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PREMIUM PICK STREAKS
All Sports Sides (+23326) 4741-4285 L9026 53%
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Free picks
Game Details
Sep 20 '26, 4:05 PM in 1d
NFL |
Raiders vs Chargers
Play on:
Raiders +7 -120 at betus
Game Analysis
1* Free Pick on Raiders +7
The Chargers opened as double-digit home favorites against Arizona last week and lost 26-14.
Now the market is asking them to win by more than a touchdown against a better opponent.
That's a price I'll take.
Both teams have played 1 game this season, so this is about the matchup and the number, not streaks.
And the Week 1 tape favors Vegas.
The Raiders posted 5 sacks against Miami, tied for the NFL lead, with Kwity Paye getting 2 and Maxx Crosby adding 1.5.
Justin Herbert was sacked 3 times by Arizona and threw a pick.
That pass rush against that protection is the core of this play.
Herbert's weapons are thinning out too.
Ladd McConkey is questionable with a rib injury, and KeAndre Lambert-Smith landed on injured reserve.
If McConkey sits or plays limited, this offense runs through Quentin Johnston, who caught 2 of 6 targets last week.
On the other side, Ashton Jeanty went 23 for 102 on the ground and added 6 catches for 45 yards and 2 touchdowns.
He controls tempo and keeps this game short.
The fair knock on Vegas is Kirk Cousins.
Two interceptions and 160 passing yards in Week 1 is real, and he'll give one away here too.
But I don't need Cousins to win the game.
I need Jeanty and that front seven to keep it inside a touchdown, and the Raiders held Miami to 13 points and 259 total yards doing exactly that.
Getting the full 7 covers the most common margin in football.
That's line value.
I like the Raiders
Pick Released on Sep 16 at 07:56 am
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
| Match Up |
Pick |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Analysis |
| Portland Fire vs Golden State Valkyries |
UNDER 160½ -105 |
Premium |
66-82 |
Win
|
100 |
Show
|
4* VEGAS INSIDER on Portland Fire/Golden State Valkyries: under 160½
This total is being propped up by a Portland pace profile that no longer exists.
The Fire are missing Carla Leite (15.9 ppg), Bridget Carleton (14.3 ppg), Megan DiLeo (13.2 ppg) and Sarah Ashlee Barker (10.7 ppg).
That's 4 of their top 5 scorers off the floor.
Teja Oblak is out too.
This isn't a rotation tweak.
It's most of the scoring infrastructure gone at once.
They're also on the second night of a back-to-back with 1 day of rest.
Golden State has had 19 days off.
The over case leans on Portland's 95.88 pace and 111.5 defensive rating over the last 10, the idea being a run-and-gun team with a bad defense inflates any total.
Fair point, but those numbers were built with Leite, Carleton, DiLeo and Barker playing.
A skeleton roster on tired legs doesn't push tempo.
And the home team usually sets the terms: Golden State plays at an 89.88 pace with a 93.9 defensive rating over its last 10.
Grinders drag games to their speed, not the other way around.
Golden State isn't whole either.
Gabby Williams (14.3 ppg) and Janelle Salaun (12.9 ppg) are both out, and Cecilia Zandalasini is questionable coming back from the World Cup.
Nineteen days off tends to mean rusty shooting early, not a track meet.
Both offenses are stripped down.
One team is exhausted, the other is rusty, and the healthier side wants the game in the mud anyway.
The math points one direction.
I like the Under |
| Phillies vs Mets |
Phillies +110 |
Premium |
3-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
Show
|
4* VEGAS INSIDER on Phillies +110
The market is giving us plus money on a team 16 games better in the standings, and the reason it's doing that doesn't hold up.
Philadelphia is 85-68.
The Mets are 69-84.
That gap is a full season of evidence, not a hot week.
Yet the Phillies are +110 on the road.
The price is built on the pitching matchup, and I get it.
Phillies starter Jose Urquidy carries a 5.28 ERA and was claimed off waivers yesterday to make a spot start.
That's a real concern, and it's the strongest case against this play.
But it's already baked into the number.
Nobody is pricing Urquidy like an ace.
The question is whether the other side of the matchup deserves the respect it's getting.
It doesn't.
Mets starter Zac Thornton shows a 3.44 ERA, but Statcast has his xERA at 4.61.
His .329 xwOBA sits above his .313 wOBA, and his .448 xSLG runs ahead of his .418 SLG across 293 plate appearances.
That's more than a full run of regression hiding under the surface numbers.
Hitters are squaring him up more than the box scores show.
Now look at who steps in against him: Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Luis Arraez at the top of the Phillies' order.
That's exactly the group you want attacking a lefty whose expected numbers say he's been living on borrowed time.
Urquidy doesn't need to be great.
He needs to keep it close while the better team and the better lineup do the work.
At +110, that's value.
I like the Phillies |
| Brewers vs Orioles |
Orioles +140 |
Top Premium |
6-5 |
Loss |
-100 |
Show
|
5* NO BRAINER on Orioles +140
The market is pricing this on records, not on the guy taking the ball for Milwaukee.
Brewers starter Dustin May sits at 7-9 with a 4.49 ERA, and the underlying numbers back it up: 4.24 xERA.317 xwOBA against.385 xSLG allowed.
This isn't bad luck.
It's a hittable arm.
The bigger problem is length.
May has failed to complete 5 innings in 4 of his last 5 starts.
That stretch includes 7 earned runs in 2 innings against Seattle and 4 earned in 4.1 against Texas.
One clean outing against the Reds last week doesn't erase a month of short, expensive starts.
Baltimore's 2 through 4 of Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson, and Coby Mayo is exactly the kind of middle order that punishes a .385 xSLG profile, and Camden Yards doesn't do that number any favors.
The opposition case is real.
Baltimore is 75-78 with 13 names on the injured list, and the pen is thin on high-leverage arms against a 95-58 Milwaukee club.
I'm not arguing the Orioles are the better team.
I'm arguing +140 already charges for all of it, and then some.
If May exits in the 4th or 5th again, Milwaukee's bullpen carries the same late-inning burden everyone worries about on Baltimore's side.
You make money when you buy, not when you sell.
A home dog at +140 against a starter who can't finish five is a buy.
I like the Orioles |
| Miami-FL vs Wake Forest |
Wake Forest +21 -109 |
Free |
33-20 |
Win
|
100 |
Show
|
1* Free Pick on Wake Forest +21
This number is built on box scores against Florida A&M and Stanford, not on what Miami looks like against a real ACC opponent on the road.
Miami has been dominant, no argument there.
They outscored their first two opponents 122-13, winning 45-6 at Stanford and 77-7 over Florida A&M.
That's the strongest case against this pick, and it's a real one.
But Stanford and Florida A&M tell you almost nothing about laying 21 in a conference opener.
Blowout margins against that level of competition get overvalued by the market every September.
That's exactly how you end up with a road favorite priced at three touchdowns.
Meanwhile Miami's secondary is a mess.
The Hurricanes are expected to be without cornerbacks Xavier Lucas, OJ Frederique Jr., and Ja'Boree Antoine.
Three corners out against a Wake Forest offense that has put up 38 points in both of its wins this season, 38-16 over Akron and 38-36 in double overtime at Purdue.
Wake Forest doesn't need to win this game.
They need to score enough to keep it inside 21, and a gutted cornerback room is the clearest path to that.
SP+ projects Wake Forest 62nd overall with the defense at 47th.
Those are projection numbers this early, but a top-50 projected defense at home in a conference opener is not a 21-point underdog profile.
The Purdue game showed the defense can leak points.
It also showed this team fights for 60 minutes plus.
Covering a number this big is about not folding, and Wake Forest hasn't folded yet.
I like Wake Forest |
| Houston vs Texas Tech |
Houston +9½ -115 |
Top Premium |
26-28 |
Win
|
100 |
Show
|
5* NO BRAINER on Houston +9½
Both teams sit 2-0 through two games this season.
Houston is putting up 55 points a game and allowing 13.
Texas Tech is at 34 and 17.
The common opponent tells the cleaner story.
Houston handled Oregon State 33-20 in its opener.
Texas Tech was in a fourth-quarter fight with that same team a week later before pulling away 35-24.
The case for Tech starts with SP+: #15 overall at 19.1 against Houston at #31 with an 11.6.
I'm not dismissing that gap.
But two games into a season, those ratings lean heavily on last year's tape.
They're projections, not results.
Even taking the ratings at face value, the math doesn't get you past this number.
A 7.5-point rating gap plus home field lands right around 9.5.
That means zero cushion on the Tech side, and any projection error works in Houston's favor.
Houston isn't a rebuild either.
This offense grades #24 in SP+ at 33.1, and last season the Cougars closed strong, winning at Baylor 31-24 in late November and beating LSU 38-35 in the bowl.
Yes, Tech allowed just 10.71 points a game over its final seven last season.
That was last season's unit.
Asking this year's version to win by two scores against a team that just hung 33 on the same opponent Tech struggled with is a price I'm happy to fade.
Give me the points in Lubbock.
I like the Houston |
Jimmy Boyd is one of the best there is, period. He is monitored around the web, so his success is well-documented. And that success is also highly lucrative for his subscribers.
Jimmy prides himself on being one of the best basketball cappers in the world, and he has stats to match. He is a two-time world champion in basketball handicapping. His first win was in 2008-09, and he took home the gold and a bunch of profit again in 2013-14. In those two seasons combined, he earned over $6,200 just betting basketball alone.
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But when the ball hits the court, you know who to turn to. Why go with a contender when you can hear what a champion has to say?
