Winning Picks from Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy

My selection is on Minnesota over Toronto at 1:35 pm et on Sunday.

There's certainly been a lot of disappointment in Toronto in the early going this season and the Twins added to the Blue Jays misery yesterday, handing them their seventh loss in their last nine games. I think the price is right to back Minnesota again on Sunday as it sends Taj Bradley to the hill against veteran Max Scherzer of Toronto. Scherzer was forced to exit his most recent start against the Dodgers early with forearm tightness. I can't help but feel that 'Father Time' is catching up with Scherzer at this point. Current Twins hitters have gone 22-for-68 (.324) with a 1.042 OPS against him with three different players delivering multiple home runs. I honestly can't say a lot of positive things about Taj Bradley as his career body of work at the big league level has not been great. However, he is off to a 2-0 start this season and pitching with confidence having logged a 1.56 FIP and 1.08 WHIP through 16 2/3 innings of work. I do think he's the better option than Scherzer and the Twins are without question playing better baseball than the Jays right now. Take Minnesota (8*).

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee -1.5 runs over Washington at 2:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Brewers bandwagon should be fully cleared after they dropped a second straight game to open this series against the Nationals. I like their chances of bouncing back on Sunday and we're getting a plus-money return to lay the extra run. Zack Littell will take the ball for Washington. I don't think he's a viable big league starter to put it bluntly. Littell's career year as a starter came in 2024 when he went 8-10 with a 3.88 FIP and 1.25 WHIP. Last year he posted a 4.88 FIP and so far this season he has logged a 5.82 FIP through 10 innings of work. The Nationals already thin bullpen will likely be without a pair of options on Sunday with two relievers working each of the first two games of this series. Meanwhile, it will be all hands on deck for the Brewers bullpen after using just two relievers for a combined 17 pitches last night. Veteran Brandon Woodruff will be tasked with helping Milwaukee end its four-game slide. He showed he still had plenty of tread left on his tires last year, posting a 3.17 FIP and 0.91 WHIP in 12 starts, going 7-2 along the way. He hasn't been quite as sharp so far this season but I do expect the veteran right-hander to settle in and like the way this matchup sets up against what projects as one of the weaker lineups in baseball, even if it hasn't necessarily played out that way so far this season. Take Milwaukee -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Montreal over New York at 6:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Islanders are in a free-fall right now, losers of five of their last six games including yesterday's lifeless 3-0 defeat at home against the Senators. They might just be in the wrong place at the wrong time again on Sunday as Montreal checks in off an ugly home loss against the Blue Jackets last night. The Canadiens still have plenty to play for as they battle for critical home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Of course, Montreal has played some of its best hockey on the road this season, where it has outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.4 goals. Noting that it hasn't lost consecutive games since March 14th and 15th, I'm confident we'll see it bounce back on Sunday. Take Montreal (8*).

My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Detroit at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

We'll fade the Pistons off Friday's 'upset' win in Charlotte. Detroit has welcomed Cade Cunningham back to the lineup just in time for the postseason and he had a terrific game against Charlotte on Friday. I'm not convinced Detroit will be able to resist the temptation to 'call off the dogs' at some point in this game, however. The Pistons are coming off consecutive wins both SU and ATS and have to feel satisfied with the number one seed in the Eastern Conference all theirs. The Pacers have quietly been an outstanding bet down the stretch, going 10-2 ATS over their last 12 games including back-to-back ATS victories entering Sunday's home finale. They dropped the most recent meeting between these two teams in lopsided fashion, 121-78 in Detroit back on January 17th. The two previous matchups in Motown were no contest but Indiana did take Detroit down to the wire in the lone previous meeting here in Indiana, dropping a 122-117 decision as a +9.5-point underdog on November 24th. Take Indiana (8*).

My selection is on Charlotte minus the points over New York at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Hornets couldn't have been pleased with their performance on Friday as they dropped a 118-100 'upset' decision at home against the Pistons. It doesn't sound like Charlotte will be resting its starters on Sunday - the line certainly points to that - but even if it does implement some form of  'load management', I still expect it to win by margin against a makeshift Knicks team. New York will rest its starters with the exception of Mikal Bridges, who will make a cameo appearance to keep his games played streak alive. Unlike the Hornets, the Knicks are fresh off a decisive victory over the Raptors on Friday, marking their fourth straight ATS win. Apart from their current streak, they haven't enjoyed a ton of pointspread success down the stretch, going 3-10 ATS in their 13 games prior. The Hornets are coming off back-to-back ATS defeats but have lost more than two in a row ATS just once going all the way back to November 12th. Take Charlotte (8*).

My selection is on Washington plus the points over Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

Whether by design or not, the Wizards have done a masterful job of 'tanking' this season but now their work is just about done. The Wizards enter Sunday's regular season finale in Cleveland on a nine-game SU and four-game ATS losing streak. Of note, that four-game ATS slide marks their longest since dropping the cash in five straight games back in mid-January. The Cavaliers rolled over in Friday's 124-102 loss in Atlanta and won't play any of its regulars in Sunday's home finale. While Cleveland might still be able to outlast an awful Washington team, I'm not convinced it will win by margin, noting that ATS defeats have had a tendency to come in bunches for the Cavs down the stretch (five ATS losing streaks since February 20th) and even with all hands on deck, they've had a tendency to get involved in plenty of tightly-contested affairs. Take Washington (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Milwaukee at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

You had to figure the 76ers would 'go for it', even in a tough back-to-back spot on Friday, and they did - sort of - in a 105-94 victory in Indiana. All indications are that they'll play their starters again on Sunday (with the exception of Joel Embiid who recovers from an appendectomy) as they wrap up the regular season with a home game against the skeleton crew that is the Milwaukee Bucks. Philadelphia enters this contest on a four-game ATS slide. That actually has it approaching uncharted territory as it has yet to lose more than four games in a row ATS this season. Milwaukee looks like it is waving the white flag on Sunday based on its injury report. The Bucks did deliver a 125-108 win over the lowly Nets on Friday. that only served to snap their two-game SU and ATS slide. They've put together just two ATS winning streaks since February 27th. Note that they're 0-3 SU and ATS against Philadelphia this season. Take Philadelphia (8*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and New York at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Hornets are coming off back-to-back 'under' results while the Knicks were involved in a 'snail's pace' affair against the Raptors on Friday, also resulting in an 'under'. I think a different story unfolds in Sunday's regular season finale. The Knicks won't start their regulars, apart from Mikal Bridges, who will only make a cameo appearance to keep his games played streak alive. I actually think we'll see New York play a little faster than we're accustomed to without Jalen Brunson running the point in this one, and the Hornets figure to oblige them. Charlotte has not played tough defense down the stretch, allowing four of its last five opponents to connect on 42 or more field goals despite a below-average pace. The Hornets will certainly want to bounce back here after suffering back-to-back losses in Boston and at home against Detroit. Charlotte shot poorly in both of those contests but we know this is a team that can score in bunches and the expectation is that we'll see its regulars for at least some of this game. The fact that the most recent meeting between these two teams were involved in a game that totalled only 217 points on March 26th also keeps 'over' bettors at bay here, giving us a reasonable number to work with. Take the over (10*).