Bryan Power

10* Indiana (7:00 ET): The Hoosiers have lost seven straight times to Purdue, a streak that goes back to the 2016-17 season. But this year, IU is clearly the better team and I think they’ll show that Thursday night at Assembly Hall. I was on the Hoosiers Sunday evening when they went to Nebraska and won 84-76 as a six-point favorite. While that ended up being a close game for much of the second half, be aware that IU led by double digits at halftime and was in control most of the way. They’ve now won three of four, the lone loss coming in double overtime at Wisconsin last week. I’m laying the points here.

Purdue is off an upset as they went to East Lansing last Friday and beat Michigan State 55-54 as a six-point dog. We know Sparty is overrated this year, but don’t tell that to the contingent in West Lafayette as they were just happy to win a game after dropping three of their previous four. The Boilermakers have also really been struggling at the betting window where they are just 2-7-1 L10 games. I should mention tonight will be their FOURTH consecutive road game, a tall order no matter the opponent, but when faced with a team that has an argument to be in the Top 25 the task is obviously even more difficult. 

Purdue has played a total of five “true” road games before this. They have been held under 60 points in four of them. That seems troubling when facing a team that is averaging 78.6 PPG at home, not to mention just dropped 84 on the road. The Hoosiers are also 14th in the country in defensive efficiency. They are obviously well aware of the losing streak to Purdue and thus should come in supremely motivated here. Tip your cap to Purdue for the win at East Lansing, but they trailed by 15 at halftime and won on a last second shot. 10* Indiana

8* Under California/Colorado (2:00 ET): Cal has gone Over in seven straight games, but this afternoon they are running into an opponent that I feel is among the most underrated teams in the country, that being Colorado. The Buffs scored for us on Monday, beating Utah 65-58 as a 2.5-pt favorite, though they did have to rally back from a 10-point halftime deficit to do so. This is a team that plays excellent defense, especially at home where they are allowing just 55.3 points per game thus far. You’ll want to be on the Under here. 

California won its first Pac 12 game of the season Saturday by defeating struggling Washington 84-78. That was the Bears’ highest scoring effort since an 87-56 blowout of CS Northridge back on 12/19. Between those two 80+ point games, Cal was held to 70 or less four straight times. I should also bring up the fact that playing on the road should lead to an obvious decrease in offensive production. The Bears have played five “true” road games thus far and the most they’ve scored in any of them was 69. Four times they were held to 64 or less. 

Colorado is 18th in the country in defensive efficiency, so they’ve certainly “got the goods” to slow down Cal today. I really can’t believe this team isn’t ranked as my power ratings comfortably have them in the Top 20. It appears as if they are getting Cal at the perfect time as two of the Bears’ key players - Matt Bradley and Kuany Kuany - have been battling injuries and both missed the last game. Bradley is the team’s leading scorer, so if he misses a third straight game, it would be a huge loss. This game was supposed to be played last night, but got bumped back due to COVID protocols. The early afternoon start time may lead to a “sleepy start” for both teams. 8* Under California/Colorado

8* Golden State (10:05 ET): Denver has struggled out of the gate and I can’t say I’m all that surprised. Coming off B2B seasons where they seemingly “overachieved,” regression was eventually going to take hold. In 2018-19, the Nuggets really benefited from a 13-3 SU record in games decided by three points or less. In 2019-20, they weren’t as fortunate in close games, but did manage to still finish 3rd in the West despite having the 6th best point differential in the Conference. They have begun the current season 5-6 SU (3-8 ATS) and are coming off a six-point loss in Brooklyn the other night. 

Conversely, everyone expected Golden State to improve this year after shockingly falling to the depths of the league in 2019-20. Injuries were the main culprit for LY’s decline. I don’t think we’ll ever get to the point where it’s the “Warriors of old,” but there’s no reason why the Dubs can’t nap a top eight spot in the West this season. It’s a little surprising that they’ve only been favored three times so far, the most recent being Tuesday’s 104-95 LOSS to Indiana. But despite that, they still come into tonight sporting a 6-5 SU overall record.

The Nuggets are probably due for a lower-scoring game tonight after shooting better than 50% from the field in three consecutive contests. Plus, they just allowed the Nets to shoot over 60% on Tuesday. But Golden State should see its own scoring increase here following B2B subpar shooting efforts against Toronto & Indiana. Rather quietly, the Dubs are playing great defense of late as they’ve held their L5 opponents to 105.6 PPG on 42.9% shooting. I like them as underdogs tonight as they’ve won outright four of their last five times in that role. Take the points. 8* Golden State