Winning Picks from Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy

My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Portland at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

I'm not buying the line move here with the Magic shifting from a short favorite to a short underdog. Yes, the Blazers are coming off an upset win in Washington (without Bradley Beal) on Saturday but they're still just 3-14 on the road this season. They're expected to get C.J. McCollum back on Monday night which obviously gives them a boost, but he's likely to be limited in his first game back. Wins have been few and far between for the Magic but they're just one game removed from posting an impressive victory in Charlotte on Friday. They've been slowly getting back some of their injured players with Jalen Suggs returning in that win over Charlotte and proceeding to score 28 points and add nine assists and nine rebounds in 45 minutes in two games. As bad as the Magic have been in recent years they've actually outscored opponents by 0.8 points on average when the line is between +3 and -3 over the last three seasons. The Blazers are off a win as I mentioned but they're also just one game removed from giving up 140 points on a ridiculous 63% shooting in a 32-point loss to the Nuggets. The Magic are by no means the Nuggets but I do expect them to have a good night against the Blazers on Monday. Take Orlando (8*).

My selection is on Northeastern plus the points over Delaware at 7 pm et on Monday.

Most had Northeastern to finish second, perhaps third in the Colonial Athletic Association this season. Things haven't gone the Huskies way, however, with some bad luck (and admittedly poor execution) leading to a 6-10 overall record and an stunning 0-5 in-conference mark. I believe everything is still in front of them, however, with five of their next seven games coming at home, but the turnaround needs to start now. Delaware has more or less had 'luck' on its side over the course of the season and particularly of late. The Blue Hens last two wins came by a combined five points. To take an honest look at their resume so far this season, there really aren't many overly impressive wins. Note that they've faced the 233rd toughest schedule according to KenPom. Northeastern, on the other hand, ranks 153rd in terms of adjusted strength of schedule. Looking to avenge a 2-0 series sweep at the hands of Delaware last year and noting that the last time the Blue Hens posted back-to-back victories in this series was way back in 2014, I'll back the Huskies to come up big on their home floor on Monday. Take Northeastern (8*).

NHL Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Seattle at 5:05 pm et on Monday.

This total has been set too low, largely due to recent results. Note that the first meeting between these two teams this season totalled six goals as the Blackhawks skated to a 4-2 win here in Seattle. Chicago enters this game having allowed two goals or less in four straight games. Keep in mind, we're talking about a team that has allowed 3.2 goals per game this season and 3.4 goals per game on the road. Seattle is reeling right now and has scored only two goals over its last two games. The Kraken do average 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season. Note that the 'over' has gone 7-1 with the Kraken coming off a loss by two goals or more against a division rival this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. As for the Blackhawks, the 'over' is 9-1 with Chicago coming off three consecutive games allowing two goals or less, which is the situation here. That spot has produced an average total of 7.0 goals. Take the over (10*).

NBA Eastern Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 2:10 pm et on Monday.

I'll grab all the points I can get with the Wizards in this game as they look to bounce back from Saturday's disappointing home loss to the undermanned Blazers, and snap a two-game skid in this series with the 76ers. Philadelphia is coming off an outright underdog win in Miami on Saturday. I don't need to tell you that wasn't really a true 'upset'. The 76ers are one of the Eastern Conference's best teams and they're coming off consecutive wins over the Celtics and aforementioned Heat. I believe a letdown may be in order here, however. While the Sixers are 16-8 on the road this season they've actually only outscored opponents by 1.6 points on average. Meanwhile, the Wizards are in one of their most favorable spots here, having gone 33-19 ATS in their last 52 home games when coming off a loss. Bradley Beal may be back for the Wiz this afternoon but even if he's not I like the way this spot sets up. Consider it a bonus if he's able to go. Take Washington (10*).

Monday NBA Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday.

Consider the Lakers 133-96 loss in Denver two nights ago to be rock-bottom. Lebron James essentially came out and said as much following that contest. The 'over' has now cashed in five straight games involving the Lakers but I expect that streak to grind to a halt here. The Jazz come into this one off a 125-102 win in Denver last night. They needed to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard in that one in order to overcome the exploits of Nikola Jokic. There's no one on the Lakers playing at anywhere near Jokic's level right now. Note that the Jazz are allowing just 106.1 points per game on the road this season. Noting that the Lakers have allowed 120+ points in three straight games, they obviously need to tighten things up here. They've given up 120+ in three in a row only once previously this season and in their next game they held the Grizzlies to only 104 points in a game that totalled only 203 points. The 'under' has gone an incredible 12-1 the last 13 times the Lakers have come off three consecutive games allowing opponents to shoot 50% or better, which is the case here. While Los Angeles is coming off a 96-point effort last time out, the Jazz are just one game removed from scoring only 91 points in a home loss to the Cavs. I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under.

Monday NHL Free play. My selection is on Detroit over Buffalo at 1:05 pm et on Monday.

We won with the Red Wings in this same matchup on Saturday as they skated to an easy 4-0 victory. That was Detroit's third win over Buffalo in as many meetings this season and I expect more of the same on Monday afternoon. Note that Buffalo is 0-9 when seeking revenge for a loss where its opponent scored four goals or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.8 goals in that situation. The Sabres are also 0-10 in their last 10 games following a shutout defeat going back to last season, outscored by 2.1 goals on average in that spot. While the Red Wings are as healthy as they've been in quite some time, the Sabres are still dealing with injuries to their top four goaltenders, forced to go with Aaron Dell and his .889 save percentage over the last couple of games. For Detroit, this is a key spot to grab a couple of points before a three-day layoff. Take Detroit.

NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

As much as we'd all like to see an entertaining, back-and-forth shootout to close out Wild Card weekend, I don't think we're going to get it when the Cards and Rams match up for the third time this season on Monday night. The Arizona offense is a shadow of its former self right now. It seems like an eternity ago that the Cards boatraced the Rams in a 37-20 stunner here at So-Fi Stadium back in early October. Let's face it, the Cards offense has been hamstrung since losing WE DeAndre Hopkins. The fact that TE Zach Ertz has essentially become the focal point of the passing game is telling. QB Kyler Murray has been running for his life most games (he was sacked five times against Seattle last week). Now he faces a Rams defense that has seemingly figured him out, holding him to just eight all-purpose touchdowns in six career matchups not to mention a very pedestrian 6.8 yards per pass attempt. The last time these two teams met Murray had the benefit of facing a Rams defense that was without Jalen Ramsey due to Covid protocols. With all of that being said, there is a path for the Cards to stay competitive in this game and that involves effectively shortening it by running the football (both James Conner and Chase Edmonds are apparently good to go health-wise) and playing smart, fundamentally-sound defense. Let's face it, the Cards defense wasn't good in last week's loss to the Seahawks. We know they're capable of better though and there is help on the way with J.J. Watt, Jordan Phillips and Marco Wilson expected back from injury. No Watt isn't the game-changer he once was, but his presence is a factor on this defense. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Cards have come off a game in which they allowed 30+ points, with that situation producing an average total of just 41.6 points. The 'under' is also an identical 12-4 in Arizona's last 16 road games and Los Angeles' last 16 home games with those games producing totals well below the number we're working with here. Take the under (10*).