Jim Feist

You can certainly make the case that UConn will win Friday and cover against Michigan State on March 27 because, well, this is being setup as a very close game and hence UConn’s advantages on paper are that much more valuable. 

As far as winning the outright game goes, let’s start with momentum. UConn’s path to the Sweet 16 included wins over Furman and then UCLA 73-57. Forward Alex Karaban scored a career-high 27 points against UCLA and added 10 points and 13 rebounds from Tarris Reed Jr. Reuters highlighted UConn taking over defensively in the second half, which should align well with a low-scoring game on a neutral floor.

Pick your reason, but depth and frontcourt dominance feel like viable paths to cashing as well. UConn’s depth is its biggest strength while questioning Michigan State’s ability to take care of the basketball and defend the three-point line. Again, against a spread this close if UConn dominates the paint and gets better looks from the perimeter it does not need to blow Michigan State out.

Lastly, just consider the resumes surrounding Dan Hurley and his core players. More extensive coverage continues harping on how the Huskies still have that same aura they did when winning the championship two seasons ago. Tough game-winners will be required either way, but when games are this close on the NCAA slate proven veterans can be the difference.

Michigan State is better than you think they should be at this point in the season and Tom Izzo has proven he can coach up in March. Jeremy Fears Jr. and Coen Carr are more than capable of winning this game down in Washington. But edge after edge UConn keeps creeping up and the total simply not being high enough to bank on Michigan State making enough shots to cover.

Jim's Play: 624. Connecticut

Unlike most games with a 1-vs-5 seeding, this game does not project to feature an extremely dominant team. The first reason St. John’s can cover is the number itself is playable. As of publication Duke -6.5 with a total of 141.5. St. John’s is getting over two full possessions in what should still be a close Sweet 16 matchup.

The best reason to side with St. John’s however is simple performance. Despite being a five seed, the Red Storm are 30-6 on the season and just made their first Sweet 16 since 1999 with a 67-65 win over Kansas. St. John’s did not trail in the second half and led by as many as 14 points, showing they can play with and even dominate stretches of a quality opponent.

There is also excellent recent-form evidence. St. John’s has won five games in a row coming into this contest. They’ve won games against Kansas, Northern Iowa, UConn, Seton Hall, and Providence. While Duke is also in a hot streak, St. John’s recent success paints them as a team who defends and excels in clutch situations.

An additional reason this number appeals is purely style of game. This does not project to be a high-scoring game that will fluctuate wildly. The total is down at 141.5 and Duke has gone under in 14 of its last 20 games while St. John’s has gone under in 11 of its last 12. A game that does not have teams scoring often opens up the floor for a +6.5 type spread to mean more because you waste less attempts getting down by double-digits.

On paper, there is no doubt Duke is the better team and should be favored. Duke is 34-2 overall this season while still ranking as the heaviest favorite to reach the Final Four. But, that same article refers to St. John’s as a No. 5 seed who just happened to be one of the highest seeds remaining in the tournament. If you buy into this game playing tight with a low total around 140, then St. John’s catches-plus becomes a lot more attractive.

If the game plays out cleanly for St. John’s, all they have to do is keep it physical, force Duke to execute from the half court, and stay within a possession or two for as long as possible. St. John’s has enough room to get the cover at +6.5.

Jim's Play: 621. St Johns (Sweet 16 Game of the Year)

I like the UNDER here in the Sweet 16 between St Johns and Duke. The current total is around 141.5, which is not especially high, but it still may be a touch rich for a Sweet 16 game between two teams that are fully capable of defending and willing to play half-court basketball in key moments. 

A big under angle is St. John’s style. The Red Storm just beat Kansas 67-65 to reach the Sweet 16, and that game stayed controlled for long stretches before the late dramatics. More broadly, Covers’ trend page shows St. John’s has gone under in 11 of its last 12 games, which is a strong sign that its recent profile has leaned toward lower-scoring games.

Duke brings an under case too. Covers shows the Blue Devils have gone under in 14 of their last 20 games, and recent results support that this is not always a pure track-meet team. Duke’s first-round win over Siena was only 71-65, which is well below this total, and even in the second-round win over TCU, the Blue Devils allowed only 58 points.

Another reason to like the under is game flow. In a Sweet 16 game with a spread of only 6.5, both teams are likely to treat possessions carefully, shorten rotations, and lean on their best defensive lineups. Close tournament games often slow down late unless one side starts trading fouls in the final minute, and this matchup sets up more like a physical half-court battle than a free-flowing offensive game. That is an inference supported by the tight spread, the tournament stage, and both teams’ recent totals trends.

The simplest under script is this: St. John’s makes Duke work in the half court, Duke’s defense keeps the Red Storm from getting easy baskets, and the game lands somewhere in the high 130s rather than the mid-140s.

JIm's Play: 621. St Johns/Duke UNDER