Ross Benjamin

Dodgers (Grove) @ Phillies (Suarez) 7:05 PM ET

Game# 901-902

Play On: Over 9.5 (5*)

The Dodgers pitcher Michael Grove has struggled in his 5 starts this season with a 8.14 ERA.1.52 WHIP and averaged just 4.2 innings pitched per start. He doesn’t figure to get much help from a Dodgers bullpen that has a staff 6.17 ERA/1.63 WHIP, and they allowed 7 home runs in 23 1/3 innings pitched. Los Angeles is coming off yesterday’s 6-0 win at Cincinnati that easily went under the total. However, the Dodgers have played 6-0 to the over in their last 6 immediately after a game that went under and there was a combined average of 13.2 runs scored per occurrence. Los Angeles has played 14-5-1 to the over in their last 20 overall and 11-3 to the over during their previous 14 away games. The Dodgers have hit a noteworthy 14 home runs in their last 7 games.

Ranger Suarez has a lofty 5.47 ERA/1.54 WHIP in 5 starts this season. The Phillies have hit 11 homers over their previous 7 games and averaged 5.1 runs scored per outing. Philadelphia has seen all 3 head-to-head matchups versus the Dodgers go over the total with a combined average of 15.7 runs scored per game. They Phillies allowed a combined 36 runs, 44 hits, and 7 homers in those 3 matchups versus Los Angeles.

Give me this game to go over the total.

Nuggets @ Heat 8:30 PM ET

Game# 519-520

Play On: Heat +3.5 (10*)

Miami is coming off Wednesday’s 109-94 home loss in Game 3. As expected, there’s been a ton of bets and money placed on Denver in today’s Game 4 based on what the public just witnessed 2 days ago. We have seen this act before where bettors kick Miami right in the teeth when they’re down and presumably on life support. On most occasions the Heat have responded in a big way to those situations and especially so when playing at home. Specifically speaking, Miami is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 at home immediately following a loss in their previous game. That includes 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU if they were a home underdog.

NBA Playoffs home underdogs of 4.0 or less that are playing in Round 2 or beyond like Miami that are coming off a home SU&ATS loss, and they’re down 2-1 in a series, resulted in those home underdogs of 4.0 or less going 5-0 SU&ATS since the 2003 postseason. Those underdogs not only covered on each occasion, and but won all 5 contests SU and by an average of 8.4 points per game.

Give me the Miami Heat plus points.