Earning a top seed in the NCAA Tournament is a huge advantage. In fact, number one seeds are almost 4x more likely to win the championship than the next-best seed. Going back to the start of the modern bracket era, we have used the results of each round in the tournament so far to calculate the odds of each seed making it to each round.
This should be of good use when filling out your bracket. Below you will find the probabilities for each seed to advance to that round based on historical win percentages. For example, 86% of number three seeds make it to the second round, but just over 11% make the Final Four, or about one every 2 years.
The final column in our first table is labeled “True Odds”. These would be the fair odds for each seed to win the NCAA Tournament based on historical results. In other words, these are the implied probabilities that at least one of the four teams at that seed wins the National Championship. There are many other factors that go into making truly expert bracket picks, but this is a good place to start, especially to guide you through later rounds.
| Seed | 2nd Round | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final Four | Championship | Win Championship | True Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 98.7% | 84.2% | 66.4% | 39.5% | 24.3% | 15.8% | 63.2% |
| 2 | 92.8% | 62.5% | 44.7% | 21.1% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 13.2% |
| 3 | 85.5% | 52.6% | 25.7% | 11.2% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 10.5% |
| 4 | 78.9% | 47.4% | 15.1% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 5.3% |
| 5 | 65.1% | 34.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 61.8% | 28.9% | 10.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 2.6% |
| 7 | 61.2% | 19.1% | 6.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.6% |
| 8 | 48.7% | 10.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 2.6% |
| 9 | 51.3% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10 | 38.8% | 15.8% | 5.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11 | 38.2% | 17.1% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12 | 34.9% | 14.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13 | 21.1% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14 | 14.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15 | 7.2% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
While those numbers give us a broad look at the probabilities for teams at different positions in the tournament, it may also help to know the exact results for each seed. You’ll find the records and win percentages in every bracket since 1985 in the tables below. These differ from the table above in that they show how each team does in each round once they have reached it.
The opening slate is unsurprisingly the most predictable. At seeds 1-4 we can advance teams in our bracket without much worry of an upset. 2018 marked the first time in history a #1 upset a #16. It didn’t take long for the second occurrence. In 2023, #16 Howard upset #1 Kansas in another shocking victory. While talent gaps are narrowing and I wouldn’t be surprised if it were to happen again, you are still better off assuming all #1 seeds are going to advance past this round.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 150 | 2 | 99% |
| 2 | 141 | 11 | 93% |
| 3 | 130 | 22 | 86% |
| 4 | 120 | 32 | 79% |
| 5 | 99 | 53 | 65% |
| 6 | 94 | 58 | 62% |
| 7 | 93 | 59 | 61% |
| 8 | 74 | 78 | 49% |
| 9 | 78 | 74 | 51% |
| 10 | 59 | 93 | 39% |
| 11 | 58 | 94 | 38% |
| 12 | 53 | 99 | 35% |
| 13 | 32 | 120 | 21% |
| 14 | 22 | 130 | 14% |
| 15 | 11 | 141 | 7% |
| 16 | 2 | 150 | 1% |
The second round is where you start to find a lot of variation versus what you would expect based strictly on seeding. Number nine seeds have been terrible in their second game, while ten seeds win their second round games over 40% of the time. Top ranked teams at this point in the tournament are still a safe bet.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 128 | 22 | 85% |
| 2 | 95 | 46 | 67% |
| 3 | 80 | 50 | 62% |
| 4 | 72 | 48 | 60% |
| 5 | 52 | 47 | 53% |
| 6 | 44 | 50 | 47% |
| 7 | 29 | 64 | 31% |
| 8 | 16 | 58 | 22% |
| 9 | 8 | 70 | 10% |
| 10 | 24 | 35 | 41% |
| 11 | 26 | 32 | 45% |
| 12 | 22 | 31 | 42% |
| 13 | 6 | 26 | 19% |
| 14 | 2 | 20 | 9% |
| 15 | 4 | 7 | 36% |
| 16 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
The Sweet 16 is where the better ranked teams really start to settle in. If you are a 1 or 2 seed that has made it this far, chances are you are going to advance. It is interesting to note here that 8 and 9 seeds perform much better than we might expect in this round. They have a smaller sample size that higher seeded teams in this situation, but it seems so far that these teams have taken advantage once they have made it.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 101 | 27 | 79% |
| 2 | 68 | 27 | 72% |
| 3 | 39 | 41 | 49% |
| 4 | 23 | 49 | 32% |
| 5 | 12 | 40 | 23% |
| 6 | 16 | 28 | 36% |
| 7 | 10 | 19 | 34% |
| 8 | 9 | 7 | 56% |
| 9 | 5 | 3 | 63% |
| 10 | 9 | 15 | 38% |
| 11 | 9 | 17 | 35% |
| 12 | 2 | 20 | 9% |
| 13 | 0 | 6 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| 15 | 1 | 3 | 25% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
This round appears to be the biggest equalizer. Teams who reach this point in the tournament are obviously talented and have either had an easy bracket thus far or have overcome some obstacles. This makes the Elite 8 ripe for upsets.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60 | 41 | 59% |
| 2 | 32 | 36 | 47% |
| 3 | 17 | 22 | 44% |
| 4 | 14 | 9 | 61% |
| 5 | 9 | 3 | 75% |
| 6 | 3 | 13 | 19% |
| 7 | 3 | 7 | 30% |
| 8 | 6 | 3 | 67% |
| 9 | 2 | 3 | 40% |
| 10 | 1 | 8 | 11% |
| 11 | 5 | 4 | 56% |
| 12 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Similar to the Elite 8, teams who make it this far, regardless of seed, are going to be a tough out. All this means is that, if you select a non-number one to make the Final Four, you shouldn’t feel obligated to pick them to lose at this point. Number one sees are of course going to be the safest bet as they reach this round the most often by far.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37 | 23 | 62% |
| 2 | 13 | 19 | 41% |
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 65% |
| 4 | 4 | 10 | 29% |
| 5 | 4 | 5 | 44% |
| 6 | 2 | 1 | 67% |
| 7 | 1 | 2 | 33% |
| 8 | 4 | 2 | 67% |
| 9 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| 10 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 11 | 0 | 5 | 0% |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
No surprise here that #1s win the Championship more often than any other, especially considering eight championship games have featured two number one teams. No team seeded higher than 8th has reached the title game as of yet, but at some point one would have to assume a 9, 10, or higher can break through.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | 13 | 65% |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 38% |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 36% |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| 5 | 0 | 4 | 0% |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 50% |
| 7 | 1 | 0 | 100% |
| 8 | 1 | 3 | 25% |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |