Winning Picks from Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy

N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington over Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday.

The Pirates and Nationals will conclude their three-game series with a matinee affair in Washington on Wednesday. Pittsburgh will hand the ball to Mitch Keller. He has never really been able to find his way at the big league level and is in the midst of another trying campaign having posted a 4.05 FIP and 1.42 WHIP, allowing north of 4.9 runs per nine innings. To put it simply, he’s allowing far too many hits and walks, 9.1 and 3.7 per nine innings, respectively. Of course the Pirates bullpen isn’t likely to do much behind Keller here, noting it entered last night’s game sporting an ugly 6.07 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with no saves converted and three blown over the last seven games (prior to last night's game). Paolo Espino will get the nod for the Nationals. We won with Washington in Espino’s most recent start as he once again pitched effectively in an eventual 2-1 win over the Rangers last Friday. Espino has lowered his FIP to 3.60 and WHIP to 1.11 and is giving up only 2.43 runs per nine innings this season. We’re not talking about all that small of a sample size either as Espino has worked over 40 innings. The Nationals bullpen has been serviceable lately, recording a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over its last seven contests (entering last night's game), converting four saves without blowing any over that stretch. Take Washington (10*).

Wednesday MLB Free play. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Oakland at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday.

A’s starter Cole Irvin went 10-15 with a 4.30 FIP and 1.33 WHIP last season. Little has changed in 2022, other than the fact that the A’s offense hasn’t been able to give him, or anyone else for that matter, nearly as much run support. Irvin checks in with a 4.30 FIP and 1.24 WHIP, giving up just shy of 3.6 runs per nine innings. Not awful numbers but I question how well he’ll hold up in his first career outing against the Yankees on Wednesday. Jameson Taillon will counter for New York. He’s coming off a rocky outing against the Astros last week as he gave up a couple of home runs early, eventually yielding six earned runs over 5 2/3 innings against the Astros. He’ll obviously be facing a much weaker hitting opponent here. Taillon is having a terrific campaign, having recorded a 3.31 FIP and 1.11 WHIP this season, allowing only 3.19 runs per nine innings. There’s no comparison between these two clubs when it comes to bullpen efficiency over the last week (entering last night’s game) with the A’s posting a 6.94 ERA and 1.84 WHIP and the Yanks’ relief corps recording a 1.21 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Take New York -1.5 runs.

Sean's RED HOT 43-24 MLB run and 27-12 MLB moneyline tear continues with another loaded card of action on Wednesday, keyed by his 10* N.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month for June; don't miss out!

My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Baltimore and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The White Sox let Orioles spot starter Austin Voth off the hook in some sense in his most recent outing. I don’t expect the Mariners to be as forgiving on Wednesday afternoon. Voth has worked 27 2/3 innings this season but I’ve seen enough to come to the conclusion that he’s not long for the O’s rotation. Voth has posted a 4.54 FIP and 1.92 WHIP, giving up north of 8.1 runs per nine innings in limited duty this season. Chris Flexen will counter for the Mariners. He has recorded a 4.64 FIP and 1.42 WHIP this season, allowing right around 4.3 runs per nine innings. Flexen continues to walk over 3.0 hitters per nine innings, while also yielding just under 10.0 hits. I expect the O’s to have plenty of scoring opportunities on Wednesday afternoon and I’m confident they can take advantage given how scrappy and productive they’ve been in recent weeks. We actually won with the ‘under’ in last night’s game - a 2-0 Mariners victory that didn’t see a run until the eighth inning - but I expect a much different story to unfold, at least early on, in Wednesday’s series finale. I have too much respect for two of the hottest bullpens in baseball right now so I’ll play the first five innings only here. Take the first five innings over (8*).

N.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami first five innings over St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Wednesday.

I’ll back the Marlins in the first five innings only on Wednesday as they send Sandy Alcantara to the mound against Andre Pallante of the Cardinals. Alcantara wasn’t at his best in his most recent start but still battled his way through seven innings against the Mets, ultimately foiled by a pair of home runs in the 5-3 setback. Keep in mind, he had given up just one home run in his previous nine outings so it’s not as if we’re seeing an emerging trend in that regard. Alcantara enters Wednesday’s start sporting a fantastic 3.03 FIP and 0.95 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.45 runs per nine innings in over 100 innings of work. Pallante started on four days’ rest for the first time in his young career last time out and pitched reasonably well in a 3-0 home loss to the Cubs (he lasted six innings). I question how he’ll hold up making a second consecutive start on short rest here, however. Pallante has recorded a pedestrian 4.28 FIP and 1.38 WHIP yet has somehow given up only 2.03 runs per nine innings. As good as the Cards defense is, I don’t believe that’s sustainable. We’ll aim to avoid the bullpen matchup here as the Cards have been in much better recent form in that regard and the Marlins have blown eight saves compared to nine converted on the road this season. Take Miami first five innings (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

As is often the case, the Rockies appear to be outmatched in terms of the starting pitching matchup on Wednesday. Julio Urias will get the start for the visiting Dodgers. While he hasn’t necessarily been his dominant self, he has still held up reasonably well for Los Angeles this season, posting a 4.10 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while limiting the damage to just 3.3 runs per nine innings. Those numbers are vastly superior to those of his counterpart on Wednesday, German Marquez. The Rockies veteran right-hander has recorded a 4.85 FIP and 1.50 WHIP, giving up more than 10 hits and three walks per nine innings, leading to a whopping 6.25 runs allowed per nine frames. Of course, the later innings should belong to the Dodgers here as well as their bullpen entered last night’s game sporting a 2.49 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Rockies ‘pen had posted a collective 5.40 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday.

This might be the best starting pitching matchup on the entire MLB board on Wednesday as the White Sox send Michael Kopech to the hill against Shohei Ohtani of the Angels. Kopech hasn’t had his best stuff over his last two starts, allowing seven earned runs in 11 innings in consecutive losses against the Astros and Orioles. His overall numbers remain solid, however, as Kopech has posted a 3.62 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing less than 2.9 runs per nine innings. Ohtani has been even better for the Angels, quietly putting together another fine campaign having recorded a 2.76 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while yielding an identical 2.9 runs per nine innings. While the Angels bullpen has been a little uneven lately, it might not be asked to do much here as Ohtani averages over six innings per start at home this season, lasting at least six fames in seven of his last eight outings. Chicago’s ‘pen has been better on the road than at home this season, posting a collective 3.12 ERA and 1.15 WHIP (entering last night’s action). Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday.

This N.L. Central showdown has all the makings of a slugfest at Wrigley Field on Wednesday. Rookie Hunter Greene will get another turn in the rotation for the Reds, despite his recent struggles. Keep in mind, this will be his second start against the Cubs this season after allowing five earned runs on seven hits, including three home runs, in just five innings of work back in late May (the Reds won that game 20-5). Greene owns an ugly 5.70 FIP and 1.36 WHIP this season, yielding 2.6 home runs per nine innings. Opponents are averaging just shy of 5.7 runs per nine innings off of the right-hander. Behind Green is a Reds bullpen that entered this series sporting a collective 7.53 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over the last seven games. Justin Steele will counter for the Cubs. He’s had an up-and-down season but there have been more downs than ups recently as he has lasted a full six innings just twice in his last seven outings. For the season, Steele has recorded a 3.59 FIP and 1.45 WHIP with his hits (9.0) and walks (4.0) allowed per nine innings certainly a concern. Opponents have reached Steele for an average of 5.29 runs per nine innings. The Cubs bullpen has held up reasonably well lately but has been anything but lights out at Wrigley Field this season, posting a collective 4.58 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with only four saves converted and six blown (entering last night’s action). Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

We have a terrific starting pitching matchup lined up on Tuesday in Toronto. Canadian Nick Pivetta will start in his home country for the Red Sox and he’ll do so in fine form, having posted a 3.56 FIP and 1.11 WHIP this season. He has allowed only 3.25 runs per nine innings. Pivetta has struggled in two previous outings against the Blue Jays this season but those came back in April when he was struggling. He’s pitched far better since and I look for him to minimize the damage against a tough Blue Jays lineup on Wednesday. Alek Monoah will counter for Toronto. He’s having a tremendous sophomore campaign, recording a 3.04 FIP and 0.96 WHIP while giving up only 2.36 runs per nine innings. The Jays struggling bullpen is certainly a concern but Manoah has shown the ability to consistently work deep into ball games, particularly here at home where he averages just shy of 6 2/3 innings per start, having made seven starts at Rogers Centre this season. Take the under (9*).