Ross Benjamin

Chiefs @ Packers 8:20 PM ET

Game# 471-472

Play On: Over 42.5

For starters, the weather in Green Bay shouldn’t be a factor with game time temperatures predicted to be about 34 degrees with light wins of 5 to 7 MPH and a very low probability of any precipitation.  The Packers offense has shown dramatic signs of improvement over their last 3 contests while averaging 23.7 points scored and 391.0 yards gained per game. During that same 3-game stretch, the Packers defense allowed a worrisome 165.0 yards per outing. The Chiefs will be able to run the ball effectively on Sunday night which sets up the best play action passer in the NFL Patrick Mahome for a huge day. Since the start of the 2021-2022 NFL season, Kansas City has played 6-1 to the over on the road when the total was between 42.0 to 49.0 and there was a combined average of 55.4 points scored per game. Additionally, the Chies went over the number in both games this season when the total was 43.0 or less. Give me this game to go over the total.

Browns @ Rams 4:25 PM ET

Game# 469-470

Play On: Over 40.5

The Browns have played 5-0-1 to the under at home this season but 5-0 to the over on the road. Those 5 road contests had a combined average of 54.8 points scored per game. Statistically the Browns are extremely good defensively. But those numbers are askew when comparing their home and away splits. The same can be said for their offense production on the road which has been far better than compared to that on the road. The Rams offense is coming off a confidence building performance during last Sunday’s 37-14 blowout win at Arizona. They massed 457 yards of total offense in that contest with a very balanced attach which sw them gain 228 rushing and 229 passing. Give me this game to go over the total.

Panthers @ Buccaneers 4:05 PM ET

Game# 461-462

Play On: Buccaneers -3.5

Carolina is an awful 1-10 and has been an underdog in all 11 games this season but still is a money-draining 1-8-2 ATS. Furthermore, they’re 0-7 SU and 0-5-2 ATS when facing fellow NFC teams. Carolina has scored 15 points or fewer and gained 275 yards or less during each of their previous 5 games. The Panthers have failed to force a turnover in each of their last 3 games. They have a -7-turnover margin for the season while Tampa Bay is +5 in that category. The Bucs are a more than respectable 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS this season when facing a team that currently has a win percentage of .500 or worse. Despite their 4-7 season record, Tampa Bay is just 1.0 game behind New Orleans and Atlanta for the NFC South Division lead. This will only be the 4th time the Bucs are a favorite this season and they covered 2 of the previous 3 in that role. Give me the Buccaneers minus points.

Dolphins @ Commanders 1:00 PM ET

Game# 463-464

Play On: Over 49.5

Even the casual NFL fan is aware of how explosive the Miami Dolphins can be. This appears to be a prime spot for them to shine against a porous Washington defense which has allowed 29 points sor more in 8 of their 11 games this season. The Commanders offense has averaged an impressive 407.8 yards gained per game over their previous 5 contests. The only reason they scored just an average of 21.2 points per contest during that stretch is they committed 11 turnovers. They’ll be facing a Dolphins defense that allowed 27.3 points per game in contests played on the road or at a neutral site. Give me this game to go over the total.

Colts @ Titans 1:00 PM ET

Game# 461-462

Play On: Colts -117 (ML)

Tennessee is coming off last week’s 17-10 home win over a 1-10 Carolina Panthers team. The bad news is that the Titans are 0-3 SU&ATS this season following a win. The Titans offense has struggled mightily this season while scoring 17 points or fewer in each of the last 4, 6 of the previous 7, and 8 of 11 games this season. The Colts are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 games and allowed just 13.0 points and 304.3 yards per contest. Indianapolis has also gone 4-1 SU&ATS this season in neutral site and away games. It’s also worth noting, the Colts Gardner Minshew is 5-0 SU&ATS in his career team starts as a road favorite with his teams winning by an average of 20.6 points per game. Give me the Colts as a money line favorite.

Falcons @ Jets 1:00 PM ET

Game# 455-456

Play On: Atlanta -130 (ML)

The Jets have gone an abysmal 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 and were outscored by a decisive margin of 18.0 points per game. New York has been anemic offensively over their previous 5 games while scoring 13 points or fewer on each occasion. Conversely, Atlanta has scored 23 points or more in each of their last 4 games and amassed 396 yards or more of total offense in 4 of the previous 7 contests.

Atlanta is coming off a 24-15 division win as a 1.0-point home underdog versus New Orleans. NFL non-conference money line home favorites coming off a SU underdog win versus a division opponent resulted in those money line favorites going 31-3 (91.2%). Those money line favorites outscored those 34 opponents by an average of 12.1 points per game. Give me the Falcons as a money line favorite.

Lions @ Saints 1:00 PM ET

Game# 453-454

Play On: Saints +4.0

The Lions have committed 7 turnovers in their last 2 games. During those contests they needed a miracle comeback to beat Chicago 31-26 and lost to Green Bay 29-22 as an 8.5-point favorite with both played at home. The Saints are coming off a disappointing 24-15 road loss as a 1.0-point favorite at Atlanta that dropped their season record to 5-6. However, New Orleans is in a tie for 1st place with Atlanta in a weak NFC South Division and has plenty of incentive heading into this match against an 8-3 Lions tea.

Any NFL home underdog of 5.5 or less with a losing record that’s coming off an away favorite SU loss and they’re playing after Game 7, versus an opponent coming off a SU&ATS loss, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1998. The home underdogs won those 8 contests by an average of 8.4 points per game.