What’s the point of using a handicapper?
I’ve been asked this question hundreds of times throughout my career, and I feel like I’ve always had a pretty good answer. Most people don’t have the time and/or energy to pour over game statistics and trends; to do the kind of research it takes to be successful over a long period of time betting on sports.
Believe me, I’ve heard it all before. People claiming they win 90% of the time they bet or they “know a guy” who has inside info and hits like 80% every single year. The problem is, that every time we’ve asked to have these players send in their plays so we can track them, they never live up to the hype. A good handicapper is going to hit around 57-60%, give or take, throughout any given season (it may be higher or lower in some sports, for instance, baseball, which relies heavily on the money line).
So what? You say. Anyone can hit 60% of their picks. Right? The fact of the matter is that your average bettor wins more like 45% of their bets over the course of the year. Most people remember “the good times” when they won 10 of 12 bets and think the winning will last forever, but it doesn’t. Some people can be successful by making a few quick, big bets and cashing out, but, for the most part, this method of betting is going to drain your bankroll more often than it is going to fill it up.
Let’s look at some quick math to see why it is worth signing up with a consistent handicapper for more than just a day:
For the sake of argument, let’s assume you are an above-average bettor that likes a moderate amount of action and you bet $110 per game to win $100. Let’s say you bet on 28 games over the course of a week, and you do pretty well. You hit 15 of your 28 games (54%, well above average). So you won $1500 and lost $1430 for a total profit of $70.
Instead, let’s say you pay for a handicapper that wins 57% of his games, on average. You pay $150 for a weekly package and he goes 16-12 (57%). In this case you would have won $1600, lost $1320, giving you a profit of $280, minus the cost of the package ($150), giving you a total profit of $130. Not bad, and certainly better than the $70 you won on your own.
Now, let’s say you choose a handicapper that has an good week and hits 7 of 11 picks (61%). The cost of the package, again, is $150 (which is about average). You would have won $1700 and lost $1210 for $490, minus the package you’re still walking away with $340 in profit.
The point is that even the smallest percentage matters. In the cases above, hitting just 1 or 2 more bets per week is going to pay for itself. If you come into betting with a handicapper thinking he’s going to hit every single game every single night of every month, you’re always going to be disappointed. But, if you come into the experience with the right mindset, a more realistic one, that a handicapper can help you win more games over a given period of time and help you to maximize your profits, you’ll have a good handicapping experience. Just remember that any improvement in the % of the bets you win is going to help you in the long run. Thanks for reading and good luck!