Frank Sawyer: Expert Sports Betting Picks for Sale

At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (598) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (557). THE SITUATION: Miami (4-7) has lost three games in a row with their 120-105 upset loss at home to the Pistons on Saturday as a 5-point favorite. Detroit (3-9) had lost five games in a row before the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: Miami has been hit hard by COVID — and they will be without Jimmy Butler and Avery Bradley for this game. But they did get six players back from quarantine on Saturday including Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic. The Heat should get right in this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home. Miami is also 37-14-1 ATS in their last 52 games after a straight-up loss under head coach Erik Spoelstra — and they are 40-17-2 ATS in their last 59 games after a point spread loss. And while the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Miami has seen at least 220 combined points scored in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games at home after playing two straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. The Heat have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Detroit shot 50.5% from the field on Saturday which was their best shooting effort all season. But the Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win. And while the Pistons have covered the point spread in six of their last eight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games on the road after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight contests.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in Miami against the Heat even after Saturday’s upset win. 10* NBA Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Miami Heat (598) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (557). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (563) minus points versus the Brooklyn Nets (564). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (9-4) has won four games in a row with their 112-109 win against Dallas on Friday as a 7.5-point favorite. Brooklyn (8-6) has won three straight games after they defeated Orlando on Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Buck defeated the Mavericks despite allowing them to make 46.4% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. Milwaukee has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss this season. And while the Bucks have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning but failing to cover the point spread in their last two contests. The Bucks have won seven of their last eight games while getting great play from Kris Middleton and the newly acquired Jrue Holiday. They rank second in the NBA in net point differential. They are tops in the league in Offensive Efficiency and 9th in Defensive Efficiency. Take away the 29 shots from downtown they nailed against Miami in their outlier offensive performance and they still would rank fourth in the league in 3-point shooting. Now Milwaukee goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Brooklyn held the Magic to 46.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Getting James Harden in the mix will not help their defensive prowess. Harden scored 42 points while registering a triple-double in his first game in a Nets’ uniform — but I think his integration into this team while sharing the ball with Kevin Durant will be a work in progress. This is a team that ranks 15th in the league in Defensive Efficiency even before Harden’s arrival. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games this season after a point spread victory. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing with one day of rest. And in their last 6 games this season with the total set at 230 or higher, the Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee is 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games in Brooklyn against the Nets. The Bucks should be motivated to take on the challenge of Durant and Harden — and they have better team cohesion right now. 10* NBA Milwaukee-Brooklyn TNT Special with the Milwaukee Bucks (563) minus points versus the Brooklyn Nets (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR MONDAY, 1/18:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut in the NBA this afternoon is with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns and the Memphis Grizzlies. Memphis (6-6) has won four straight games with their 106-104 win against Philadelphia as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. The Grizzlies stay at home where they have played 9 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Memphis has also played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% overall. Phoenix (7-4) has not played since last Monday given quarantine protocols. The Suns have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. These two teams have also played their last 4 encounters Under the Total. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

** Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 10 of 16 (63%) NBA run that has continued their 43 of 68 (63%) NBA longer-term mark! Frank also enjoys a 41 of 51 (80%) mark with his highest-rated 25* plays in All-Sports — and now he furthers his 22 of 29 (76%) NBA 25* mark with his 25* NBA TNT Game of the Month for MLK Day! DO NOT MISS OUT! **

At 5:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (559) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (560). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (7-4) takes the court again for the first time since January 11th when they were upset at Washington by a 128-107 score as a 6-point favorite. Memphis (6-6) comes off a 106-104 win against Philadelphia as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix has not played in the last seven days because of the COVID outbreak in the Wizards’ organization which forced them to quarantine after exposure to their players in that game. This Suns team should be anxious to get the bad taste out of their mouth of what was probably their worst game of the season. They allowed Washington to make 52.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort so far in this campaign. They only made 44.8% of their shots which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last seven games. Yet Phoenix has covered the point spread in 7 straight games after an upset loss on the road where they were favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset loss by at least 20 points as a road favorite. The Suns went from a talented upstart that went 8-0 in the bubble this summer to a legitimate threat in the Western Conference with the veteran Chris Paul guiding the emerging stars in Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, and DeAndre Ayton. Second-year head coach Monty Williams is also getting valuable contributions from his bench from players like Cameron Johnson. Phoenix ranks sixth in the NBA in their net efficiency rating. They have scored at least 105 points in nine straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games on the road after scoring at least 105 points in four straight games. The Suns have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road. Phoenix has also coved the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not playing more than three games in the last ten days. Memphis has won four straight games with their victory against the 76ers. They go Ja Morant in that game with their second-year superstar scoring 17 points with six assists. The Grizzlies did get out-rebounded by 15 rebounds in that game. This team misses Jaren Jackson and Justise Winslow who are both out with injuries — and they will be without Jonas Valuncianas for this game who is out due to COVID quarantining protocols. Ayton may be poised for a big night against what is left of the Memphis frontcourt. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after being outrebounded by at least 15 boards in their last game. Memphis has a great head coach in Taylor Jenkins who gets the most out of his talent. But the problem Jenkins faces is when his group goes against the top rosters in the league where the consistent effort from his players is not enough — and that is made even worse with all the players out for this one. The Grizzlies are playing their fourth game in ten days — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games when playing no more than their fourth game in ten days. Memphis is only 2-5 at home this season with an average losing margin of -5.0 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games. And while the Grizzlies launch 31 shots from 3-point land per game, the Suns have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams who attempt at least 18 shots from 3-point land per game.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix is missing some bench pieces for this one with Dario Saric and Jalen Smith out still because of quarantine protocols — but they have their starting five intact. The Suns have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored. 25* NBA TNT Game of the Month with the Phoenix Suns (559) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR MONDAY, 1/18:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The final play on my cut list for Monday afternoon in All-Sports is with Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United and Arsenal. Arsenal (W7-D3-L8) displayed little energy on Thursday in a 0-0 draw against Crystal Palace. They generated only 0.62 expected goals (xG). Arsenal is averaging just 1.40 xG this season which helps explain why they have scored only 20 goals in their eighteen EPL matches. But that result was the Gunners’ fourth clean sheet in their last five matches. Newcastle (W5-D4-L8) was shutout in their last match last Tuesday in a 1-0 setback at Sheffield United. That was the Magpies' fifth time where they did not score in their last six matches across all competitions. These two teams just played on January 9th in FA Cup action where Arsenal won by a 2-0 score — but it was scoreless after 90 minutes before the Gunners scored their two goals in extra time. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports begins Monday on a 57 of 86 (66%) English Premier League run! Frank is on a 6 of 9 (67%) Soccer sides run — and his 41 of 51 (80%) mark with his highest-rated 25* plays in All-Sports includes a 7 of 10 (78%) EPL highest-rated 25* run! Now this afternoon’s Newcastle-Arsenal goal-line winner on the NBC Sports Network at 3 PM ET is Frank’s 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month! DON’T MISS OUT!

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Arsenal (200194) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200193). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (W7-D3-L8) looks to rebound from a listless 0-0 draw at home against Crystal Palace last Thursday. Newcastle (W5-D4-L8) comes off a 1-0 loss at Sheffield United last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Gunners have been playing better as of late with three straight wins before their draw with the Eagles. Arsenal is unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions with four victories and four clean sheets — and they have a low expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.24 in those five matches. This recent stretch all started at home last month with a huge 3-1 victory over Chelsea in English Premier League action. Manager Mikel Arteta was starting to hear whispers of him being on the hot seat — and he responded by turning to some youngsters to instill some energy and enthusiasm into the starting XI. Kieran Tierney, Emile Smith-Rowe, and Bukayo Saka have all offered breaths of fresh air — although Tierney did not play last week with a calf injury. Frankly, Arsenal was flat and very disappointing in their energy and effort on Thursday. That performance certainly got Arteta’s attention — it needs to be addressed in this contest. The good news is that Tierney’s calf has improved and he should be on the pitch for this game. The last time the Gunners did not win a match was on December 19th when they lost to Everton by a 2-1 score — and it was after that match that Arteta coaxed his best effort of the season from his team in that upset win against Chelsea. This remains a team that has scored eight goals in their last three EPL matches. Newcastle is winless in their last eight matches in all competitions with six losses. In their loss to Sheffield United, they allowed one of the worst attacks in the league to generate 2.13 expected goals (xG). Manager Steve Bruce is firmly on the hot seat — and he may have lost the support of his players. He continues to play five defenders in an uninspired system that is not even generating better defensive play. The Magpies are allowing 1.62 xGA this season which is the sixth-worst in the league. They have allowed more than one goal in three of their last six matches. It is even worse on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to achieve 1.93 xG — and they have surrendered eight goals in their last three road matches in the EPL. They have also allowed multiple goals in three of their last five road contests. Yet playing five defenders has resulted in the Magpies attack being almost non-existent. Over their last five matches, Newcastle is producing only 0.66 non-penalty kick expected goals — and they have not scored a goal from open play in that span. The Magpies have also been shutout in five of their last six matches.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played nine days ago on January 9th in the FA Cup with Arsenal winning by a 2-0 score. The Gunners needed extra time to score those two goals — so they did not walk away from that match brimming with confidence. I am very high on Arteta as a tactician — I expect him to make some adjustments to create earlier scoring chances. If (and when) Arsenal scores earlier in this match, Bruce will have to have his team open up more — and those conditions should lead to the Gunners winning comfortably. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Arsenal (200194) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200193). Best of luck for us — Frank.