Jimmy Boyd

5* NO BRAINER on Bulls +11½

The schedule is doing the heavy lifting for Chicago here. The Bulls come in on 3 days of rest while Philadelphia is on 2 days and playing its third game in four nights. Eleven and a half points is a lot of trust to put in a team working through that kind of density this early in the season.

Then there's the Joel Embiid question. He sat Saturday's win over Charlotte with right foot plantar fascia management and is listed as questionable for Monday. If he sits again, Adem Bona likely draws the start, and Philadelphia's rim protection and rebounding look very different. Even if Embiid plays, a big man managing a foot issue on the back end of a 3-in-4 is not the version that buries teams by double digits.

Chicago has real problems, no argument. The Bulls are 1-5 over their last six with a 121.6 defensive rating, and Nic Claxton remains out as he works back from a hamstring issue. But this number isn't asking Chicago to win. It's asking them to stay within 11.

The Bulls have the scoring to do that. Caleb Wilson is putting up 21.2 a game and Norman Powell 20.7, and Chicago's 106.75 pace means plenty of possessions to keep the margin honest. The market is pricing Philadelphia's 6-1 start at full strength, not a tired roster with a questionable center laying nearly two touchdowns' worth of points.

Fresh legs, a fat number, and a favorite running on fumes. Give me the Bulls +11.5 (-115) against the 76ers.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Marshall -1½

Marshall opens the 2026-27 college basketball season hosting Buffalo in the MAC-Sun Belt Challenge, setting up a strong situational spot for the home team.

Head coach Cornelius Jackson built a reliable home-court advantage at the Cam Henderson Center last season, guiding the Thundering Herd to a 13-4 record in Huntington.

Marshall brings back proven backcourt leadership led by Preseason All-Sun Belt First Team senior guard Noah Otshudi, who averaged 14.5 points and 3.4 assists per game last season.

Buffalo faces a major chemistry project under fourth-year head coach George Halcovage III.

The Bulls return just 42 of their 2,497 total points from last season while integrating 11 newcomers into the roster.

With backcourt continuity and home-court comfort, the Thundering Herd hold a clear physical and tactical edge over a re-tooled lineup playing its first real game together.

Give me Marshall -1.5 (-110) in this one.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Air Force/Wright State: under 163½

Opening night of the college basketball season brings an inflated total to the Nutter Center as Wright State hosts Air Force in Dayton. Setting a total of 163.5 for a season opener expects peak offensive efficiency that rarely shows up in game one.

Air Force begins a new era under first-year head coach Joe Crispin. Opening the season on the road with fresh offensive concepts means timing and spacing will take time to calibrate.

Wright State head coach Clint Sargent returns five players from last season while integrating nine new roster additions. Blending that many new pieces in an opener creates natural offensive lulls and extended possession setup.

When rosters undergo heavy offseason turnover, half-court execution is always the first area that struggles. Defensive effort and hustle carry the early minutes while shot selection and shooting rhythm catch up over the coming weeks.

Early-season non-conference games are historically defined by rotation testing and perimeter rust. Neither program has played a real game since last spring, which directly works against a high-scoring environment.

Asking these two teams to cross a 164-point threshold on opening night is mispricing the realistic early-season output.

Give me the Under 163.5 (-110) in the Air Force at Wright State game.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Massachusetts +3½

Roster continuity gives Massachusetts a clear early-season edge over Troy in Monday night's season opener at Trojan Arena.

Head coach Frank Martin enters his fifth season at UMass with seven returning players from last year's 17-16 squad. Having that established core familiar with Martin's physical, high-intensity system is a major advantage in the first week of November, when execution and defensive communication lag across the country.

Troy enters the debut of head coach Adam Howard with an almost completely overhauled roster. The Trojans return only three players who saw action last year, led by Kerrington Kiel, while trying to blend 12 new arrivals. That group includes seven transfer portal additions, such as Donovan Oday and Jacoi Hutchinson, along with five freshmen. While there is portal talent on paper, building cohesive unit chemistry under a new coaching staff takes weeks of live game reps.

Early in the college basketball season, established rotation continuity and veteran coaching carry far more weight than a newly assembled group trying to figure things out on the fly. UMass knows its identity and returns experienced depth across its lineup. The Minutemen have the edge to dictate tempo on the road and keep this game down to the wire.

Give me Massachusetts +3.5 (-115) in this opener at Troy.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Denver/Wisconsin: over 159½

Opening night totals in non-conference play tend to underestimate pace when a fast-tempo mid-major travels to a high-major host looking to showcase offensive depth. Denver brings an uptempo style to Madison, while Wisconsin showed plenty of perimeter firepower in its final exhibition tune-up, knocking down 18 three-pointers in an 82-65 win over Oklahoma State.

Early-season games regularly feature loose defensive communication and extra possessions, which favors a high-scoring game. Wisconsin possesses interior scoring power and expanded perimeter depth, while Denver remains prone to allowing fast scoring bursts against high-major size and athleticism. With both teams pushing the ball in transition and deep rotations playing uptempo basketball, the scoring rate will stay high throughout.

Give me the Over 159.5 (-105) in the Denver at Wisconsin game.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Western Illinois/Valparaiso: under 142½

Opening night totals in college basketball frequently overvalue offensive flow, making 142.5 a bloated number for this matchup.

Game-one execution always takes time to develop, and both programs arrive at the Athletics-Recreation Center with early-season adjustments to make. Roster turnover and fresh rotation combinations usually lead to clunky half-court possessions and tentative rhythm early in November.

Western Illinois managed only 64.9 points per game last season while connecting on just 40.3% of its field goals overall. The Leathernecks struggled to generate consistent scoring away from home, and asking them to find immediate range on the road is a reach.

Valparaiso enters Year 4 under head coach Roger Powell Jr. after holding opponents to 71.5 points per contest in 2025-26. Powell preaches structural defensive discipline, and his roster is far more prepared to control tempo than execute smooth transition offense on night one.

When you combine opening-night shooting legs with two squads still organizing their sets, empty possessions will pile up quickly.

Bet the Under 142.5 (-105) in this one.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Bowling Green +4½

Opening night of the SBC-MAC Challenge gives us a clear continuity edge with Bowling Green on the road. Georgia State is entering a complete reset under first-year head coach Jon Cremins, returning only one player from last season's 10-22 squad alongside 14 newcomers.

Bowling Green brings far more stability into this opener. Head coach Todd Simon enters his fourth season with the Falcons coming off an 18-14 campaign in 2025-26, with key contributors like junior guard Josiah Shackelford returning after averaging 11.3 points per game last year. Expecting a completely overhauled Georgia State roster to mesh immediately and lay multiple possessions on night one is a high bar.

Take the points with the program that has established chemistry and coaching stability on opening night. The play is Bowling Green +4.5 (-110) against Georgia State.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Georgia Southern +130

Georgia Southern at +130 at home is a price built on a preseason computer number, and that is exactly the kind of spot I want to be on the dog.

Neither team has played a game this season. The market is leaning on KenPom's preseason projection, which has Georgia Southern at 289th in adjusted efficiency margin with a 326th-ranked defense. Those are forecasts, not results. The ratings are priced off a 0-0 team.

What we actually saw on a floor last season tells a different story. Georgia Southern closed 2025-26 winning 7 of its last 10 while averaging 84.1 points a game, including a five-game run where they beat Marshall, blasted Coastal Carolina 96-72, and knocked off South Alabama and Arkansas State on the road. That team finished playing its best basketball.

Ball State closed the same stretch 2-8, averaging just 63.9 points while giving up 72.8. They dropped their last two to Akron and Kent State and got run out of Toledo 73-55. Last year's roster, sure, but it is the only on-court sample either side has, and it points one direction.

The style fit matters too. KenPom projects Georgia Southern at a 73.3 tempo, one of the faster paces around. A Ball State offense that could not crack 64 a game last season now opens on the road against a team that wants to sprint. Season openers in up-tempo environments favor the home team that dictates the terms.

Getting plus money with the home court in that spot is value. Give me Georgia Southern on the moneyline at +130 over Ball State.

5* NO BRAINER on BYU -162

BYU opens the 2026-27 season with one of the cleaner profiles in the country, and the preseason numbers tell you why the market made them a solid favorite.

The Cougars sit 33rd in KenPom's preseason adjusted efficiency margin at +20.65, driven by an offense that ranks 10th nationally at 120.56 points per 100 possessions. The defense checks in a respectable 75th.

That offense is the engine here. BYU can score with anybody, and in a season opener where legs are fresh and rotations are loose, the team with the more proven firepower usually dictates the terms.

Ohio State has a real problem on top of that. Guard John Mobley Jr., a 15.7 points per game scorer last season, got hurt in an exhibition against Butler and his status is uncertain for this opener. Losing or limiting your top perimeter weapon in game 1, on the road, against a top-10 offense is a brutal spot.

This one tips at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City rather than Provo, so BYU trades its campus crowd for a bigger building. It is still a Utah floor, and the environment leans Cougar.

With zero current-season games on either side, I trust the team with the stronger baseline and fewer roster questions. BYU brings both to this matchup, and -162 is a fair ask for that gap in a spot where the opponent's backcourt may be compromised.

The play is BYU on the moneyline at -162 over Ohio State.

1* Free Pick on Bears/Seahawks: under 46½

Seattle's elite home defense sets up a heavy low-scoring environment on Monday night when the Seahawks host the Bears at Lumen Field. Seattle enters Week 8 featuring a top-two unit in overall defensive efficiency, excelling at shutting down explosive plays and forcing opponents into long third downs.

Chicago brings a 5-2 record into Seattle built on a formula of tough defensive play and controlled ground work. Traveling into one of the league's toughest road venues forces the Bears into a conservative game plan focused on ball security and keeping their own defense fresh.

That style fits right into how Seattle wants to play football. The Seahawks rely on winning trench battles and managing time of possession, which keeps overall snap counts lower than average.

Prime-time games between two physical teams with playoff aspirations naturally turn into field-position grinds. Neither coaching staff has an incentive to turn this contest into a high-risk shootout.

When game flow dictates slow clock execution and heavy defensive line dominance, this number offers real value on the total.

Take the Under 46.5 (-110) in the Bears at Seahawks game.

Riding a 3-game winning streak, I've locked in three high-value NFL premium picks for today's slate. If you're looking to build your bankroll with my top-rated selections, head over to my handicapper page to check out today's full card.

5* NO BRAINER on Bears +3

Chicago comes into Monday night with a clear situational edge and a 5-2 record against the spread. The Bears step onto the field with extended rest after playing on Thursday night in Week 7, while Seattle is playing its third consecutive primetime contest after an intense Sunday night game. That extra preparation and recovery time gives Chicago a physical advantage in a tough road environment at Lumen Field.

The Bears offense has operated with high efficiency when Caleb Williams is under center. Williams has accounted for seven total touchdowns against zero interceptions in his healthy starts, with Chicago scoring 30 or more points in each of those contests. The Bears have won four of their last five games overall, demonstrating the offensive balance and execution required to control tempo on the road.

Getting a full field goal with an offensively potent team on extra rest provides solid value. The play is the Bears +3 (+100) in the Chicago at Seattle matchup.