Jimmy Boyd

3* BEST BET on Heat PK -110

Analysis will be posted shortly

1* NBA - Free Pick on Pacers/Nuggets OVER 212½ 

Really like the value here with the OVER 212.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup that has the Nuggets hosting the Pacers. I believe we are getting a great price on the total due to the fact that Denver will be down 3 of their better players in Milsap, Harris and Murray. 

Thing is they didn't have either of those 3 in their last game at Golden State and they still managed to put up 113 points in regulation (did so only scoring 19 points in the 1st quarter). Denver is a deep team and still have two dynamic scorers in Jokic and Barton, plus Michael Porter Jr has really emerged of late. 

While I'm not all that concerned with the offense producing at home, I do think Denver's defense is in for a tough task here against a Pacers team that is finally starting to get healthy. Nuggets gave up 20 3-pointers to the Warriors in their last game and have allowed 100 or more points in 17 of their last 18 overall. 

OVER is also 8-2 in the Pacers last 10 games vs a team with a winning record, 5-1 in their last 6 on the road and 4-0 in their last 4 as a dog. OVER is also 10-2 in the Nuggets last 12 vs a team with a winning record and 20-8-1 in their last 29 after allowing 125 or more in their last game. Take the OVER! 

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3* TENNIS - Australian Open ANNIHILATOR on Christian Garin -125

I'm taking Christian Garin to defeat Stefano Travaglia in 1st round action of the 2020 Australian Open. Garin has yet to win in 2020 at 0-4, but is still the No. 36 ranked player and favored here for a reason. Travaglia is ranked No. 75 and will be outclassed in this matchup. Take Garin! 

5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Rutgers -5½ -110

Love the value here with the Scarlet Knights laying what I feel is a short number at home given just how dominant they have been at home, as well as Big Ten teams in general. Rutgers is a perfect 12-0 at home this season, which includes a 3-0 mark in conference play, having beat Wisconsin by 7, Penn State by 11 and Indiana by 9. They also have a 20-point home win over a really good Seton Hall team. 

Big 10 teams as a whole are now 41-7 (85.4%) SU on the season, which is by far the best home winning percentage of any conference. Minnesota definitely fits the mold. The Gophers are 10-2 at home this season compared to 1-5 on the road. Minnesota is 4-0  at home in Big Ten play with wins over Ohio State, Northwestern, Michigan and Penn State. They are 0-3 on the road with a 20-point loss at Iowa, 5-point loss at Purdue and a 16-point loss at Michigan State. 

Rutgers defense should be the key factor here. Scarlet Knights are No. 1 in Big 10 play in both defensive efficiency and effective field goal defense. Gophers offense is averaging 57.3 ppg in regulation in Big Ten road games compared to 77.8 ppg at home in conference action. Take Rutgers! 

4* TENNIS - Australian Open 1st Rd CASH COW on Barbora Strycova -150

I'm taking Barbora Strycova to defeat Sorana Cirstea in 1st round action of the 2020 Australian Open. No reason to overthink this one. Strycova is the No. 33 ranked player in the world, while Cirstea comes in at No. 74. Strycova also owns the head-to-head at 1-0. Take Strucova! 

5* NFL - Packers/49ers NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on 49ers -7 -109

I love the value here with the 49ers at home in the NFC Championship Game. As much respect as I have for Aaron Rodgers, San Francisco is simply better on both sides of the ball and I just don't see Green Bay being able to keep this close on the road. 

These two teams played in the regular-season at San Francisco and the 49ers led 23-0 at the half and would go on to win 37-8 with a 339 to 188 edge in total yards. SF not only limited Aaron Jones to just 38 yards on 13 attempts (2.9 yards/carry), they held Rodgers to mere 104 passing yards and sacked him 5 times. 

When healthy this 49ers defense has been the best in the league and with the returns of Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford in the Divisional Round, they are back to near full strength. When these two have been on the field there's just not a lot teams can do. I'm sure Green Bay will make some adjustments, but I don't think there's anything they can do to make up 25-points. I think it would take a near perfect game just for them to keep this within single digits and that's unlikely to happen. Take San Francisco!