Jim Feist

Jim's Free Play: 508. Magic -10.5 

This number looks big, but Orlando’s home-court metrics justify it. Their defense is elite at the Kia Center, and Milwaukee’s road offense has been inconsistent, particularly in games where they’re forced into low-efficiency mid-range shots. Orlando’s length and defensive versatility create matchup problems across the board.

If you’re looking for a reason to back the New Orleans Pelicans to cover on Monday, February 9, 2026, the biggest starting point is the spot and the health. Sacramento Kings are coming in battered and in a bad rhythm, and they’re also playing on the second night of a back-to-back after losing at Cleveland on Sunday (and that loss made it 12 straight for Sacramento). On today’s official NBA injury report, Sacramento lists multiple rotation guys out (including Malik Monk and Keegan Murray), with Domantas Sabonis marked questionable, while New Orleans’ report is comparatively clean. That’s the kind of setup where the more stable roster usually plays with cleaner spacing, fewer forced minutes, and a more predictable rotation late.

Matchup-wise, New Orleans has a very clear way to score in this one: get downhill and live in the paint. Season matchup profiles have the Pelicans rated No. 1 in points in the paint, and Sacramento has been one of the softer teams defending inside (they also sit near the bottom in points allowed overall). That’s a great recipe for covering because paint offense travels and it’s less volatile than relying on a hot 3-point night. If Sabonis is limited (or sits), it also makes it harder for Sacramento to stabilize the half-court offense and control the glass, two things you’d normally want from a road underdog trying to hang around.

Finally, this is a solid “effort spot” for New Orleans at home at Smoothie King Center. Even if neither team is having the season they wanted, this is the kind of opponent (injured, slumping, tired) you can pressure from the opening tip, push the pace, attack the rim early, and force Sacramento into jumpers and late-clock possessions. And if the spread is in the typical short range you often see in games between two struggling teams, the combination of health + rest edge + paint scoring advantage is exactly what you want on the side you’re backing.

Jim's Play: 510. Pelicans 

Tonight’s game presents a very solid argument to back Wolves +6.5 against the Louisville Cardinals with tonight’s market hovering around Louisville -6.5.  Current form/guard play. Wolfpack is playing its best basketball of the season and comes into this game fresh off a six-game win streak during which NC State has taken care of the basketball at an elite rate. Quadir Copeland’s last three games have produced a whopping 36 assists to just 5 turnovers. This is precisely the kind of guard play that can keep an underdog UNDER the number on the road by avoiding crippling 8–0 runs that turn covers into non-covers.

his game projects to have very high scoring output and a heavy three-point bias, both of which favor the team catching points. Both teams rank among ACC leaders in threes made/attempted. Both teams also grade out poorly defending three point shots. Games with high “volume” from beyond the arc on both sides tend to create extra variance and variance is something you want to see when playing the points. NC State doesn’t have to “win” this game if they shoot around their season average from three, they just have to “trade punches” for 40 minutes.

Louisville’s Mikel Brown has been banged up lately with back issues. When your best guard is injured or not himself it doesn’t always manifest itself early in the game. Paint touches hard disappear late as teams without their first ball-handler elevate their aggression, leading to tougher mid-range jumpers and empty possessions against a team that is making a comeback.

Jim's Play: 877. NC State