Winning Picks from Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy

My selection is on St. Louis over Miami at 8:15 pm et on Monday.

The Cardinals return home licking their wounds following a series sweep at the hands of the rival Cubs. I like their chances of getting back on track here as they open a series with the Marlins, who check in 13-22 while averaging just 3.7 runs per game on the road this season.

Braxton Garrett will get his second start of the season for Miami. He wasn't great in his season debut, lasting just four innings while allowing two earned runs on five hits while striking out only three and walking three. Garrett has now made three big league starts and has yet to last more than five innings in any of them. That opens the door for a Marlins bullpen that has posted a 4.29 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the road this season, blowing eight save opportunities while converting only six.

Adam Wainwright will counter for the Cardinals. He's enjoyed a renaissance of sorts so far this season, particularly at home where he has recorded a stellar 2.62 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in eight starts. He's averaging just under seven innings per start here at home. Behind him is a Cards bullpen that has posted a collective 4.46 ERA and 1.43 WHIP at home this season - not all that impressive by any means, however, that same 'pen has converted 12 saves compared to just one blown here in St. Louis. Take St. Louis (9*).

Monday NBA Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Monday.

The Jazz have now allowed over 100 points in eight straight games with the 'over' going 7-1 over that stretch. That's their longest such streak since opening the season allowing more than 100 points in nine straight contests. While I'm not sure they'll hold the Clippers to fewer than 100 points here, I do think they'll bounce back defensively and help keep this one 'under' the total.

Utah had been locked in defensively, holding five straight opponents to 47.1% shooting or worse over its last five games prior to giving up a whopping 132 points on 56.2% shooting in Game 3 of this series on Saturday. A letdown was certainly in order for the Jazz in that contest as they had taken the first two games in the series. Here, I look for the Jazz to settle down a bit and do a better job of keeping the Clippers offense in check.

Los Angeles has held the opposition to 108.4 points per game on 46.3% shooting here at home this season. It checks in allowing 107.9 points per contest after giving up 105 points or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons.

The 'over' has now cashed in each of the last two games after the 'under' had gone 3-1 in the first four meetings between these two teams this season. I look for a return to form here as both teams tighten things up, knowing the importance of this pivotal Game 4 matchup. Take the under (8*).

Sean is riding an INCREDIBLE 36-16 (+$1,707) run across the board and he's ready to cash in AGAIN on Monday! Your best bet is a weekly or monthly subscription package, giving you access to ALL of Murph's winners every day!

Monday MLB Free play. My selection is on San Francisco over Arizona at 9:45 pm et on Monday.

The D'Backs just can't get out of their own way right now, losers of 10 games in a row entering Monday's series-opener in San Francisco. Look for the Giants to add to the D'Backs misery in this one.

Matt Peacock will take the ball for Arizona. While we are talking about a small sample size of just three starts, he has posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.63 WHIP on the road this season. Given the fact that he averages just 4.5 innings per start overall this year, we should see plenty of a Snakes bullpen that has just three saves to their credit compared to seven blown save opportunities on the road this season.

Alex Wood will counter for San Francisco. He's been solid here at home, posting a 3.94 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in five starts this season - three of them resulting in Giants victories. Wood is averaging just a shade under six innings per start at home and working behind him is a terrific Giants bullpen that has posted a collective 2.47 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 11 saves compared to only two blown at home this season.

San Francisco checks in 18-9 at home this season, where it outscores the opposition by 0.8 runs per game. While we're dealing with a fairly steep price, I believe it could be even higher. Take San Francisco (8*).

Sean is riding an INCREDIBLE 36-16 (+$1,707) run across the board and he's ready to cash in AGAIN on Monday! Your best bet is a weekly or monthly subscription package, giving you access to ALL of Murph's winners every day!

A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

The Angels are red hot on the heels of consecutive three-game sweeps of the D'Backs and Royals, winners of eight of their last nine games overall. However, the A's are rolling as well, fresh off three straight wins over the Royals and riding a 9-2 run over their last 11 games. I like the home side to keep it going on Monday night.

Dylan Bundy will take the ball for the Angels. The wheels have come off for him a little bit lately as he's failed to last at least six innings in five straight starts and checks in sporting a 6.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in five nighttime starts this season. The A's have seemingly figured him out over their last couple of games against him, scoring six earned runs on 12 hits in only eight innings. With Bundy averaging just a shade over five innings per start this season we should see plenty of the Angels below-average bullpen in this one as well. Los Angeles' 'pen has posted a collective 4.53 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with nine saves and seven blown in night games this season.

Sean Manaea will counter for Oakland. After a tough start to the season he's rounded into form, posting a 2.96 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in eight starts here at home with the A's winning seven of those. Going back over his last four starts, Manaea has allowed just two earned runs in 26 2/3 innings of work. With Manaea averaging north of six innings per start here at home this season, the A's bullpen isn't a major concern, but they have been solid, particularly at home where they've recorded a somewhat lofty 4.31 ERA but a respectable 1.29 WHIP with 10 converted saves compared to only two blown. While the Angels have hit left-handed starting pitching well this season, they haven't done much against Manaea, managing just two earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in two games against him this season.

The A's bats have finally woken up lately, scoring 31 runs in their last six games, with Matt Chapman in particular getting on a bit of a heater at the dish over the last few games. Take Oakland (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Monday.

The 76ers have absolutely shot the lights out in this series, shooting 52.9% or better from the field in all three games. They've now shot better than 51% in four consecutive games, one game shy of their longest such streak of the season. They posted that five-game streak back in the first two weeks of March but that stretch included games against the likes of the Pacers, Bulls, Wizards and Spurs.

The Hawks have actually been a solid defensive team, particularly at home where they allow 108.8 points per game on 45.1% shooting on the season. Despite the 'over' result in Game 3, the 'under' remains a profitable 21-17-1 in their 39 home games this season.

Note that the 'under' checks in 8-1 with the Hawks playing at home off two or more consecutive ATS losses this season, with those games averaging just 212.5 total points.

The 76ers have now allowed 100 or more points in six straight games, their longest such streak since April 14th to 24th. In their next game following that previous six-game streak they gave up only 90 points in a win over Oklahoma City. That game totaled just 211 points, staying comfortably 'under' the total. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Czech Republic +0.5 goals (-190) over Scotland at 9 am et on Monday.

NOTE: I'll play the alternate goal line at a steeper price here giving us insurance should this match end in a draw. Alternatively, your book may offer the Czechs to win/draw at the same price.

I'm higher on the Czech's than most entering this tournament and while this obviously a difficult match against Scotland in Glasgow, I expect to see them keep proceedings level at the very least and earn a much-needed point as they battle it out in a tricky group.

With England and Croatia rounding out the group, advancement could be difficult for these two squads so avoiding a goose-egg in the opening match is obviously critical. The Czechs bring rather inconsistent form to the table after suffering a 4-0 defeat at the hands of mighty Italy before rallying their spirits for a 3-1 win over Albania in two warm-up friendly matches. Keep in mind, they didn't start their 'A' squad against the Italians and fell behind quickly 2-0 as a result. Once the likes of Patrik Schick and Tomas Soucek entered the match after halftime the game was already well in hand for Italy.

Scotland earned a recent 2-2 draw with the Netherlands, which was certainly impressive on paper. However, the Dutch were missing some key parts at the back-end, most notably goalkeeper Jasper Cillessen, whose absence was certainly felt in yesterday's narrow 3-2 victory over Ukraine. In World Cup Qualifying back in March, the Scots' needed a late goal to pull even with Austria in a 2-2 draw before settle for another disappointing draw, 1-1 against Israel, and then proceeding to lay waste to Faroe Islands 4-0.

Scotland actually reached this tournament - a rare Euro appearance at that - on the shoulders of qualifying wins over the likes of Kazakhstan, Cyprus and San Marino before clinching their ticket with victories on penalties against Israel and Serbia. To say that it is fortunate to be here would be an understatement.

I think the fact that Scotland got past Czech Republic in both Nations League matches last fall looms large when it comes to the prices being set for this match. While Scotland does have home field advantage, I believe the case could be made for the Czechs to be favored. Instead we're able to grab them plus a half-goal at a reasonable price. Take Czech Republic +0.5 goals (9*).

My selection is on the 'over' 2 goals between Scotland and the Czech Republic at 9 am et on Monday.

These two teams are somewhat familiar with one another having met twice last fall in Nations League action with Scotland taking both matches by 2-1 and 1-0 scores. With both teams determined to take three points away from this game, knowing that England and Croatia are the favorites to take the top two spots in the group, I think we're in for an entertaining affair on Monday morning.

Note that the Czechs have conceded at least a goal in five straight matches entering this away contest in Glasgow. They're missing one of their better defenders in the middle of the pitch in Lukas Provod. We did see a hint of their offensive explosiveness last time out in a friendly match against Albania, however, as striker Patrik Schick paced the attack in a 3-1 victory. We can expect the sharp-shooter Schick to feature once again on Monday.

Scotland has just two clean sheets to its credit in eight matches going back to last November, with those coming against the likes of Faroe Islands and Luxembourg. The Scots' should bring an attacking mindset here and have the talent to break through against the Czechs with Che Adams in particular having scored in three of his last four matches overall, including the team's lone marker in last week's friendly against Luxembourg.

We've cashed with the 'over' in matches involving both of these squads during our current run on the pitch, including in Scotland's 2-2 draw with the Netherlands and Czech Republic's 3-1 victory over Albania. While I don't think we'll see the type of scoring heroics we did in yesterday's easy cash with the 'over' between the Netherlands and Ukraine, I don't believe a 2-1 result is outside the realm of possibility here given the importance of the three points hanging in the balance. Take the over 2 goals (10*).