Freddy Wills

Florida/Texas AM Over 45 2.2% play 

This is the Aggies first road game, and giving up 23 points to Notre Dame at home certainly is not a good luck at the moment.  A&M's defensive weakness is their secondary, and with less of an ability to get a pass rush going on the road I expect Florida to be able to move the ball through the air on the Aggies.  Graham Mertz probable for this week's game, but 5* freshman DJ Lagway is ready to take snaps as well.  Mike Elko as a head coach on the road has an average total score of 58 points, with only 2 of those 11 going under 45 total points.  Billy Napier is a good offensive mind, and QB coach and they have scored 20+ points in 13 of their last 16 home games.  The Miami game was not a good luck to open the season, but expect the Gators to bounce back, and they certainly can't rely on their defense so Napier has to come up with something here. Texas A&M is 33rd in seconds per play.  Connor Weigman may not play at QB, but the play here is based more on Florida's inability to stop the run. 

Colorado State +7.5 3.3% play

This is a revenge game that went to double over time last year despite Colorado State turning the ball over 4xfr.  I don't understand why Colorado continues to be over rated.  Their offensive and defensive front issues are not going away this week, and there is only so much Shadeur Sanders can do.  Colorado State has to be playing this one with a chip on their shoulder, and l trust Jay Norvell to come up with a game plan that will give Colorado's defense a lot of issues. This Colorado STate team has multiple NFL prospects led by WR Tory Horton who had 16 catches for 133 yards in last year's meeting.  I'm starting to think all the attention on this Colorado team that is brought on by their head coach is getting to them, and the message of swag must be getting old.

East Carolina +105 2% play

East Carolina 2-0 looking to go 3-0 at home on Saturday. Mike Houston brought in Ole Miss co-OC to run the offense and they are going fast.  I think they will give the App State defense some issues, as App State just gave up over 60 points to a Clemson offense that has not been very good the last few years.  App State's run defense in particular is a question here giving up 183 yards in their first game to EAst Tenn State, and then 252 yards to Clemson.  East Carolina has dominated holding their first two opponents to under 100 yards, and their win against Old Dominion on the road was much more impressive than the final scoreboard of 20-14, as they were +200 yards in the game.  Old Dominion nearly upset South Carolina on the road in week 1 and are a solid team.  East Carolina also playing for revenge as they led 28-22 in last year's game before giving up the final 21 points to App State.  Expect East Carolina's conditioning to be the difference in this year's game.

UCLA +3.5 3.3% PLAY

Indiana getting a lot of love right now, but why?  They beat FIU and they beat Western Carolina.  Curt Cignetti comes over from James Madison, but he's still a first year coach, while Ohio transfer Kurtis Rourke has looked good this will be a different task going on the road for the first time, crossing time zones, and facing a UCLA team with an extra week of preparation.  The only data point on UCLA is their 16-13 win at Hawaii, but there are a lot of logistics of going to Hawaii and for a first time head coach in Foster that must have been a real challenge.  He also was without two starting tackles and some other players for the game that will be back for their Big 10 opener.  We have a relatively low total here, and I expect this to be a battle. 

Purdue +8 2.2% play

I don't think this is an over reaction to Notre Dame's loss last week against Northern Illinois.  Notre Dame goes back on the road to face a tough defense at Purdue under Ryan Walters.  Purdue has the extra week of freshness and preparation.  Purdue's offense is led by a veteran QB in Hudson Card, and I think this game will come down to the wire, because Purdue should hold up well enough against hte run.  Notre Dame's transfer QB Riley Leonard has also not looked like himself. I don't know if it's the young geling offensive line, but he seems to have lost all confidence.  His throws have been way off target, and I think Purdue should really be able to focus on the run to force them into 3rd and long.  T

TCU -1 3.3% PLAY 

UCF was just 2-4 on the road last year and still learning to play in the Big 12.  I really like the additions that TCU has made on the coaching staff this year, and for this game there is a lot of familiarity.  DC Andy AValos came over from Boise State who faced UCF last year and held them to 18 points at home.  OC Kendal Briles was the OC at Arkansas last year and helped Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson the last few years develop into the QB he is today.  Jefferson will be the UCF QB here, and I think it's a huge edge to TCU who also has Sonny Dykes as the headman.  TCU run defense has been very good, and that will be the key against UCF.  Not sure why TCU went to +2 earlier, but when limits increased this completely moved to TCU being the favorite again. 

Tulsa +18 2.2% play

Tulsa has nearly pulled the upset here in back to back years, while Oklahoma State is 2-0, they are a very miselading 2-0 getting outgained by over a yard per play in their first two games.  Oklahoma State will very much be okay just getting by and moving on to the rest of their schedule with Utah and Kansas State on deck. This game means much more to Tulsa here and they heave proven that in years past against better Oklahoma State teams. 

LSU/South Carolina Under 48.5 1.1% play 

UAB/Miss St Over 57 2.2% play 

Arkansas/UAB Over 60 2.2% play 

I think Arkansas will be able to move the ball at will on this UAB defense that has not looked great at all.  UAB also playing at a very fast pace much like Arkansas so far this year.  I expect a lot of points by Arkansas and this total is just a bit low according to my data.