Frank Sawyer: Expert Sports Betting Picks for Sale

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 5/14:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Thursday is with the Vegas Golden Knights with the money-line versus the Anaheim Ducks in Game Six of their Western Conference semifinals series. Vegas (46-30-17) has won six of their last eight games after their 3-2 win in overtime at home against the Ducks on Tuesday. The Golden Knights have a 3-2 lead in this best-of-seven series — and they have won 9 of their last 13 games after winning their last game. They have also won 7 of their last 10 games on the road. Anaheim (49-37-7) has lost four of their last seven games — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after allowing three goals or less in their last game. The Ducks have also lost 4 straight games following a game that went to overtime. Take Vegas with the money-line. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports’ 18 of 21 (86%) NHL Game of the Month/Year Playoff mark improved after DELIVERING their 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Year with the Colorado/Minnesota Over last night to fuel their 22 of 26 (85%) NHL playoff run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays! Frank is on a 31 of 43 (72%) NHL featured plays run — and now he furthers his 12 of 14 (86%) NHL TOTALS TEAR in the playoffs with featured plays with his 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Year for the Vegas-Anaheim O/U winner on TNT at 9:40 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in Game Six of the Western Conference semifinals series between the Vegas Golden Knights (39) and the Anaheim Ducks (40). THE SITUATION: Vegas (46-30-17) has won six of their last eight games after taking the fifth game of this series by a 3-2 score in overtime on Tuesday. Anaheim (49-32-7) now trails by a 3-2 margin in this series after losing two of the last three games. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Golden Knights have scored at least three goals in three straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests. Mark Stone remains questionable with the injury he sustained in Game Three — but don’t underestimate how his loss impacts their defensive play since he is always in consideration for the Selke Award for the best defensive forwards in the NHL. Getting back William Karlsson, since he has been out with an injury since November, helps mitigate the loss of Stone — and he may play in Game Six as he is listed as questionable after missing Game Five. But an even bigger loss for tonight’s game is the suspension of top-pair defenseman Brayden McNabb, who is out for Game Six because of his misconduct penalty on Tuesday. The Vegas blue line was already shorthanded because of injuries — and now head coach John Tortorella has to reshuffle who pairs with Shea Theodore. This is a troubling development for this team, considering the level of play from goaltender Carter Hart when playing on the road in this postseason. In his five playoff games on the road in these playoffs, he has a .877 save percentage. Even worse, he has a -3.17 Goals Saved Above Expectation (GSAX) with three of those games being underwater. Translated, this means that Hart has allowed three more goals on the road this postseason than the average NHL goaltender. The Golden Knights have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road. And while the Ducks register 30.9 Shots-Per-Game, Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams who generate 29.5 or more Shots-Per-Game. Anaheim has played 14 of their last 18 home games Over the Total after losing their last game. They return home, where they have played 14 of their last 23 games Over the Total — and they have played 28 of their last 43 games Over the Total on home ice. They have also played 15 of their last 21 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. Ducks goaltender Lukas Dostal was solid in Game Five with 29 stops on the 32 shots on target he faced — and he sported a positive +0.81 GSAx mark. But Anaheim is not getting great goaltending from Dostal in these playoffs. He has a 3.36 Goals-Against-Average and a .878 save percentage in his 11 starts — and his -3.5 GSAx mark is the worst of all goalies who have played in this postseason. In his last three games in this series, Dostal has a .852 save percentage and -1.14 GSAx.

FINAL TAKE: The Ducks have played 20 of their last 31 games Over the Total when playing with revenge, including 11 of those 17 games played at home. 25* NHL Pacific Division Total of the Year with Over the Total in Game Six of the Western Conference semifinals series between the Vegas Golden Knights (39) and the Anaheim Ducks (40). Best of luck for us — Frank.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Aronimink Golf Club in Newton Square, Pennsylvania, for the PGA Championship. This golf course is located 15 miles west of downtown Philadelphia. This was the site where Gary Player won the PGA Championship in 1962. Since then, the biggest PGA Tour event hosted here was the 2018 PGA BMW Championship in the second-to-last leg of the FedEx playoffs that fall. Donald Ross originally designed the golf course, before Gil Hanse oversaw a significant restoration in 2018, before the FedEx event. This is a Par 70 course, consisting of 7394 yards. The handful of professionals who played in that BMW Championship will now see an additional 127 yards of length to the course. Four of the Par 4s have added yardage along with the Par-3 fifth hole since 2018. The rough is up to three inches. Water hazards impact three of the holes. The 174 sand bunkers are four more than in 2018. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass with the often elevated greens averaging 82000 square feet. This is the second major championship on the PGA Tour this season for the 156 competitors at the 108th incarnation of the PGA Championship. The top 70 players plus ties after Round Two will make the weekend cut.

LONG SHOT: Tyrrell Hatton (+5900 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hatton (7155) versus Jordan Spieth (7156) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:29 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Tyrrell Hatton, who is listed at +5900 odds at DraftKings. Hatton continues to quietly excel at major championships while making little other fanfare on the LIV Tour. He finished in a tie for fourth place at the US Open last year — and after a tie for 16th place at the British Open last July, he finished in a tie for third place at the Masters last month. Since 2022, he has made the cut in 16 of his last 17 major championships with seven top 15 finishes. He excels at difficult courses that are not more than 7400 yards in length. In his last 36 rounds on the PGA Tour against strong and very strong fields, he ranks fifth in Ball-Striking. He also ranks fifth in Strokes-Gained: Par 4s and Strokes-Gained: Difficult and Very Difficult scoring conditions in his last 36 rounds in PGA events.  

Hatton is linked with Justin Spieth in Round One head-to-head props. Perhaps the most overrated golfer in the world right now. After his 52nd place finish at the PGA Truist Championship last week, he has finished outside the top 10 in all 12 of his PGA events this season. What are we taking about, outside of nostalgia for Obama-era golf (when we cashed tickets on him, admittedly). He ranks 77th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 73rd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He did play the PGA BMW Championship in 2018, but he settled for 55th place. Take Hatton (7155) versus Spieth (7156) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Aronimink Golf Club in Newton Square, Pennsylvania, for the PGA Championship. This golf course is located 15 miles west of downtown Philadelphia. This was the site where Gary Player won the PGA Championship in 1962. Since then, the biggest PGA Tour event hosted here was the 2018 PGA BMW Championship in the second-to-last leg of the FedEx playoffs that fall. Donald Ross originally designed the golf course, before Gil Hanse oversaw a significant restoration in 2018, before the FedEx event. This is a Par 70 course, consisting of 7394 yards. The handful of professionals who played in that BMW Championship will now see an additional 127 yards of length to the course. Four of the Par 4s have added yardage along with the Par-3 fifth hole since 2018. The rough is up to three inches. Water hazards impact three of the holes. The 174 sand bunkers are four more than in 2018. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass with the often elevated greens averaging 82000 square feet. This is the second major championship on the PGA Tour this season for the 156 competitors at the 108th incarnation of the PGA Championship. The top 70 players plus ties after Round Two will make the weekend cut.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Matt Fitzpatrick (+2300 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fitzpatrick (7196) versus Justin Thomas (7195) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:54 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Matt Fitzpatrick, who is listed at +2300 odds to win this event at DraftKings. No golfer is an auto-play for me. Odds, course history, and course fit will always remain predominant considerations — and those variables fluctuate from week-to-week on the PGA Tour. But as long as Fitzpatrick remains in top-level form, playing on courses where he has a strong history, and the books are offering odds in this range, it is going to be hard to resist. He has won three of his last five PGA Tour events after he joined his brother to win the PGA Zurich Challenge in New Orleans three weeks ago. We were on Fitzpatrick a month ago when he won the PGA RBC Heritage Championship. We were also on him when he was our Best Bet when he won the Valspar Championship in March, which paid off at 15-1. I considered Fitzpatrick closely but passed on him at the Masters, where he settled for a tie for 18th place. He gained significant strokes versus the field at Augusta National in both Shots-Gained: Off the Tee and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. We were also on Fitzpatrick when he gave away the championship at THE PLAYERS Championship. He had a lead late in Round Four of that event before Cameron Young birdied the 17th hole. Young then hit the longest drive on the 18th hole ever at TPC Sawgrass of 375 yards to put him in a great opportunity for a birdie. Fitzpatrick hit his drive into the rough. But Young missed his birdie putt — leaving Fitzpatrick with a 12-footer to force a playoff. But the Englishman missed the putt and had to settle for second place. He is solid with his power off-the-tee as he ranks 57th on the tour in Driving Distance. But what is making him elite is his control of his driver, as he ranks sixth on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy. Overall, he ranks 28th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He has never been in better form when it comes to his driver and iron play. He has lost strokes versus the field in the Tee-to-Green metric just once since last June. He is third on the PGA Tour in 2026 in Ball-Striking. He ranks third in Shots-Gained: Tee to Green. He has been good with his driver — but it is his improved iron play that has made the difference this year. His ranking of fifth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green is a career high. The former US Open winner has made the cut in every professional event worldwide since last year’s Masters. He won the DP World Championship in the fall. His putter has sometimes held him back this season — but he ranked 30th in Shots-Gained: Putting last year, so this is likely just a temporary blip. There is a good case to be made that his struggles with his blade are simply a product of his struggles on the Poa Annua surfaces that dominate the West Coast events. He is much better on other surfaces. He ranks top-15 on the tour in Par-3, Par-4, and Par-5 scoring. At these odds, I am still investing (and profiting). This is how you win at golf: identify undervalued golfers and don’t jump off the bandwagon. 

Fitzpatrick is linked with Justin Thomas in Round One head-to-head props. Thomas comes off a tie for 13th place at the PGA Truist Championship last week — but it is a case of Hopium if one is considering him a serious contender this week. The former two-time PGA Champion had not finished better than 13th place in his previous five PGA events. He ranks 92nd in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 103rd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks 131st in Shots-Gained: Putting. Maybe he finds his game this week? We’re better off betting against it and trusting the recent evidence. To close the deal, Thomas ranks 145th this year in Round One Scoring — and Fitzpatrick ranks 16th on the PGA Tour in Round One Scoring. Take Fitzpatrick (7196) versus Thomas (7195) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.