Bryan Power

10* Under Mets/Cardinals (8:15 ET): Everyone but Miami has their eyes on the pennant in the NL East this year. Of the four viable teams, the Mets are the only ones to be outscored this season. They're sitting at 10-8 overall, but have a -10 run differential, which is not great for predicting future outcomes. It's still early obviously, but the fact they have allowed a NL-high 113 runs so far is an ominous sign. Keep in mind this is a pitching staff anchored by the likes of Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. The Over is 13-4-1 in all Mets' games so far this season. But I think this series opener in St. Louis is set to go a bit differently. 

St. Louis has the same 10-8 record as the Mets, but they have a +12 run differential, which says they've played the better baseball. They've certainly played better recently, winning 7 of the last 10 games, although they needed a 6-3 win Wednesday in Milwaukee to avoid a sweep in that series. It's been almost a full calendar year since the Cardinals took the field against the Mets as all six meetings last year took place before the end of April. They split the six meetings the Over going 4-1-1. Again though, I look for a different result here. 

Two of the oldest starting pitchers in all of baseball will face off here. For the Cardinals, Adam Wainwright appears to be beating Father Time. He has a 3.94 ERA and 1.125 WHIP and is off B2B quality starts. He's allowed just 10 baserunners in his last 12 IP. Last time out, he didn't give up a hit until there was one out in the sixth. Granted, that was the Reds he was facing, but it was a similar story the start before that (against San Diego) where he allowed only 1 run in six innings w/ a 9-0 KW rate. Jason Vargas has admittedly NOT pitched well so far for the Mets, but he can only improve compared to past outings (lasted only 1/3 of an inning last time out!). The Under is 3-0-1 the L4 times Vargas went 4 innings or less in his last start. 10* Under Mets/Cardinals

8* Cleveland (7:05 ET): This would appear to be a VERY low price on Corey Kluber pitching at home. Now part of that is obviously due to the fact Kluber has struggled at the outset here in 2019. He has a 6.16 ERA and 1.842 WHIP after four starts and the only time he took the mound here at Progressive Field went shockingly bad. Kluber was bounced after 3 1/3 innings after giving up six runs and that was against the lowly White Sox. But I feel it's only a matter of time before this former Cy Young winner gets things going. Tonight sounds like a nice time to start!

Having Kluber on the mound isn't the only advantage Cleveland has here. They are at home where they've gone 5-1 this season. Thursday was also an off-day for them while Atlanta was wrapping up a series against Arizona. The last series for the two teams here couldn't have gone more differently. The Indians swept the Mariners out in Seattle while the Braves were swept at home by the D'backs. Now having to go out on the road isn't a great deal for Atlanta. Not only was there no off-day, but they've given up an average of 6.0 runs in their previous five road games. 

Oh, the Indians also get Francisco Lindor back in the lineup tonight. It figured to be somewhat of a challenging start to the season for the team as they were w/o their best hitter. But they went 11-7 and now have him back. Atlanta will start Touki Toussant for the 1st time this year. Toussant did throw six innings of a relief on Saturday and was originally set to start yday's game, but was pushed back for rest purposes. Opposing teams are batting just .179 at Progressive Field so far as Cleveland's pitching has been strong. That's nothing new, but it's usually Kluber leading the way. Now, he simply joins in "on the fun." 8* Cleveland

7* Calgary (10:05 ET): Pardon the pun, but we're one game away from BOTH of the top seeds in the NHL playoffs going down in "flames." Tampa Bay is out after a historically great regular season (62 wins!) and now - out West - Calgary faces the same fate if they don't win their next three games. For Flames' fans, this feeling has to be all too familiar. The last three times Calgary has won a division title, they've gone out in the first round. Then again, this is their first time as the top seed in the Western Conference since the 1988-89 season, the last time they won the Stanley Cup. 

But history doesn't matter to the Flames right about now, only the present does. They're down 3-1 to an Avalanche team they went 3-0 against in the regular season. Perhaps I'm biased, but outside of Game 3 (where they lost 6-2), I feel that Calgary has been the better team in this series. Twice they've lost in overtime, including Game 4 where they blew a two goal lead. (Unfortunately, I was on them). Game 2 saw them minutes away from taking a commanding 2-0 series lead only to give up a game-tying goal late in regulation. The Flames could easily be the ones up 3-1 in this series. 

Now they are back home. If you recall, I had them in Game 1 when they won here by a score of 4-0. A big problem for the Flames in the two games in Colorado was that they gave up a TON of shots. The number was 108 to be exact w/ the Avs posting 50+ in both games. That makes a goaltenders life very difficult. Fortunately, now that they're back home, I expect Calgary's offense to pick back up. They had the highest goals per game average at home of any team in the league in the regular season. I don't see them losing this series on home ice. 7* Calgary

10* Indiana (8:35 ET): The Pacers lost a couple of low scoring games in Boston, 84-74 and 99-91. Game 1 saw them fall apart in the third quarter when they scored all of eight points. In Game 2, the collapse happened later. They were outscored 31-12 in the fourth quarter this time as Boston outscored them 10-0 over the final five minutes. Indiana desperately needs to find some offense as they've been held 100 points the last three times they've played the Celtics. Game 1 was their lowest scoring game of the year (same as the Celtics). At home, I think Indiana finds the missing offense and delivers in a virtual "must-win" spot. Lay the short number.

Boston hasn't exactly been shooting the lights out either. They shot just 36.4% in Game 1 and 47.6% in Game 2. Kyrie Irving had 37 points in Game 2, but outside of Jayson Tatum (26 pts), he didn't have much help. Only one other Celtic had more than six points. Remember that Jaylen Brown is now starting in place of the injured Marcus Smart. I expect Smart's absence to be felt more on the road. The Celtics were only mediocre on the road in the regular season, going 21-20 overall and they had a losing record as an underdog.

Meanwhile, Indiana is an outstanding 29-12 SU at home. Key for them is defense. The fact that they've held the Celtics under 100 in both games should not come as a shock considering the Pacers were #1 in the league in scoring defense. They allow just 101 PPG at home, so expect the defensive prowess to continue as they find their offensive touch. The Pacers won 24 of their 33 games as a home favorite in the regular season, outscoring opponents by almost eight points per game. Yes, there's been a big swing in the line from Games 1 & 2. However, Indiana is significantly better here and they are also a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off a road trip of at least seven days. 10* Indiana

8* Under Magic/Raptors (7:05 ET): I had the Under in Game 1 of this series. In my analysis, I stated that "an outright upset is definitely in the realm of possibility here" due to the Raptors' poor history in Game 1's. That's exactly what happened as the Magic won outright 104-101 as 9.5-pt dogs. Of course, I'd also noted the Magic posted the league's top defensive efficiency rating in the second half of the regular season and won 22 of their final 31 games. Given Orlando's defensive prowess, I certainly thought it odd that they came into the playoffs riding a 7-game Over streak. 

Game 1 went Under and so did Game 2. I thought Toronto might underestimate their opponent for Game 1, but that was definitely not the case in Game 2 as they came out and won 111-82. The Magic didn't shoot well in either game (40% and 37%). We figure to see improvement in that department for Game 3, now that they're at home. But at the same time, Toronto is no slouch defensively itself. The Raptors have not allowed any opponent to shoot 50% since the All-Star Break. Incredibly, they've allowed only three opponents to shoot 50% or better since January 1st.

  But let's go back to the fact Orlando has posted the defensive efficiency rating in the league since the Break. Toronto came into the playoffs having scored 110 or more points in nine consecutive games. I said that streak would end in Game 1 and it did. They scored 111 in Game 2, but again I'm calling for less than 110 pts here. Neither Kawhi Leonard nor Kyle Lowry should shoot as well as they did in Game 2. When Orlando is off an ATS loss, the Under has gone 24-11 this season. The Under is also 6-0 their last six times hosting Toronto. 8* Under Magic/Raptors