Winning Picks from Sports Handicapper Sean Murphy

My selection is on Utah plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday.

The Heat 'emptied the tank' in yesterday's 132-101 win in Washington, ending their two-game losing streak in the process. Off consecutive ATS victories, we'll fade Miami on Monday, however, as it returns home for an less-than-inspiring matchup against the lowly Jazz. Utah has lost back-to-back games but it was close in both, falling by two points in Atlanta and three points in Orlando. In fact, the Jazz have covered the spread in four straight games. They'll be looking to salvage the finale of their five-game road trip on Monday and also to avenge an ugly 147-116 loss suffered at home against Miami on January 24th. I'm not convinced the Heat should be laying so many points in this back-to-back situation, noting that they haven't won three straight games ATS since a four-game streak in late December-early January. Take Utah (8*).

SWAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Florida A&M minus the points over Prairie View A&M at 7 pm et on Monday.

I really like the way this one sets up for Florida A&M as it looks to end its four-game SU and ATS slide. While Prairie View A&M does own the slightly better overall record in this matchup this season, Florida A&M has faced the more difficult schedule. The Rattlers are coming off three consecutive poor shooting performances, making good on just 20, 23 and 18 field goals over that stretch. The good news is, they'll be taking a step down in class here to face a Prairie View defense that has yielded 27 or more successful field goal attempts in six straight games. While the Rattlers don't generally push the pace all that much, they may take advantage of the opportunity to get loose here, noting that the Panthers have allowed five of their last seven opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts with a low-water mark of 58 over that stretch. The Rattlers recent struggles have had little to do with their defensive play. They've held six of their last seven opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. Prairie View has connected on 24, 28 and 27 field goals over its last three games but that's thanks to hoisting up 65 or more field goal attempts in all three contests. Florida A&M figures to keep a lid on the Prairie View offense, noting that it has held an incredible 10 of its last 11 foes to 55 or fewer field goal attempts. Take Florida A&M (10*).

My selection is on Alcorn State minus the points over Mississippi Valley State at 8 pm et on Monday.

Alcorn State will welcome the opportunity to step down in class for a change on Monday as it heads on the road to take on one-win Mississippi Valley State. Note that the visiting Braves not only own the better overall record in this matchup this season but they've also faced the more difficult schedule. Here, they'll be looking to salvage the finale of a two-game road trip and snap their two-game slide. Of note, the Braves have connected on 28 or more field goals in three of their last four games. They'll face a Delta Devils squad that has played matador-like defense, yielding 29, 28, 22, 27, 24 and 28 made field goals over their last six contests. Opponents haven't really pushed the pace all that much on them but that's been more a show of mercy than anything else. Mississippi Valley State has connected on 28, 23 and 29 field goals over its last three games but it got off 63 or more field goal attempts in two of those contests. Alcorn State has done a good job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities, holding 10 straight foes to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. We have seen the opposition shoot the lights out on the Braves at times but I'm not convinced we'll see that from the Delta Devils here. Keep in mind, prior to its most recent three-game stretch, Mississippi Valley State had been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in nine of its previous 12 contests. Take Alcorn State (8*).

Monday CBB Free play. My selection is on Alabama State plus the points over Southern University at 9 pm et on Monday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with Alabama State on Monday. The Hornets check in off a double-digit loss at Grambling on Saturday as they made good on just 18-of-66 field goal attempts. They've been wildly inconsistent offensively but we do know they're capable of bouncing back here, keeping in mind they're just one game removed from knocking down 28-of-59 field goal attempts in a 13-point win over Florida A&M. I like the fact that Alabama State has held three straight and nine of its last 10 opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Southern has thrived by pushing the pace offensively but it might be in tough in that regard here, noting that Alabama State has allowed just one of its last six opponents to get off 60 field goal attempts. Southern did a nice job of holding Alabama A&M in check last time out but prior to that had yielded 27 or more successful field goal attempts in three straight contests. Finally, we'll note that while Southern does own the better overall record in this matchup this season, Alabama State has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Alabama State.