Matt Fargo

This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Dominator. Kansas City finally got its offense going last week after falling behind 14-0 as the Chiefs put up 31 points which surprisingly is tied for its second highest output of the season. The Chiefs are now in a tough spot coming off that divisional win with a game against Buffalo on deck so it is a letdown lookahead situation. This offense managed 360 total yards which is still below their season average so saying that are back is not justified. Travis Kelce had a typical big game and they got a huge effort from rookie Rashee Rice for his best game of the season but this receiving corps is still underachieving. The Chiefs are No. 12 in the luck rankings so despite a recent 7-3 ATS run, it is a bit deceiving. Green Bay is coming off a Thanksgiving win over Detroit which was its second straight underdog win to improve to 5-6 on the season. The Packers have lost some tough games this season as four of their defeats have come by a total of 11 points. Quarterback Jordan Love has been playing a lot better and is obviously more comfortable after some midseason struggles and he has put up a passer rating of 108.5 or better in three of his last four game. Defensively, they have improved as well and are now No. 7 in pressure rate, No. 5 in quarterback knockdown percentage and No. 7 in hurry rate. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 off two or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (472) Green Bay Packers

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Star Attraction. Philadelphia is coming off a pair of big wins as it got its revenge against the Chiefs and battled Buffalo to the end last week in an overtime win and it only gets tougher this week. The Eagles are 10-1 and a very fortunate 10-1 with seven of those 10 wins coming by just one possession including their last four games. In those recent games, Philadelphia was outgained in all four of those by 98, 114, 98 and 127 yards so it has not even been close so basically most everything has gone right. With an offense that has averaged only 320.5 ypg over this four-game run, they are catching the wrong team at the wrong time. The Eagles defense was on the field for over 40 minutes and 95 plays last week and now have a very physical test. San Francisco has won three straight games following a three-game losing streak where it was riddled with injuries. The 49ers are coming off a pretty easy win over Seattle where it was not given much of a challenge and now they have had the extra rest coming off a short week prior to that. Defensively, they are coming off their best three-game stretch of the season with only 30 points allowed on just 242.6 ypg and the 49ers have moved to No. 6 in defensive DVOA. The other side has been even better as San Francisco is No. 1 in offensive DVOA as it is now averaging 32.4 ppg taking out those three losses when numerous offensive pieces were missing. This game has been circled following the playoff loss from last season when Brock Purdy had to leave the game and the result was an embarrassing 31-7 loss. 10* (467) San Francisco 49ers

This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Washington is coming off a blowout loss on Thanksgiving against Dallas which was its third straight loss to fall to 4-8 and it is catching another big number this week. The Commanders parted ways with defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio as it has been a struggle and while it does not look to get any easier here, players tend to step up in these spots after a coach getting let go. They are ranked No. 31 in defensive DVOA which is obviously horrible but it could not be in a better contrarian spot after everyone saw them get lit up against the Cowboys. They have been adequate on offense with efficiency and Sam Howell is still slinging it around and facing a middle of the pack defense. Miami is coming off a Black Friday win over the Jets on the road and is laying a similar number here coming off a big divisional win. The Dolphins have won two straight games following a mediocre 3-3 run and while those losses were against elite teams, this being the second of a back-to-back road set, it sets up similar to the first two games of the season where it scored 36 in the season opener and followed that up with just 24 points against the Patriots in their second back-to-back game. Home underdogs of a touchdown or more are 8-4-1 ATS this season. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (464) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFC Game of the Month. This is a minimal public play with Detroit but it is not as popular as it normally would have been just a few weeks ago but the Lions are coming off a pair of ugly games and this is a big one to get right. Detroit was able to salvage a win against the Bears despite losing the turnover battle 4-1 but could not match that on Thanksgiving as it lost to Green Bay with another -3 turnover margin. The Lions won the yardage battle in both of those games including a 464-377 advantage last week and face another very average team and while it is on the road, it is on the turf. Detroit is No. 7 in net DVOA with both units ranking in the top 10. New Orleans lost at Atlanta last week but it still very much alive in the NFC South at 5-6 which is keeping this number down. The Saints relied on their defense early in the season but have regressed of late by allowing 25.2 ppg over their last five games. They are still a respectable No. 13 in defensive DVOA but have faced some poor offenses as in their 11 games, that have gone against an offense eight times that is bottom half of the league in DVOA and the best they have faced is ranked No. 9 and remain without cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Offensively, New Orleans is hurting with their top three receivers all in jeopardy of missing this game. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset loss as a home favorite going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (453) Detroit Lions