Matt Fargo

This is a play on the SACRAMENTO KINGS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. We played against Sacramento on Friday as it lost in Portland to make it five losses in its last six games. The Kings are now 9-11 which is a big disappointment early on and the Kings have struggled despite playing the No. 25 ranked schedule in the league and have been average on both ends of the floor. They are 1-7 ATS over their last eight games which adds line value and they are playing with revenge after suffering a 20-point loss in San Antonio three weeks ago. The Spurs had their four-game winning streak snapped with an 18-point loss on Wednesday so they do have the rest advantage but the other factors outweigh that. San Antonio has been a pleasant surprise as it is a game over .500 but most of the success has been at home where it is 8-4 compared to 2-5 on the road with both wins coming at 4-15 Utah. The Kings are getting healthier with DeMar DeRozan listed as probable after missing the last two games. Here, we play on home favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 revenging a loss of 10 points or more, playing a winning team. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) with a scoring differential of +10.9 ppg. 10* (548) Sacramento Kings

This is a play on the DENVER PIONEERS for our Sunday Free Play. Denver is coming off three straight losses, all by double digits which puts the Pioneers in a solid situation today. They are 3-5 and continue to improve under head coach Jeff Wulbrun who came in following a two-win season and has put up 11, 15 and 17 wins and they were a win away over South Dakota St. to make the NCAA Tournament. Defense led the way and while they have not been great on that side so far this season, they have a good matchup while getting a significant amount of points. Portland has also lost three straight games and it 2-5 with only one Division I win, a two-point victory against Long Beach St. It is expected to be a long season for the Pilots as this is a very young roster that consists of seven true or redshirt freshmen. This is a good matchup for Denver because Portland cannot shoot or score and it is ranked No. 308 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. This is the first time the Pilots are favored this season and it is too big to say the least. Here, we play on teams after three straight losses by 10 points or more going up against an opponent after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. This situation is 45-16 ATS (73.8 percent) since 2020 with a scoring differential of +1.0 ppg. Play (695) Denver Pioneers

NFL 41-31-3 Run. Over the last 2+ NFL Regular Seasons, Matt is 166-132-4 (+$24,540). Full Sunday Card with FIVE Winners highlighted by a Divisional Game of the Year with those plays on a 9-4-1 run. CBB/NBA action for Sunday as well.

This is a play on the BUFFALO BULLS for our CBB Signature Enforcer. Penn St. opened the season 6-0 but suffered its first loss against Clemson in the final of the Sunshine slam in Daytona Beach and the Nittany Lions are back home where they are 4-0 and laying another big number. They are 3-2 ATS when laying double digits and while they are in a good rebound spot, they are also in a look ahead situation as they open Big 10 Conference action on Thursday against Purdue so this is a going through the motions game which they should have no problem winning easily but not against this big number. Buffalo is 4-3 which is saying a lot considering the Bulls won four games all of last season and did not defeat a Division I team until January. The roster lost a lot from that team which is not a bad thing as head coach George Halcovage inherited a mess and now in his second year, the players are mostly his. Buffalo is 4-2 against the number and has covered all three games when getting double digits, winning one outright and losing to Notre Dame and Vermont by nine and 11 points respectively. 10* (681) Buffalo Bulls

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Star Attraction. This is the best game of Week 13 with two of the hottest teams squaring off and this line is right where it should be but we could see it come down a tick with 87 percent of the money on Philadelphia. The Eagles have won seven straight games and have taken a 2.5-game lead over Washington in the NFC East but it has come against a pretty cake schedule. Wins over the Commanders and Rams the last two week have been the best wins as they have defeated no other playoff team during this run and now they face a real test and on the road. Overall, Philadelphia has faced a schedule ranked No. 29 in the league. Barkley leads the No. 1 ranked team in Rushing EPA but things will not be easy here against the No. 2 ranked Defensive Rushing EPA. Baltimore is coming off a win over the Chargers following its loss against Pittsburgh and over its recent 8-2 stretch, the only two losses have been within the division. The Ravens are 3-0 against the NFC to move Lamar Jackson to a remarkable 23-1 against the NFC in his career and while some of that can be considered random, it is still impressive. Baltimore brings in the No. 1 overall Offensive EPA as they are No. 1 in passing behind Jackson and No. 2 behind Derrick Henry. He does not have a good matchup but the balance is key here and the home field is a huge advantage. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems after covering the spread in four out of their last five games, in December games. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +8.9 ppg. 10* (480) Baltimore Ravens

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. New Orleans fired head coach Dennis Allen in early November following a loss to Carolina and the Saints responded with a pair of wins over Atlanta and Cleveland. It was a great jump start following a seven-game losing streak but it has been stalled with their bye week and that can be a momentum killer. The Saints are still alive in the NFC South as they are just two games behind Atlanta after having split the season series while still very much alive in the NFC Wild Card. We still think this is a team going nowhere as the offense was carried by Taysom Hill against the Browns while the defense was still bad, allowing 443 yards. Take away games against Carolina where they allowed 193 and 246 yards and New Orleans has allowed 428.9 ypg in their other nine games which would be by far the worst in the league. The Rams are coming off a loss against Philadelphia at home last Sunday night in a game they trailed by just six points late in the third quarter but the Eagles ran off 17 consecutive points culminating by a 72-yard touchdown run from Saquon Barkley. Los Angeles had won four of five games prior to that to get back in the division and at 5-6, it is just one game back of Seattle and Arizona and is 2-1 in the division. These are the games they cannot give away though and they only have one bad loss which was at Chicago. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 in conference games, off a blowout upset win by 21 or more points as an underdog. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +5.3 ppg. 10* (477) Los Angeles Rams

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. No one wants any part of the Jets right now as they have lost two straight games following a win against Houston which snapped a five-game losing streak. They are coming off their bye week at the right time and while it has obviously been a lost season for New York, this is a team that will continue to fight following the firing of their GM. The offense has not come close to living up to expectations and that is all on Aaron Rodgers but they are still a respectable No. 17 in Offensive EPA while on the other side they are No. 18 in Defensive EPA, not horrible rankings for a team that is 3-8. New York does not turn the ball over but the defense only has eight takeaways and that has been the problem. The Jets have been unfortunate as they are No. 31 in the Luck Ratings. Seattle is coming off a pair of upset wins as it defeated San Francisco on the road and Arizona at home last week which put a temporary halt on a 1-5 run. The Seahawks are back over .500 and tied with the Cardinals for first place in the NFC West with the 49ers and Rams just a game back so it is wide open which makes this game a big one. This is a big reason why 88 percent of the money is on the Seahawks yet the line has moved the other way. Seattle is average on both sides like New York and its Net EPA ranking of No. 17 is just one spot ahead of the Jets. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 38-12 ATS (76 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +6.3 ppg. 10* (474) New York Jets

This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. Houston is now 7-5 on the season following a loss to Tennessee at home and while many will be backing the Texans expecting a bounce back against a bad team, we are not sure how good Houston is. The defense has been stout but the offensive has regressed to No. 21 in Net EPA. The Texans have dropped four of their last six games and this is not a big surprise as they went from last place two seasons ago to first place last season and are now doing the typical regression that teams go through when going from last to first. They are 3-3 on the road and have outscored opponents by only 1.5 ppg and are now significant road favorites in a divisional game against a team looking to wreck their season. Jacksonville is coming off its bye week following a 52-6 thrashing at Detroit, the second straight game it has been held to single digits. The Jaguars will get quarterback Trevor Lawrence back this week after missing those last two games so at least the offense will have a pulse once again. He had that one bad game against the Eagles but prior to that, he had five straight games with a passer rating of 89 or higher including three of 104.7, 121.5 and 119.5. The defense has been the concern but playing at home against a regressing offense is not a bad thing. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring nine points or less in two straight games. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983 with a scoring differential of +1.1 ppg. 10* (470) Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our Divisional Game of the Year. Pittsburgh is coming off that snow globe loss in Cleveland to fall to 8-3 and still have a half-game lead in the AFC North with four more divisional games still to play. The Steelers defense has led the way as they are No. 5 in Defensive EPA and they look to get the offense going once again after two poor games although one of those was in awful conditions. They put up 28, 26, 37 and 32 points in their previous four games. This is the game it needs as after this and Cleveland again next week, they face Philadelphia, Baltimore and Kansas City in a span of 11 days. The Steelers are 4-0 straight up as underdogs. Cincinnati has been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL as they have been unable to overcome an 0-3 start and now sit at 4-7 and while their season is on the line, this is again not a good matchup. The Bengals are just No. 29 in defensive EPA and that has been the issue and basically negated the season Joe Burrow is having as he is narrowly behind Lamar Jackson in QBR. The defense did have a pair of good games in mid-October but those were against Cleveland who had Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Deshaun Watson at quarterback and the Giants. Cincinnati is 0-5 against teams ranked in the Sagarin top ten. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 30-10 ATS (75 percent) since 2015 with a scoring differential of +5.6 ppg. 10* (465) Pittsburgh Steelers