Winning Picks from Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy

My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Rockets shot a blistering 51.6% and 54% from the field in consecutive losses in Memphis earlier this week but I expect nothing of the sort as they continue their road trip (and likely their losing streak) in Cleveland on Sunday. There's really been nothing special about the Rockets offense lately, they simply had a couple of strong performances against an opponent that didn't necessarily take them all that seriously (in the first game of the two-game set in particular). Note that Houston has still been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in three of its last seven contests. The Cavs rallied for a win in Brooklyn last time out - their third win in a row. Note that Cleveland has hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in eight straight games. Even in their most recent game, where they trailed much of the way and needed to stage a late-game comeback, they still weren't all that interested in really pushing the pace. Defensively, the Cavs are locked-in right now having held three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals and nine of their last 11 foes to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. The only previous time they faced the Rockets this season they yielded just 76 FG attempts in a 113-95 road victory. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 11-3 with the Rockets coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 221.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 42-29 with Cleveland coming off an 'over' result over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of only 213.9 points. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Charlotte at 1:10 pm et on Sunday.

A quick revenge spot for the down-trodden Mavericks here as they look to snap a three-game losing streak and avenge Friday's stunning nine-point home loss against the Hornets. Likely to have their full compliments of players at their disposal, I expect the Mavs to put forth a much sharper performance than we saw on Friday. Keep in mind, that last game against the Hornets came on the heels of consecutive gut-wrenching losses to the Grizzlies and Warriors (by a combined six points). The Mavs overlooked the lowly Hornets, plain and simple. They won't here as this road trip will only get tougher with stops in Indiana, Philadelphia, Miami and Atlanta on deck. The Hornets are without Terry Rozier while Kelly Oubre continues to battle through a shoulder injury (he is expected to play). Here, we'll note that Dallas is 19-5 ATS when playing on the road off an outright upset loss over the last three seasons. Take Dallas (8*).

Sunday CBB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Creighton and San Diego State at 2:20 pm et on Sunday.

I expect San Diego State to at least attempt to make this game as physical as possible in an effort to throw the red hot Blue Jays offense off course. While I do think the Aztecs can be successful in doing that, I question whether their own offense can produce enough to prevail on Sunday. The 'under' has now cashed in each of San Diego State's last 12 games and I don't think that's a streak we should get in the way off right now. To say that the Aztecs defensive performance against one-seed Alabama on Friday was impressive would be an understatement. They held the Crimson Tide to a woeful 23-of-71 shooting in that contest. In fact, you would have to go all the way back to February 25th against New Mexico to find the last time San Diego State allowed an opponent to knock down more than 23 field goals in a game. Creighton, on the other hand, has allowed a ton of made field goals in recent weeks but also plays at a much faster pace. Note that each of the Blue Jays last seven opponents have hoisted up at least 62 field goal attempts. I think they'll be hard-pressed to speed up a methodical San Diego State offense here though. The Aztecs check in ranked 255th (out of 364 Division I teams) in terms of adjusted tempo this season, according to KenPom. Note that the 'under' is 15-5 with Creighton having won six or seven of its last eight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 130.6 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 12-3 in all tournament games involving San Diego State over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 127.3 points along the way. Take the under.

Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Texas at 5:05 pm et on Sunday.

While I can understand the logic behind this total sitting in the high-140's on Sunday, I believe it will prove too high. Miami comes off consecutive 'over' results. It hasn't seen three straight games go 'over' the total since January 11th to 16th - the only previous time this season it produced such a streak. Texas had its seven-game 'under' streak snapped in its win over Xavier on Friday. The Longhorns haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since February 6th and 11th. Texas has been on fire offensive, knocking down 31 or more field goals in each of its last four contests. It figures to be tested here, however, noting that while Miami's offense has impressed, it's defensive play has perhaps been even better, holding all three opponents in this tournament to 26 or fewer made field goals. Despite allowing Alabama to get off 64 field goal attempts on Friday, it still allowed just 24 made field goals. The Hurricanes have made good on 29 or more field goals in four of their last five games overall. Keep in mind, Texas hasn't allowed an opponent to reach that number since way back on February 18th against Oklahoma. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with the Canes playing away from home after scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 140 points in that spot. Take the under (10*).