Jim Feist

I'm taking the Philadelphia Phillies to cover the -1.5 run line Tuesday against Washington, as there is a clear pitching advantage at play here.

Philadelphia will start Cristopher Sánchez (17-5, 2.79 ERA), while Washington turns to Jackson Kent (1-4, 6.59 ERA). Kent simply hasn't been able to limit runs lately, making him a poor matchup against a Phillies lineup that has both power and run-production in it.

Sanchez should give Philadelphia every opportunity to hold serve early, while the Phillies should have chances to jump on Kent and the Washington bullpen.

Jim’s Play: 955. Phillies -1.5

Good starting pitching can swing the bet on any given MLB run line, but that starting pitching is especially influential when discussing Tuesday’s Dodgers-Reds affair. Los Angeles will send Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the mound Tuesday sporting a 13-8 record with a sparkling 2.62 ERA. Cincinnati’s lone choice in Rhett Lowder is coming off a 6-10 season with a 5.81 ERA. That’s a massive mismatch against a Dodgers lineup that can score runs in bunches in a hurry. Throw in the fact that these two pitchers squared off just one week ago and there’s even more reason to like Los Angeles.

Yamamoto threw seven efficient innings last Tuesday, striking out 10 along the way. Lowder? He allowed seven runs in just 3⅓ innings against Los Angeles before getting pulled. The final score was Reds 1, Dodgers 14. Lowder will get another shot against a Dodgers lineup that tallied nine hits against him last time out. Los Angeles should have another nice opportunity to score early and often against Cincinnati’s struggling starter. The Dodgers also rolled Monday, winning 4-1 to improve to 91-59 on the year. Los Angeles has now beaten Cincinnati three consecutive times dating back to last Thursday’s victory to open this series. Cincinnati has lost six of seven overall. 

Look for Yamamoto and Co. to keep Cincinnati to three runs or fewer. The Dodgers shouldn’t have to explode for runs to cover as long as their starting pitching outpaces Cincinnati’s. They have the advantage in starting pitching depth and their recent head-to-head productions backs that up. Expect another blowout in favor of Los Angeles.

Jim’s Play: 953. Dodgers -1.5

My best total for Tuesday is Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros UNDER. One of the main reasons why is due to the starting pitching matchup as both teams will send a talented arm to the hill. First, the Royals have Michael Wacha who is 9-8 with a stellar 3.25 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Over his last two starts he has allowed three earned runs over 20 innings while pitching eight shutout innings against Cleveland and six innings without allowing a run against Arizona.

Hunter Brown will take the mound for Houston and he has put up some fantastic numbers in his own right. His 3.52 ERA with 100 strikeouts over 92 innings is solid, and while he struggled in his last outing against Philadelphia he had only allowed six earned runs over his previous five outings with quality starts against the Mets, White Sox and Athletics. He’ll look to bounce back against Kansas City and his ability to miss bats should hold up against an offensive team that has struggled to piece together big innings consistently.

Offense wise these two teams have also been sluggish recently as well. Kansas City only scored five total runs over its last three games heading into this series while Houston has scored three runs or less in 21 of its last 36 games. They’ve even failed to muster one and two runs in two of their last three games.

With Wacha on top of his game and Brown likely to bounce back against an underwhelming Royals offense, both pitchers have every opportunity to go deep enough into games where this game stays under their control. 

Jim’s Play: 975. Royals/Astros UNDER