Will Rogers

The Orioles return home after an indifferent road trip.  They are a very good home team this year, up against a Royals team that is just 9-21 in away games.  Wells starts for the O's today.  He has been solid more often than not, with a ton of strikeouts this season.  He can be a victim of too many long balls, but is very sharp (2.45 ERA) at home this season.  Lefty Daniel Lynch has appeared in just two games since returning from injury, and has looked just average so far.  With one of the worst pens in the business, don't expect much support from the KC relievers today.

The Royals' run differential is a very unhealthy 2.4/5.1 in their last seven games.  They are a poor hitting team, especially so against right-handers. I expect a big day from Wells and the Orioles' top eight lineup today. Take Baltimore on the run line at -1 1/2. 9*!

The White Sox are heating up, sweeping Detroit and taking 2 of 3 from the Yankees.  They are starting their ace, but Cease has had a disappointing season so far.  He now could be emerging from his funk if his last start is an indication.  He'll face Eury Perez, the Marlins' young and touted right-hander.  Barely out of his teens, he has a 2.25 ERA to start his career.  His last two starts have been 5 run shutouts.  Perez appears to be limited to 5 innings and Cease has not pitched for length so this game may come down to the bullpen and the offense.  It is no surprise that the Marlins have the better bullpen, but they've also hit a ton lately, now 4th in the league in OPS over the last week.

I am not certain the Cease is "fixed", but it appears Perez can hold his own, and I have more confidence in the Marlins in the later innings at the moment.  Take the underdogs to win on the road on Friday.

The Bombers have decided to run it back, keeping a veteran laden roster for another go at the Grey Cup.  They have the least amount of changes in a league that has huge turnover year to year.  This should be effective at least for the first few games of the season as they will all be on the same page.  Only center Couture is gone from the O-line (although he was injured much of last year and replaced by this year’s starter Kolankowski).  All the skill positions on offence have returned and on defense Bighill (MLB) and DEs Jeffcoat and Jefferson are back.  This should bode well to start the season but lets check back on this in the Fall.

Hamilton is a different story.  They brought in declining QB Levi-Mitchell and star MLB Thurman from Calgary, star RB Butler from BC and DL Sayles from the Bombers to name a few newcomers.  They will take awhile to gel.  There is a good argument that Levi-Mitchell may not thrive.  Behind one of the best CFL O-lines in history (by the metric of sacks allowed) and with the leading CFL rusher Careyin Calgary, he has declined precipitously over the last few seasons.  In 2021 he threw for 8 yds/completion and a sad 10 TD/13 Int ratio.  In 2022 it was a 9 TD/6 Int ratio where due to injuries and performance he ceded the starters’ role to Maier.  His Hamilton O-line is not going to afford him the same luxury.  This may not be pretty. 

Part of the T-Cats’ personnel turnover was not positive as they lost three all-star starters in the secondary.  Winnipeg’s vaunted passing attack should excel.

The Bombers’ home record was 8-1 in 2022 while the TiCats’ road record was 2-7.

In their last 5 in June, against the spread the Bombers are 4-1.  The TiCats are 1-4 against the spread vs. Winnipeg and 1-3-1 against the spread in Winnipeg. Clearly you should lay the points and go with the Bombers to beat the spread.

The OU lines in this series have gotten lower and lower. They went from 218.5 to 216.5 to 213. Now, the Game 4 line is the lowest yet. Too low. Five of Denver's last eight visits here have still gone over the total. Now trailing 2-1, the Heat have seen the over go 4-1 their last 5, when behind in a series. You saw what happened in Game 2, when they were down 1-0. That game ended up with 219, the highest scoring game of the series. The Nuggets average 115.6 ppg. The Heat are going to have to score to keep up. This game goes OVER! 10* Playoff TOY