Frank Sawyer: Expert Sports Betting Picks for Sale

At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (524) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Philadelphia 76ers (523). THE SITUATION: Boston (17-6) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last night with their 122-117 loss in Indiana as a 1.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (18-7) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests with their 92-92 win over Denver on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS PLUS THE POINT(S): Boston has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread setback. And while the Celtics had covered the point spread in their previous four games before last night, they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. This is Boston’s third game this season when playing without rest — and they covered those first two second half of back-to-backs. They return home where they are a perfect 10-0 with an average winning margin of +10.2 PPG. The Celtics are making 46.8% of their shots at home which has translated into 114.2 PPG — and they are making 49.5% of their shots over their last five games. Philadelphia has played their last two games at home — and not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after playing their last two games at home but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after winning their last two games at home. Additionally, the 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after winning two games in a row overall. And while this team has been dominant at home with their 13-0 record, now the Sixers go on the road where they are just 5-7 this season while allowing their home hosts to make 47.1% of their shots. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Sixers’ Al Horford is questionable tonight with a hand injury — and this team is not nearly is formidable outside of their starting five. Boston finally got Gordon Hayward back on the court after suffering a broken nose — he joins Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum to form as dominant a foursome as there is in the league. The Celtics will miss Marcus Smart who is out with an eye injury but the supporting cast should step up at home. 10* NBA Philadelphia-Boston TNT Special with the Boston Celtics (524) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Philadelphia 76ers (523). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Take the Dallas Mavericks minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons. Dallas (16-7) saw their five-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 110-106 loss to Sacramento as an 8.5-point favorite. The Mavericks have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of the last 7 games after a straight-up loss. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games as a favorite. Detroit (10-14) has won four of their last five games with their with 105-103 win at New Orleans on Monday as a 1-point favorite. The Pistons are then 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win. Detroit is also just 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog. Lay the points with Dallas. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* NFC East Total of the Year on Monday with the NY Giants-Philadelphia Under to further their RED HOT 15 of 19 (79%) NFL Game of the Year run this season! Frank is now on a 50 of 82 (61%) NFL TOTALS TEAR — and now he furthers his NEAR PERFECT 8 of 9 (89%) NFL Game of the Year/Month Totals run with his 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year for tonight’s NY Jets-Baltimore O/U winner on Fox-TV at 8:20 PM ET! DON’T MISS OUT!

Frank SWEPT THE BOARD on Monday in the NFL with the Giants plus the points and the NY Giants-Philadelphia Under to further his SIZZLING 8 of 12 (67%) NFL run along with his RED HOT 6 of 8 (75%) NFL Prime-Time run! Frank has now GOTTEN OUT HIS BROOM FOURTEEN TIMES in this NFL season for Prime-Time games which makes it THIRTY-FIVE NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS over the last two seasons! Now Frank turns to Thursday Night Football 70 of 115 (61%) NFL Prime-Time run which is RIGHT IN LINE with his consistent longer-term 142 of 228 (62%) NFL Prime-Time mark — and he has tonight’s NY Jets-Baltimore’ ATS winner on Fox-TV at 8:20 PM ET! WATCH & WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (502) minus the points versus the New York Jets (501). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-2) has won nine straight games after their 24-17 win at Buffalo last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite. New York (5-8) has won four of their last five games with their 22-21 win at home against Miami last week as a 5-point favorite.

THE SITUATION: In theory, I don’t love laying all these points in an NFL game. However, in practice, NFL teams laying at least 14 points are 20-13 ATS in these last 33 situations since the start of the 2017-18 season with favorites laying at least two touchdowns this season being 6-3 ATS. This is the first favorite laying at least 14 points since Week 8 when Minnesota was laying around -16.5 points for a Thursday night game against Washington. We took the underdog Skins that night in the Vikings’ 19-9 victory — but I am taking the chalk in this game under these different circumstances. The Jets are a M*A*S*H unit with a whopping fifteen players on Injured Reserve or otherwise out for the rest of the season. Those missing players do not include safety Jamal Adams cornerback Brian Poole, defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, and tack Chuma Edoga who are four more starters declared out or doubtful for this game. This is bad news for a team that is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. The Jets now go back on the road where they are just 1-5 while scoring just 15.5 PPG and averaging a mere 239.7 total YPG. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Jets are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a double-digit underdog. And New York is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December. The Baltimore defense ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 18.2 PPG and 6th in the league by limiting their opponents to only 314.6 total YPG. The Ravens have also held their last three opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 253.7 total YPG. Baltimore’s defense starts with their outstanding secondary that might have become the best unit in the league with the midseason trade of cornerback Marcus Peters. Not only do strong cover skills help the pass rush, but it also gives defensive coordinator Wink Martindale the freedom to take more chances with the blitz. The Ravens lead the NFL by blitzing on 54.5% of the time — and now they face Sam “I see ghosts” Darnold tonight. In that Monday night game against the Patriots on October 21st when Darnold was caught on mic admitting he was seeing “ghosts” in the backfield against the Patriots blitz, he completed just 8 of 16 passes for only 66 yards with no touchdown passes and three interceptions when facing a blitz. For the season, Darnold ranks 30th of 32 quarterbacks with a 48.2 Passer Rating when facing the blitz. Defense is consistent on a week-to-week basis — and so are strong rushing attacks which is what this Baltimore team possesses behind Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram as they lead the NFL by averaging 200.8 rushing YPG. Perhaps this is why the Ravens have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Baltimore returns home where they are 5-1 this season with an average winning margin of +8.5 PPG. This team is also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games under head coach John Harbaugh when playing on a Thursday night.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least seven games in a row. And while Baltimore has covered the point spread in six of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. 10* NFL NY Jets-Baltimore Fox-TV Special with the Baltimore Ravens (502) minus the points versus the New York Jets (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Baltimore Ravens (302). THE SITUATION: New York (5-8) has won four of their last five games with their 22-21 win at home against Miami last week as a 5-point favorite. Baltimore (11-2) has won nine straight games after their 24-17 win at Buffalo last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win on the road. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Baltimore offense leads the NFL by scoring 33.1 PPG — but they have only averaged 22 PPG in their last two contests while generating just 270.4 total YPG. The Ravens have played two outstanding defenses in their last two games against San Francisco and then the Bills last week — but those defenses also provided a blueprint as to how to slow down Lamar Jackson and this unique Baltimore offense. For starters, defenses are having their athletic defensive ends play “cat-and-mouse” with Jackson to not overcommit in their actions to contain the speedy QB in the pocket and force him to pass or run for a shorter gain. Second, pass coverages deploying quarter-quarter-half schemes which are pushing Jackson’s passing options to one side of the field. Lastly, Buffalo began to commit earlier to shifting a few defenders to the other side of the field in response to the Baltimore Escort Motion where a tight end (or wide receiver) goes in motion to offer a run-blocker on the other side of the field. The problem with that Bills’ tactic of shifting defenders before the man-in-motion passes the center will be that the Ravens will eventually reverse that motion and catch defenders moving too quickly to the wrong side. However, I don’t think Baltimore offensive coordinator Greg Roman wastes that wrinkle on the Jets tonight — so the Jets should have some success copy-catting this and these other new defensive strategies. As it is, New York has an outstanding run defense that is 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 78.8 rushing YPG — and they lead the league by holding opposing rushers to use 3.03 Yards-Per-Carry. The Ravens return home where they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. While Jackson gets most of the attention, the Baltimore defense ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 18.2 PPG and 6th in the league by limiting their opponents to only 314.6 total YPG. The Ravens have also held their last three opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 253.7 total YPG. The Bills passed for only 105 yards against them last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Baltimore’s defense starts with their outstanding secondary that might have become the best unit in the league with the midseason trade of cornerback Marcus Peters. Not only do strong cover skills help the pass rush, but it also gives defensive coordinator Wink Martindale the freedom to take more chances with the blitz. The Ravens lead the NFL by blitzing on 54.5% of the time — and now they face Sam “I see ghosts” Darnold tonight. In that Monday night game against the Patriots on October 21st when Darnold was caught on mic admitting he was seeing “ghosts” in the backfield against the Patriots blitz, he completed just 8 of 16 passes for only 66 yards with no touchdown passes and three interceptions when facing a blitz. For the season, Darnold ranks 30th of 32 quarterbacks with a 48.2 Passer Rating when facing the blitz. Darnold did complete 20 of 36 passes last week against the Dolphins for 270 yards — but the Jets have played 4 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now New York goes on the road where they are scoring just 15.5 PPG along with averaging just 239.7 total YPG. The Jets have played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. New York’s defense does travel as they are holding their home hosts to just 308.8 total YPG. And in their last three games, the Jets are allowing only 15.3 PPG and just 282.2 total YPG. Additionally, New York has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t see the Jets scoring much tonight. Even if the Ravens put up a big number against this good New York defense, head coach John Harbaugh will likely call off the proverbial dogs early in this one with it being played on a short week. Jackson is not 100% with sore quads and getting him to the bench better takes advantage of the extra time off he will have before his next game. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Baltimore Ravens (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.