Jimmy Boyd

3* NHL Money Line DESTROYER on Flyers +

I like this spot for Philadelphia, especially at this price, as we are basically doubling our money if they can pull through. The Flyers will roll into this one with some momentum, as they won 6-2 yesterday at Buffalo as a pick'em. It was their 4th straight game in which they have scored 3 or more, including a 4-2 win at Pitt as a +160 dog. 

Winnipeg just lost at home to St Louis as a -225 favorite and were shutout 1-0. Jets are just 1-6 in their last 7 after allowing 1 or fewer goals. Flyers also have had a lot of success at Winnipeg, as they are 20-9-1 in their last 30 trips. Take Philadelphia! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Texas +

This is the ideal spot to jump on the Longhorns. Since upsetting North Carolina to improve to 5-0, Texas has lost 3 straight, including back-to-back home losses to VCU and Radford as double-digit favorites. If that doesn't humble the Longhorns nothing will. 

I expect a extremely motivated and locked in Texas team to take the floor here at home against the Boilermakers. Purdue is a one-man show. Carsen Edwards averages 23.9 ppg. The only other player in double-figures is Ryan Cline at 14 ppg. I think that's a tough way to win against good teams, especially on the road and Purude has lost both of their true road games, as well as a neutral site game to Va Tech. 

Longhorns are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 as a home underdog with a very profitable 15-5 ATS mark as a home dog of 3 points or less. Take Texas! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on Tennessee +

The public is coming in on the #1 ranked Bulldogs at close to a 80% clip and I'm putting my trust in the books that they have set this line to where they are confident the Vols will cash. I'm on board, as I like Tennessee to win this game outright. 

The Vols are no pushover. They are 6-1 and their only loss is a mere 6-point defeat to Kansas on a neutral field. They only lost by 6 to the Jayhawks, despite shooting just 41% from the field and Kansas was a red-hot 50%. Gonzaga has a bunch of big wins on their resume, including that upset of Duke, but they are due for a loss and they were lucky to get by Washington 81-79 at home as a 16-point favorite in their last game. 

Vols are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games when the previous two were against non-conference opponents. They are also 210-8-2 ATS in their last 30 off a SU win by more than 20 points and 8-1 ATS in their last 90 after holding their previous opponent to 25 or less 1st half points. Take Tennessee! 

4* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on 49ers +

The Broncos have made some noise the past 3 weeks, stringing together 3 straight wins over the Chargers, Steelers and Bengals. However, they also just lose their top wide out in Emmanuel Sanders and top corner in Chris Harris Jr to season-ending injuries. I just think given those two injuries and just how mediocre this team is to start with, they got no business laying more than a field goal on the road. 

The 49ers are just 2-10 and come in having lost 3 in a row, but there is reason to be optimistic. After a couple of rough outings following his magical first start on MNF, Nick Mullens completed 30 of 48 attempts for 414 yards and 2 scores against the 49ers last week.

It's a performance no one is really taking about because they managed just 16 points, but I think it's a great sign going into this game. He should be able to pick apart that Broncos secondary without Harris. Note that while they snuck out wins, Rivers threw for 384 yards against this Denver defense and Roethlisberger threw for 452. 

As for the Broncos, there's plenty of talk about Denver putting up over 200 yards rushing in their 24-10 win at Cincinnati, but that result is reason to be concerned. Broncos are just 5-12-1 ATS last 18 after allowing 18 or fewer points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after rushing for more than 150 yards. Look for the 49ers to at worst keep this close and likely win the game outright. Take San Francisco! 

3* Rams/Bears SNF Vegas INSIDER on Bears +

LA is going to be a massive public play as a short 3-point favorite, but I'm not taking the bait from the books. I'll go ahead and take the 3-points as insurance, but I like the Bears to win this game outright. 

I just think Chicago has the talent defensively to make things extremely difficult on the Rams offense. They got playmakers all over the field and it's going to be tough sledding for Todd Gurley and the running game, as the Bears only give up 66 ypg and 3.1 yards/carry at home. 

It's not just the defense that makes Chicago a strong play, their offense has really gotten better under Matt Nagy and they will have Mitch Trubisky back under center after he missed the last two games. I think Nagy has had a very similar effect on his young quarterback to that of Rams head coach Sean McVay and how he transformed Goff a year ago. 

It's going to be electric at Soldier Field for a prime time night game and while the conditions could be a lot worse, I think the cold is not something a lot of these Rams players will be excited about playing in. Chicago has covered 15 of their last 21 home games and are 6-0-1 ATS last 7 home games vs a team with a winning road record. Take Chicago! 

5* NFL AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Ravens +

This is just too many points for the Chiefs to be laying against a really good Baltimore team that is playing with a lot of momentum right now under rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. Ravens have won 3 straight since Jackson replaced Joe Flacco and while he's still got a ways to go as a pocket passer, he's been electric with his feet and the offense has scored 24 or more in all 3 of his starts. A mark they had eclipse only 3 times in their previous 9 games. 

With Jackson as the signal caller, Baltimore has rushed for at least 200 yards in all 3 of his starts and they are averaging almost 400 ypg during this stretch. All that running has allowed the Ravens to dominate the time of possession, which is huge against a team like KC, as the best defense for Mahomes and that attack is to not let them have the ball. 

With that said, I think this Ravens defense can at least slow down the Chiefs high-powered attack and keep them from putting a big number on the board. I like Spencer Ware, but this is not the same offense without Kareem Hunt in the backfield. They also won't have wide out Sammy Watkins. Not as many big weapons as their previously was. Baltimore can load up the defense on Hill and Kelce. 

The Ravens have also been a great bet when facing a bad defensive team like Kansas City, especially later on in the year. They are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs teams who are allowing 375 or more total yards/game in the 2nd half of the season and have won these games outright by just over a touchdown. Take Baltimore! 

1* Free NFL Pick on Tampa Bay Bucs +9

The public perception here is that last week's loss to the Cowboys was just a hiccup in the Saints season and there's no doubt they bounce back with an easy win over the Bucs, securing revenge from that upset loss at home to Tampa Bay in Week 1. 

It's one thing to go on the road and beat a division opponent, but it's asking a lot for a team to win by double-digits against a division rival. We know the Bucs have the offense that can keep pace with New Orleans if this turns into a shootout and I think the defense is going to surprise some people with how well it plays in this game. 

I know how bad Tampa Bay's defense was early on, but in their last 4 games the Bucs have held 3 of their 4 opponents under 20 points. The important thing is the improvement came from a change in schemes, so there's reason to think it's not a fluke. Since Tampa fired Mike Smith and promoted linebackers coach Mark Duffner to defensive coordinator, they have 24 sacks (2nd in the NFL during that time), are getting off the field 33.3% of the time on 3rd down (T-3rd) and are allowing the 10th fewest passing yards/game at 274.4. 

There's no question the pressure Dallas was able to put on Drew Brees really disrupted the Saints offense and given how well Tampa has been getting to the quarterback, the Saints offense might be stalled for another week. Either way, I love the Bucs to keep this one closer than the number posted here. Take Tampa Bay! 

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