Frank Sawyer: Expert Sports Betting Picks for Sale

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Toronto Blue Jays (919) versus the Athletics (920) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and Jeffrey Springs. THE SITUATION: Toronto (55-40) had won 11 of their last 12 games before last night’s 4-3 loss on the road last night. The Athletics (39-58) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE JAYS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Toronto should bounce back this afternoon as they have won 5 straight games after losing their last game — and they have won 7 of their last 11 games after a loss by just one run. They have won 16 of their last 22 games when priced as a money-line favorite in the -125 to -175 price range including four of those five games played on the road. They have also won 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. Berrios gets the ball this afternoon looking to build on a 5-3 record along with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 19 starts. He has been more effective on the road this season where he sports a 2.85 ERA along with a 1.14 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .222 in nine starts as opposed to his 4.14 ERA along with a 1.28 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .245 in ten starts at home. He should have success against this Athletics team that ranks 14th and 21st in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank 16th and 19th in those metrics since June 1st. The Athletics have lost 7 of their last 8 games after winning their last contest. They have lost 31 of their 50 games at home this season — and they have lost 20 of their last 33 home games when listed as a money-line underdog. They have also lost 38 of their last 60 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Springs who has a 7-6 record this season with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 19 appearances which all but two were starts. The deeper sabermetrics are not encouraging. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.73 and 4.50 moving forward. He has also struggled at home in the minor league ballpark in Sacramento this season where he has a 4.30 ERA along with a 1.26 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .235 in eight games (seven starts) as opposed to his 3.61 ERA along with a 1.20 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average .222 in his eleven games (ten starts) on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Blue Jays rank sixth and eighth in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created against left-handed starting pitchers. They have also won 14 of their last 23 games against left-handed starting pitchers. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the Toronto Blue Jays (919) versus the Athletics (920) listing both starting pitchers Jose Berrios and Jeffery Springs. Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 7/13:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday is with the Paris Saint-Germain/Chelsea Over in the finals of the FIFA Club World Cup. Paris Saint-Germain (W5-D0-L1) reached the finals of this tournament with a 4-0 victory against Real Madrid on Wednesday. Les Bleus have scored in their six contests in this event. But while they have only conceded one goal in those matches, their expected Goals Allowed (xGA) climbs to 4.50. To compound the challenge, manager Luis Enrique will be missing two of his typical back line starters with both Lucas Hernandes and Willian Pacho suspended for this match. Chelsea (W5-D0-L1) advanced to this championship match on Tuesday in a 2-0 victory against Fluminense in the semifinals of this tournament. The Blues have scored 14 goals in their six matches. But they have also conceded five goals — and their xGA rises to 5.89. Chelsea has scored in all six of their matches — and they have scored at least two goals in five of those contest. PSG got blanked in one of their matches — but they scored at least two goals in their other five matches. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 16 of 25 (64%) Soccer Game of the Year/Month run after DELIVERING their 25* FIFA Club World Cup Total of the Year on Wednesday with the Real Madrid-PSG over! Frank is on an 18 of 28 (64%) Soccer run — and he furthers his 12 of 19 (63%) Soccer sides streak with his 25* FIFA World Cup Match of the Year with the PSG-Chelsea goal-line side winner on TBS at 3:00 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Paris Saint-Germain (238057) minus the goal-line versus Chelsea (238058) in the finals of the FIFA Club World Cup. THE SITUATION: Paris Saint-Germain (W5-D0-L1) advanced to the finals of this tournament with a 4-0 victory against Real Madrid on Wednesday. Chelsea (W5-D0-L1) reached the championship event the day before with a 2-0 victory against Fluminense on Tuesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

REASONS TO TAKE PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: PSG has now won 10 of their last 11 matches across all competitions after a dominant four-goal victory against one of the best professional teams in the world — and Real Madrid was starting Kylian Mbappe in that match after using him off the bench earlier in this event easing him back from injury. The blowout once again allowed manager Luis Enrique to rest some of his key players in the second half to help manage their fitness for this contest. Ballon d’Or contender Ousmane Dembele made his first start in this tournament and scored in the ninth minute to give Les Parisiens a 2-0 goal in a lightning-fast start before going off in the 59th minute in the second. Dembele has been nursing an injury as well — but PSG takes their game to another level when he is on the pitch. I was cautious in getting too financially involved early in this event because I was unsure about how motivated some clubs would be — especially the European teams technically in their offseason. But now that the championship is on the line, I expect the club that recently crushed Inter Milan by a 5-0 score to win the UEFA Champions League to display their A-Game as they did against Inter Miami last week when they played as strong of a first half as a team can play. Les Bleus’ lone loss in their last nine matches was their second group stage match against Botafogo by a 1-0 score despite holding them to just 0.28 expected Goals (xG). They only had 1.01 xG in that match playing without Dembele — but they have generated at least 1.98 xG in each of their other five matches. With five clean sheets, PSG has only surrendered one goal in their six matches which is the lowest in this tournament. They led the group stage with a possession rate of 73.4%, 11.3 passes per possession, 104.3 progressive passes gained overall, and just 6.9 passes allowed per defensive action. The biggest development this season has been the emergence of striker Dembele who has shined in the role of replacing Kylian Mbappe who signed with Real Madrid last summer. His improved finishing skills make him one of the best players in the world — and he is on the shortlist to win the Ballon d’Or awarded to the player who enjoyed the best season in all of soccer. The roster was talented and balanced — and keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma and right-back Achraf Hakimi may very well be the best players in the world at their position. Adding Khuicha Kuaratskhelia in the January transfer from Napoli was a shot in the arm for the scoring attack. Overall, the unity and cohesion of this team are better than the ones they had when Mbappe was the clear superstar and Talisman. The squad also had depth. Their overall numbers entering the championship match are dominant. Les Bleus have scored 16 goals — and they enjoy a +9.02 expected Goal net differential. And they have done this against strong competition which includes Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals, Lionel Messi with Inter Miami in the Round of 16, Atletico Madrid in the group stage, and Real Madrid earlier this week — and all four of those matches were clean sheets! Chelsea’s road has been much easier. They have played three of the four Brazilian teams — and it was Flamengo who handed them their loss in a 3-1 setback. Their most impressive victory was probably their 2-1 triumph against Palmeiras in the quarterfinals. They handled Fluminense in the semifinals despite only generating one Big Chance (with an expected goal projection of 0.35 or higher xG) while surrendering one Big Chance. The Flu were a great story for this event — but the thing about Fluminense is that finished just four points above relegation in the Brazilian top flight and they entered this event in sixth place in the current Campeonato Brasileiro. This Rio-based team operates with about 10% of the budget of big European clubs like Chelsea. The best European team the Blues beat in this tournament was Benfica in the Round of 16 — but that Portugal side are classic flat-track bullies who beat the teams who they are supposed to beat and then lose top-level sides. After their extra-time loss to Chelsea in this event on June 28th (a 4-1 loss that looks worse than how it played out since the 1-1 deadlock got out of hand when they went down a man due to a red card in the additional 30 minute period), Benfica is just W2-W2-L7 in their last 11 matches against teams ranked in the top 20 using the Opta metrics — and one of those victories was against a Bayern Munich side resting their starters. So the Blues’ path has been pretty easy — and yet they are just +9 in goal differential with 14 goals and five goals conceded. The xG battle does not help their cause as they have generated only 10.39 xG while allowing 5.89 xG. The recently signed striker Joao Pedro scored both goals against Fluminense — but the former Brighton forward may have had extra motivation playing against his boyhood team. Chelsea only finished in fourth place in the English Premier League this season. They did win a European title with their Conference League triumph in May — but that is a third-tier event for sides who fail to even make the Europa League. Cole Palmer has been a slump for almost the entire calendar year — he is a player who looks desperate to get about three weeks off before the EPL starts up again in a month. Second-year manager Enzo Maresca has this team playing better than a dreadful midseason slump — but he is still experimenting to find the preferred starting XI. Against their toughest opponents, the Blues allowed too many high-quality scoring opportunities which makes this showdown with PSG frightening. Chelsea would have been underdogs and likely lost to both Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, Les Bleus’ last two opponents.  

FINAL TAKE: Thoroughly dominating Inter Milan is a testament to just how much PSG improved during what looked like a lost season late in the fall. The Nerazzurri have proven themselves to be one of the best clubs in Europe after reaching the UEFA Champions League final two years ago in a loss to Manchester City. They outlasted an excellent Barcelona squad in the semifinals by an aggregate 7-6 score after surviving what might have been the match of the year in the second leg in a 4-3 victory in extra time. PSG won the expected goals battle against Inter Milan by a 3.51-0.50 margin. Les Parisiens concluded their season with five clean sheets in their final nine matches in the UEFA Champions League. They also pulled off the rare treble by winning the Champions League, the Ligue 1 title, and the Coupe de France after a 3-0 victory against Reims on May 24th. They are in sight of adding a fourth major title in what has become a magical season. 25* FIFA Club World Cup Match of the Year with Paris Saint-Germain (238057) minus the goal-line versus Chelsea (238058). Best of luck for us — Frank.