Bryan Power

10* San Antonio (8:40 ET): The Spurs FINALLY got back into the win column on Saturday, beating the Clippers 101-94 as a 1-point home favorite. It was just their second win since the day after X-Mas, the other was by just two points at Boston on January 5th. But, I’ve previously made the case that this team is better than its record (currently 16-27 SU) and they should find their way into the play-in round mix. At home, San Antonio has actually outscored opponents despite an 8-12 mark here. 

Phoenix is in the second game of a back to back. They played Detroit yesterday afternoon and that meant an easy win as they raced to a 135-108 decision over the worst team in the league. But not all the news was good as DeAndre Ayton was lost to an ankle injury in the first quarter and thus is likely to miss this game. Being without one of your top players is a tough break when playing w/o rest. This is also the Suns’ fourth straight road game and third in the past four days.

San Antonio has been competitive in two previous meetings with Phoenix, losing both by just four points. I expect better offensive efficiency from the Spurs here than what they showed in the win over the Clippers. That game saw them score a season-low 36 points in the paint and shoot just 41.0% from the field. Yet seven players still finished in double figures, led by PG Murray’s 18. Phoenix will NOT shoot as well as they did on Sunday (58.6%), so take the points in this one. 10* San Antonio

10* LA Rams (8:15 ET): The Cardinals and Rams split two regular season meetings, both winning on the road. That’s the exact same scenario we had with Patriots-Bills on Saturday (a game where I backed the Bills, as part of a teaser, at home). I’ll do the same here with the Rams, figuring it’s highly unlikely that the home team would lose all three meetings in a season series. I know that Arizona has been the quintessential “road warrior” this season (8-1 SU/ATS), but my view is that the Rams are the better team. 

It wasn’t just the Cardinals’ road record that defied logic in the regular season. They also come into the playoffs a perfect 6-0 ATS as underdogs this year, winning straight up all six times. Per ESPN’s Stats & Info department, it’s the most outright wins as a dog in a single season, without a loss, during the Super Bowl Era! But this is no longer the same team that started the year 7-0 SU. They went just 4-6 SU down the stretch and no longer have WR DeAndre Hopkins, a major loss. This will also be QB Kyler Murray’s first playoff game. 

The Rams are better built for the playoffs than the Cardinals. They’ve also played better down the stretch. Los Angeles hasn’t lost a game in regulation since November 28th at Lambeau Field. That run includes a 30-23 win at Arizona on MNF. HC Sean McVay has owned Arizona during his tenure here, going 9-1 SU and ATS. Going back to that Arizona underdog trend, teams with a perfect ATS regular season record as dogs (at least two wins) cash only 40% in the playoffs. 10* LA Rams

8* Portland (7:00 ET): Portland has been a hot team at the betting window, covering the spread in each of its last four contests. Last time out, the Pilots evened their SU conference record at 1-1 with a rather dominating 82-63 win at Pepperdine. What was impressive about that showing wasn’t just the fact that Portland was a 6.5-point road underdog, but that they were also coming off a narrow OT loss just 48 hours prior. This team easily could be 4-0 SU (as well as 4-0 ATS) its last four games as the two losses have been by a total of seven points. I’m definitely taking the points here. 

Meanwhile, Loyola Marymount is reeling a bit as they’ve dropped B2B games to open the WCC schedule, both on the road. After getting waxed 97-73 by San Francisco (2nd best team in the league), the Lions were upset (as three-point favorites) at San Diego on Saturday. LMU has now dropped four of five overall with three of the losses coming by exactly five points. Their lone win in that stretch came at Bellarmine. 

Loyola Marymount will be thrilled to be back home after, like Portland, playing its last four games on the road. But home court advantage alone does not justify a double digit spread here. The Lions have actually lost two straight at home, losing to New Mexico State and Grand Canyon, both times as a short favorite. I’m a little shocked at how big this number is, considering that Portland has held the L4 opponents to an average of 61 PPG in regulation. In both losses, they had a halftime lead. An outright upset would not surprise me here. 8* Portland

10* UMKC (8:00 ET): Kansas City (UMKC) is a Summit League side that I feel has been underrated by the oddsmakers most of this season. This isn’t the first time I’ve backed the Roos. Back in December, they came through as a 10* play for me, beating Green Bay 64-55. They’ve gone just 3-3 SU in six games since that win and lost 84-72 as a 4.5-point home dog to Oral Roberts over the weekend. But this shapes up as the easiest matchup since that win over Green Bay over a month ago. I’m laying the number. 

Denver will be playing its third road game in five days here. That’s a tough spot, especially for a team that’s a hideous 1-11 SU away from home this season. They are 0-10 SU in “true” road games, including losses to South Dakota and South Dakota State last week. The Pioneers gave up 80 points in both games and never really threatened either time. They’ve now lost three in a row overall and their last four defeats have all been by nine points or more. 

UMKC has been a rather dominant home team thus far. They are 5-1 SU here and have outscored opponents by 27.6 points per game! They are scoring 81.8 PPG and allowing just 54.2. I expect solid shooting in this game from the Roos as Denver is giving up more than 80 PPG in conference play. Certainly, the home team is due for an uptick in shooting after making only 39.7% in their first four Summit League games.They are shooting 48.7% from the floor at home. The Roos captured both meetings last season by a 12 point margin. 10* UMKC

10* Napoli (12:30 ET): Let’s fade Bologna for a second straight time. It worked out on Tuesday, when they lost 2-1 to Cagliari, a side nowhere near as good as the one I Rossoblu will face today. Napoli is currently third in the Serie A table, seven points adrift of the top. But it wasn’t all that long ago that they looked like the strongest side in the entire league. Napoli began the season with eight straight wins and 12-match unbeaten run. Unfortunately, they’ve slipped a bit, failing to post back to back victories over their last 13 competitions and have just three wins in their last 10 domestic fixtures. 

But one of those three wins was last week, 1-0 over Sampdoria, which was reminiscent of the hot start to 2021/22. Napoli dominated possession (69%) and it was their 10th clean sheet this Serie A season. Unfortunately, it was a much different tune midweek in the Coppa Italia where they were down to nine men by the end of the match and lost 5-2. That was a very misleading score with three of the goals conceded coming in AET.

As I discussed prior to the last fixture, Bologna has been hit hard by COVID recently. That and the fact they have a -5 goal differential in the year have me thinking this side is going to quietly remain in the bottom half of the table the rest of the way. They’re now down to 13th and have conceded nine times while losing four of their last five. It was a convincing 3-0 win by Napoli in the reverse fixture back in October. No one in Serie A has conceded fewer times this season than Napoli’s 15. 10* Napoli