The NBA can be an extremely difficult sport to handicap. With the long schedule it is difficult to predict when a team is going to not show up and leave you hanging on a game they could have easily covered if they played up to their potential. In order to be successful in the NBA you have to take advantage of every angle you can find, and you have to continue working to find new angles as oddsmakers will quickly adapt to the game.
A lot of people will make their picks on NBA games based off a team’s overall record, when in reality they should be making their picks off how a team has done ATS. Wins and losses when betting in the NBA only matter ATS. This is where oddsmakers can take advantage of the public. The public tends to fall in love with betting popular teams who are doing well and to fade teams that are doing bad. It can take several losses before they even consider changing their ways.
This idea I want to share with you is to look past how well a team has done straight up in their last 10 games and focus more on how well they have done ATS. What you want to look for are teams who have either won or loss 70% of their last 10 games ATS and wait for them to win or lose consecutive games in the opposite direction, and ride out the streak in the other direction.
Because the public is so set in their ways, they are usually slow to catch on to teams that have been dominating the spread. A team under the radar can easily cover a high percentage of games before the public takes notice. Once the oddsmakers see that the public is catching on, they will quickly shade the odds the other way and that team that just won 70% of their games against the spread are now primed to lose 70% of their next 10 games.
It works pretty much the same way for teams that have lost 70% of their last 10 games. Once these teams win consecutive games ATS it’s time to jump on board. Teams that have really struggled ATS are usually making the public money, because it really takes a lot for the public to bet on bad teams. When these teams get bad they can lose 10 games SU and ATS like its nothing. Those that start to jump on these teams to early, thinking they can’t lose another ATS, can get themselves in a lot of trouble. However, its only a matter of time before they start to play better and start to get so many points on the spread that they start covering at a very high clip. The great thing about these teams is it can take even longer for the public to jump on board.
The reason I like to wait for a team to win or lose consecutive games in the opposite direction, is I don’t put a lot of stock into just one win or loss ATS. Much like how teams tend to win and lose games in streaks straight up, they same tends to happen against the spread. The great part about this is you can really make a lot of money just riding the streaks of a few teams.