Bryan Power

8* Oakland (9:40 ET): The A’s lost for the sixth straight time to the Mariners last night, 4-2. As frustrating a loss as it was for them, it was even more so on this end as I went with Oakland in the series opener. My view on the Mariners is well documented by this point. This is a team that has no business even being in playoff contention. They have been outscored by 60 runs over the course of the season, which works out to an “expected” won-loss record of 68-82. But thanks to an incredible run of good fortune in close games, the team’s actual record is 81-69. They are the only AL team to have a winning record and negative run differential.

As you can see, the Mariners’ have outperformed their expected win total by 13 games. Now consider this - no other team in all of baseball has outperformed its expected win total by more than six games. Yesterday’s result leaves Seattle one game behind Oakland and three back of the second Wild Card spot, which is what both teams are chasing. The A’s are long overdue to snap this long losing skid to the Mariners. They’ve got a run differential of +67 on the season. I view them as a far more “legitimate” playoff contender compared to Seattle. Oakland had won five in a row going into yesterday. 

At the plate, Seattle has the lowest team batting average in all of MLB. They are also bottom five in both slugging and on base percentage. This is NOT a good team, folks! I’m aware that Tuesday’s starter Marco Gonzales has pitched well down the stretch, going 7-0 (9-3 TSR) with a 2.70 ERA his L12 starts. But after a five-out save last night, ace reliever Paul Sewald will likely NOT be available for manager Scott Servais tonight. Oakland had been getting good starting pitching lately and on top of that they’ve averaged 8.3 rpg in Paul Blackburn’s three September outings. Blackburn goes tonight, looking for his third straight win. He’ll get it. 8* Oakland

10* Cleveland (6:10 ET): The Indians lost twice to the Royals yesterday as they were swept in a doubleheader. They lost the two seven-inning games by scores of 7-2 and 4-2. What makes those results quite shocking is the fact the Tribe has dominated the Royals this season. They won 11 of the first 12 head to head matchups. So history says it’s quite likely they’ll bounce back on Tuesday and I’m going to take them here. The home team didn’t get it done at the plate on Monday, but had previously scored 11+ runs in three of their last four games. They’ve also got a red hot starter in Cal Quantrill set to toe the rubber this evening. 

Quantrill has won six of his last seven decisions and posted a 2.38 ERA and 1.037 WHIP his L7 starts overall. He’s pitched much better than his season-long TSR of 8-12 would seem to indicate. As I just alluded to, recently the results have been more favorable for Quantrill and the Indians. The right-hander is coming off B2B wins over the Minnesota Twins where he allowed just four runs and six hits over the course of 14 ⅓ IP. Three of the four runs allowed were unearned. Quantrill is also unbeaten at Progressive Field this season with a 4-0 WL record in 12 starts here. 

Kansas City had lost four of five coming into the series, all at home, and they generally do not hit well on the road (.234). So yesterday’s results were definitely “out of the ordinary” for them. Rookie Daniel Lynch will get the starting nod Tuesday and he’s really struggled in September, posting a 9.28 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in three starts. He also wasn’t very good when he faced Cleveland back on May 3rd. Quantrill won his lone start vs. the Royals this year and the Indians entered yesterday with an 18-9 record this season as a home favorite of -125 to -175. 10* Cleveland  

10* Atalanta (2:45 ET): Perennial Serie A power Atalanta has an excellent chance to move up the table on Tuesday when it takes on struggling Sassuolo. The third place finisher each of the previous three campaigns, Atalanta currently sits just eighth in the standings, having taken only seven points from their first four matches. Rightfully regarded as a “high-flying” side, perhaps the most shocking thing about Atalanta’s start is that they’ve scored only four goals. Each of those previous three seasons, they’ve led the Italian top flight in goals scored. I sense them breaking loose here and nabbing all three points. 

Sassuolo sits in 12th position right now, having taken just four points from their four matches. They too have scored four times, but have conceded five, which is two more than Atalanta has. The lone win this season for Sassuolo came in the opening match, 3-2 over Hellas Verona. Since then, they’ve really struggled for new manager Alessio Dionisi with the only point coming from a goalless draw against Sampdoria. They are off B2B losses, to Roma and Torino, the latter again seeing them fail to score. It’s not like Atalanta has been a favorable matchup in the past for the Neroverdi; they’ve been outscored 16-5 in the previous five meetings. So this seems like an unlikely spot for a turnaround. 

Atalanta desperately needed the goal they got in the 75th minute from Duvan Zapata against last place Salernitana last week. It not only gave them the win and three points, but also ensured they wouldn’t be winless over three straight Serie A matches, something they have not done since last November. A 2-2 draw with La Liga’s Villarreal in the Champions League was respectable, but the losses that preceded it - 2-1 to Fiorentina and 1-0 to Bologna here in Serie A - were not. As I wrote earlier, this just feels like a club ready to “break out” and I see them putting the sword to Sassuolo here. 10* Atalanta

8* Atletico Madrid (1:30 ET): This is a shockingly low price on the reigning La Liga champs as they face one of the teams at the foot of the table. Coming into the 2021/22 season, I was a little leery that Atletico might regress, but so far that has not happened as they are one of three sides in the Spanish top flight to have played five matches and not taste defeat. Now they are off consecutive goalless draws, one of those coming in the Champions League against Portuguese power Porto, but the side they are facing here has scored only once in four La Liga fixtures so far. It should be an easy three points for Los Colchoneros. 

While Atletico has yet to taste defeat in the Spanish top flight this season, Getafe has yet to win a single match. They are the only team in La Liga to have played five times and have zero points to show for it. They are 19th in the table right now and the only reason they aren’t sitting in last place (20th) is because 0-0-4 Alaves has an inferior goal differential. Getafe finished dangerously close to the drop zone a season ago (just four points clear) so their current position is really nothing new. They were dealt a tough set of fixtures to open this season with Valencia, Sevilla and Barcelona being the first three opponents. But a 1-0 loss to Elche and 3-0 loss to newly promoted Rayo Vallecano over the last two weeks only served to confirm what most already knew - this side is one of the worst in La Liga. 

The fact Atletico hasn’t scored in B2B matches makes me think they are due for a major breakthrough here. All it will likely take is one goal considering Getafe has been unable to score even one time in the last five meetings. Remember that Atletico conceded only 25 times all of last season, the fewest number in the league. Other than a 2-2 draw with Villarreal on August 29th, they’ve conceded only one other time in their last five across all competitions. Though Joao Fenix wasn’t sent off until late (78th minute), it is worth noting Los Colchoneros were down to 10 men by the end of Saturday’s draw against Athletic Bilbao. At this price, the reigning champs are a steal. 8* Atletico Madrid