Michael Alexander

Rating: 2 Units

The bottom line is that the Celtics attempt threes more frequently than the rest of the league. A Cavaliers team that is 29th in three-point defense can only pray that Boston has an off night. Considering all of the other things that the Celtics do well offensively, hence the NBA's best offensive rating, it won't work in Cleveland's favor. When Boston is defending, they won't allow many free throw attempts or offensive rebounds. All of the pressure is on the Cavs' efficient three-point shooting to beat one of the best three-point defenses. It won't work enough, and the Celtics will consistently counter with scores of their own. Take Boston to win again and cover the tight spread.

Rating: 2 Units

The Clippers edged out the Nuggets in a dramatic finish more than a month ago. LA held Denver to 40.2% shooting from the field, and Norman Powell led the way for the Clippers with 37 points. Nikola Jokic dropped 41 points on LA, and he will torture the Clippers once more. I expect the Nuggets to get revenge, especially if Powell remains on the shelf. Only the Utah Jazz turn the ball over more than LA, and the Clippers commit a turnover on 14.9% of their possessions. The Clippers are arguably a better defensive team than the Nuggets, but Denver takes good care of the ball and has the best big man in the league on its roster.

Rating: 2 Units

Wofford has lost six of its last seven games against non-conference opponents. While North Alabama has won three of its last four day games.

Rating: 2 Units

The Anaheim Ducks continue a homestand spanning four games. Anaheim has not been able to find a groove this season but is only four points out of a playoff spot. This is a young roster capable of breaking out. They are playing just under .500 hockey this season. The group posted a dominating 5-2 road win against the Kraken on Wednesday and dealt a 2-1 home defeat by the Kings on Friday.   

Rating: 2 Units

Baltimore is the No. 1 team in the NFL in terms of both red zone touchdown percentage and offensive explosive play rate. We realize that the Black Birds are 8-1 ATS at home versus .700 or greater versus non-division foes, and QB Lamar Jackson is an eye-popping 23-1 outright against NFC opponents. However, the Eagles counter at 14-2 outright in their last sixteen games against AFC opposition and 3-0 ATS as dogs at AFC sites. We like dogs that can rush the ball; nobody does it better than the Eagles. 

Rating: 2 Units

The Saints go 2-0 SUATS to start the season by a winning margin of 91-19. Then they lost seven games in a row, going 1-6 ATS, only to follow that mess up with a recent 2-0 SUATS win skein. On the flip side, the Rams start the season 1-4 SUATS, only to come out of the Bye going 4-1 SUATS before falling to the Eagles last week. The Rams are 2-5 ATS away in Domes and 2-5 ATS against foes coming off a Bye, while the host in this series is 10-0 ATS.

AFC Game of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

The Steelers are 5-0 this season against teams that are currently above .500, but just 3-3 against teams that are under .500. Adding salt to the wound, over the past 30 years, NFL teams were 107-1 when holding their opponent to one or fewer first downs and forcing at least three turnovers while also totaling at least 350 yards of offense. The Steelers did all those things on Thursday night and still lost, which means that the NFL teams are now 107-2 in that situation. With the 4-7 Bengals one loss from having the final nail pounded into its coffin by the 8-3 Steelers, we need to consider that Pittsburgh is 0-4 ATS against foes coming off a Bye week while Cincinnati is 3-0 ATS when coming off a Bye week

Inter-Conference Play of the Day

Rating: 4 Units

Since entering the NFL in 2020, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has 19,627 passing yards and can surpass Jameis Winston (19,737 passing yards) for the second-most passing yards by a player in his first five seasons in NFL history. Only Pro Football Hall of Famer Peyton Manning (20,618 passing yards) has more. Falcons QB Kirk Cousins checks in at 11-4 ATS in his NFL career as a dog when his team is coming off back-to-back losses, including 9-1 ATS in the last ten games. Not only is Atlanta 5-1 ATS when coming off a Bye week, but the Chargers are 1-10 ATS versus foes coming off a Bye week.

Rating: 2 Units