Will Rogers

I like the Flames chances today, but the odds are prohibitive considering how close the series has been.  Hats off to the Stars for playing their tight defensive game successfuly against an offensively-gifted team and to Oettinger who has saved this series for the Stars to date.  The Stars were not a good road team this year and with Markstrom in net, their offense will be limited today but the possibility of overtime or an empty net goal makes today's total look a little light. I expect an all-out assault by the Flames' forwards.  Shop around and take the over today.

The Rangers are at home, facing the Penguins in the deciding game. Crosby is still questionable, a huge blow if he is out or compromised. Domingue will likely still be in goal for the Penguins, and the Rangers appear to have solved him; he has allowed 4 goals in his each of his last 2 games. Shesterkin has not been his Vezina-quality self in this series, giving up 3 goals in each of his last two games, and with a very unlikely save-percentage for the last part of the series.

The Rangers will have the final change, a distinct advantage in a tight series. Every game in this series has gone over, and it isn’t unreasonable to expect the same today. Crosby or no, the Penguins won’t go easily.

Take the Rangers and Penguins to go OVER again today.

Nationals starter Corbin finally connected with a good start, 5 innings of shut-out ball, but April was a very cruel month for him. He gave up 20 runs over 19 innings, so it will take another good start or two to believe his season has turned around. His mound opponent, the immortal Verlander has been as always, one- hitting the Twins over 8 innings in his last start, and giving up just 3 runs in his last 3 starts.

The Astros lost to the Nationals on Saturday which makes them 9-1 in their last 10 games. Other than Saturday’s game they have limited opposing teams to 3 runs or less, with a trio of shut-outs thrown in. Outside of last night, relievers have been particularly sharp for the Astros. They are an astounding 12-2 on the road and 10-2 vs left handed starters.

Not so the Nationals. Relievers have an ERA of over 4.2, and while the offense has been mostly solid, they’ve won just 3 of 10 games. They are a dismal 4-14 at home, and 7-15 vs right handers.

Look for the Astros to bounce back today. Take Houston on the run line at – 1 ½.

Padres’ starter Joe Musgrove (2.08) has been the picture of consistency, allowing no more than 2 runs per start in 6 outings. His last two have been 7 innings in length. Like his opponent on Sunday, he has 41 strikeouts.

His opponent, the Braves’ Kyle Wright (3.03) opened the season very well, but struggled his last time out allowing 6 runs in 4+ innings. His hits-allowed total has climbed noticeably in May.

The Braves pulled out a late win vs the Padres on Saturday, but are just 5-5 in their last 10 games, with a losing record at home and vs right-handers. The Padres are 11-5 on the road, but have lost a little of their shine lately and are also just 5-5 L10. Both bullpens have struggled in their last 5 games; the Braves’ has given up 8 runs in two games, and Padres’ pen, with a collective ERA of well over 4.00 lately, dropped four runs on Saturday.

Kyle Wright’s rising hit and base on balls count indicates that he is flirting with trouble.  He found it last time out, and he may find it again on Sunday.  Musgrove has much more of a track record, and with him pitching into the seventh inning, allows less bullpen time for the Padres. I am wagering on Musgrove and the underdog Padres tomorrow.

Taking the Under is typically a wise move in the NBA Playoffs when a series reaches a Game 7. That is precisely what I’ll do Sunday as it is winner take all between the Bucks and Celtics. 

Four of the six games in this particular series have been low-scoring with 204 or fewer total points scored. Games 4 and 5 both went Over, but then it was back to the Under in Game 6. I had the Under in that penultimate game. 

The first eight Milwaukee playoff games all stayed Under. The Bucks have played great defense in the playoffs, not only allowing just 100.5 points per game, but also the fewest number of points per possession (#1 in defensive efficiency). 

Boston led the league in scoring defense during the regular season (104.5 points per game allowed) and then have been slightly better here in the playoffs, giving up just 103.9 points per game. 

Will the Celtics hit 17 threes again as they did in Game 6? Not likely! This feels like a game where if either team gets to 100 (points), then they will come out the victor. I’m wagering on the Under in Game 7.