Frank Sawyer: Expert Sports Betting Picks for Sale

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 12/4:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Thursday is with the New Orleans Pelicans plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves. New Orleans (3-19) has lost four games in a row after their 149-142 loss at home against Minnesota as a 12.5-point underdog on Tuesday. The Pelicans have covered the point spread in 7 of their 10 games since James Borrego took over as their head coach early in the season. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities for revenge. Minnesota (13-8) has won three games in a row — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 38 games against teams not winning more than 25% of their games. The Timberwolves have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when playing 12.5 or more points as the favorite. Take New Orleans plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports remains on a 24 of 40 (60%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after losing their NBA play on the Detroit-Milwaukee Over last night! Frank is on an 18 of 30 (60%) NFL run with featured plays — and now he furthers his 13 of 18 (72%) NFL TOTALS TEAR with tonight’s Dallas-Detroit O/U winner on Amazon Prime at 8:15 PM ET for his 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year! DO NOT MISS OUT!

Frank, featured here at Sportscapping.com since 2016, is on 13 of 22 (59%) and 261 of 449 (58%) NFL Prime-Time runs! Frank has NINE NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS this season and 29 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the start of the 2024 season — and his Hollywood Sports has 51 PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the 2023 season and 71 NFL PRIME-TIME SWEEPS since the ’22 season! Now Frank furthers his 37 of 63 (59%) NFL sides run with featured plays with tonight’s Dallas-Detroit ATS winner on Amazon Prime at 8:15 PM ET! CA$H-IN Frank’s Thursday Night Discounted Deal — IT’S A STEAL!

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (102) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). THE SITUATION: Detroit (7-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-24 upset loss at home against Green Bay as a 3-point favorite on Thursday. Dallas (6-5-1) has won three games in a row after their 31-28 upset victory at home as a 3.5-point underdog last Thursday.  

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: Detroit is really banged up on both sides of the football — but they still have quarterback Jared Goff, running back Jahmyr Gibbs, and pass rush extraordinaire Aiden Hutchinson. The Lions are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after playing on Thanksgiving. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 14 games after losing their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their 19 games after surrendering 30 or more points since Dan Campbell took over as their head coach. Detroit failed to convert on their two fourth down attempts against the Packers last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing a game where they attempted to convert on at least one fourth down but failed to deliver even once. The Lions have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games played at home. Dallas is not at full strength with left tackle Tyler Guyton out with an ankle injury. The Cowboys are averaging 355.2 total YPG on the road, which is -37.9 net YPG below their season average — and the 25.8 PPG they are scoring away from home is -3.5 net PPG below their season average. Quarterback Dak Prescott’s 232.2 passing YPG average on the road is -79.1 net YPG below what he is averaging at home. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games as a single-digit underdog with Prescott under center.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games against teams with a winning record — and the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record with Prescott starting at quarterback. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Detroit Lions (102) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the Detroit Lions (102). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-5-1) has won three games in a row after their 31-28 upset victory at home as a 3.5-point underdog last Thursday. Detroit (7-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-24 upset loss at home against Green Bay as a 3-point favorite on Thursday. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys' defense has significantly improved after acquiring defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson at the trade deadline. In their last three games with those two on the field, they are only giving up 21.7 Points-Per-Game and 312.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The run defense -- a big weakness when they had Micah Parsons — is holding opposing rushers to just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three contests. On the other side of the ball, Dallas is not at full strength with left tackle Tyler Guyton out with an ankle injury. The Cowboys are averaging 355.2 total YPG on the road, which is -37.9 net YPG below their season average — and the 25.8 PPG they are scoring away from home is -3.5 net PPG below their season average. Quarterback Dak Prescott’s 232.2 passing YPG average on the road is -79.1 net YPG below what he is averaging at home. Dallas has played only 4 games on the road with the Total set at 49.5 higher since the beginning of the 2023 season — and they have played 3 of those games Under the Total. They have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total when playing on turf. And in their last 8 games played in December, they have played 5 of those contests Under the Total. Detroit is dealing with several injuries that will limit what they want to do on offense. Tight end Sam LaPorta is already on injured reserve with a back injury. Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is doubtful with the ankle injury that he suffered last week against the Packers. Those absences leave the remaining targets for quarterback Jared Goff pretty thin. The offensive line is banged up as well, with left tackle Frank Ragnow, right tackle Penei Sewell, and center Graham Glasgow all questionable with injuries. Left guard Kayoffe Awosika is out with an injury as well — and he was spelling for Christian Mahogany, who is on the injured list, leaving the Lions to their third stringer at that position. As it is, Detroit is only scoring 22.3 PPG in their last three games — and some of that may be due to head coach Dan Campbell taking over the play-calling duties. In their last two games, the Lions have not converted even once in their seven fourth down attempts — but the stubborn Campbell is likely to continue to bypass three points to take the chance that his offense can extend drives and get closer to the end zone. Detroit has played 16 of their 24 games Under the Total after surrendering 30 or more points in their last game since Campbell took over, including three of their last four games Under the Total when played at Ford Field. 

FINAL TAKE: The Lions are scoring 29.2 PPG this season — and that helps to trigger an empirical situational angle that has been 75% effective since 2021. In the last 52 NFL games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, when one of the teams is scoring 24 or more PPG and comes off a game where they gave up 30 or more points in their last contest, those games finished Under the Total 39 times. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the Detroit Lions (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.