Freddy Wills

Eastern Michigan +3.5 -120 4% Play

You can find Eastern Michigan at +100 or +105 at +3, so buying the half point here is worth it to me with a team that typically plays in a lot of close games.  The public is heavily on Georgia Southern from the Sun Belt, and I don't understand exactly why.  While the MAC Conference has not done well in recent years, just 1-4 last year in bowl games I think that gives us some value.  Eastern Michigan is a team that played very well out of conference play beating Purdue on the road, something Ohio State could not do, playing right with San Diego State on the road in which was their third road game in a row.  This team is very excited to be here, and plays with a lot of passion and heart, and I expect that their preparation had just a little more effort than Georgia Southern, the favorite.

Georgia Southern will run the option, and that typically gives teams issues.  However, we saw one team with a worse run defense than Eastern Michigan - Louisiana Monroe ranks 79th to Eastern Michigan's 69th hold Georgia Southern to 138 yards and 3 yards per carry.  Why?  Monroe had an extra week to prepare.  Here we have Eastern Michigan who already saw the option and plenty of time to prepare.  Eastern Michigan lost one game by more than a TD and yes that was against Army who also runs the option.  However, Eastern Michigan held Army to just 4 yards per carry their second fewest yards per carry on the season.  The issue was they could not stop Army on third down.  What differs between Army and Georgia's Southern's offense is Army has a lot more experience running it to perfection and they are much more efficient.  Army one of the best in the country converting third downs at a 55% clip compared to Georgia Southern's 39% third down clip.  Eastern Michigan one of the better 3rd down defenses holding opponents to 37%, and in the red zone their defense is excellent holding opponents to 47% TD's.  It's also not like Georgia Southern has been consistent running the ball they have struggled in other games against Troy, who does have a good run defense, but also against Texas State who ranks 85th in run defense.  So 2 poor run defenses have held Georgia Southern in check.

Georgia Southern also relied greatly on turnovers, and lead the nation at +22, as they did not have a single game with a negative TO margin, and only one at even.  I think that can change having not played in a few weeks, getting used to hard hitting football I would not be shocked if Eastern MIchigan forced some fumbles here.  Eastern Michigan 9th in TO margin, so it should be a good match-up there.  This game will have limited possessions with two run first teams and the total is a very low 45 and has dropped from the 47.5.  Take the dog in bowl games where the total is less than 55 and you would cover the spread 55% of the time.  Another winning trend is fading the % of bets on a side, and you have to do it late when public money comes in, and as of this morning we have well over 60% of the money coming in on Georgia Southern, despite not getting the best of the line move which has moved more than 5 points.  Taking Eastern Michigan is well worth the value here. 

Tulane / Louisiana Over 61 3.3% play 

I have flip flopped on the lean on the side so I'll be playing the total in this game which I have a great feeling for.  Tulane has been far too inconsistent this year, but they have put up points in bunches at time, and fired their offensive coordinator and hired Louisiana's old OC for this one.  So we know there will be a concentration on offense for this game, and new plays come into play with an offensive coordinator making Louisiana really not know what to prepare for.  Louisiana's defense is already one of the worst in the country ranking 116th in yards pe rplay, 99th vs. the run, and 115th vs. the pass, 96th in success rate defense.  I think there is a good reason why Tulane is the favorite here coming from the better conference, and I think they could score into the 30's. 

For Lafayette, their offense has been explosive, and balanced.  They rank 13th in yards per play, and that is elite when you consider they have played 5 elite top 25 defenses including Alabama, App State 2x, and Miss State, all in the top 10.  Tulane is pretty good on defense, but they are more in the middle, and unless you are an elite defense Lafayette gets their points.  In fact in games against top 25 defenses they average just 15.2 points per game, but in their other games against defenses not in the top 25 they averaged 43.3 points per game.  They also are an explosive offense ranking 12th in explosive plays, and are going up against Tulane who is 114th in explosive defense.  I see a lot of points in this one. 

Arizona State / Fresno State Under 54 3.3% play

Pac 12 Arizona State facing off against Fresno State, the Mountain West Champion.  This is an interesting game between Herman Edwards, making his bowl debut and Jeff Tedford, 6-3 SU in bowl games.  Mountain West just 3-6 and 4-5 ATS vs. PAC 12 this year -12 points per game and that’s with Fresno beating UCLA 38-14 earlier this season, and Arizona State losing 21-28 to San Diego State.  

Arizona State’s best offensive player a top 15 pick in NFL Draft WR N’Keal Harry sitting out for the NFL.  Weather looks decent, but I actually think with two run first teams this game should go under the total. You have two of the better defenses from their respective conferences, both don’t give up a lot of big plays ranking 23rd and 7th in explosive defense.  We have seen Arizona State struggle putting up just 21 points vs. a top MWC defense in San Diego State, WR Harry had 9 catches for 86 yards and a TD in that game. Fresno State a much better defense ranking 9th in the nation compared to SD State’s 66th ranking. In the 9 games these two conferences have played each other the average total was 53 points.  With 2 decent defenses

MTSU +7 5.5% NCAAF POD

Conference USA runner up Middle Tennessee vs. Sunbelt Champion App State.  I voted Sunbelt as the better overall conference, but I feel like MTSU has more motivation here when you factor in Father and Son QB & Coach will be playing in their last game together for Middle Tennessee.  The Stockstill’s have had a solid 4 year run, and they go up against another Sun Belt team in a bowl game. Last year they beat Arkansas State. App State loses their head coach to Louisville and DC- Mark Ivey will take over here.

Middle Tennessee has put up pretty good offensive and defensive numbers this year despite having played 3 teams from the best conference in the nation in the SEC.  Strength of schedule clearly on the side of Middle Tennessee. When you look at these conferences they are pretty close, but CUSA challenges themselves more with 23 games this season vs. the Power 5 and 11 vs. the SEC where they went 7-4 ATS.

The Sun Belt on the other hand just 12 games vs. the Power 5 and went 3-9 ATS.  Yet this is clearly the best team from the Sun Belt, but I think losing your head coach Scott Satterfeld is a big lose, he was the coach here for 5 years, and all of these players played for him now suddenly he’s gone.  The team just won the Sun Belt Championship game which was the inaugural game. They beat a team that was 116th in yards per play allowed, and a team that could not stop the run ranking 99th. MIddle Tennessee comes into this game with stronger #s and match up better in my opinion.

App State’s defensive weakness is against the pass, and that’s what MIddle Tennessee does best with Stockstill at QB.  On the flip side App State’s strength of running the ball has gotten weaker over the last few weeks. Really ever since they lost Jalin Moore the team hasn’t been the same offensively.  They will go up against a 60th ranked defense that is better than that ranking when you factor in they have faced 3 SEC opponents. THe last two weeks they faced UAB, a team that runs the ball over 60% of the time, so I think they’ll be ready for this game. This game will be in New Orleans inside so weather won’t impact this game at all and I like for MIddle Tennessee to have a shot to win the game outright.