Frank Sawyer: Expert Sports Betting Picks for Sale

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 7/2:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Thursday is with Over the Total in the match between Croatia and Portugal. Croatia (W2-D0-L1) claimed second place in Group L with a 2-1 victory against Ghana on Saturday. The Chequered Ones have only one clean sheet in their last nine matches — and they have surrendered 15 goals over that stretch. Their three World Cup opponents this summer have generated 10 combined Big Chances (a shot with an expected Goal probability of at least 35%) against them. But Croatia has only been blanked in three of their last 19 matches across all competitions. In seven of the Chequered Ones last eight Knockout Stage matches, both teams scored at least one goal. Portugal (W1-D2-L0) comes off 0-0 draw with Colombia on Saturday. Despite both teams blanking, each team generated two Big Changes apiece and combined for 2.63 expected Goals (xG). The Selacao have only gone scoreless in four of their previous 19 matches. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.                   

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports maintains a 10 of 14 (71%) All-Sports run after injuries and red cards ruined their USMNT-Bosnia Over play last night in the World Cup! Frank continues his fifth Men’s World Cup handicapping campaign on a 22 of 36 (61%) World Cup run — and after DELIVERING his 25* World Cup Match of the Month on France two days ago, he furthers his 21 of 30 (70%) World Cup sides mark with his 25* World Cup Round of 32 Match of the Year for Thursday night! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Croatia (225545) plus the goal-line versus Portugal (225546) in the Round of 32 Knockout Stage of the 2026 World Cup. THE SITUATION: Croatia (W2-D0-L1) claimed second place in Group L with their 2-1 victory against Ghana on Saturday. Portugal (W1-D2-L0) settled for second place in Group K after their nil-nil draw with Colombia on Saturday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at BMO Field in Toronto, Canada.

REASONS TO TAKE CROATIA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Portugal scored five goals while generating nine Big Chances (a shot with an expected Goal probability of at least 35%) in their three matches — but five of those goals and seven of those Big Chances came against Uzbekistan, who were the doormats of Group K. The White Wolves were making their World Cup debut this summer — and not only did they go winless, but they only scored twice while conceding 11 goals (at least three in each of their matches). Granted, they got dumped into a tough group with Colombia, DR Congo, and the reigning UEFA Nations League champion Portugal. But these results beg the question: where does one stand on the value of Cristiano Ronaldo? If you listen to the Fox-TV pundits, he remains a superhero at the height of his powers. But find someone who loves you the way Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Landon Donovan love over-the-hill strikers (psychologists call this "projection"). I am of the other opinion. While US Presidents and pop music have changed in the last decade (and sometimes these cycles go full circle), one thing remains the same: Ronaldo is still a flat-track bully in the twilight of his career. My notes for the 2018 World Cup mentioned his skills already regressing. For the 2021 Euro, I jotted down “stat hog.” He was considered a liability on the 2022 World Cup team — and it seemed then that his best role would be coming off the bench to offer a scoring spark. But here we are, four years later, and manager Roberto Martinez is starting him and playing him the entire game. The analytics on his specific performances against DR Congo and Colombia were not good. Yes, he scored twice against Uzbekistan as he managed to keep his name mentioned alongside the prolific scoring numbers that Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe have put up. For the record, Ronaldo had only scored one goal in his previous 11 World Cup or Euro Championship matches before the Uzbekistan match. By the way, there were similar circumstances in their qualifying matches. On paper, they scored 20 goals in those six contests. But take away their 5-0 and 9-1 victories against lowly Armenia — and Portugal scored only six goals and surrendered six goals in their other four matches (against Hungary and the Republic of Ireland, not exactly a Group of Death). Sorry Charlie, but in the year of our lord, 2026, Ronaldo is a net liability. His professional career has been relegated to the Saudi Arabian top flight, the poor man’s MLS (“poor man” is a metaphor for the quality of that league, not at all a reflection on the financial requirements he demanded to add his face to that endeavor). His Selecao teammates appear to be simply over it when on the pitch. There was clear tension between Manchester United captain Bruno Fernandes and Ronaldo in the DR Congo match. And Ronaldo does not play a lick of defense. He is playing in this World Cup to score goals and grab more attention. Yet in his long, storied career, he has never led Portugal to a World Cup final. The crowning national achievement for Ronaldo for his country was winning the 2016 Euro in a very strange campaign where the Selecao won just one time within the 90 minute regulation time but managed to eke out extra-time and shootouts to keep advancing after settling for three draws in the group stage (I still remember watching the finals at Limerick Junction when Eder scored the lone goal in the 110th minute to bypass the impending shootout). It dawned on me that the style Portugal deployed that summer is what they are attempting to replicate now. The Selecao have attempted 37 shots in this World Cup, with 12 of them on target — but take away the Uzbekistan match, and those numbers drop to just 20 shots with a mere three on target in their other two matches. Colombia’s 24 shots were 11 more than what Portugal managed — and Los Cafeteros won the expected Goals (xG) battle by a 1.70-0.93 margin. It’s frustrating because the Selecao’s roster is loaded with high-level talent. They are also fighting for a higher purpose, with every player on the roster wearing special bracelets honoring Diogo Jota, their fallen teammate who tragically died in a car crash a year ago last July. But Martinez is less a tactician and more Ronaldo’s personal caretaker. Croatia is an opponent no national team wants to face. Yes, the Chequered Ones are over the hill. After reaching the finals of the 2018 World Cup, they finished in third place in 2022 in what seemed like the last hurrah for their golden generation. But here they are under manager Zlatko Dalić, leading the way for this national team since 2017. At this point, Croatia is not playing football as much as they are playing chess. They are possession-based and play in a calm and controlled manner. If this were basketball, they would be playing a four-corners offense attempting to slow the game to a crawl. Their goal is to avoid chaos and outsmart their opponents. In that sense, this is a terrible matchup for Portugal, trying to hide Ronaldo on the pitch until his cherry-picking opportunities arise. Luka Modric may be 40-years-old, but the 2018 Ballon d’Or winner’s game has also been predicated on smarts and toughness — and those traits don’t age. In their 4-2 loss against England in their opening group stage match, the game was level entering the second half before the Three Lions simply overwhelmed them with pressure and intensity. Martinez has the pieces to do that — but that would require not nurturing the Ronaldo appeasement plan. 

FINAL TAKE: Having followed Martinez’s coaching career since when he underachieved with Belgium after leading them to the semifinals of the 2018 World Cup, there is nothing to make me think he pivots now to the optimal strategy of using Ronaldo off the bench as a late match scoring threat. Croatia may be past their prime — but they are still the Pros from Dover, and Martinez’s cautious tactics in this tournament play right into their hands. The Chequered Ones have only been blanked three times in their last 19 matches across all competitions. They took France to a shootout after a 2-2 result in the two legs of the 2025 UEFA Nations League quarterfinals — so they have still been going head-to-head against the best national teams in the world recently. These two teams last played in 2024 in a UEFA Nations League match — and that result was a 1-1 draw. I think this match is destined for extra time, but I rarely find value betting draws. Instead, there is more value with Croatia at +0.5 — and with some books moving to +1 today, then that is the slam dunk value play since it pushes a Portugal one-goal win. 25* World Cup Round of 32 Match of the Year with Croatia (225545) plus the goal-line versus Portugal (225546). Best of luck for us — Frank.    

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course designed by D.A. Weibring that consists of 7327 yards. This year’s event is 38 yards longer, given several chances at the Par 4 fourth hole. The golf club removed the Hewitt Tree that was a hazard in the middle of this fairway, given irreversible decay that made it a safety risk. To adjust, two fairway bunkers were added, and a third bunker was repositioned — and the tee box was moved back. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The fairways are 35 yards wide and protected by trees and thick bluegrass rough of up to four inches. The 144 professionals will contend with 76 sand bunkers. Three of the holes feature water hazards. The undulating putting surfaces consist of Bentgrass greens that measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5500 square feet in size. Considered one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour, the average score last year was 69.436 (versus 68.588 in 2024). Five of the last seven winners had a score of 21 or more under par. Rain and storms may be on the horizon for the weekend, with winds expected to pick up.
LONG SHOT: Tom Kim (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Kim (7143) versus Michael Thorbjorsen (7144) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:45 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Tom Kim, who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Kim is playing some of the best golf of his career, as evidenced by his third-place finish at the US Open in his last start two weeks ago. He has three top-15 finishes in his last five PGA Tournaments. His accuracy with his driver has improved lately — and he remains elite on the tour with his irons. He ranks 16th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he ranks fourth in the field in that metric over the last three months. He also ranks 27th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He is also swinging a hot putter by gaining strokes versus the field in three straight tournaments with his blade. He missed the cut in his first professional trip to TPC Deere Run last year — but he is in much better form 12 months later. 

Kim is linked with Michael Thorbjornsen in Round One head-to-head props. This is Thorbjornsen’s first PGA event since finishing in a tie for 54th place three weeks ago at the RBC Canadian Open. He is not in great form right now with two missed cuts in his last four events. He is simply down this season from last year when he led the PGA Tour in Greens In Regulation. He has dropped to 51st on the tour in that metric in 2026. He also ranks just 95th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. His ability to score low at one of the less challenging courses on the tour is his question, given his putting woes. He ranks just 124th in Shots-Gained: Putting this year. He also ranks only 98th in Birdies or Better percentage. He has made the cut in all three of his professional trips to Slovis, headlined by a tie for second place — but his recent form questions whether he can flip the switch this week. Take Kim (7143) versus Thorbjornsen in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course designed by D.A. Weibring that consists of 7327 yards. This year’s event is 38 yards longer, given several chances at the Par 4 fourth hole. The golf club removed the Hewitt Tree that was a hazard in the middle of this fairway, given irreversible decay that made it a safety risk. To adjust, two fairway bunkers were added, and a third bunker was repositioned — and the tee box was moved back. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The fairways are 35 yards wide and protected by trees and thick bluegrass rough of up to four inches. The 144 professionals will contend with 76 sand bunkers. Three of the holes feature water hazards. The undulating putting surfaces consist of Bentgrass greens that measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5500 square feet in size. Considered one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour, the average score last year was 69.436 (versus 68.588 in 2024). Five of the last seven winners had a score of 21 or more under par. Rain and storms may be on the horizon for the weekend, with winds expected to pick up.

BEST BET: Chris Gotterup (+1425 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Gotterup (7141) versus Keegan Bradley (7142) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:45 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA John Deere Classic is on Chris Gotterup, who is listed at +1425 odds at DraftKings. Gotterup is one of four members on the PGA Tour with multiple victories — he opened the season by winning the Sony Open in January before winning the WM Phoenix Open. He also won the PGA Genesis Scottish Open last July. His skill set is a great fit for this course because he is one of the best bombers on the tour.  He ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance. He also ranks 14th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee and 19th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He is very good with his irons, as he ranks 39th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, which is even more impressive given the field this week. He is one of the best players on the tour right now when handling wind — so if storms do arrive this weekend, he is in a better position to roll with the punches. Gotterup ranks 25th on the PGA Tour in Birdies or Better percentage — so he can hang if this event becomes a scoring fest. He earned his first top-five result on the PGA Tour at TPC Deere Run when he finished fourth in this tournament in 2022. He added a tie for 21st place last year. 

Gotterup is linked with Keegan Bradley in Round One head-to-head props. Bradley comes off a tie for 14th place last week at the PGA Travelers Championship — and that was the best finish in his last seven tournaments. He does have five top 25s since the Masters — but he is not putting himself in serious contention. His 12th-place finish at the RBC Heritage the week after the Masters is his best result in 2026. He is not a great fit for this course, as he ranks 87th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Bradley tends to be a better option at more difficult courses. His putting skills are an obstacle to him thriving on easier golf courses. He ranks 94th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. He also ranks 80th in Birdies or Better percentage. He has not played TPC Deere Run since 2016, when he finished in 22nd place, his best result in two professional visits. Bradley also ranks 69th on the tour this year in Round One Scoring — while Gotterup ranks 37th in 2026 in Round One Scoring. Take Gotterup (7141) versus Bradley (7142) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.