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Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Friday.
With rain expected to move into the area late Friday evening, there's a chance this game doesn't go the full nine innings. That's just fine with us as I expect the Guardians to jump all over the Reds early on and hold the advantage for a full nine innings if need be.
Brady Singer takes the ball for Cincinnati. While he does own a 4-2 record through eight starts this season, the underlying numbers tell a different story. Singer checks in sporting a 4.25 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. Over his last three outings he has been tagged for 12 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings, striking out only seven while walking six along the way. Now he faces a Guardians lineup that has absolutely crushed him over the years (remember they faced each other regularly when Singer pitched for the division-rival Royals). Current Guardians hitters are an otherworldly 51-for-122 (.418) with a collective 1.077 OPS against the veteran right-hander. Of the 10 Cleveland hitters that have faced Singer, all 10 have collected at least a hit and he has posted a disappointing 19:12 strikeout-to-walk ratio against them.
It's a much different story for Guardians starter Tanner Bibee. While we're talking about a small sample size, he has limited current Reds hitters to just five hits (only one for extra bases) in 31 at-bats (.161) with a .406 OPS. Bibee has recorded a 13:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio against current Reds hitters.
Finally, we'll mention that the Guardians sit a respectable 12th in the majors in bullpen xFIP this season while the Reds sit in 25th. While Cleveland was idle yesterday, Cincinnati was involved in a blowout win over the White Sox. Take Cleveland (10*).
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and New York at 8 pm et on Friday.
We've seen consecutive high-scoring 'over' results in this series including the Celtics 127-102 home win to avoid elimination in Game 5 two nights ago. I expect a much different story to unfold in Game 6 on Friday, however, as the scene shifts back to Manhattan.
The Celtics certainly rose to the occasion on Wednesday, connecting on a blistering 44-of-84 field goal attempts in an eventual blowout victory. The pace certainly wasn't there for such a high-scoring result as the Knicks shot just 29-of-81 from the field. While New York figures to enforce the tempo back at home on Friday, it's worth noting that the Knicks have made good on 41 or fewer field goals in nine of their last 10 games and 37 or less in four of the first five games in this series.
On the flip side, Game 5 ended a streak of nine straight games in which New York had held the opposition to 40 or fewer made field goals. I'm willing to bet on the C's red hot shooting performance in game 5 on being an outlier that was supported by a predictable letdown from the Knicks with a 3-1 series lead.
Boston can't afford to let its guard down defensively the way it did in the most recent game played here at Madison Square Garden if it wants to extend this series back to Beantown for Game 7. Note that outside of that ugly defensive effort, the C's have been terrific at that end of the floor, limiting 12 of their last 13 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. Take the under (10*).
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Dallas at 7:30 pm ET on Friday.
All eyes will be on the much-anticipated debut of top overall pick Paige Bueckers, but the reality is that her presence doesn’t patch up Dallas’ long-standing defensive shortcomings. The Wings were one of the worst defensive teams in the WNBA last season, and there's little to suggest that a rookie—no matter how talented—will transform them overnight. Dallas gave up 112 points in their only preseason game against Las Vegas, and that came with A’ja Wilson playing just 21 minutes and shooting a modest 7-for-17 from the floor. That poor showing underlines the lack of defensive cohesion that continues to plague this team.
Meanwhile, Minnesota comes into this season motivated, after pushing the Liberty to the brink in last year’s WNBA Finals. The Lynx return with a strong core and a well-balanced attack that should immediately take advantage of Dallas’ defensive lapses. This is a veteran group that thrives on execution and should expose the Wings' inexperience and issues on the defensive end from the opening tip. While the media hype might be centered on Bueckers, the on-court reality heavily favors the Lynx.
Take Minnesota.