Frank Sawyer: Expert Sports Betting Picks for Sale

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR FRIDAY, 1/16:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Friday is with the Sacramento Kings minus the points versus the Washington Wizards. Sacramento (11-30) has won three games in a row after their 112-101 upset win at home against New York as a 10.5-point underdog on Wednesday. The Kings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home after an upset victory. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. Washington (10-29) has lost four games in a row after their 119-105 loss in Los Angeles against the Clippers as an 11.5-point underdog on Wednesday. The Wizards have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after losing two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games on the road. Take Sacramento minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports improved their 15 of 23 (65%) NBA run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after CA$HING with Portland last night to fuel their 29 of 45 (64%) NBA featured plays winning streak! Now Frank furthers his 22 of 35 (63%) NBA Game of the Month/Year mark with his 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month for Friday night! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (529) and the Sacramento Kings (530). THE SITUATION: Washington (10-29) has lost four games in a row after their 119-105 loss in Los Angeles against the Clippers as an 11.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Sacramento (11-30) has won three games in a row after their 121-101 upset victory at home against New York as a 10.5-point underdog on Wednesday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wizards are really limited regarding scoring options after trading away C.J. McCollum last week in the Trae Young deal with Atlanta. McCollum was scoring 18.8 Points-Per-Game for Washington and nailing 39.8% of his shots from behind the arc. In the four games without him since that trade, they are only scoring 101.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions, by far the last in the league over that stretch. They have not scored more than 110 points in those four contests. As it is, the Wizards rank 28th in the NBA with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 109.4. Young remains out — and both Khris Middleton and Bilal Coulibaly are both out for tonight’s game with injuries. Washington has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams from the Western Conference. Additionally, while the Kings are allowing their opponents to make 46.3% of their shots this season, the Wizards have played 10 of their last 13 road games against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 46% or higher. In their last seven contests, they are scoring only 109.9 Points-Per-Game, which is -2.7 PPG below their season average. On the other hand, the 120.3 PPG they are giving up in their last seven contests is -3.0 PPG below their defensive season average. Sacramento is suddenly playing better defense in their last three contests after they held the Knicks to 39.0% and just a 19.5% clip from behind the arc. After giving up 137 points to Golden State, they have only given up 112, 98, and 91 points in their last three games — and none of those three opponents made more than 42.9% of their shots. They have also not allowed those three opponents make more than 23.3% of their 3-point shots. The Kings have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset victory. It may not be a coincidence that the improved play on defense coincided with Dennis Schroder serving the three-game suspension he was issued. He is eligible to return to the court tonight — but Malik Monk has played well in his absence and may seize some of his playing time since he is on the trading block. Domantas Sabonis also returns from injury after missing the last 27 games. Sacramento is not a good scoring team, with roster chemistry being an issue in finding a rhythm on offense. They rank second-to-last in the NBA with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 109.1. The eight games they have played this season in which they did not even score 1.0 Points-Per-Possession is the most in the league. Before their current winning streak, they had not scored more than 106 points in six straight games — and they failed to score more than 98 points in three of those contests. The Kings have played 13 of their last 21 games at home Under the Total. They have also played 18 of their last 29 games Under the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher, including 9 of those 13 games played at home. And while the Wizards surrender 123.3 PPG, Sacramento has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who given up 116 or more PPG, including five of those seven games played at home. In their last seven games, the Kings are scoring only 106.9 PPG which is -3.3 PPG below their season average. But they are also holding those seven opponents in the last two weeks to 113.1 PPG which is -7.6 PPG below their season average. The difference has been head coach Doug Christie slowing down his team's pace of play. For the season, they rank 17th in the NBA with 100.37 adjusted possessions per game -- but they dropped to 24th in their last seven games with 96.64 adjusted possessions per game. It has been more dramatic during their three-game winning streak as they have only averaged 93.83 adjusted possessions per game, which is the second-fewest in the NBA during that span.

FINAL TAKE: The Kings have played 5 straight Unders at home against teams with a losing record — and Washington has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record, including six of those eight games played on the road. Either of these teams is very capable of putting up a stinker on offense where they failed to reach 100 points — and 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams finished Under the Total. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Wizards (529) and the Sacramento Kings (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.