Jim Feist

San Francisco can win Tuesday because it has the clear starting pitching advantage. The Giants are bringing Robbie Ray to the hill and the Reds will counter with Brady Singer. Ray boasts a 2-1 record and metrics of 2.08/0.98. Singer? He’s at 0-1 with an ERA of 7.71 and WHIP of 2.06. That alone is enough of a reason to trust San Francisco.  Ray limited the Phillies to 6 2/3 scoreless innings in his most recent outing.

San Francisco has sputtered at the plate at times this season, but Singer could have a tough time keeping them in check for long stretches. He’s allowed 21 hits and 10 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings and, per Field Level Media, Singer owns a 7.16 ERA in three career starts versus the Giants. A mediocre starter who cannot match up against a team that only needs to eat up a few innings from its own starter is often vulnerable.

Ray gives San Francisco the biggest reason to like their odds here. Ray tossed six-plus scoreless innings with seven strikeouts during his April 8 start against Philadelphia. That type of dominance can carry over when pitching at Great American Ball Park. If Ray holds Cincinnati down through the middle innings, Giants do not necessarily need much offense to win this one.

San Francisco is just 6-10 before the opener and their offense has not played great baseball so far this season, so there is some risk involved. The good news is their matchup leans in their favor. The Giants get the better starter, a pitcher who has been hammered throughout his brief stint in Cincinnati, and they face the Reds while their bats have looked like they could struggle might score runs. Taken altogether, San Francisco has a favorable profile to grab a road win Tuesday.

Jim's Play: 955. Giants 

At first glance, I think the Rays have a strong case to hit the board Tuesday as they seemingly have the pitching advantage while playing the cleaner game overall. Tampa Bay will roll with Shane McClanahan while Chicago will counter with Noah Schultz, who is making his MLB debut on Tuesday. McClanahan has not been overpowering on the surface as he is 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA, but he has allowed just 3 hits over 8 2/3 innings while striking out 9 hitters. Those are solid ratios that indicate his stuff has played even if the results haven’t always been there for him yet. Schultz is a highly ranked prospect, but making your debut against veterans is never easy, especially with all the things that can go wrong due to nerves, pitch count, and lack of command early in the game.

Speaking of confidence, Tampa Bay also has the team-form edge over Chicago. The Rays come into this game at 8-7 while the White Sox sit at 6-10 and Chicago is coming into this game by giving Tampa Bay home losing streak. Tampa Bay also just took care of business against the Yankees this weekend, winning the series in 3 including a 5-4 decision Sunday. While Chicago might not be New York, Tampa Bay still looked better than the Sox did heading into this matchup.

Chicago has some upside since Schultz has performed well in Triple-A, but I just don’t trust betting on a pitcher’s first MLB start especially against a Rays team that typically makes starters work. Tampa Bay will just need McClanahan to deliver a quality start and force the White Sox to go with their rookie on the mound for his first MLB outing. With a more proven starter, better record, and recent-play that favors Tampa Bay, I like the Rays as the more trustworthy side on Tuesday night.

Jim's Play: 965. Rays 

Miami can cover this play-in game against No 9 seeded Charlotte as the Heat have more postseason experience heading into this win-or-go-home scenario, and they’re coming off a strong finish to the regular season. Miami clinched the No. 10 spot with a victory on Sunday, defeating Atlanta 143-117 behind Bam Adebayo’s 25 points, Jaime Jaquez Jr.’s 26, and the return of Norman Powell, who added 25 points of his own. Find that kind of offensive flow and confidence heading into a play-in game and it definitely pays dividends in a game where efficiency and calm usually play such large roles.

Speaking of Charlotte, there’s also an argument to be made that the market is a little too bullish on the Hornets. While Charlotte did clinch the No. 9 seed and home court advantage with a 110-96 victory over New York on Sunday night, that was against a Knicks team that sat several key rotation players. The Knicks were protecting their playoff rotation, not exactly playing full strength and coming at Charlotte with high-intensity pressure. Both teams were really close in the regular-season win column too, with Charlotte finishing 44-38 and Miami right behind at 43-39.

Plus, Miami just has the roster construction to keep an elimination game competitive on the road. Adebayo allows the Heat to play with a steady interior presence on both sides of the court, and Powell getting healthy at the right time adds another bucket-getter to Miami’s arsenal. Tyler Herro and Davion Mitchell returned for Miami’s finale too, which means the Heat brings added creation and backcourt solidity into Tuesday’s game. When it comes down to one game, those veteran shooters and a strong defensive foundation should be enough to keep Miami within the number, even in the event of a Charlotte win.

Charlotte may even keep things close regardless, as the historical matchup numbers favor Miami covering here. Miami owns 10 of the last 12 against Charlotte, and that number had the Hornets as a 5.5-point home favorite. That implies Miami can keep the ticket alive by simply keeping it close, and combined with the play-in desperation factor, strong finish to the season, and complementary veteran core players, Miami has a good recipe for doing just that.

Jim's Play: 565. Heat