Winning Picks from Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy

My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Pittsburgh at 6:40 pm et on Friday.

I think we have a sneaky-good starting pitching matchup here with Matthew Boyd going for the Cubs and Jared Jones for the Pirates. Add in a pitcher-friendly park in Pittsburgh and neutral hitting conditions and I'm comfortable projecting a relatively low-scoring affair between these divisional foes. Of note, the Pirates are favored here but do rank 30th in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. They'll look for a strong pitching performance from Jones to lead the way here. Take the under (8*).

A.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams lost yesterday in matinee affairs. We'll call for the Rays to rebound as they return home on Friday. This matchup will pit a pair of left-handed starting pitchers in Joey Cantillo for the Guardians and Shane McClanahan for the Rays. Cantillo has seen his FIP climb to 3.99 and his WHIP to 1.43. Last time out he allowed four earned runs on seven hits over just five innings in a 7-1 rout at home against the Pirates. The Guardians bats have been quiet against southpaw pitching all season, ranking near the bottom of the majors in most categories including 29th in xwOBA. McClanahan has quietly gone 8-6 with a 3.36 FIP and 1.15 WHIP this season. Cleveland's bullpen is in rough shape entering this series, coming off a 12-inning affair yesterday. Meanwhile, the Rays used Ian Seymour in long relief yesterday to get their bullpen in order heading into this series. They'll have all hands on deck in that department on Friday. Take Tampa Bay (10*).

My selection is on Toronto over Boston at 7:15 pm et on Friday.

I like the underdog price being offered with the Blue Jays in this series opener in Boston. Toronto has been struggling to be sure but did get an uplifting win to close out its series against Tampa Bay yesterday and while it's starting to look like a lost season, there are a lot of Blue Jays players that are auditioning for jobs with contending teams ahead of the trade deadline and I think that makes them dangerous, especially in an underdog role such as this. The Red Sox have been red hot to be sure. I'm not sure left-hander Patrick Sandoval is going to be a viable starting option down the stretch, however. He's made two starts, allowing 14 hits and six runs, five of them earned, in 9 1/3 innings of work. Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage hasn't been quite as good as advertised after making a splash late last season and into the playoffs. With that being said, he still owns a respectable 4.06 FIP and 1.16 WHIP. He dodged a Rays team that has worn him out to face the Red Sox, noting that Boston hitters have gone 4-for-33 (.121) with a .394 OPS against him including eight strikeouts and no walks. Take Toronto (8*).

N.L. Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington over Arizona at 6:45 pm et on Friday.

I really like the way this situation sets up for the Nationals on Friday. They moved back over the .500 mark with Wednesday's win in Denver and then got a much needed off day yesterday. Meanwhile, Arizona is feeling pretty good about itself but in a tough travel spot after going from Arizona to St. Louis for a make-up game yesterday and then onto Washington for the start of this series. Eduardo Rodriguez will get the start for the D'Backs on Friday. He's enjoyed a renaissance season of sorts, even earning an All-Star nod. However, he's been a little shaky lately. Last time out he allowed five earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings against the Cardinals. Prior to that he gave up three home runs over a two-start stretch. Note that Washington ranks second in the majors, behind only the Cubs, in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Carson Palmquist will start in what is likely an 'opener' role for the Nats. We're likely going to see plenty of Zack Littell for Washington in this game. He got lit up over eight innings last time out but that was at the most hitter-friendly park in baseball in Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. Prior to that he had held four straight opponents to two earned runs or less. Current D'Backs hitters are just 16-for-62 (.258) with a .755 OPS against him and Arizona ranks 29th in the majors in xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Take Washington (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles over New York at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

Roki Sasaki continues to get a bad rap in the betting marketplace but he's certainly pitched better lately, most recently holding the Yankees to one unearned run over 5 2/3 innings in a 2-1 win in the Bronx last Friday. The Mets are licking their wounds following a tough series in Milwaukee and will turn to journeyman left-hander Sean Manaea on Friday. Current Dodgers hitters have gone 41-for-143 (.287) with a .980 OPS against him. Look for Los Angeles to pick up the win in this series opener. Take Los Angeles (8*).

West Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Calgary plus the points over Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday.

This is a rematch of a Week 1 game that saw Winnipeg go on the road and deliver a 30-28 win in Calgary. I look for the Stampeders to get their revenge on Thursday. The Blue Bombers haven't done anything overly impressive since that Week 1 victory. They're 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS over their last five games, although they do enter this contest riding a three-game winning streak. All three of those wins came against East Division opponents and two of them came by two points or less. Calgary checks in 2-4 but has faced a considerably more difficult schedule than Winnipeg. The Stamps are coming off back-to-back losses in a home-and-home set against one of the best teams in the league in Montreal. The Stamps defense continues to struggle but again that's had a lot to do with the level of opposition they've faced. The Bombers have scored 30+ points in consecutive games but have also been held to fewer than 20 points on two different occasions this season and I look for them to take a step back here. Take Calgary (10*).