Frank Sawyer: Expert Sports Betting Picks for Sale

At 1:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Twins (959) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Guardians (960) listing both starting pitchers Chris Archer and Shane Bieber. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (43-35) has lost two of their last three games after their 7-6 loss to the Guardians yesterday in 10 innings yesterday. Cleveland (38-34) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TWINS PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Minnesota scored three runs in the top of the 10th inning yesterday — but their bullpen blew the save by allowing four runs in the bottom of the 10th inning to take the loss. The Twins have won 16 of their last 21 games after a loss — and they have won 7 of their last 11 games after blowing a save in their last game. Minnesota has still won 6 of their last 8 games on the road against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Archer who has a 2-3 record with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 14 starts this season. The right-hander has been more effective on the road where he has a 2.76 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .213 in seven starts as compared to his 3.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .219 in seven starts at home. He has been outstanding this month with a 2-1 record along with a 1.57 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in five starts. While Archer does not pitch deep into games and usually does not pitch around the batting order more than twice, he will be supported by a Twins bullpen that has a 2.38 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in the last seven days. His teams have won 6 of their last 9 games with him pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range — and they have won 6 of their last 9 games when he is the starting pitcher for a day game. He faces a Cleveland team that ranks 18th in MLB in the weighted Runs Created metric when playing at home against right-handed starting pitchers and 20th in weighted On-Base Percentage when at home against right-handed pitching. In their last seven games, the Guardians are scoring only 2.7 Runs-Per-Game with a .227 Batting Average, .272 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .586. Cleveland has lost 5 of their last 6 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Guardians had lost five straight games before winning two of their last three games in the middle three games of this five-game series. But Cleveland has still lost 5 of their last 7 games at home. They counter with Bieber who has a 3-4 record along with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 14 starts. The right-hander has been most effective on the road where he has a 2.51 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .242 in nine starts — but in his five starts at home, he has a 4.23 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .257. These disparate home/road splits are consistent with last season when Bieber had a 2.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .211 opponent’s batting average in nine starts but a 3.51 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .253 in seven starts at home. He faces a hot-hitting Twins lineup that is scoring 5.3 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .275 Batting Average, .332 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .812 during that span. Minnesota has still beaten the Guardians in 6 of their last 8 meetings.

FINAL TAKE: All of the Twins last five losses have been only one run — and four straight Cleveland victories as well as five of their last six games have been by just one run. 25* MLB American League Central Run-Line of the Month is with the Minnesota Twins (959) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the Cleveland Guardians (960) listing both starting pitchers Chris Archer and Shane Bieber. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities this week in Slovis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. This is a Par 71 event consisting of 7289 yards. The greens are Bentgrass that will register a standard 12 feet on the stimptmeter. With forgiving fairways and some of the least-challenging putting conditions on the tour, this stop is usually one of the lowest-scoring tournaments on the PGA Tour. Last year, the professionals averaged almost 13 Greens-In-Regulation per round. The average score per round was 69.513.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on J.T. Poston who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. Poston is playing some of the best golf of his career right now after a tie for 2nd place last week at the Travelers Championship. He has three top-10 finishes in his last eight tournaments. Over the last three months, he ranks 9th on the tour in Ball-Striking and 5th in Birdies or Better Percentage. He has gained at least +7.9 Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green against the field in three straight events. Last week, he gained +9.1 stroked from the field in Tee-to-Green — and he was 2nd in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Poston is linked with John Huh in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Huh finished in 7th place at this tournament last year — but he has missed the cut three times in his seven trips to the Quad Cities. He comes into this event with three straight top-25s after a tie for 13th place at the Travelers Championship. But Huh can be inconsistent as he missed the cut in the two events before this recent run. He ranks 83rd on the tour this season on Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he is 113th in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take Poston (7020) versus Huh (7019) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us —Frank.

The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities this week in Slovis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. This is a Par 71 event consisting of 7289 yards. The greens are Bentgrass that will register a standard 12 feet on the stimptmeter. With forgiving fairways and some of the least-challenging putting conditions on the tour, this stop is usually one of the lowest-scoring tournaments on the PGA Tour. Last year, the professionals averaged almost 13 Greens-In-Regulation per round. The average score per round was 69.513.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Lucas Glover who is lasted at +4000 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. Glover has made the cut in his last four events including the Travelers Championship last week — and he fits the profile of the veteran golfer who can step up to win this event with most of the top players traveling to Europe for the Scottish Open and then the British Open next month. Glover ranks 9th on the tour in Ball Striking. He also ranks 2nd in the field this week on Proximity from 125 to 150 feet which will play an important role this week on this shorter course. Glover also ranks 9th in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Total when playing on courses in the Midwest since the start of 2020. He won this tournament last year and has a tie for 10th place in 2019. Glover is linked with Dylan Frittelli in Round One head-to-head props. Frittelli won this event in 2019 before missing the cut last year. Since a tie for 8th place at the Valero Open in early April, he has not finished better than a tie for 35th place — and he missed the cut last week at the Travelers Championship. Despite his past championship here, his ball-striking is not in good enough form to post the big number that it will likely take to contend this weekend. Frittelli ranks 168th in Ball Striking. He is 84th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 120th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks 121st this season in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take Glover (7141) versus Frittelli (7142) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities this week in Slovis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. This is a Par 71 event consisting of 7289 yards. The greens are Bentgrass that will register a standard 12 feet on the stimptmeter. With forgiving fairways and some of the least-challenging putting conditions on the tour, this stop is usually one of the lowest-scoring tournaments on the PGA Tour. Last year, the professionals averaged almost 13 Greens-In-Regulation per round. The average score per round was 69.513.

Our Best Bet to win this event is on Denny McCarthy who is listed at +2200 at DraftKings. McCarthy had been playing at an elite level with a tie for fifth place at the Memorial earlier this month before a 7th place finish at the US Open before missing the cut last week at the Travelers Championship. I like backing golfers coming off a missed cut because that usually means they have a chip on their shoulder the next time out while benefiting from getting the weekend off. McCarthy is one of the best putters on the tour — he ranks 5th on the PG Tour for the 2021-22 season in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is 8th in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Putting when working on Bentgrass greens in the last two years. McCarthy can struggle with his iron play which can challenge the magic he can make with his putter — but he has been more consistent with his ball-striking this season. He had made 11 straight cuts in stroke play (outside a missed cut in the two-player team event in New Orleans in the spring) before last week. McCarthy is linked with Charles Howell III for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Howell comes off a tie for 35th place at the Travelers Championship last week — but he is not in great form. He has only finished in the top 15 three times in his last 42 tournaments. He has lost accuracy off the tee — he ranks 77th in Driver Accuracy this season. He is also losing strokes to the competition in the approach — he is 119th this season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Furthermore, Howell’s putting has regressed with him ranking 159th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take McCarthy (7005) versus Howell III (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab it at +1.5 shots if available and not priced higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.