Jimmy Boyd

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Heat +

Philadelphia is getting way too much respect in the first game back from the All-Star break, especially given the 76ers will be playing without All-Star big man Joel Embiid, who is out at least a week with a sore knee. Not only will Philadelphia being playing short-handed, but it wouldn't be a huge shock to see this team come out flat in the first game back. 

As for the Heat, they are currently tied for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East. This is a game they should be extremely motivated to play, especially given they will be getting back their star point guard in Goran Dragic. It's also worth noting Miami is a rare team that's actually been better on the road than they have at home. Heat are 15-14 on the road and just 11-16 at home. No surprise they are 18-11 ATS in those 29 road games. 

Going back even further, we see that the Heat are 32-19 ATS in their last 51 as a road underdog. Take Miami! 

3* NBA Money Line MASSACRE on Suns -

I just really like this spot for Phoenix coming out of the All-Star break against another bad team in the Cavs. I just see the Suns being extremely motivated here to get a win after losing 15 straight going into the break. 

Cleveland is a mere 5-13 ATS in their 18 games against a team from the Western Conference this season and a miserable 14-37 ATS in their last 51 home games vs a team with a losing road record. On the flip side of this, the Suns are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 on the road against a team with a losing home record. Take Phoenix! 

5* NCAAB Small Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison +

This is way too many points for the Dukes to be catching on the road against the Huskies. Northeastern is simply overvalued right now due to the fact that they come in having gone 9-2 over their last 11 games. They started out this run by going 7-1 ATS, but the books have adjusted big time and they come in having failed to cover 3 straight, including a mere 12-point win as a 17-point home favorite over Elon. 

These two teams played once already at James Madison and the Dukes held their own in a 10-point loss. James Madison comes in off back-to-back wins and are 3-1 ATS over their last 4 games. They have shot 51% or better in all 3 of those covers and Northeastern has allowed Charleston to shoot 48% and UNC-Wilmington to hit 49% in their last 2 games. 

Dukes have also covered 20 of their last 27 on the road against teams like the Huskies who are good 3-point shooting teams (average 8 or more made 3-pointers/game). The road team is also a dominant 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings in the series. Take James Madison! 

1* Free NCAAB Pick on BYU Cougars -4

I really like the value we are getting here with BYU laying such a short number at home against the Dons. I think a big reason for the value with the Cougars is the fact that BYU lost 82-63 at San Francisco back in January. 

What will get overlooked with that blowout win is the Dons shot a ridiculous 63.6% from the field for the game. Easily their best shooting performance of the season. That simply is not something that will be replicated, especially on the road. In fact, San Francisco's offensive efficiency takes a big hit on the road and it's a big reason why the Dons have gone 0-6 ATS in conference road games this season. 

Not only can we expect some regression from San Francisco, we should see a more efficient BYU offense, which only shot 44% in the blowout loss to the Dons. Cougars are averaging 80.1 ppg on the season and shooting 47% from the field both on the year and at home. They are 12-2 SU on their home court and a win should result in a cover here. Take BYU!

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