Winning Picks from Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy

My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and New York at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

A lot of bettors are anticipating a reversal of course as far as the total goes in this series with the scene shifting to New York for Game 3. As I've said from the start of this series, the Knicks prefer to run a slow, methodical offense and I don't think that's going to change now that they're up 2-0 in the series heading home. The pace hasn't been there to indicate we're likely to see a sudden uptick in scoring in Game 3. Off consecutive 'under' results, it's worth noting that the Spurs have delivered three different 'under' streaks lasting three games going back to March 1st. Meanwhile, the Knicks have posted four different 'under' streaks lasting at least three games going back to February 21st. We will see an 'over' result at some point in this series but I'm not convinced it will be in Game 3. Take the under (8*). 

My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cleveland at 6:40 pm et on Monday.

I like the way this one sets up as a low-scoring affair to open this rematch series after the two teams met in the Bronx last week. Neither team is hitting particularly well right now. The Yankees check in ranked 26th in the majors in xwOBA over the last week while the Guardians sit two spots behind them. We have a fine starting pitching matchup on Monday with Will Warren going for the Yanks and Gavin Williams for the Guardians. Williams in particular has been lights out at home this season, sporting a sub-3.00 ERA. Warren figures to have a fresh arm having not started since May 31st. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in three of his last four starts and has posted a 3.22 ERA and 3.28 FIP in 12 outings this season. Both bullpens figure to have all hands on deck for this one. We're talking about two of the better relief corps' in baseball this season as both have recorded sub-4.00 ERA's and have converted a combined 39 saves while blowing only 14. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and the Athletics at 10:05 pm et on Monday.

I think we'll see plenty of offense in this game on Monday as the Brewers and Athletics open an interleague series in Las Vegas, yes Las Vegas, as the A's get a preview of the city they'll call home in the not-so-distant future. Kyle Harrison takes the ball for Milwaukee. He's posted terrific numbers lately but he's also faced a rather weak slate of opponents and has had the benefit of making the majority of his starts at American Family Field in Milwaukee. Pitching in this Triple-A park is far more unforgiving and Harrison will be up against one of the better offenses in baseball in the A's. Current A's hitters haven't seen much of Harrison with none of them having faced him more than two times (they've gone a collective 3-for-8). The A's will turn to a struggling Jeffrey Springs to open this series. Springs has allowed 10 earned runs over his last three starts, covering a span of 15 innings. He's been tagged for seven home runs over his last four starts and things won't get any easier as he tries to keep the ball in the park here in Vegas. The Brewers check in ranked second in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. The problem for the A's here is that their three options as long relievers figure to be out of commission after getting extended work over the last few days in Houston. Meanwhile, the Brewers bullpen has been terrific but is currently being tested depth-wise with three different relievers dealing with injuries. Milwaukee's 'pen has been pressed into duty for just shy of 30 innings over the last week. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on Connecticut plus the points over New York at 7 pm et on Monday.

I can't help but feel the Liberty are in for a letdown on Monday as they check in off four straight victories both SU and ATS including a come-from-behind win over the Fever two nights ago. Connecticut has lost consecutive games since notching an 'upset' win at home against Los Angeles on May 30th. The Sun have been idle since Friday's loss but ATS cover in Chicago. I don't feel the Liberty should be laying this many points when they've knocked down 28 or fewer field goals in six of their last seven games and have yielded 72 or more field goal attempts to the opposition in three of their last five contests. Look for the Sun to keep this one much closer than they did in the first meeting between the two teams this season (the Liberty won 106-75 at home back on opening night). Take Connecticut (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Connecticut at 7 pm et on Monday.

The Liberty rallied for an 83-75 win over the Fever on Saturday, notching their fourth straight victory both SU and ATS. Of note, the 'under' has now cashed in six of their last seven games and I look for that trend to continue on Monday in Connecticut. New York may be known for its offensive prowess but it has struggled in that regard due to injuries and otherwise so far this season and certainly of late. The Liberty have connected on 28 or fewer field goals in six of their last seven contests. Sabrina Ionescu suffered a setback in her recovery from a back injury over the weekend and will be forced to miss another game on Monday. The good news for the Liberty is that they'll be facing the league-worst Sun on Monday. Connecticut has won just twice in 12 games and you would have to go back seven games to find the last time they connected on more than 30 field goals. They don't play at a fast pace, hoisting up 67 or fewer field goal attempts in six of their last eight contests. Whether by game script or not, the Sun's opposition hasn't had to force the envelope offensively. Connecticut has yielded 68 or fewer field goal attempts to the opposition in four straight and eight of its last nine games. The first meeting between these two teams this season produced 181 total points but that was thanks to a blistering shooting performance from the Liberty. Remember, they opened the season firing on all cylinders offensively, connecting on 35 or more field goals in three of their first four games. They haven't reached that number in eight games since. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Washington plus the points over Indiana at 7 pm et on Monday.

Bettors continue to flock to the Fever, despite the fact that they're off to a disappointing 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS start to the season. While known for their offensive prowess, they've been held to 30 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. Washington figures to be in a foul mood after suffering an ugly 109-77 loss in Atlanta on Saturday (we won with the Dream in that game). The Mystics have alternated wins and losses over their last four games. The fact that this is a 'revenge' spot for Indiana has been factored into this line in my opinion. Of course 'revenge' is generally a dish best served at home and I expect that to hold true on Monday. Take Washington (8*).

Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over New York at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

The Knicks have full control of this series as the scene shifts to New York for Game 3 on Monday. The fact that the Spurs have dropped the cash in each of the first two games in this series is notable as they've lost three straight games ATS just once dating back to January 2nd, that coming during a three-game ATS slide in mid-January, and only three times all season. As I've noted previously in this series, the Knicks are into uncharted territory as they're riding a season-high 13-game winning streak, not to mention the fact that they've now matched their season-high with eight straight ATS victories. The only other time they rattled off eight consecutive ATS wins was from January 21st to February 4th before losing by 38 points in Detroit on February 6th. Bettors figure to back the Knicks in droves at this short number but we'll go the other way and call for the Spurs to get back in the series. Take San Antonio (10*).