Matt Fargo

This is a play on the LIBERTY FLAMES for our CBB Signature Enforcer. Liberty rolled College of Charleston on Friday in the opener on the Field of 68 Tip Off on its home floor as the Flames are the host. We played against them but we will back them here as they have had the day off which is big here as they have had that extra day to prepare. Liberty is again expected to take Conference USA behind All Conference players Kaden Metheny and Zach Cleveland. This is a revenge game as well with Liberty losing in Boca Raton 51 weeks ago in overtime. Florida Atlantic also rolled College of Charleston but that was yesterday so the Owls are in the back-to-back with limited time to prepare. They defeated a very bad Boston College team in their opener by only five points at home and coming into the season, they were picked No. 8 in the 13-team American. Here, we play against Florida Atlantic after playing two consecutive games as favorite as they are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games while we play on Liberty after scoring 80 points or more as they are 10-1 in their last 11 games. 10* (708) Liberty Flames

This is a play on the SACRAMENTO KINGS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Sacramento is off to a 3-5 start following a 31-point loss against Oklahoma City which was an awful spot as they were catching the Thunder off their first loss of the season. The Kings schedule has been brutal as they have played the No. 1 ranked slate in the league thus far and it does not get easier here but the line obviously takes that into consideration. This is a great roster that has underachieved to start the season as the Kings have four players averaging 16 or more ppg and that does not include Domantas Sabonis who could miss his third straight game which does hurt the frontcourt as this is a guard heavy team. Minnesota shook off a loss against the Knicks to defeat Utah by 40 points which is not saying much and that was its fourth win this season against four of the bottom six teams, the others being Indiana, Charlotte and Brooklyn. The Timberwolves are coming off a season-high in points and field goal percentage which puts them in the sell high spot. Here, we play against favorites of -165 to -500 with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off a win against a division rival, playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 18-10 (64.3 percent) since 2022. 10* (514) Sacramento Kings

This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our Sunday Free Play. This line opened at -3 and is now up to 5.5. Please explain. San Francisco is coming off a two-game roadtrip where it split and has played four of its last five games on the road and overall the 49ers have played six of their fist nine games on the road. The fact they are just a half-game behind Seattle and Los Angeles is pretty amazing considering the injury situation of this team. Following the Rams, San Francisco has Arizona, Carolina, Cleveland and Tennessee on deck so come the first week of December, this team should be in first place. The Rams are coming off a blowout win over the Saints to make it three straight wins to move to 6-2, the only losses coming against the Eagles and this San Francisco team. They are 3-1 on the road playing the No. 23 ranked schedule and one look at this series tells us where to go. The underdog has covered five straight and 12 of the last 14 meetings and we are catching more than a field goal at home in a divisional rivalry. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 61-26 ATS (70.1 percent) since 2016. Play (272) San Francisco 49ers

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This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. This seems like the easy spot to take Detroit as it is coming off a loss against Minnesota so everyone expects the Lions to rebound especially when knowing quarterback Jared Goff and Dan Campbell have won and covered 12 straight games coming off a loss. But that is when they are healthy and they are far from it now. Their offensive line is in shambles and that is not good for the statue that is Goff and the defense is far from healthy. This offense has been pedestrian of late as their Success Rate has been middle of the pack. Facing a Washington defense could help and obviously on offense, the loss of Jayden Daniels hurts but the drop off to Marcus Mariota should not warrant a five-point line swing so the line move is part of this play as is the fact no one wants this team as the Commanders are the first NFL team since the 2020 Jaguars to lose three straight games by at least 21 points. 94 percent of the money is on Detroit. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after failing to cover the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, in November games. This situation is 94-54 ATS (63.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (270) Washington Commanders

This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Contrarian Crusher. Arizona came through on Monday night for us and we are back the Cardinals again with this inflated number. Arizona snapped a five-game losing streak with that victory and it is now 3-5 with those losses all being close calls. The five losses have been by one possession and by an average of 2.6 ppg which makes them a live dog once again. Jacoby Brissett will be making the start again and he has brought some life into the offense as he has averaged 286.7 ypg with a 6:1 TD:INT ratio in his three starts. Seattle is being deemed as the best team in the NFL by some and yes they are good, but this is all about recency bias as the Seahawks have won three straight games including a blowout in Washington last week. they have covered three straight and six of their last seven games so the number has to be inflated by the markets and it is too much in this case in a divisional game along with their recent dominance against Arizona with eight straight wins. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 2016. 10* (267) Arizona Cardinals

This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Star Attraction. We have a future on New England to make the playoffs and it is looking good but no way was this expected as the Patriots are 7-2 which includes six straight wins. This includes a great win at Buffalo following a home win against Carolina to start it but since then, it has been New Orleans, Tennessee, Cleveland and Atlanta thanks to a missed extra point. In the second half of the season, underdogs that are on a six-game or more winning streak are 27-42-1 ATS and now they catch a real team for the first time in a while. Tampa Bay is coming off its bye week which came at a good time as this team needed to heal although they are not fully back yet. Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving missed practice again with the latter possibly coming back but the best news is that right tackle Luke Goedeke, who missed six games, was back at practice and looks to finally return. On the other side, the Buccaneers are relatively healthy and No. 5 in Defensive EPA. Here, we play against teams off a home win by three points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 30-6 ATS (83.3 percent) since 2021. 10* (264) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Jacksonville is coming off an overtime win over the Raiders last week thanks to a missed Las Vegas two-point conversion to improve to 5-3 and it currently holds the final playoff spot in the AFC. This team has a solid EPA in offensive rushing but that all the Jaguars do good as they are No. 21 in Offensive EPA overall and No. 17 in Defensive EPA. The wide receiver room is totally banged up and this is not the game for that as they will possibly be without Brian Thomas, Jr. Over the last 10 years, teams off an overtime game when their opponent did not have won at just a 42 percent clip. Houston lost a tough one against Denver to fall to 3-5 and this almost feels like a must win game as the Texans have already lost to the Jaguars once setting up revenge and they have yet to face the Colts. The bad news is that C.J. Stroud is out but the good news is that Houston brings in the No. 1 ranked Defensive EPA. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season where the line is +3 to -3 with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 revenging a loss by seven points or less. This situation is 29-4 ATS (87.9 percent) since 2016. 10* (260) Houston Texans

This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Cleveland and New York are both coming off their bye week and obviously the Jets were active at the trade deadline, trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams so their defense has been severely downgraded and they will hear it from the Jets faithful. They were not good anyway, coming into this week No. 30 in Defensive EPA and now they are more depleted. Offensively, they do have a slight edge on Cleveland but they are not facing the Bengals like they did in picking up their first win prior to the bye and all momentum is gone. Cleveland got rolled at New England before its bye so the time off came at a good time and while the Browns season might be cooked, their defense is still playing at a high level. Cleveland is No. 4 in Defensive EPA and Justin Fields could be in trouble like he was against Denver in London. The offense needs a boost and this is one of the best opportunities for that in both the passing and running games. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, in November games. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (253) Cleveland Browns