Frank Sawyer: Expert Sports Betting Picks for Sale

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Leicester City (200093) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200094). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W17-D8-L9) looks to build off a 1-1 draw at Arsenal on Tuesday. Bournemouth (W7-D7-L20) snapped a five-game losing streak with a nil-nil draw at home versus Tottenham on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes have only lost one match in their five games in Project Restart but they are disappointed with settling for three draws over that span. Leicester City was playing their best soccer in the fall before taking a step back — but they remain in 4th place in the EPL table with a one-point lead over Manchester United pending this match week’s results. But there are reasons for optimism for this team: Jamie Vardy has scored three goals in the last two games. As Vardy goes, so do the Foxes. If he gets into form, he can carry this team on his shoulders. He has more Big Chances of scoring opportunities with at least a 35% success rate over the last two games matches the number of Big Chances he has generated in his previous nine matches combined. The Foxes are playing stingy defense as they have allowed just four goals in their five matches since the return. Leicester City tends to feast on the bottom teams in the league as well. The Foxes are W15-D5-L4 in their twenty-four matches against non-Big Six sides while scoring 52 goals and allowing just 11 goals. Additionally, Leicester City is W7-D2-L3 in their twelve road matches against non-Power Six opponents with 27 goals and just nine goals conceded. Bournemouth has scored just three goals in Project Restart while conceding 12 goals. This is a team that seems resigned to being relegated under manager Eddie Howe who seems to have run out answers for this team. The Cherries play an open-style of play which is entertaining — but it is also dangerous when they are not scoring plenty of goals. Bournemouth had allowed nine goals in their previous two matches before not allowing the Spurs to score in their last match. That result may speak more to the woeful state of Tottenham right now under enigmatic manager Jose Mourinho than it does about any improved play with the Cherries. The 2.4 goals-per-game they are allowing since the restart is the highest number in the EPL. Bournemouth is just W5-D4-L15 in their twenty-four matches against non-Big Six sides while scoring 21 goals and allowing 39 goals.

FINAL TAKE: Bournemouth did win the expected goals battle with Tottenham by a 1.50-0.67 xG clip but that was the first time they outperformed their opponent in that metric since the restart. They enter this match with two fewer days of rest which will not help their chances of fending off relegation. The Cherries find themselves six points from safety entering this match. Leicester City won the reverse fixture back on August 31st by a 3-1 score. The Foxes are motivated and rested — and they tend to play their best soccer against the weaker teams. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Leicester City (200093) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200094). Best of luck for us — Frank.

The NASCAR Cup Series moves to the Kentucky Speedway in Sparta, Kentucky for the Quaker State 400. This is a relatively new race on the Cup Series circuit with its inaugural race in 2011. The surface was replaced in 2016 to make it one of the smoothest tracks on the tour with its relative ease on tires. With a 1.5-mile oval race track, this intermediate course compares closest to the tracks at the Las Vegas Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway with its same length along with the less ominous driving surface.

Our Long Shot Bet on a driver who is outside the top-ten favorites to win this race is on Aric Almirola who Bovada lists at +2800 to win this race. I will throw a flyer on this Stewart-Haas driver who has finished in the top-five in five straight NASCAR Cup Series races after his 3rd place finish last week. Almirola has yet to win a race this year — but three 3rd places in his last four races are awfully close. The Stewart-Haas Racing team would love to push him to a victory. He was rated as the 6th best driver at this race last year — and he finished in 8th place last year. Almirola is also in a nice 4th starting position for this race. Almirola is linked with William Byron for head-to-head betting propositions for this race. Byron has not been able to put together a complete race for Hendrick Motor Sports this year. He finished in 27th place last week. Byron has just four top-ten finishes in his twelve races since the return to action with his best result being a 7th place on the Sunday two weeks ago for the Pocono 350. This is his third Cup Series race at the Kentucky Motor Speedway after middling 18th and 20th place results in the last two years. And he starts far behind Almirola in the 21st position. Take Almirola (7627) versus Byron (7665) in head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us — Frank.

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The NASCAR Cup Series moves to the Kentucky Speedway in Sparta, Kentucky for the Quaker State 400. This is a relatively new race on the Cup Series circuit with its inaugural race in 2011. The surface was replaced in 2016 to make it one of the smoothest tracks on the tour with its relative ease on tires. With a 1.5-mile oval race track, this intermediate course compares closest to the tracks at the Las Vegas Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway with its same length along with the less ominous driving surface.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the driver who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Ryan Blaney who Bovada lists at +1000 to win this race. Blaney did not finish last week at the Brickyard to settle with an uninspiring 32nd finish — but he was, once again, in the hunt. Blaney’s Ford card for Team Penske has been one of the fastest on the tour this season. He was unlucky two weeks ago to finish in 12th and 22nd place in the two races at Pocono despite generating the 5th most laps in the lead over those two races. Blaney had rattled-off four top-five finishes in five straight races before these last three events — including a victory at the Talledega Superspeedway in mid-June. Blaney has finished in the top-thirteen in his last three races at the Kentucky Speedway including a 2nd place finish in 2018 — so he will be very comfortable racing here. Blaney is linked with Joey Logano in head-to-head betting propositions for this event. Logano comes off a 10th place result last week at the Brickyard. But Logano has been a disappointment overall for Team Penske after opening the season with two victories in the first four events. His 10th place finish last week was his best result in his last five races. And in his twelve races since the return to action, Logano has only finished inside the top-ten just three times. Take Blaney (7625) versus Logano (7626) in head-to-head betting propositions. Bst of luck for us -- Frank.

The NASCAR Cup Series moves to the Kentucky Speedway in Sparta, Kentucky for the Quaker State 400. This is a relatively new race on the Cup Series circuit with its inaugural race in 2011. The surface was replaced in 2016 to make it one of the smoothest tracks on the tour with its relative ease on tires. With a 1.5-mile oval race track, this intermediate course compares closest to the tracks at the Las Vegas Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway with its same length along with the less ominous driving surface.

Our Best Bet to win this race is on Denny Hamlin who Bovada lists at +550 to win this race. Hamlin looks destined to win last week at the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis being in the lead with just seven laps to go before his right tire blew that ended his race. That was another tough-luck loss for us (we lost the Coca-Cola 600 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway in May when a late caution flag ruined Chase Elliott’s lead with just three laps left as he was forced to take a pit stop to ruin his potential +650 payout) — we are due a vulture victory one of these weeks from the Regression Gods in what remains a profitable NASCAR campaign, just sayin.’ I like taking drivers (and driving teams) come off a frustrating loss — Joe Gibbs Racing certainly has some issues to address given their tire issues last week. JGR is a top-notch group who should address the problems — and there is a good argument to be had that Hamlin has been the best driver on the tour this year. Hamlin is tied with last week’s winner in Kevin Harvick with four wins on the Cup Series tour this year — and he has nine top-five finishes in 2020. Hamlin had finished in the top-five in five of his last six races along with six of these last eight races before last week’s ill-fortune. He won the second race at Pocono two weeks ago and he won the Dixie Vodka 400 at the Homestead-Miami Speedway a month ago — so there is no question he is in form. The conventional wisdom is that it is Harvick and him who are the two fastest drivers on the Cup Series right now. I saw Hamlin outduel Harvick last week before struck by the Gods with that right tire. With Hamlin now just one of the top-four favorites, I love his value. He is effective on intermediate tracks with three victories in his last ten events when on 1.5-mile tracks with 304 combined laps in the lead over that span. Hamlin also has four top-fives here at the Kentucky Speedway with an average finish of 8.6 in his last five trips at this course. Hamlin is linked with Martin Truex in head-to-head betting propositions. Truex has won here twice in the last three years here for this race. But Hamlin’s Joe Gibbs’ teammate is not in good form right now. A spark plug malfunction early last week ended Truex’s day prematurely for a 38th place finish out of the forty driver field. Truex won in Martinsville earlier this season after the restart but he has only one result inside the top-ten since that triumph in his last five races. And if things are close between these two drivers, it is Hamlin who is better positioned to win the Cup Series championship so he will likely be given the benefit of the doubt in close strategic decisions. Take Hamlin (7615) versus Truex (7616) in head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The headlining event for UFC 251 sees Kamaru Usman defend his 170-lb welterweight title against Jorge Masvidal with this fight tentatively scheduled to start at 12:10 AM ET early Sunday morning at Fight Island in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates. Masvidal was the initially planned opponent for Usman for this event before Dana White settled on Nate Diaz — but when Diaz was diagnosed with COVID-19 last week, Masvidal was named as the replacement with just six days of notice. Our Best Bet for this fight is for Usman to earn the victory which Bovada currently lists at a -250 price. Usman (16-1) won the title last year in a decision victory over Tyron Woodley at UFC 235 and he comes off his first successful title defense on December 14th when he knocked out Colby Covington with just 50 seconds left in the 5th round at UFC 245. The Nigerian Nightmare is a physical monster who is a cardio machine. While continuing to develop into a formidable striker while being a dangerous kickboxer, Usman thrives on the mat with his outstanding MMA wrestling skills. He should grind out a victory over Masvidal. The Gamebred offers a great story with this being his first UFC title opportunity in his seventeen-year career. Masvidal (35-13) is a highly-respected fighter who has been consistently fighting top-notch fighters since 2005. He is so good that he fought Nate Diaz back on November 2nd for the newly created gimmick of the BMF belt (“Baddest Mother F****r) which he won with a 3rd round knockout. Masvidal has been thinking about this fight — and he reportedly is a workout machine — so I do not think the lack of preparation time hurts him too much (and perhaps that is mitigated by Usman having to change his tactics). But the fact that Masvidal had to drop 20 pounds in six days to make weight for this fight has to play a role — especially when facing such a strong opponent in the Nightmare. Masvidal has good takedown defensive skills — but he may not have ever faced as physical a specimen as Usman. Masvidal does have the tendency to let his opponent dictate the style and pace of the fight. If he lets Usman back him into the cage for grappling, that is not the way that Gamebred tends to win fights. Masvidal has a striking edge and probably has more weapons at his disposal — but Usman’s wrestling techniques will force him to play defense with this clinching sapping his strength. Osman has won fifteen straight fights while being a perfect 11-0 in the octagon since his first fight in the UFC in 2015. He should continue his stranglehold in this division with the win.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the prop bet that offers the most value in this fight is on this fight to last at least four complete rounds which Bovada lists at -125. Usman is not an elite finisher — he has only seven KO/TKOs on his professional resume with just one submission. The Nigerian Nightmare has won only two of his last eleven fights via KO/TKO. He is quite content to grind out a victory in this match and win via the points on the scorecard. Given the new opponent who will likely come out of the gates very aggressive, I expect Usman to be cautious early while not engaging in a striking contest but instead working to get Masvidal on the mat. At that point, he can look to slowly sap Gambred’s strength. Despite his experience, Masvidal has fewer five-round fights under his belt than Usman who has seen all five of his last five fights enter the 5th round with three going to the cards. Four of Masvidal’s last five fight losses have come from a split decision. And while Usman did win via a KO/TKO in his last fight against Covington last December, that finish did occur late in the 5th round. Since this bet is not dependent on Usman winning, it also serves as a de-facto hedge bet in case Masvidal pulls the upset (via decision or 5th round stoppage). Our Long Shot Bet for this fight with a proposition paying off at an underdog price is on Usman to win via a decision which Bovada lists at +150. This shapes up to be a tactical fight similar to the one that Usman fought against Woodley to win the title. Woodley had a striking edge in that fight but succumbed to Usman’s grappling that sapped his strength. But it is also telling that Usman was not able to finish Woodley despite the reigning champion’s declining skills. Best of luck for us — Frank.