Top Handicapper Jack Jones Expert Sport Picks

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Sam Houston State -2.5

Sam Houston State had yesterday off after beating New Mexico State 69-61 in their opening game of the C-USA Tournament on Wednesday.  Kennesaw State will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day after a 96-87 shootout win over Western Kentucky Thursday.  That rest advantage is a big reason I'm on the Bearkats today.

Kennesaw State has gone just 7-7 SU & 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games since losing leading scorer Simeon Cottle (20.2 PPG).  That includes a pair of losses to Sam Houston State by 6 at home and by 4 on the road.

The Bearkats have gone 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS in their last 16 games overall with their three losses all coming by single-digits and all on the road.  They are the superior team with the rest advantage and should be more than 2.5-point favorites in the semifinals as a result.  Bet Sam Houston State Friday.

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15* Timberwolves/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota -5.5

I love the spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They will be highly motivated for a victory coming off three consecutive losses to the Magic, Lakers and Clippers.  They will take out their frustration on the short-handed Golden State Warriors tonight.

The Warriors just can't function without Curry (27.2 PPG) and Butler (20.0 PPG).  They have gone 5-11 SU & 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall with two of those wins coming against Memphis.  They lost their last two games to the Jazz and Bulls, two tanking teams.  They are also without Moody (11.9 PPG), and both Melton (13.0 PPG) and Post (7.6 PPG) are questionable.  I give them little chance of keeping this game competitive against a feisty Minnesota team tonight.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans +7.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have no incentive to tank because they don't have their first-round pick this year.  Their three losses all came on the road to the Clippers, Lakers and Suns during this 10-game stretch.  Six of their 7 wins have come by double-digits.

The Pelicans are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They are as healthy as they have been all season with each of their top eight scorers all available tonight.  That includes Dejounte Murray, who is gaining confidence with each game playing in 7 games this season for the Pelicans after they traded for him in the offseason.

The Houston Rockets have been grossly overvalued for months.  The Rockets are 15-30 ATS in their last 45 games overall.  They have just 3 wins in their last 19 games by more than 7 points.  They play so slow, struggle on offense and play good defense, which is a recipe for playing to their level of competition.

The Rockets are the much more tired team playing their 6th game in 9 days tonight.  That fatigue showed in a 129-93 road loss at Denver last time out.  And now Alperen Sengun (20.2 PPG, 9.0 RPG) is questionable to even play tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* Fullerton/Hawaii Big West Late-Night BAILOUT on Fullerton +7.5

CS-Fullerton is the most underrated team in the Big West Tournament.  The Titans are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games.  They are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games with their lone loss coming by 2 to Hawaii as 3.5-point dogs.  Now the Titans get their shot at revenge here two weeks later in the Big West Tournament.

This is a Hawaii team that has been grossly overvalued here down the stretch.  The Rainbow Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall with only two wins by more than 7 points.  Those two wins came against UC-Riverside and CS-Bakersfield, the two worst teams in the Big West.  Bet CS-Fullerton Friday.

15* Clemson/Duke ACC ANNIHILATOR on Clemson +11.5

Duke is without two starters in Caleb Foster (8.5 PPG) and Patrick Ngonba Jr. (10.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.1 BPG) for the ACC Tournament.  The loss of Ngonba is huge as he controls everything in the paint for Duke.  Without him, they won't be nearly as dominant defensively.

That was on display yesterday as Duke was life and death in a 80-79 win over Florida State as 17.5-point favorites.  I backed FSU in that game, and I'm fading Duke again today as this line is also ridiculous laying 11.5 points to Clemson.

The Tigers are coming off consecutive wins over Wake Forest and UNC and ready to give Duke a run for its money.  They lost 67-54 as 12.5-point road dogs at Duke in their lone meeting this season.  Both Foster and Ngongba played in that game.  The Blue Devils cannot be 11.5-point favorites on a neutral in the rematch, which is one point less than they were favored by at home.  Bet Clemson Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Kent State/Akron UNDER 164.5

Akron beat Kent State 69-52 at home and 92-70 on the road.  That first meeting saw just 121 combined points.  The 2nd meeting saw 162 combined points, but that was with electric shooting from Akron.  The Zips shot 14-of-28 (50%) from 3-point range while the Golden Flashes shot 13-of-32 (40.6%) themselves.  I doubt either team shoots as well from 3 again.

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  With this being their 3rd meeting of the season, these teams know each other inside and out.  And with a trip to the championship game on the line, this game will be played close to the vest.  I also expect it to be a slower-paced game than expected.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* Atlantic 10 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Joe's -1

St. Joe's is the most underrated team in the Atlantic 10.  The Hawks have gone 13-3 SU & 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall with their three losses all coming by single-digits.  They have won and covered 6 in a row coming into the Atlantic 10 Tournament.

The Hawks earned a bye into the quarterfinals thanks to their big finish.  Now that bye will pay off in a big way with the rest advantage over Davidson tonight.  The Wildcats had to play Thursday and needed OT to beat the worst team in the Atlantic 10 in Loyola-Chicago by a final of 64-59.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank today.

St. Joe's won 70-67 as 1.5-point dogs at Davidson on March 4th just over a week ago.  They have to be more than 1-point favorites on a neutral now in the rematch given their rest advantage.  Bet St. Joe's Friday.

20* Iowa State/Arizona Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +4.5

The Iowa State Cyclones have the best following at the Big 12 Tournament every year.  That's why they call it Hilton South in Kansas City.  That was on display as the Cyclones crushed Arizona State 91-42 in their opener.  They followed it up with another dominant 75-53 win over Texas Tech yesterday.

The blowout nature of those two wins allowed the Cyclones to rest their starters in the 2H and conserve them for the rest of this tournament.  That's why I'm not even giving Arizona much of a rest advantage at all despite the fact that they are playing just their 2nd game in 2 days.

Now the Cyclones want revenge from a 73-57 road loss at Arizona on March 2nd earlier this month.  They shot 29.2% from the field and 23.3% from 3-point range and are clearly due some positive shooting regression in the rematch today.

This will basically be a home game for Iowa State, and it's not being factored into this line enough, which is the case almost every year.  Arizona is going to be the No. 1 seed regardless of what happens in the Big 12 Tournament.  The Wildcats have much less to play for than the Cyclones and won't be all that motivated to beat them again.  Bet Iowa State Friday.

20* UMass/Toledo MAC No-Brainer on UMass +3.5

UMass ranks 300th in KenPom's luck metric.  The Minutemen are 17-15 this season with 13 of those losses coming by single-digits.  They have been a tough luck loser all season.  They finally had some positive luck regression yesterday handing Miami Ohio its first loss of the season to show their potential.  They had taken Miami Ohio to the wire in both regular season meetings as well.

Toledo was in a 77-76 battle with Bowling Green yesterday.  The Rockets really only go 7 deep and won't be able to handle these back-to-back situations as well as a deeper UMass team.  It's also worth noting the Minutemen had 8 days off prior to the MAC Tournament.

UMass beat Toledo 84-82 as 2.5-point home favorites in their lone meeting this season.  Toledo shot 54.9% from the field, 42.9% from 3 and 80% from the FT line and still lost that game.  That bodes well for the Minutemen in the rematch.  Bet UMass Friday.

15* Ole Miss/Alabama SEC ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -10.5

Alabama earned a double-bye into the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament.  That gives the Crimson Tide a big rest advantage over Ole Miss today that should lead to a blowout victory.  The Crimson Tide have been rolling going 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall and are as healthy as they have been all season coming into the SEC Tournament.

Ole Miss pulled off consecutive upsets over Texas 76-66 and Georgia 76-72 the last two days to get here.  Now the Rebels will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days and won't have much left in the tank for Alabama.  You know the Crimson Tide will test those tired legs playing at the 4th-fastest tempo in the country.

Alabama crushed Ole Miss 93-74 on the road as 6.5-point favorites in their lone meeting this season.  This despite shooting just 39.4% from the field as a team, yet they still won by 19.  It will be another blowout in the rematch today due to the rest advantage.  Bet Alabama Friday.

15* Purdue/Nebraska Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +4

Nebraska earned a bye into the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament.  That will give the Huskers the rest advantage over Purdue today.  They want revenge from a 80-77 (OT) home loss to Purdue in their lone meeting this season.  They were 2.5-point favorites in that game, and now are 4-point dogs in the rematch, so there's some value here.

Purdue took advantage of a tired Northwestern team that was playing its 3rd game in 3 days yesterday.  The Boilermakers prevailed 81-68. But they failed to cover as 13.5-point favorites, and are now 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  This team has consistently been overvalued and continues to be today.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

15* Kent State/Akron MAC ANNIHILATOR on Akron -6

Akron is the best team in the MAC even though Miami Ohio had a 31-0 regular season.  I like the fact that Akron was in a rare dog fight yesterday in a 73-70 win over Buffalo.  It was their 8th straight victory overall with 6 of those coming by 13 points or more.

One of those came 92-70 at Kent State as 3.5-point road favorites on February 27th.  Akron also beat Kent State 69-52 at home.  This is clearly a terrible matchup for the Golden Flashes, who just don't have the horses to hang with this elite Akron team that has no weaknesses.  Bet Akron Friday.

20* Ohio State/Michigan Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State +13.5

Ohio State is showing how potent they can be when they are fully healthy like they have been to end the season.  The Buckeyes have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall upsetting Purdue by 8 as 6.5-point dogs, blasting Penn State by 32 on the road and blasting Indiana by 13 as 3.5-point home favorites.

The Buckeyes led by double-digits throughout and held on for a 72-69 win over Iowa yesterday in their opening Big Ten Tournament game.  They overcame the Hawkeyes shooting 47.6% from 3-point range.  They avenged a 17-point loss to Iowa earlier in their first meeting on February 25th.  Now Ohio State is motivated to avenge a pair of losses to Michigan.

The Wolverines won the Big Ten regular season title and swept their biggest rivals in Michigan State in the regular season finale.  I think they come into the Big Ten Tournament 'fat and happy' and I don't think they will be all that motivated at all.  They know they already have a No. 1 seed locked up no matter what happens in the Big Ten Tournament.

It's also worth noting Michigan lost LJ Cason (8.4 PPG) to a season-ending injury three games ago.  He is their most productive player off the bench and it hurts their guard depth.  The Wolverines were in dog fights with Iowa and MSU in their first two games without him.  Either way, I don't think the Wolverines should be 13.5-point favorites today.  Bet Ohio State Friday.

15* Duquesne/VCU Atlantic 10 ANNIHILATOR on VCU -8.5

VCU is 13-1 in its last 14 games overall with its only loss coming on the road to St. Louis.  The Rams earned a bye into the quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament, giving them a big rest advantage over Duquesne that isn't being factored into this line enough.

Duquesne had to play yesterday in a 67-61 win over Rhode Island.  The Duke really only go 7 deep, and 3 starters played at least 36 minutes for them yesterday.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank for VCU, which plays fast and plays pressure defense for 40 minutes.

VCU won 93-80 at Duquesne as 5.5-point road favorites in their lone meeting this season.  Duquesne even shot 52.8% from the field and still lost by 13.  It will be more of the same in the rematch today.  Bet VCU Friday.