The college football action on Friday night includes a Conference-USA showdown between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and Florida International Panthers. Kickoff is set for 8:00 EST on Friday, September 20 at Joe Aillet Stadium in Ruston, Louisiana. The game can be seen on CBS Sports Network.
Oddsmakers list the Bulldogs as 10-point favorites at home with an over/under of 51.5 points. Be sure to check out all of this week’s college football odds.
After suffering a lopsided loss to Texas in their season opener, Louisiana Tech has bounced back with wins the past two weeks. However, the Bulldogs struggled with FCS opponent Grambling, failing to score after halftime and only winning 20-14. They were also out-gained in total yards in that game. Fortunately for Skip Holtz and company, things improved last week with a 35-7 win over Bowling Green. The Bulldogs can now set their sights on trying to win the Conference-USA West division. Beating Florida International in their conference opener could give them a big leg up over their competition in the West division.
Meanwhile, the Panthers have gotten off to a sluggish start this season after going 9-4 last year. FIU was blown out by Tulane in their season opener and then lost a close game to Western Kentucky in their conference opener the following week. The Panthers finally got their first win of the season last week, although it came against FCS opponent New Hampshire in a game that FIU trailed in the middle of the third quarter. In other words, it’s not been a promising start to the season for the Panthers. If FIU wants to be a contender in the Conference-USA East division, they can’t afford to lose their first two conference games, so this is a must-win game for them.
These two teams have only met on three previous occasions, with Louisiana Tech winning all three games. The most recent meeting was a 44-24 win for the Bulldogs in 2016. However, this will be the first time FIU faces Louisiana Tech since Butch Davis became the head coach in 2017. The Panthers have been a good team under Davis the past two seasons, so this could be their chance to knockoff the Bulldogs for the first time.
Despite being 2-1 on the season and having a good excuse for their one loss, Louisiana Tech hasn’t been as good as I thought they’d be this season. That has me a little too worried about them covering a double-digit spread against a good conference opponent. To be fair, the Panthers have been a disappointment as well. But I think Davis will get his team ready to play on Friday and give the Bulldogs all they can handle.
The biggest question heading into this game is the status of FIU quarterback James Morgan. He left the Western Kentucky game with an ankle injury, which is a big reason why the Panthers struggled offensively in that game and last week. By all accounts, he could have played last week against New Hampshire if needed, indicating there’s a good chance he’ll be able to play against Louisiana Tech. Knowing Morgan will likely play makes me feel a lot better about FIU beating the spread.
To be fair, Morgan wasn’t at his best in the season opener against Tulane. He also struggled early in the game against Western Kentucky. But he was huge for the Panthers last season, tossing 26 touchdown passes to just seven interceptions. He got a lot of help from his defense, but Morgan was arguably the biggest reason why the Panthers won nine games in 2018. If he can get going, he’ll be the biggest difference-maker on the field.
Of course, Louisiana Tech also has an experienced and proven quarterback in J’Mar Smith. The senior has seen a drastic improvement in his completion percentage early in the season compared to the last two years. He even handled himself well against Texas, albeit in a losing effort. However, teams like Grambling and Bowling Green haven’t exactly been challenging opponents. Facing FIU will be a big step up in competition for Smith and the Louisiana Tech offense, which hasn’t exactly lit up weaker opponents the last two weeks.
Admittedly, the FIU defense didn’t bring their A-game the first week against Tulane. But the Panthers have stepped up on that side of the ball the last two weeks, something they’ve needed to do without Morgan leading the offense. They’ve allowed 20 points or less in two straight weeks, and as long as they limit to Louisiana Tech to a similar total this week, the Panthers should be able to stay within striking distance and keep the game close.
As noted, this pick is contingent on Morgan playing. If he’s ruled out, the Bulldogs will be more likely to cover. But it seems like Morgan will return from injury to lead the Panthers. If that’s the case, I think FIU has enough to beat the spread and possibly pull off the road upset of Louisiana Tech.