Winning Picks from Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy

Tuesday MLB Free play. My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Mariners took the opener of this series last night, ending the A's five-game winning streak. Now Oakland falls into a tough situation as it has gone 2-10 when coming off a loss against a division opponent as a home favorite this season, outscored by 2.0 runs on average in that spot. The A's are just 12-20 when playing at home off a loss this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.5 runs. Meanwhile, the Mariners are in a strong positive momentum spot here having gone 9-2 after giving up two runs or less in consecutive games this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.0 run in that situation. Seattle starter Marco Gonzales hasn't been on the hill for a team loss by more than a single run on the road since back in early June in Detroit. Since then, the Mariners are a perfect 6-0 in his last six road outings when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. A's starter Paul Blackburn hasn't been good lately. Over his last three starts he owns an ugly 7.94 ERA and 2.12 WHIP. He's topped out at three strikeouts in his last four outings. The Mariners have seen Blackburn twice since last September and have tagged him for nine earned runs in just eight innings, winning both of those games by a combined margin of 17-6. Take Seattle +1.5 runs.

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My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We saw a high-scoring game to open this series last night as the Braves finally snapped out of their offensive funk. I expect some carry-over from that offensive explosion here as we have a subpar starting pitching matchup between spot starter Jesse Chavez and Luke Weaver. Note that the 'over' is 19-10 when the Braves check in having allowed four runs or less in three straight games this season with that spot producing an average total of 9.9 runs. The 'over' is also 39-22 with Atlanta coming off two or more straight wins over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 10.4 runs. On the flip side, the 'over' is an incredible 15-3 with the D'Backs seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent by six runs or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 11.5 runs. Of course, Arizona has been an 'over' machine in general this month, posting a 12-3 o/u mark with an average total of 10.3 runs scored. Braves starter Jesse Chavez made just one previous spot start this season and gave up two earned runs in just 2 1/3 innings. As bad as Arizona has been in terms of wins and losses, it can score runs, having plated at least four runs in eight of its last 11 games. Luke Weaver hasn't really fooled anyone since returning from injury at the start of September. His three starts in that time have resulted in 11, 13 and 12 total runs. Behind Weaver is a D'Backs bullpen that has recorded a collective 4.81 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (8*).

MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Twins have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total but now head to Chicago to face a Cubs squad that has posted five consecutive 'over' results. I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair at Wrigley Field on Tuesday. Note that the 'over' has gone 10-2 when the Twins play on the road after scoring three runs or less in consecutive games this season with that situation producing an average total of 12.9 runs. The 'over' is also 12-4 with the Twins on the road after losing a tight game by two runs or less this season with that spot producing an average total of 10.7 runs. Finally, we've seen the 'over' cash at a 14-3 clip with Minnesota on the road revenging a loss in which it scored one run or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, good for an average total of 12.0 runs. As for the Cubs, it's been a case of addition by subtraction during the second half of the season as they've posted a 38-28 o/u record, averaging 4.5 runs per game with an average total of 10.7 runs. Neither of tonight's starters instill much confidence. Griffin Jax got off to a positive start to his rookie season with the Twins but has hit the wall since, allowing 26 earned runs over his last five outings, covering a span of 25 innings. He's allowed at least one home run in all but one of his 11 starts this season and checks in sporting a 6.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in six road starts. Alec Mills has solid overall numbers for the Cubs this season but averages just a shade over five innings per start and that's a concern as the Chicago bullpen has posted a collective 6.39 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over their last seven games. Take the over (10*).