Frank Sawyer: Expert Sports Betting Picks for Sale

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 3/14:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday night is with Under the Total in the game between the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors and the UC-Irvine Anteaters. Hawai’i (23-8) has won five of their last six games after their 78-63 victory against CS-Fullerton in the semifinals of the Big West Conference tournament last night. The Rainbow Warriors have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They have also played 4 straight games in tournament action Under the Total. UC-Irvine (23-10) has won five games in a row after their 93-78 victory against CS-Northridge as a 3.5-point favorite on Friday. The Anteaters have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 7 of 10 (70%) college basketball run after DELIVERING their 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Total of the Year on the Davidson-Saint Joseph’s Under yesterday to fuel their 12 of 18 (67%) CBB streak! Frank enjoys a 6 of 8 (75%) CBB Game of the Year run — and now he furthers his 8 of 10 (80%) CBB Game of the Year/Month sides mark with a 25* CBB Conference Game of the Year for Saturday night! DO NOT MISS OUT!

 At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UC-Irvine Anteaters (634) minus the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (633) in the championship game of the Big West Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: UC-Irvine (23-10) has won five games in a row after their 93-78 victory against CS-Northridge as a 3.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament yesterday. Hawai’i (23-8) has won five of their last six games after their 78-63 triumph against CS-Fullerton as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Lee Family’s Forum in Henderson, Nevada. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE ANTEATERS MINUS THE POINT(S): UC-Irvine made 51.6% of their shots last night, which made it their third straight game when they shot at least 50.9% of their shots from the field. This team is going to be very tough to beat if they continue to shoot like that. The Anteater ranks 25th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They lead the nation by holding their opponents to a 42.5% shooting mark from inside the arc. Overall, they rank sixth in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.4%. The Matadors managed to make 47.1% of their shots last night, which was UC-Irvine’s worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Anteaters have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win against a rival Big West opponent, including five of those six games played on the road. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning three or more games in a row. Additionally, UC-Irvine has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played with one day or less of rest, including six of those seven games played on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing for the second straight day on the road. On the road, the Anteaters are surrendering -2.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. They improve to 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They rank second in the nation on the road with an opponent's effective field goal percentage of 45.3%. They also force turnovers in 19.3% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on the road, which ranks 23rd best in Division I. This is a monstrous liability for the Rainbow Warrior, who turn the ball over in 18.9% of their possessions, the 46th-worst mark in the nation. UC-Irvine has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games, including five of those six games played on the road. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court. Hawai’i held the Mustangs to a 35.9% field goal percentage last night, which was the best defensive effort in their last 13 contests. But the Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread 9 of their last 13 games after a win by 15 or more points, including all four of those games played on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played with one day or less of rest, including all five of those games played on the road. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when playing on the road for the second time in three days. On the road, they are surrendering +5.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions, the 50th-worst decline in Adjusted Net Efficiency as compared to home splits. They also turn the ball over in 19.8% of their possession when playing on the road, the 46th-worst rate. Overall, they see the 240th worst decline in Adjusted Net Efficiency when on the road of the 365 Division I teams — and UC-Irvine sees the 71st best improvement in Division I in that metric. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games with the Total listed in the 140s. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range, they have failed to cover the point spread 8 times. 

FINAL TAKE: The Rainbow Warriors want to avenge their 87-76 loss on the road to the Anteaters the last time these two teams played on January 29th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road. 25* CBB Big West Conference Game of the Year is on UC-Irvine Anteaters (634) minus the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (633). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 3/14:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with Akron minus the points versus Toledo in the championship game of the Mid-American Conference tournament. Akron (28-5) has won nine games in a row after their 75-68 victory against Kent State as a 6.5-point favorite yesterday. The Zips have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with one day or less of rest. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Toledo (19-14) has won six of their last seven games after their 77-67 win against UMass as a 2.5-point favorite on Friday. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with one day or less of rest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 35 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150s. Take Akron minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 7 of 10 (70%) college basketball run after DELIVERING their 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Total of the Year on the Davidson-Saint Joseph’s Under yesterday to fuel their 12 of 18 (67%) CBB streak! Frank enjoys a 6 of 8 (75%) CBB Game of the Year run — and now he furthers his 8 of 10 (80%) CBB Game of the Year/Month sides mark with a 25* CBB Conference Game of the Year for Saturday night! 

Frank also furthers his 44 of 69 (64%) CBB TOTALS TEAR with featured 25*/20*/10* plays with a 25* CBB Conference Total of the Year for Saturday night! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (627) and the Akron Zips (628) in the championship game of the Mid-American Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Toledo (19-14) has won three games in a row after their 77-67 victory against UMass as a 2.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament yesterday. Akron (28-5) rides a nine-game winning streak after their 75-68 victory against Kent State as a 6.5-point favorite in their semifinal contest on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Rocket Arena in Cleveland, Ohio.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win against a fellow Mid-American Conference rival — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 5 straight Unders after winning three or more games in a row. Toledo made 57.4% of their shots yesterday against a suspect Minutemen defense. But they are still scoring -2.3 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road. Their effective field goal percentage drops by -2.1% to a 53.5% clip when playing away from home. But on the other hand, they are surrendering -6.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted points when playing on the road, which is the 39th biggest improvement versus a team’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. The Rockets have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 150s, including 7 of those 10 games played on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog. Akron has played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a victory against a fellow MAC rival. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Toal after winning three or more games in a row. The Zips shell the Golden Flashes to just a 29.4% field goal percentage yesterday. On the road, they are surrendering -6.8 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions, which is the 30th best improvement in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency versus split stats at home. Akron ranks fifth in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 62.1% when playing on their home court. But when on the road, their effective field goal percentage drops by -5.9%, which is the 48th biggest decline in Division I. They only made 43.9% of their shots yesterday. The Zips have played 14 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Toal on the road, with the Total set in the 150s — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games on a neutral court Under the Total with the Total set in the 150-159.5 point range. And while Toledo makes 49.0% of their shots, Akron has played 17 of their 21 games Under the Total against teams who make at least 48% of their shots since John Groce took over as their head coach. 

FINAL TAKE: The Zips have played 4 straight Unders on a neutral court when laying 6.5 to 12 points — and the Rockets have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em. In the one regular season meeting between these two teams, Akron won by a 91-81 score on January 27th — and Toledo has played 3 of their 4 opportunities for same-season revenge this season Under the Total. 25* CBB Mid-American Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (627) and the Akron Zips (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.