Frank Sawyer: Expert Sports Betting Picks for Sale

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 9/26:

My “Cutting Room Floor” are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play on my cut list today was Florida State-Miami (FL) Over the Total. Florida State (0-1) looks to rebound from a 16-13 upset loss at Georgia Tech back on September 12th. The Seminoles have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after suffering an upset loss. Florida State has also seen the Over go 19-6-2 in their last 27 road games as an underdog. Miami (2-0) looks to build off their 47-34 win at Louisville last Saturday. The Hurricanes have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Miami has also played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is ON FIRE after SWEEPING their two plays on Friday for a NEAR PERFECT 6-1-1 (86%) All-Sports mark over the last three days along with a SIZZLING 46 of 73 (63%) All-Sports run over the last twenty-one days! Frank CA$HED his CFB play last night with Middle Tennessee’s point spread cover against UTSA to continue his  RED HOT 8 of 11 (73%) CFB run — and now he UNLEASHES his 25* College Football Game of the Month! DON’T MISS IT!

Frank DELIVERED his 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Year last night on the Boston Celtics to continue his 27 of 42 (64%) NBA playoff run this postseason! Frank now owns a SCORCHING 17 of 21 (81%) NBA Game of the Year mark — and now he furthers his 14 of 19 (74%) NBA TOTALS TEAR with his 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year for tonight’s Denver-LA Lakers’ O/U winner on TNT at 9 PM ET! DO NOT DARE MISS OUT!

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (711) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (712) in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Denver (55-26) once again finds themselves on the brink of elimination after losing to the Lakers on Thursday by a 114-108 score as a 6-point favorite. Los Angeles (63-22) now has a 3-1 lead in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS PLUS THE POINTS: Finally, Denver has found their comfort zone again trailing by a 3-1 deficit and staring straight into the abyss. The Nuggets rallied from a 3-1 deficit to defeat both the Utah Jazz and the Los Angeles Clippers so there will not be any lack of resolve or confidence from this team tonight. Getting some help from the referees will help after the Lakers got to the charity stripe 35 times on Thursday. Los Angeles 28 made free throws were five more than the total attempts that Denver got in that game — and while they made 20 of their free-throw opportunities, losing those eight points was the difference in the game. The Nuggets have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. Denver has also covered the point spread in 4 straight Game 5s in the playoffs. Additionally, the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 playoff games when trailing in the series — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games when facing elimination. Los Angeles lost Game Three of this series in large part because they got complacent with their two-game lead — that is a factor again tonight. The last two games in this series have finished Over the Total — and the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after playing their last two games Over the Total. Furthermore, LA has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games away from home when playing their third game in five days — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games when playing their fourth game in seven days. And while the Lakers have allowed the Nuggets to make at least 47.3% of their shots in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 32 games when playing with revenge. Anthony Davis injured his ankle on Thursday as well —  and it may slow him down 48 hours later due to the swelling. 10* NBA Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Denver Nuggets (711) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (711) and the Los Angeles Lakers (712) in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (63-22) took a 3-1 lead in this series on Thursday with their 114-108 victory over the Nuggets as a 6-point favorite. Denver (55-36) once again finds themselves on the brink of elimination down 3-1 in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The referees responded from the criticism from LeBron James about not getting enough whistles as the Lakers got to the charity stripe 35 times from which they converted on 28 of those attempts. Look for the fewer fouls to be called in tonight’s game. The Lakers have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win by 6 points or less. Denver made 50.6% of their shots in Game Four which was the third straight game where the Lakers allowed them to make at least 47.3% of their shots from the field. Los Angeles has then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. The Lakers have scored at least 105 points in eight straight games — but that is a strong indicator that this game will finish below the number. LA has played 48 of their last 76 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games — and they have played 38 of their last 60 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in four straight games. And in their last 47 games after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games, they have then played 30 of these games Under the Total. And while these two teams have seen 220 and 222 combined points scored in the last two games, the Lakers have then played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. Denver has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 7-2-2 in their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest. The Nuggets are certainly familiar with this situation of being on the brink of elimination. They must crave danger. The urgency of avoiding the abyss does motivate better efforts on the defensive end of the court for Denver. In Game Six and Seven of their series with Utah, the Nuggets held the Jazz to just 45.3% and 38.0% shooting which resulted in only 107 and 78 points in the final two games of that series. Then in Game Five, Six, and Seven in their series with the Clippers, Denver clamped down to hold Kawhi Leonard and company to 42%, 41%, and 37.8% shooting which translated into 105, 98, and 89 points. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends are complemented by an empirical situational angle that has been 61% effective over the last five seasons. The Lakers have not covered the point spread in the last two games in this series — and in games involving two teams with a winning percentage in the 60 to 75% range, when one team has not covered the point spread in two straight games, these games have then finished Under the Total in 116 of these last 189 situations where these conditions applied. While Davis is one of the best defenders in the league, if he is not 100% (or does not play), that helps our Under play since he is so important to the Lakers offense — he is averaging 29 PPG in the postseason. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (711) and the Los Angeles Lakers (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (395) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (396). THE SITUATION: Florida State (0-1) takes the field again after suffering a 16-13 upset loss at Georgia Tech two weeks ago on September 12th as a 13-point favorite. Miami (2-0) is unbeaten so far this season after they defeated Louisville on the road by a 47-34 score as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES PLUS THE POINTS: Things started well in the first game under first-year head coach Mike Norvell. Junior quarterback James Blackman led the offense to 10 points in their first two possessions — but then things went off the rails. Blackman turned the ball over twice on fumbles while throwing an interception and two others drives were stopped by failed 4th down conversions. The Seminoles generated 438 yards of offense but scored only three more points the rest of the way to suffer the upset despite outgaining the Yellow Jackets by +221 net yards. Florida State should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after suffering an upset loss to an ACC rival — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after a loss by a touchdown or less against a conference foe. The Seminoles have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a game where neither team scored more than 17 points. Florida State will be a bit healthier for this game with FAU transfer Meiko Dotson and Hamsar Nasirildeen bolstering their defensive backfield after missing the Georgia Tech game. The team will also be inspired to play for Norvell who is not making the trip to Miami given quarantine protocols after he tested positive for COVID-19. I do think think his absence will negatively impact the Seminoles. He was able to work with the team remotely to help establish game plans and purpose for this showdown. While Norvell always has called the offensive plays going back to his four-year tenure as the head coach at Memphis, offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham who was his OC and quarterbacks coach for two seasons at Memphis will take on those responsibilities. Dillingham was the offensive coordinator for Auburn last season. Tight ends coach Chris Thomsen will handle the head coaching responsibilities with his head coaching experience at Abilene Christian from 2005 to 2011. Miami may be due for an emotional letdown after their big won on national television last week against the Cardinals. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win over a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Hurricanes defeated Louisville despite getting outgained by -31 net yards. Second-year head coach Manny Diaz has to be happy with his new-look offense behind transfer QB D’Eriq King as they generated 485 total yards last week — but Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. And while the Hurricanes also gained 495 yards against UAB in their opening game, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight games. But the defense is an issue despite their 18 tackles-for-less that they have generated this season. Louisville torched them for 516 yards last week but it was the three takeaways and their +3 net turnover margin that made the winning difference in that game. Yet the Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing a turnover in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has not been a reliable favorite as of late as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. Florida State has lost the last three meetings between these two teams after getting upset last year in Tallahassee by a 27-10 score as a 3-point underdog. Look for a close game between these in-state rivals. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Florida State Seminoles (395) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (396). Best of luck for us — Frank.