Bryan Power

10* Cleveland (8:00 ET): Saying last season was "bad" for the Browns would be an understatement of epic proportions. Not only were they 1-15 SU in the regular season, they lost all four preseason games as well (0-4 ATS!). In fact, prior to last week, this moribund franchise had lost 10 of its previous 12 exhibition contests. But led by rookie QB DeShone Kizer, they were able to beat the Saints, 20-14 as three-point home favorites. Cleveland gets to stay in the "Dawg Pound" this week for a nationally televised affair against the Giants, who lost their preseason opener 20-12, as 3.5-pt chalk, to Pittsburgh. Right now, it is the Browns that - clearly - have more to prove and I look for that to translate onto the field tonight as they win their second consecutive preseason game.

The Giants are in store for some major regression in 2017, at least from where I sit. Last year saw them go 8-3 SU in one-score games and finish w/ a point differential of just +26, which is more indicative of a 9-win team than an 11-win one. I've got them falling back to 7-9 (SU) for 2017 due to a variety of reasons. As I just made note of, they exceeded their Pythagorean win expectation (8.8) by over two games last year. So they were quite fortunate to go 11-5 SU. Only Houston had a larger difference between actual and Pythagorean wins last year. The defense made a massive jump from 30th in DVOA to 2nd, so that unit will regress. QB Eli Manning is now getting up there in years (he's 36!) and is in decline. Manning did not play last week and figures to only be on the field for a few series (at most) tonight. The QB's that did see time last week - Geno Smith, Davis Webb and Josh Johnson - hardly strike fear into my heart. 

The Browns do not yet know who will be their starting QB come Wk 1 of the regular season. Brock Osweiler (brought over from Houston via trade) is being given every opportunity, but he stinks and isn't long for the job anyway. Cody Kessler saw significant time under center LY, but was outplayed last week by the rookie Kizer, who finished up w/ 184 yds passing (including the GW TD). The organization probably doesn't want Kizer to be the starter just yet, but that doesn't mean he won't play well again. I also liked what I saw from the Browns defense LW as the two rookies - Myles Garrett and Jabril Peppers - both looked good. The Browns have also had an extra day to prepare for this game and like I said earlier, this being a national TV affair should only further motivate the team in front of its own fans. Unlike most teams in the league, Cleveland SHOULD care about winning in the preseason. 10* Cleveland

10* LA Angels: Two of the eight teams (separated by only five games!) in the American League fighting for that second Wild Card open up the week w/ a critical four-game set in Anaheim. Weeks ago, I said that it was the Angels that could be the team that breaks out from this loaded pack and sure enough they've made me look pretty smart by winning 9 of 11, including a one-run victory at Baltimore on Sunday. The Rangers are also playing well entering Monday; they've won 8 of 11, but did lose yday (at home) to the lowly White Sox. Texas remains an interesting case study in regression as LY they led the AL in wins, but did so in spite of a measley +8 run differential. This year, their run diff is +35 (only one of the eight teams w/ a positive run diff currently), but they're a game below .500! While recent numbers look impressive for them, note all those games came at home. For the Angels, this is their return home following a nine-game road trip. I expect them to play well and they're the better team overall. 

Texas is probably feeling pretty good about itself w/ Cole Hamels set to be on the mound this evening. But even though he's 8-1 (9-6 TSR) and the team has won each of his L3 starts, he also has an ERA of 4.00 on the road this year. He's pitched very well against the Angels this year, giving up just one run in two starts (14 2/3 IP) , though the team did lose the one here in Anaheim. Let's note that the Rangers are just 26-33 overall on the road this year w/ their bullpen posting terrible numbers, such as a 5.30 ERA and 1.640 WHIP. They team may also be w/o two key contributors tonight as 3B Joey Gallo and reliever Matt Bush ran into each other yday, resulting in concussions for both. Reportedly, neither made the trip to Anaheim last night. Though the Rangers scored 17 runs on Saturday, having to settle for a split w/ the White Sox (4-game series) over the weekend isn't exactly inspiring. 

Texas comes in having scored the third most runs in the American League, trailing only the Astros and Yankees. But surprisingly, the Angelss have allowed the fourth fewest runs and are even ahead of the Astros. Tyler Skaggs has yet to win since coming back to the rotation at the start of the month, but his ERA in three starts is 2.94. Last time out, he allowed two solo HR's in a hard-luck 3-1 loss to the Nationals. But Skaggs should expect more run support this time as the offense scored 5+ runs in six of the nine games on the just completed road trip, doing so despite Andrelton Simmons being mired in a 0 for 19 slump (which should turn around sooner rather than later). Furthermore, the Halos are 55-26 their L81 games as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 10* LA Angels

8* Run Line NY Mets (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Mets +1.5. Even after dropping five of their last six (were just swept in Minnesota), the D'backs are still in Wild Card position in the National League, though their margin for error is now growing slimmer by the day. Expect "the world" to be on them tonight as they visit the Mets, who have lost six of their last seven games. But this road trip has made clear that Arizona is simply NOT the same team on the road as their runs per game average dips by nearly a run and a half compared to what they score at Chase Field. As a result, their record away from home is only 28-33 and that includes a 3-6 mark when favored in the -125 to -175 range. I think the Mets will do no worse than a one-run loss here, so take the +1.5.

In the interest of full disclosure, the Mets let me down yday, losing 6-4 to the Marlins. That was w/ Jacob deGrom pitching. They did at least make things interesting late - by scoring three runs in the bottom of the eighth, but alas, it was not enough. The key play in the game was Miami's Dee Gordon reaching base on an infield single as Giancarlo Stanton quickly followed w/ a 3-run HR. This has obviously become a "lost" season in Queens, but that doesn't mean you won't still find some value on the Metropolitans from time to time. Here, they'll send Robert Gsellman to the mound. This will be just his second start since coming off the DL. The first came at Yankee Stadium, which was a tough spot, and he only allowed four hits in 5 1/3 IP. He did allow three runs - one unearned - and generall speaking when he's not facing one of the "big boys" (like a Los Angeles or Washington), he's pitched okay.

Arizona will send Taijuan Walker to the bump and he hasn't won in two months. Lately, he's simply been pretty bad as his ERA is 5.62 and his WHIP is 1.562 the L3 starts. Overall, the team has lost the last SEVEN times he's pitched. That's not good, nor is the team's hitting over the previous week. They're averaging just 2.9 rpg w/ a collective .217 batting average. While they did sweep the Mets back in May (at Chase Field), two of those games were decided by one run. Arizona has played the third-most one-run games in all of baseball w/ 39. The way in which they got dominated over the weekend (by Minnesota!) is an ominous sign as they were outscored 27-8 in the three games. 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5)