Will Rogers

The set-up: These teams are similar. They've both under-performed and they're both in need of a win. Each struggles with offense at times and both are terrible on the defensive end. Each will also view this as a contest that they can win tonight and because of that, I'm expecting an all out battle from start to finish. And then ultimately I believe this sense of extreme competition will help in keeping this total well below the posted number. Note that both teams also come in off beatdown losses, with the Suns falling 123-110 to the Hawks, while the Knicks dropped a 128-102 contest to the Bucks. Situationally this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring under in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Phoenix has seen the total dip under the number in three of its last four after failing to cover the spread in five or more consecutive games, while NY has seen the total go under in ten of 14 as a home dog this season. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Suns/Knicks.

The set-up: I think 4-13 MTSU comes in under the radar here and keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest vs. 11-6 FAU. The Blue Raiders have lost eight straight, while FAU has gone 9-3 in its last 12. The Owls though come off a poor 81-58 loss to UNT and with 11-6 UAB invading in two nights, I think this definitely sets up as a bit of a "trap" for the home side. On paper, clearly FAU is the better team. But losing wears on teams and I don't think we have to question MTSU's resolve and focus tonight. A great situational play for sure here in my opinion. 

The pick: Additionally note that MTSU is a sharp 7-2 ATS in its last nine off two straight losses against a conference rival, while FAU is already a poor 4-5 ATS this season vs. schools with losing records. No outright, but a 'nail-biter.' Grab the points.

10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Middle Tennessee State.

The set-up: The Golden Knights made a controversial coaching change which hasn't sat well with players, fans and the media. Expectations are so unreal in Las Vegas after its improbable run to the Stanley Cup Final in its inaugural season. Sometimes coaching changes have a positive effect right out of the gate for a team (just look at the Leafs this year as a prime example), but in this case I believe it's going to back fire. The Knights have lost four in a row and I think the Sens are going to pour it on here to try and pull off the upset and to kick this team while its down. Besides, the Sens could care less about a four-game win streak, as they enter desperate to break an eight-game slide. Situationally, this sets up great for the home side in my opinion. 

The pick: NOte as well that Las Vegas is a horrible 7-11 (-10.3 units) this year in all non-conference games. These are two poor teams. But in a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra time, I'm going to recommend to lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance.

10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Senators on the PUCK LINE.