Will Rogers

Braves (Fried, 1-0, 1.50) vs. Dodgers.

Today’s play is an action play.  Will it be third time lucky for Max Fried today? No one has been better than Fried lately. He has handled the Brewers and Dodgers successfully already and is operating on 5 days rest. He was 3-0 with an ERA of 1.90 in his last 7 regular season starts. Fried is a lefty which is an advantage when facing the Dodgers lineup. In fact, the Braves starter lineup is in good shape for its next trio of starts should they be necessary.

The same cannot be said for the Dodgers. It is likely Knebel will start, but another bullpen day is in store. Knebel was solid in the regular season, but struggled against the Braves in two relief appearances. A bullpen day would not be such a concern had the Dodgers pen not been so heavily used of late, to the tune of more than 5 innings per game. It is unclear who will make up the bulk of today’s innings, and the over-usage and overexposure of the Dodgers’ relievers plays into the Braves’ hands.

I am sure the Dodgers 2020 comeback is fixed in the Braves players’ minds. They will look to finish the series today, even knowing they have several chances. Today is their best opportunity to finish the Dodgers. The Braves team, peaking late in the series seem composed. Th mighty Dodgers do not. They have lost Turner, who was the Dodgers best hitter vs Fried this year. They are at home and still a favorite, but I am banking on Atlanta to finish this one today. Take the Braves +1 1/2..

Broncos/Browns

The Browns have a slew of injuries, including QB, a pair of running backs, and key pieces in the offensive line. When your leaders in passing, rushing and TDs are all out, the offense is in trouble. Not to mention a short week for Keenum to put things together. They are still 3 point favorites. Which doesn’t say much for the 3-3 Broncos, off three straight losses.

Bridgewater will start for the Broncos, but he is limping as well. He was sacked five times, and was hit well in the double figures last game. While he threw for three touchdowns, he also had three interceptions.

The highly touted Browns defense has stumbled badly two games in a row. Two stats to note; the Browns are 29th in the NFL in takeaways, and they are only averaging 2 sacks per game in their last two starts. The Broncos defense is rated at 9th which may be generous. They have been solid against the run. The Browns defense is reasonably intact, and may show up after two poor games. With an injury-weakened offensive line and a reserve quarterback, the Browns may not be putting up many points. Give Keenum at least the first half to find his feet. Take this game to go under the total in the first half.