A bettor pulls up a sportsbook price already open on one screen and a Kalshi market for the same team on another. Both show a number. Neither number settles anything until it answers the same question: what does it actually cost, in cents, to buy this side right now.
That question has one answer, not three. The sportsbook’s moneyline converts to a price in cents. Kalshi’s ask plus its taker fee converts to a price in cents. Whichever of those two is lower is the cheaper way to buy that side, and that comparison is the only one this page runs.
The test has one shape. Take Kalshi’s ask and add the taker fee. Take the sportsbook’s own moneyline and convert it to what a dollar of payout costs on that side, vig included. Compare the two numbers in cents. Lower wins. That is the whole test.
The mid does not belong in it. The mid is the midpoint between the best bid and the best ask, and nobody can buy a contract at the mid. It is a reference point, not a price anyone can trade at, so a comparison built on the mid is comparing a real cost to a number that does not exist as a transaction.
The sportsbook’s fair price does not belong either, for the same reason in reverse. De-vigging a moneyline produces a theoretical price with the hold stripped out, but no sportsbook lets a customer bet at that price. The only price you can actually buy is the one with the vig still in it, so that is the only sportsbook number that goes into the test.
BetFirm has run this test on every NFL game since Week 2 of the 2026 season, 63 games played from September 17 to October 12, 2026. Each side of each game, where both venues priced it, gets the same cents-for-cents comparison described above.
Across all 374 sides priced at both, Kalshi came out cheaper after the fee on 140 and the sportsbook came out cheaper on 234, a 37% share for Kalshi and an average difference of 0.4 cents in the sportsbook’s favor. The table below breaks that out by bet type and by which side of the bet it was, favorite or underdog, over or under, and the split is not even across those lines.
| Bet | Side | Priced at both | Cheaper on Kalshi | Share | Average difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Favorite | 63 | 32 | 51% | Kalshi by 0.1c |
| Moneyline | Underdog | 63 | 18 | 29% | books by 0.7c |
| Spread | Favorite, laying the points | 62 | 29 | 47% | Kalshi by 0.2c |
| Spread | Underdog, taking the points | 62 | 15 | 24% | books by 1.3c |
| Total | Over | 62 | 16 | 26% | books by 1c |
| Total | Under | 62 | 30 | 48% | Kalshi by 0.1c |
| All bets | Every side | 374 | 140 | 37% | books by 0.4c |
Weeks 2 through 5 of the 2026 NFL season: 63 games played from September 17 to October 12, 2026. Each side is compared at the last reading before kickoff: Kalshi’s ask plus the taker fee against the sportsbook’s price for the same side. The average difference is what the cheaper venue saved per $1 of payout.
The taker fee is not a flat charge. It runs at 0.07 times the price times one minus the price, which makes it largest when a contract sits near 50 cents and smaller as the price moves toward either end. On a 100-contract order that works out to about 0.6 cents per contract at 10 cents, 1.8 cents at 50 cents, and back down to 0.6 cents at 90 cents.
That shape shows up directly in the moneyline record. The table below sorts every priced side into five bands by the sportsbook’s price and shows how often Kalshi came out cheaper in each one. In this record, the middle of the market, roughly 30 to 55 cents, is where the sportsbook won most often, while the two ends, under 30 cents and above 70 cents, were the bands where Kalshi came out cheaper more often than not.
| Sportsbook price | Sides | Cheaper on Kalshi | Share | Average difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 30c (longer than +233) | 19 | 10 | 53% | books by 0.1c |
| 30c to 45c (+233 to +122) | 36 | 8 | 22% | books by 0.9c |
| 45c to 55c (near a pick’em) | 9 | 0 | 0% | books by 1.5c |
| 55c to 70c (-122 to -233) | 38 | 16 | 42% | even |
| 70c and up (shorter than -233) | 24 | 16 | 67% | Kalshi by 0.4c |
The taker fee is largest at 50 cents and shrinks toward either end, which is why the middle of the table is the hardest place for the exchange to win.
On Sunday, September 27, 2026, the Rams played the Broncos. The sportsbook had the Rams at -131, which is 56.7 cents. Kalshi’s ask on the Rams was 52 cents, and the taker fee at that price was 1.8 cents, for an all-in price of 53.8 cents, the equivalent of -116. Buying the Rams on Kalshi cost 2.9 cents less than buying them at the sportsbook. The Broncos won the game, which has no bearing on which side was cheaper to buy beforehand.
On Monday, September 28, 2026, the Eagles played the Bears. The sportsbook had the Bears at +192, which is 34.2 cents. Kalshi’s ask on the Bears was 37 cents, and the fee at that price was 1.6 cents, for an all-in price of 38.6 cents, the equivalent of +159. In that case the sportsbook was the cheaper place to buy the Bears, by 4.4 cents. The Bears went on to win that game, again with no connection to which venue had the better price.
The sportsbook price in this record is Pinnacle’s, a book that runs among the lowest margins in the industry. That makes it a hard number to beat, and it means this record says nothing about what the comparison looks like against a book with a wider hold built into its lines.
Before acting on a price that looks cheaper, a few things are worth checking. It has to be the same bet: Kalshi prices spreads and totals only at half points, so a sportsbook line sitting on a whole number has no matching contract to compare it to. The ask shown on screen may not fill a large order at that same price. A difference of a few tenths of a cent only turns into real money once the size of the bet is large enough to matter. Sportsbook boosts and promotions sit outside this record entirely, since the test only compares standing prices. And sports contracts are not available to everyone, since not every state permits them.
Cheaper is a statement about cost, nothing more. It says which venue charges less to buy a given side right now. It is not a reason to like that side, and it is not a claim about which venue wins out over time.
See also: Kalshi vs. the sportsbooks: this week’s NFL games · How to read a Kalshi price · Kalshi payout and fee calculator.