Frank Sawyer: Expert Sports Betting Picks for Sale

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR MONDAY, 9/20:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Monday night is on the Houston Astros with the money-line versus the Los Angeles Angels listing both starting pitchers Framber Valdez and Jaime Barria. Houston (88-61) has won four of their last five games after their 7-6 win against Arizona yesterday. The Astros have won 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. Houston has also won 4 of their last 5 games on the road when favored. Los Angeles (72-77) has lost three in a row after their 3-2 loss to Oakland yesterday. The Angels stay at home where they have lost 5 straight. Los Angeles has also lost 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Take Houston with the money-line listing Valdez and Barria. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports SWEPT THE BOARD in the NFL yesterday with a 3-0 mark — headlined by DELIVERING their 25* AFC Total of the Month with the Kansas City-Baltimore Over to continue a 9 of 11 (82%) All-Sports run and a 35 of 54 (65%) NFL run! Frank ALSO CA$HED his 25* AFC East Total of the Month with the New England-NY Jets Under yesterday to further his 21 of 31 (68%) NFL run with his highest-rated 25* plays — and now he UNLEASHES his 25* NFC North Total of the Month for the Detroit-Green Bay O/U winner on ESPN at 8:15 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank GOT HIS BROOM OUT AGAIN last night (after using it for MNF last week) — CA$HING WINNING TICKETS on Baltimore and the Chiefs-Ravens Over for NFL Sunday Night Football — to improve his 49 of 79 (62%) All-Sports mark since August 1st! After his 7-0 FOOTBALL WEEKEND, Frank furthers his 30 of 46 (64%) NFL sides run with tonight’s Detroit-Green Bay ATS winner on ESPN at 8:15 PM ET! CA$H-IN Frank’s Monday Night Discounted Deal — IT’S A STEAL!

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (297) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (298). THE SITUATION: Detroit (0-1) enters this game coming off a 41-33 loss to San Francisco as a 9.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 38-3 upset loss against New Orleans in Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: The Packers were complacent traveling to Jacksonville to play a Saints team learning to live life without Drew Brees. And when teams get close to winning a championship, they can get lulled into thinking the first game of the new season is the continuation of the previous season — so they can just flip the switch. Green Bay has lost in the NFC Championship Game two years in a row. After a tumultuous offseason where Aaron Rodgers threatened retirement, the culture inside the room is not very good for this team. But this team was still in first place after Week One with all four of the NFC North teams losing. Now returning home to host Detroit, I do not see the team suddenly embracing a sense of urgency. I will not be surprised if they remain somewhat complacent tonight. As it is, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Despite winning 13 games in the regular season last year, they only outgained their opponents by +55.0 net Yards-Per-Game — and that is not the formula to cover a point spread this big. A strength of this team has been their offensive line — but they are now without two All-Pros from last year with left tackle Davis Bakhtiari on IR and center Corey Linsley gone in free agency. But the defense of the Packers is perhaps the bigger issue. After nose tackle Kenny Clark and cornerback Jaire Alexander, the talent level of this group assembled by general manager Brian Gutekunst is questionable — and they are dealing with injuries. Linebacker Za’Darius Smith is on Injured Reserve and depth safety Vernon Scott is out with a hamstring. Additionally, starting safety Darnell Savage is questionable with a shoulder leaving the Pack thin at the position. LaFleur hired Joe Barry, the former defensive coordinator of the winless Lions team under Rod Marinelli as his defensive coordinator. At least Marinelli had the excuse of Barry being his son-in-law. Barry has never coached a defense that finished better than 27th in total defense in his time with Detroit and later with Washington. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. It was encouraging for the Lions not ever giving up as they scored 33 points and gained 430 yards against the stout San Francisco defense. Quarterback Jared Goff was effective even without being scripted to death by boy-genius Sean McVay. Goff completed 38 of 57 passes for 338 yards and three touchdowns operating the Anthony Lynn-coached offense. Wide receiver Tyrell Williams is in the concussion protocol and out for this game — but his presence on the field was never going to transform this Lions’ offense. Detroit is going to run the football and pass the ball to tight end T.J. Hockenson before looking for open wide receivers — and a majority of their points last week was after the former Raiders’ wide receiver left the game. The Lions have an underrated offensive line — and rookie Penei Sewell thrived at left tackle replacing the injured Taylor Decker. After struggling in the preseason in making the move to right tackle, Sewell eased back into the left tackle slot and handled Nick Bosa. D’Andre Swift is expected to play tonight at running back joining a dynamic duo with Jamaal Williams.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in September — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the NFC. Detroit is undervalued right now — while this is not a playoff team, this organization is so much better off simply by getting rid of Patricia and Quinn. The players hated them both, and that impacted how hard they would play. This group is playing hard for Campbell, who they think is one of them. Addition by subtraction. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Detroit Lions (297) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (298). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (297) and the Green Bay Packers (298). THE SITUATION: Detroit (0-1) enters this game coming off a 41-33 loss to San Francisco as a 9.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 38-3 upset loss against New Orleans in Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers were out-of-synch last week against the Saints. New Orleans took them out of their game in the first half of that game by running the ball and controlling the time of possession. Green Bay was only on offense for 25:24 minutes in that game. Back at home in Lambeau Field on national television, the Packers should start fast and remain furious all night. The Packers have played 45 of their last 70 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 6 points in their last contest. And while Green Bay managed only 3 points in the first half last week, they have then played a decisive 43 of their last 60 games Over the Total after not scoring more than a field goal in their last game. But the defense of the Packers is an issue. After nose tackle Kenny Clark and cornerback Jaire Alexander, the talent level of this group assembled by general manager Brian Gutekunst is questionable — and they are dealing with injuries. Linebacker Za’Darius Smith is on Injured Reserve and depth safety Vernon Scott is out with a hamstring. Additionally, starting safety Darnell Savage is questionable with a shoulder leaving the Pack thin at the position. LaFleur hired Joe Barry, the former defensive coordinator of the winless Lions team under Rod Marinelli as his defensive coordinator. At least Marinelli had the excuse of Barry being his son-in-law. Barry has never coached a defense that finished better than 27th in total defense in his time with Detroit and later with Washington. Green Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points. Additionally, the Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 35 of their last 52 games Over the Total in September. Detroit has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in September after last week’s game that saw 74 combined points scored. The Lions have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Detroit was last in the NFL last season by allowing 32.4 PPG and 419.8 total YPG in the last year under defensive wunderkind Matt Patricia. He inherited a unit that allowed 23.5 PPG. It will take time for the stink of Patricia and general manager Bob Quinn to leave this organization. One of Quinn’s mistakes was drafting Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah when Justin Herbert was available in the 2020 draft. Okudah is now out the season after an Achilles tear last week — and while he has underperformed his top-three draft pick status, it is still a significant loss in the secondary. The 49ers gained 442 yards against them. But what was encouraging was the Lions not giving up as they scored 33 points and gained 430 yards against the stout San Francisco defense. Quarterback Jared Goff was effective even without being scripted to death by boy-genius Sean McVay. Goff completed 38 of 57 passes for 338 yards and three touchdowns operating the Anthony Lynn-coached offense. Wide receiver Tyrell Williams is in the concussion protocol and out for this game — but his presence on the field was never going to transform this Lions’ offense. Detroit is going to run the football and pass the ball to tight end T.J. Hockenson before looking for open wide receivers — and a majority of their points last week was after the former Raiders’ wide receiver left the game. The Lions have an underrated offensive line — and rookie Penei Sewell thrived at left tackle replacing the injured Taylor Decker. After struggling in the preseason making the move to right tackle, Sewell eased back into the left tackle slots and handled Nick Bosa. D’Andre Swift is expected to play tonight at running back joining a dynamic duo with Jamaal Williams. Detroit has played 4 straight Overs after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against NFC North opponents — and the Packer have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against divisional foes. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (297) and the Green Bay Packers (298). Best of luck for us — Frank.