Frank Sawyer: Expert Sports Betting Picks for Sale

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 10/3:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with San Diego State plus the points versus Texas State. San Diego State (1-3) has lost three games in a row after their 41-16 loss at Toledo as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. The Aztecs return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents. They have also covered the point spread in 8 straight games from Week Five through Week Nine. Texas State (2-2) has won two games in a row after their 63-10 victory against Incarnate Word last Saturday. The Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win at home by 28 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. Take San Diego State plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank has been featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016. More substance, less hype. Evidence, not vibes. Careful. Thorough. Genuine. His reports document his professionalism.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 14 of 19 (74%) Football Game of the Month/Year run which includes DELIVERING their 25* College Football Game of the Month on Florida last Saturday! Frank is on a 25 of 34 (74%) football run — and he furthers his 8 of 10 (80%) College Football run with his 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Month for Saturday! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (182) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (181). THE SITUATION: USC (4-1) lost their first game of the season in a 41-27 loss at home against Oregon as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Washington (3-1) also suffered their first game of the season in a 27-24 upset loss at home against Minnesota as a 12.5-point favorite on Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS MINUS THE POINTS: USC got outplayed by the Ducks, with their defense unable to slow down their offense — and while this team under head coach Lincoln Riley often underachieves relative to point spread expectations, these are circumstances where he usually gets his team to play above projections. The Trojans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home after a straight-up loss to a fellow Pac-12 rival. The Huskies do not possess an explosive offense, which is one of the reasons why the books have USC laying more than a touchdown — and the Trojans have covered the point spread in all 4 of their games at home in the Riley era when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. They have also covered their last 4 games played from Weeks Five through Nine. Riley is accruing talent that is adding size on both sides of the line of scrimmage. All five starters on the offensive line are returning starters. Nine of the 16 players who logged in at least 200 snaps last year return, with seven of them being freshmen or sophomores last year. Veteran defensive coordinator Gary Patterson is a great defensive mind who may still have a trick or two up his sleeve after leading the way in orchestrating the now prevailing 4-2-5 defensive scheme to get an extra nickel back on the field to deal with spread offensive formations. USC has scored at least 39 points in all four of their victories. The offense ranks fifth in the nation in Success Rate. Second-year quarterback Jayden Maiava leads a passing attack that ranks fourth in the nation in Pass Success Rate.  The Trojans should be able to pass the ball at will against this Huskies defense that ranks 60th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and 70th in Opponent Passing Explosiveness Allowed. Running back King Miller leads a rushing game that ranks 36th in Rush Success Rate. Miller is generating 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry after contact — and he has forced 22 missed tackles. Washington only gained 279 yards last week against the Golden Gophers — and they got outgained by -50 net yards. They did not manage even one methodical drive against Minnesota, which is one of the reasons their defense was on the field for 36:01 minutes. Quarterback Demond Williams leads the team with 32 rushing attempts this season — but only nine of those were from designed runs. The Huskies' running backs have been completely ineffective — although it may not be their fault given that they rank 108th in the nation in Adjusted Line Yards. The increased size on the Trojans' defensive line has helped them rank 39th in the FBS in Adjusted Line Yards Allowed. Washington is scoring 28.0 Points-Per-Game — but take away the 48 points they scored against Eastern Washington, and they are scoring just 21.3 PPG against their three FBS opponents. The Huskies' offense does not seem able to keep up in a scoring fest. They rank 64th in Success Rate and 80th in Explosiveness. Their passing game ranks 117th in Passing Explosiveness and 117th in Expected Points Added Per Play. Their rushing attack ranks 110th in Success Rate and 86th in Explosiveness. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 9 games as an underdog under head coach Jedd Fisch — and they have failed to cover the point spread in all 5 of their games against teams that are winning 75% or more of their games with Fisch. 

FINAL TAKE: The scary thing for the Huskies is that the strength of schedule of their four opponents ranks just 80th in the nation according to one set of metrics I follow — and the Trojans rank 23rd in the FBS in those metrics for the schedule they have played so far this season. USC has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games when favored — and Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games played on the road. 10* CFB Washington-USC NBC-TV Special with the USC Trojans (182) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (181). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arizona State Sun Devils (178) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (177). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (2-1) rebounded from their loss at Texas A&M with a 24-17 win against Kansas as a 4.5-point favorite in a game played at Wembley Stadium in London two Saturdays ago. Baylor (3-1) has won three games in a row after their 23-13 win at home against Colorado as an 8.5-point favorite last Saturday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUN DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: Arizona State has the situational edge tonight coming off an extra week of rest after playing in London — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with at least two weeks of rest. After opening their season at home against Morgan State, this is just their second game in front of their home fans this season. Only three starters are back from last year’s squad that finished 8-5 after a 42-39 loss against Duke in the Sun Bowl. Head coach Kenny Dillingham was very active in the transfer portal to replenish the roster. Arizona State’s stats so far this season are not overwhelming — but playing at Texas A&M and then a conference rival in London did not help matters. They are scoring 22.0 Points-Per-Game against those two FBS opponents. But the offense has been explosive, ranking 18th in Explosiveness this season. Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley has been up-and-down so far this season — but the Sun Devils rank  26th in Passing Explosiveness. Running back Kyson Brown is generating 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry and leading a rushing attack that ranks 40th in Rushing Explosiveness. This is an area of vulnerability for Baylor as they rank 88th in the FBS in Opponent Rushing Explosiveness Allowed. The Arizona State defense ranks 25th in the nation by giving up only 2.68 points per trip inside the 40-yard line. They rank 20th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and 34th in Opponent Rushing Explosiveness Allowed. The Sun Devils have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games against fellow Big 12 opponents. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games at home. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their 13 games under Dillingham when favored — and they have covered the point spread in all 5 of those games at home when laying up to seven points. Baylor makes their first trip to Tempe to play the Sun Devils since 1990 in what is their first game on the road this season. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least two games in a row at home. Baylor has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams that are winning 60-75% of their contests. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played in Weeks Five through Nine. Ever since the Bears won the Big 12 Championship in 2021, my seasonal deep dives into this team have included speculation regarding whether that achievement was a fluke under head coach Dave Aranda. After last season’s 5-7 campaign, Baylor has a 22-28 record with only one winning season. After missing the postseason last year, they have only played in two bowl games in the last four seasons. Frankly, Aranda probably is out of a job if not for the Baylor administration first firing athletic director Mack Rhoades late in the football season and seemingly kicking the can on the fate of their football coach until they brought in their next athletic director. If there is a head coach sitting on a hotter seat, I do not know who that is. As I seem to point out every year at this time: “Aranda’s stamp should be on the defensive side of the ball after previously serving as the defensive coordinator at LSU — and there seems to be a disconnect between his schemes with the Tigers and the game plans now with the Bears.” His defense hit rock bottom three years ago by ranking 113th and 110th by surrendering 33.3 Points-Per-Game and 421.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The “fix” two years ago was for Aranda to call the defensive plays while also coaching the linebackers. But the Baylor defense only took small steps forward by surrendering 386.2 total YPG (87th in the FBS) and ranking 63rd in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ defensive ratings. In terms of total yardage, only one of Aranda’s defenses has ranked inside the top 48 in the nation in his five years. Last year, the Bears surrendered 392.1 total YPG, which resulted in 32.6 PPG, ranking 87th and 120th in the nation. They gave up 197.2 rushing YPG, which was the 120th worst in the nation — and there simply is not a Power Four conference opponent that can function effectively if their opponents are averaging 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry. As always for Aranda, he is making changes — and this time it will be different! He has removed himself from calling plays on defense, with this being rationalized as him now being able to help coach the coaches and better evaluate the players, as if that was not the plan in the first four years of his tenure. Admittedly, bringing Joe Klanderman as his defensive coordinator is more than solid — he has been the defensive coordinator at Kansas State the last six seasons.  Four starters are back on that side of the ball — and Aranda added ten players in the transfer portal who had starts at the FBS level last year, including five defensive players who were Wildcats who played for Klanderman. Aranda probably saved his job two years ago when he tapped Joe Spavital from California to be his offensive coordinator. The special teams and offense were quite good last year — the Bears generated 451.1 total YPG, which resulted in 31.1 PPG, ranking 18th and 33rd in the nation. Aranda was able to bring in former five-star blue-chipper D.J. Lagway as the starting quarterback after two inconsistent seasons with some nice highs but some ugly lows at Florida. But only three of the 16 players who logged in at least 200 snaps on offense are back. Once again, Baylor is relying heavily on the transfer portal. Aranda is not succeeding enough at high school recruiting and sustaining a good culture. Four of the top five wide receivers and their top tight end are gone from last year. Aranda had to rely on the transfer portal for an offensive line that lost four of their five starters from last year. With 15 starters back last season, 2025 was supposed to be the year when the program returned to the glory days of 2021. In their Big 12 championship run in 2021, an opportunistic defense helped them rank tied for sixth in the country with a +12 net turnover margin — but they only ranked 31st in total defense by giving up 345.9 total YPG. Last year, the Bears were tied for the second-worst turnover margin at -13. As I wrote in my deep dive last year: “While there may be a problem matching his sophisticated schemes with the talent on the roster, there are significant problems in both recruiting high-end talent and simple player development for those on the roster … Baylor will likely go only as far as their defense allows them.” I appreciate Aranda continuing to tinker and moving away from calling plays again, but that is probably his strength as a football coach. The talk is that he is socially awkward, which may explain the leadership and culture issues for this program in Waco. Aranda would not be the first football coach who was simply a better fit as a coordinator than a head coach. The Bears defense has not given up more than 19 points this season — but only two of their four opponents have been Power Four conference teams. The bigger concern may be the offense after only gaining 337 yards last week against the Buffaloes — and Colorado outgained them by 26 net yards. Lagway completed only 19 of his 39 passes for a 48.7% completion percentage. Baylor is scoring only 19.5 PPG against Power Four conference opponents. Their offense ranks 104th in Success Rate. Their passing attack drags that number down as they rank 116th in Passing Success Rate. Their rushing attack ranks just 98th in Explosiveness. 

FINAL TAKE: This is a critical game for these two programs as the winner jettisons themselves into the conversation to contend to play in the Big 12 Championship Game while the loser will begin to worry about the direction of their season. Arizona State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams that are winning 75% or more of their games. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Month with the Arizona State Sun Devils (178) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (177). Best of luck for us — Frank.