martin early and often.

Getting the more stable roster at plus money is the only way to play this cross-town rivalry.
The edge is clearly with the better-performing arms on the South Side today.

Bet White Sox ML (+110).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Massachusetts +140

UMass is getting too much disrespect in this spot at +140.

The Minutemen are the much more physical team and they will dominate the glass tonight.

Toledo has struggled all season against teams that can force them into a half-court grind.

The Rockets rank near the bottom of the country in defensive rebounding percentage.

UMass is a top-40 unit when it comes to grabbing their own misses.

They are going to get second and third chances all night long against a soft Toledo interior.

Toledo relies almost entirely on the three-point shot to stay in games.

If those shots aren't falling early, they do not have the size to score inside.

The Minutemen have been elite at running teams off the arc lately.

UMass has covered the spread in five of their last six games as an underdog.

They are also 4-1 straight up in their last five games away from home.

Toledo is playing their second game in three days after a physical battle on Wednesday night.

UMass has had an extra day of rest to get their legs under them and prep for this matchup.

The Rockets are thin in the frontcourt and will likely face foul trouble against this UMass pressure.

The Minutemen take care of the ball and rank high in turnover percentage.

They will not give Toledo the easy fast-break points they need to build a lead.

The value is clearly on the underdog that plays better defense and wins the rebounding war.

I like the Massachusetts ML (+140)

5* NO BRAINER on Tennessee +105

Tennessee getting plus money in a revenge spot is the value play here.
Vanderbilt stole one in Knoxville just six days ago to end the regular season.
That loss cost the Vols a double-bye and ruined their senior night festivities.
Expect Rick Barnes to have his squad locked in defensively to make sure it doesn't happen twice.

The biggest factor in this matchup is health.
Freshman star Nate Ament missed that last loss to the Commodores with an ankle injury.
He returned yesterday in the win over Auburn and looked like a lottery pick again.
Ament dropped 22 points and showed zero signs of a lingering limp.
With him back on the floor, Tennessee has an offensive ceiling that Vanderbilt struggles to contain.

The Vols should also dominate the glass in this quarterfinal.
They rank in the top five nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.
Vanderbilt has a thin frontcourt that often fails to secure defensive boards against physical teams.
Tennessee will generate enough second-chance points to offset any rest disadvantage from playing yesterday.

Vanderbilt is having a historic season, but they rely almost entirely on Tyler Tanner.
Tennessee has the perimeter length and defensive pressure to make his life miserable for forty minutes.
The Vols already won in Nashville back in February when they were fully focused.
Plus-money on the better defensive team with their best player back is an easy call.

I like the Tennessee ML (+105)

5* NO BRAINER on Warriors +6½

Minnesota is in a nightmare scheduling spot tonight. This is their third road game in four nights after physical battles against the Lakers and Clippers. Fatigue is a massive factor at the end of a long West Coast swing.

The public is looking at the Golden State injury report and running to the window to bet against them. Stephen Curry is out for his 15th straight game and Jimmy Butler is sidelined for the year. That looks bad on paper, but the oddsmakers have overreacted to the missing star power.

Golden State is playing at home and coming off two full days of rest. They still have Draymond Green anchoring the defense and the energy of the Chase Center crowd behind them. The Warriors also have a healthy Kristaps Porzingis, who provides a much-needed interior presence.

Porzingis has been highly efficient since joining the rotation, averaging nearly 25 points per 36 minutes. Minnesota averages over 119 points per game, but their eFG% historically drops at the end of a road trip. The Wolves have heavy legs and will likely struggle to keep up with the Warriors' ball movement.

Minnesota is 40-25 and sitting comfortably in the standings, while the Warriors are desperate for every win to stay in the playoff hunt. Expect a high-energy performance from the Golden State bench to keep the pressure on a tired visiting team.

Getting 6.5 points with a motivated home underdog is the sharp play in this situation. The Warriors have enough veteran leadership to keep this within a single possession until the final whistle.

I like the Warriors +6.5.