Stephen Nover

No American League team has been a bigger money-burner for bettors than the Twins, who at 26-39 are tied with the Tigers for last place in the AL Central Division.  Can the Twins stay this bad the rest of the season?  I don't believe so. One thing the Twins have done right is mash. They rank No. 2 in the majors in homers with 95. So a pitching matchup of Kenta Maeda versus southpaw Marco Gonzales sets up well for Minnesota.  So does the spot. The Twins draw the Mariners returning to Seattle for the first time in 12 days following a 10-game road swing that culminated with a surprising 6-2 victory against Shane Bieber and the Indians on Sunday.  Gonzales is having a difficult year at 1-4 with a 5.45 ERA. Gonzales has been tagged for eight homers in 36 1/3 innings. If you like metrics, here's one: Gonzales is giving up a whooping 41.4 percent fly ball percentage to righties. Minnesota's top three home run hitters are all right-handed - Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson and Miguel Sano. They've combined for 36 homers. Career-wise, Gonzales is 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA in two starts versus Minnesota.   The Twins are slated to start Kenta Maeda, who went 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA last year with Minnesota but is 2-2 with a 5.27 ERA this season. Maeda has been dealing with groin and arm injuries. This will be his first start since May 22 as he's been on IL. The Mariners have never faced him.  Maeda is a quality pitcher when healthy. He faces a Seattle lineup that ranks last in the majors in batting average at .209. The Mariners aren't likely to have their home run, on-base percentage and slugging percentage leader, Mitch Haniger, either. He fouled a pitch off his knee yesterday and had to leave the game. Seattle doesn't have nearly the offensive luxury to lose Haniger.  (Editor's note: Stephen Nover is 12-4 on his last 16 MLB side plays and has an underdog play topping his Monday baseball menu in addition to this free selection. Stephen also has his Stanley Cup Puck Line Game of the Year today and an NHL totals play. Stephen is 36-17-1 on his NHL big plays and has won four of his past five hockey totals plays.) 

I see this opening game of the Canadiens-Golden Knight series as a feeling-out process. Montreal hasn't played in a week. Las Vegas is in a bit of a flat spot after eliminating Colorado, a squad many thought was the best team in the West.  The Golden Knights surrendered the second-fewest goals in the NHL during the regular season at 2.2 per game. Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury is top level.  The Canadiens have stepped up their defense while riding the hot hand of goalie Carey Price to give up just nine goals during their last six games for a 1.5 average.  Price has been the hottest goalie of the playoffs with a 1.97 goals against average and a .935 save percentage in 11 games. 

Cincinnati starter Vladimir Gutierrez is a promising rookie with a 2-1 record, 2.65 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Milwaukee starter lefty Eric Lauer is a journeyman, who is the Brewers' No. 6 starter. He's 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. 

 Gutierrez beat the Brewers, 7-3, this past Wednesday with a quality start giving up two earned runs in seven innings with seven strikeouts. That was Milwaukee's lone loss in its last 10 games.  The Reds, though, also have been hot winning eight of their last 10. The Brewers padded their hot streak by beating the Pirates and Diamondbacks a combined seven times during their last 10 games.  Cincinnati is 6-3 on the season versus lefty starters. The Brewers have the superior defense and bullpen. The Reds, however, own a huge offensive edge and the better starting pitcher.  So at this plus price, I'll go with the Reds. 

Few, if any, thought Montreal would be one of the four finalists for the Stanley Cup. But here the Canadiens are. They are loose, playing on house money and in a great position to ambush the host Golden Knights in Monday's opening game of their semifinal series. 

 The Canadiens are rested and prepared having not played in a week after sweeping Winnipeg. The Golden Knights still could be partying after taking care of Colorado in a hard-fought, exciting six-game series that concluded Thursday night.  Las Vegas is the superior team. No argument there. But it's a mistake to underestimate Montreal like the oddsmaker has done. So taking 1 1/2 goals on the puck line with Montreal makes tremendous sense.  Can the Canadiens actually pull this first game upset? They just have to hang close - and there are signs they can do just that.  Montreal has won seven in a row. The Canadiens have a winning road mark. They also have defeated the Golden Knights during their past four meetings with the last coming last year since the teams did not meet this season. Las Vegas played only West Division teams. This is the Golden Knights' first game versus a team outside the West Division.  Carey Price could be the hottest goalie of the postseason. He's 8-3 with a 1.97 goals against average and a .935 save percentage. Las Vegas goalies, by comparison, have given up 2.4 goals during the playoffs with a .908 save percentage.  The Golden Knights lost Game 1 of their opening playoff series against the Wild. They also lost in Game 1 against Colorado.  The Canadiens eliminating the Maple Leafs was as impressive as the Golden Knights taking out the Avalanche.  Montreal would be 11-2 in its last 13 games if given 1 1/2 goals. Las Vega would be 3-6 in its last nine games if minus 1 1/2 goals.