Matt Fargo

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Dodgers are on the brink of elimination, again. With a 9-2 win over the Dodgers on Wednesday, Atlanta has a 3-1 lead in the NLCS, the same situation it was in a year ago against Los Angeles and eventually lost the series. The difference this time around is that the Braves will have the final two games at home should Los Angeles force a Game Six as opposed to playing on a neutral field last year. Despite the Wednesday loss, the Dodgers are 61-25 at home and have won seven of their last 10 home playoff games. Corey Knebel will get his third start of the postseason. With no bulk pitcher available, it will be a traditional bullpen game for the Dodgers. This is not ideal for an elimination game but the Dodgers had the second best bullpen during the regular season with a 3.16 ERA along with the second best bullpen in the postseason with a 2.74 ERA. Max Fried has had a great second half to the season so the Dodgers bats will once again have a challenge after he allowed two runs on eight hits over sin innings, definitely a good start but not one his best. The Dodgers are 13-3 in their last 16 games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Here, we play against road teams after a game where they hit four or more home runs, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This situation is 36-23 (61 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (920) Los Angeles Dodgers

After a season opening win over Chicago, Colorado has lost two straight games, allowing 11 goals in those two losses. The Avalanche led the NHL in scoring with 3.52 gpg and while they are not far off of that through three games, it is that defense that is a concern. They were third in the league with 2.36 goals per game allowed so that needs to shored up and it starts with goalie Darcy Kuemper. The Avalanche are 13-3 in their last 16 games following a loss of three or more goals. Florida expects to make some noise in the Eastern Conference this season and it is off to a great start as it is 3-0, scoring 14 goals in the process. The Panthers are averaging 4.67 gpg which is third in the NHL and this obviously is not sustainable. A road win over Tampa Bay last time out was a big one but they should see a strong defensive effort from Colorado knowing they have to improve to get back on track. Here, we play on road teams when the money line is -100 to -150 getting outscored by 0.2 or more gpg in third period, after allowing six goals or more. This situation is 47-17 (73.4 percent) since 1996. Play (69) Colorado Avalanche

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This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our Eastern Conference Game of the Month. Miami opens the season at home against the defensing NBA Champions and the Heat will be fired up for some revenge. The Bucks swept the Heat pretty easily in the playoffs last year in the first round and Miami has higher expectations this season. They averaged just 95.4 points per 100 possessions, the worst mark for any team in any series in the last five years. Miami has been one of the best defensive teams over the past decade and it should be better this season with the addition of Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker who will be facing his former team. Milwaukee opened the season with an easy win over Brooklyn which was without Kyrie Irving and now the Bucks hit the road to begin a three-game roadtrip. They are the favorites to win the Eastern Conference and will be facing a slightly different Miami team and one that will matchup well. Jrue Holiday exited the game on Tuesday early, so if he is unable to go, that would be a huge benefit for Miami as well. Obviously, Milwaukee will have the bulls-eye on its back when hitting the road and even more so in this case with the Heat looking for some payback. 10* (530) Miami Heat

This is a play on the NASHVILLE PREDATORS for our NHL Thursday Breakaway. Nashville opened the season by losing its first two games but came back on Monday with a 2-1 over Los Angeles. Both losses were by one goal so it has been some tough luck for the Predators as they have outshot all three opponents and by an average of 5.7 gpg. They are averaging just 2.3 gpg but the shots are there and they will be out to even up this homestand before hitting the road to face Winnipeg and Minnesota in back-to-back nights. The Rangers are just 2-16 on the power play and that 12.5 percent is the worst in the league among teams that have scored at least two power play goals. The offense has been awful beyond that as well as they are averaging just 2.0 gpg which is tied for third lowest in the NHL. Through four games, they are averaging only 26 shots per game, second fewest in the league and you cannot score if you do not shoot. The Rangers are 1-5 in their last six games when their opponent scores two goals or less in their previous game while Nashville is 14-3 against the money line in its last 17 games as a home favorite. Here, we play against road teams against the money line allowing 2.55 or fewer gpg on the season, after a win by one goal in their previous game. This situation is 81-52 (60.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (78) Nashville Predators

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Thursday Primetime Punisher. Denver has come back down to earth following a 3-0 start as the Broncos have lost their last three games, all as favorites. They have actually been favored in all six games this season so this marks their first game as underdogs. It has to be noted that those three wins to open the season came against the Giants, Jaguars and Jets which are a combined 3-14 and none of which have more than one victory. To their credit, the defense has been playing at a high level overall but that success is during those first three games where they allowed an average of 8.7 ppg but Denver has allowed an average of 28.0 ppg over its last three games. The Browns opened 3-1 both straight up and against the number, but they have dropped two straight against playoff bound teams. Injuries are mounting for Cleveland as the list keeps getting longer but come Thursday, they should be in better shape. Running back Nick Chubb has been ruled out so the running game is thin but Baker Mayfield said after the loss Sunday that he expects to play through his injury and be ready for Thursday. Instead. Case Keenum will get the start which is actually the better move. The defense has been a huge disappointment over the last two games but those offenses are both ranked in the top 11. Here, we play against teams in a game involving two teams forcing 1.25 or fewer tpg, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. This situation is 31-10 ATS (75.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (310) Cleveland Browns

This is a play on the CHARLOTTE 49ERS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Charlotte is off to a 4-2 start halfway through the season and after a winning season and a bowl game in 2019, the 49ers went just 2-4 last season, the third fewest games in the conference because of cancellations. Charlotte is 3-0 at home which includes a season opening win over Duke and while the Blue Devils are not a good team, they are still from a Power Five conference so it is still an impressive victory. This year, the 49ers have covered each of their two games as underdogs of 5.5 points or more. Florida Atlantic is 3-3 following a blowout loss against UAB and the home team has won all six games the Owls have played. The defense has been up and down and has allowed 27.7 ppg over their last three games. While Florida Atlantic brings in the most experienced team in C-USA, it has no Preseason First Team players and while it has three Second Team C-USA players, that is the same as Charlotte. Here, we play against road teams off a road loss against a conference rival going against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 41-11 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons. The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog. 10* (316) Charlotte 49ers