Frank Sawyer: Expert Sports Betting Picks for Sale

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR MONDAY, 1/20:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Monday is with the Utah Jazz plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans. Utah (10-30) has lost five of their last six games after a 136-123 loss at New Orleans against this Pelicans team as an 11-point underdog on Friday. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. New Orleans (11-32) has won three games in a row after their win against Utah — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 220s. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams winning 25-40% of their games. Take Utah plus the points versus New Orleans. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer is on a 9 of 11 (82%) Football Game of the Year/Month run which includes CA$HING his 25* CFB Total of the Year with the Texas-Ohio State Under on January 10th! Frank DELIVERED his 25* College Football Game of the Year on Michigan in the National Championship Game last January to make it FOUR STRAIGHT #1 College Football Game of the Year winners in the last four seasons! Frank then CA$HED his NFL Game of the Year on Kansas City in the Super Bowl last February to make it THREE STRAIGHT #1 NFL Game of the Year winners in the last three seasons! Frank kept it going last April by WINNING his College Basketball Game of the Year winner on Purdue in the Final Four to make it FOUR STRAIGHT #1 College Basketball Game of the Year winners in the last four years! Now Frank UNLEASHES his 25* College Football Game of the Year for the ’24-25 season with the Ohio State-Notre Dame ATS winner on ESPN at 7:30 PM ET! BANK on Frank!

Frank was a WINNING 6-2 in the NFL this weekend after their 3-1 NFL Sunday culminating in ANOTHER NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEP with Buffalo and the Ravens-Bills Over last night! Frank is on a 7 of 10 (70%) All-Sports run — and now he furthers his 7 of 9 (78%) Football streak this month with tonight’s Buckeyes-Fighting Irish O/U winner! WATCH and WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (287) and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (288) in the College Football National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (13-2) has won three games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 28-14 win against Texas in the College Football Semifinals as a 4.5-point favorite on January 10th. Notre Dame (14-1) has won 13 games in a row after their 27-24 upset win against Penn State as a 1-point underdog on January 9th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Fighting Irish held the Nittany Lions to just 339 yards last week. They have a sound fundamental defense with an outstanding secondary that limited their opponents to 301.1 total Yards-Per-Game which resulting in only 14.3 Points-Per-Game. They have held their three playoff opponents to 304.3 total YPG which has resulted in just 17.0 PPG. Overall, they ranked fifth in the nation in SP+ defense according to the metrics of ESPN’s Bill Connelly. They are particularly tough on third down where they hold their opponents to under a 30% conversion rate — and Georgia and Penn State only converted 5 of their 23 third downs (21.7%) in their last two games. This is an area of vulnerability for the Buckeyes who are dependent on quarterback Will Howard’s legs to move the football on key downs. When Ohio State does not need more than six yards and his scrambling is still a legitimate threat, the Buckeyes are converting 50% of those plays. But when it is third-and-seven or more yards, the Buckeyes are converting only 22.4% of those plays. Head coach Marcus Freeman is going to attempt to slow this game to a stall. They rank 41st in run rate as it is — so the clock will keep moving then they have the ball. In their three playoff games, the Irish have held the ball for just under 32:30 minutes per contest. The Fighting Irish lacks wide receivers who can separate — and this lack of explosiveness and a reliable number one option allows defenses to play their strong safety in the box. Leonard is not a dynamic passer either with accuracy issues and not a particularly strong arm. He is more of a running threat — but a spy can address that. He has passed for only 514 passing yards in the three playoff games. The best unit in this game is the Ohio State defense. Only Oregon has scored more than 17 points against them all season -- and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles made some adjustments from that regular season battle which resulted in the Ducks only gaining 276 yards from a mere 3.9 Yards-Per-Play two weeks ago after generating 496 total yards from 7.3 YPP in their earlier meeting. The Buckeyes' pass rush has been ferocious in the postseason led by defensive ends J.T Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer. Knowles' decision to move from a 4-3-4 to a nickel 4-2-5 base formation after the loss to the Ducks in the regular season really paid dividends. Moving Jordan Hancock to the single high safety position in a Cover-1 scheme freed up Caleb Downs to roam the field — and Downs will be given the spy responsibilities on Leonard to prevent him from big gains from his legs. The Buckeyes’ defense leads the nation whether it is using the SP+ metrics from ESPN’s Bill Connelly or the Opponent Expected Points per Play Allowed numbers. They hold their opponents to just under 23 points below their season scoring average. A limited offense is not going to score on an elite defense like this — especially given Irish running back Jeremiah Love’s knee injury leaving him far from 100% and fellow sophomore Jadarian Price’s struggles to take over as the lead back. The Buckeyes’ Red Zone defense is particularly stout with his high-profile goal-line stands this season against Penn State and Texas. They lead the nation by limiting their opponents to just 15 touchdowns in their 36 trips inside their 20-yard line. The Irish do not have the same type of weapons in the passing game — whether it be wide receivers or tight ends — to offer diversity in these “red area” plays to quote Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and those others in the Patriots learning tree. As it is, Ohio State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame needs to play a third-straight lower-scoring game against Ohio State to keep this one close — and they do rank second in the nation by only giving up 14.3 PPG. The last two games between these two teams since 2021 saw 31 combined points scored in both contests. The Buckeyes have played 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field as a favorite Under the Total. 10* CFB Ohio State-Notre Dame O/U ESPN Special with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (287) and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (287) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (288) in the College Football National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (13-2) has won three games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 28-14 win against Texas in the College Football Semifinals as a 4.5-point favorite on January 10th. Notre Dame (14-1) has won 13 games in a row after their 27-24 upset win against Penn State as a 1-point underdog on January 9th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: On paper, there is a talent mismatch between these two teams. Ohio State has 15 players on their roster who are graded as a five-star recruit coming out of high school. Notre Dame has only one five-star recruit— and injuries all season have diluted their ideal talent base for this ultimate game. And I remain steadfast that this Fighting Irish team reached this championship game because of a favorable schedule. In my deep dive on them in the preseason, I observed that the closest thing to a signature victory in the first two seasons under head coach Marcus Freeman was either a victory against a mediocre Clemson team two seasons ago or a win against a mediocre USC team last year. They beat another mediocre Texas A&M team to begin the season before getting upset by Northern Illinois. Granted they then went on to beat all the service academy and second-tier ACC opponents on their schedule. They beat USC again — but surrendering 360 passing yards to a former UNLV quarterback who began the season as a second-stringer raises serious doubt about the quality of their pass defense. In the playoffs, they overwhelmed an Indiana team that also benefited from a soft schedule. Then the Irish beat Georgia in what is now the top victory in the Freeman era — but that Bulldogs team did not have any first-team All-Americans in what was the least threatening roster head coach Kirby Smart has had in his tenure there perhaps ever. Georgia also had a sophomore quarterback make his first career start in that game — and yet except for a 54-second span to end the half and start the second half when Notre Dame scored 17 unanswered points, that game was even. And then in the Spiderman Social Media Meme Bowl against Penn State (I consider both programs to be mirror images of each other), somebody had to win — and the unity and cohesion that Freeman has brought to his team was just enough to overcome the Nittany Lions finding ways to lose big games under head coach James Franklin. In this instance, it was the luck of the Irish that led to Penn State quarterback Drew Allar’s bad interception late in that game on a potential game-winning drive which gave Freeman’s team the ball almost already in field goal position. Sorry, I just don’t give much credit for salvaging a victory against Penn State after trying to give that game away in the fourth quarter themselves — and due to quarterback Riley Leonard throwing two interceptions, it was the first time since the upset loss to Northern Illinois when Notre Dame lost the turnover battle. Can the Irish win this game without winning the turnover battle? The Buckeyes have only five turnovers in their last six games — and two of those giveaways were against Michigan. So perhaps the deeper question is: can Notre Dame replicate the Wolverines' formula for success? These two teams are now playing each other for the third time in three straight seasons. Ohio State won at home by a 21-10 score in 2022 before pulling out a 17-14 win in South Bend last season. Three points from those games. First, the Fighting Irish scored only 24 combined points in those two games (more on that below) Second, both were played in September when Buckeyes’ head coach Ryan Day was still keeping his playbook limited. Third, after former Notre Dame head coach Lou Holtz called out Day’s team for being too soft, Day became obsessed with proving how tough he/his team was — and that dictated a run-heavy game script. Day would after the game call out the septuagenarian for daring to challenge the toughness of his group (something only insecure people feel the need to do). Day’s demons would later get the best of him this season as his obsession to prove to the world how tough his team/he is played right into Michigan’s hands in that upset loss in late November. Day was made into a laughingstock after that loss — but the playoffs are his redemption tour. If there is one thing he is not going to do in this game, it is not getting his uber-talented wide receivers involved enough. Relying on pass-first game plans in the playoffs, the Buckeyes raced out to a 21-0 first quarter lead against Tennessee, a 34-8 halftime against Oregon, and then a 7-0 lead and a 14-7 lead against the Longhorns. Notre Dame cannot afford to fall behind by more than one score because they are very limited in the passing game. The Fighting Irish lacks wide receivers who can separate — and this lack of explosiveness and a reliable number one option allows defenses to play their strong safety in the box. Leonard is not a dynamic passer either with accuracy issues and not a particularly strong arm. He is more of a running threat — but a spy can address that. He has passed for only 514 passing yards in the three playoff games. The best unit in this game is the Ohio State defense. Only Oregon has scored more than 17 points against them all season -- and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles made some adjustments from that regular season battle which resulted in the Ducks only gaining 276 yards from a mere 3.9 Yards-Per-Play two weeks ago after generating 496 total yards from 7.3 YPP in their earlier meeting. The Buckeyes' pass rush has been ferocious in the postseason led by defensive ends J.T Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer. Knowles' decision to move from a 4-3-4 to a nickel 4-2-5 base formation after the loss to the Ducks in the regular season really paid dividends. Moving Jordan Hancock to the single high safety position in a Cover-1 scheme freed up Caleb Downs to roam the field — and Downs will be given the spy responsibilities on Leonard to prevent him from big gains from his legs. The Buckeyes’ defense leads the nation whether it is using the SP+ metrics from ESPN’s Bill Connelly or the Opponent Expected Points per Play Allowed numbers. They hold their opponents to just under 23 points below their season scoring average. A limited offense is not going to score on an elite defense like this — especially given Irish running back Jeremiah Love’s knee injury leaving him far from 100% and fellow sophomore Jadarian Price’s struggles to take over as the lead back. The last 16 teams to win the National Championship Game who failed to score at least 21 points have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of those games. Ohio State has scored at least 31 points in 11 of their 15 games this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their last game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Fighting Irish are outscoring their opponents by +22.7 Points-Per-Game — but the Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame needs to play a third-straight lower-scoring game against Ohio State to keep this one close — and they do rank second in the nation by only giving up 14.3 PPG. But the Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 12 of their 15 games the last three seasons against teams who do not allow more than 17.0 PPG (and two of those games were against Michigan). 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (287) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.