Bryan Power

9* Kansas City (10:10 ET): Most won't see either side having any kind of significant edge in a battle of last place teams, but I see the revenge angle being pretty strong here for KC. They were swept at home by Seattle in early April and have now dropped nine in a row to the Mariners, dating back to last season. However, as we now know, the Mariners 13-2 start to the season was a total mirage. So was the entirety of their 2018 season, to be frank. Even after a win Sunday (6-3 at Oakland), the M's have dropped 42 of their last 60 games. The Royals have a nearly identical YTD run differential to Seattle and are better than their record. 

Only Baltimore has a worse win percentage than Kansas City (.324). However, the Royals have been outscored by "only" 69 runs this year while Baltimore has been outscored by 151! In fact, KC has a much better run differential than Detroit (-132), who is two games ahead of them, and one close to a Chicago team (-57) that is 34-36! Maybe it's not saying much, but the Royals have played to the level of a 28-win team. This is in stark contrast to Seattle's 2018 season in which they somehow won 89 games despite being outscored by 34 runs. That dichotomy played a big role in me picking them to be one of this year's big regressors, which is exactly what's taken place. 

It's not entirely clear who will be the first Seattle pitcher to toe the rubber Monday. Tommy Milone is set to pitch, but the last two times he's gone, the team has used an "opener" before him. Given that the Mariners have allowed the most runs in all of MLB this season, I could care less who is out there. The Royals counter w/ Danny Duffy, who is looking for his first win in a month. Even though he didn't factor into the decision last Wednesday, Duffy held the Tigers to just two runs and four hits in seven innings. There won't be many times I go "big" on the Royals this season, but this is definitely one of them. 9* Kansas City

8* Toronto Run Line (7:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Blue Jays +1.5. This is a situation where the home team has revenge for a three-game sweep they suffered out in LA at the beginning of May. While the Blue Jays certainly haven't been performing well of late, they were at least able to go 3-3 on their just completed six-game road trip, which ended w/ an emphatic 12-0 beatdown of the Astros Sunday. Toronto won't be lacking for motivation here, not just b/c the revenge angle, but they'll also be looking to snap a four-game slide at home. Take them on the RL (+1.5). 

The Angels went into Sunday trying to even their season record at .500. They lost, 6-5 to the Rays, dropping them to 0-7 the last seven times they've had a chance to move to .500 on the year. Overall, they split the four-game series in TB, but that's just the start of an 11-game road trip that now takes them North of the Border, then to St. Louis. That's quite the trip for a West Coast team and it's not as if the Halos are any kind of true "road warriors." Justin Upton is expected to make his season debut Monday while Andrelton Simmons (missed the last month) could return later in the series. Still, I'm not liking the Angels today. 

Part of the reason I'm not liking them is that they are going w/ an "opener." Luis Garcia is expected to go first, followed by Felix Pena. Even facing the team w/ the lowest team batting average in MLB, this is hardly a formidable way to start the series. Admittedly, Toronto starter Edwin Jackson has been really bad thus far w/ an 11.90 ERA and 2.238 WHIP in five starts (0-5 TSR). But four of the six runs he allowed last time out were unearned. I like the run line here due to Jackson and the fact that the Jays aren't exactly a high-scoring team. But I won't be the least bit surprised if they win this game "outright." 8* Toronto Run Line (+1.5)

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Turns out that the Tigers were just what the "doctor ordered" for the Indians. They swept them (in Detroit) and are now four games over .500 (37-33) heading into what shapes up as a pretty important early season series w/ Texas. The Rangers still hold the 2nd Wild Card in the American League, but I played against them yday and they lost 11-3 to Cincinnati. It's down to a one-half game lead over Cleveland for that last WC spot, but there's obviously still a lot of baseball to be played. The fact the Indians come in as a slight betting favorite for Monday's opener "tells a story" in my view and I'll back the Tribe here. 

The Rangers are the 2nd highest scoring team in baseball (Twins) but will have to contend w/ an Indians pitching staff that is top five in fewest runs allowed. It may not be saying much, but the Indians outscored the Tigers 25-6 in the three-game sweep. That included an 8-0 shutout Sunday behind Trevor Bauer. Mike Clevinger will look to follow suit here as he returns from the 60-day DL (back) here. Clevinger made only two starts before the injury, but had looked very good. In 12 scoreless innings of work, he'd allowed all of two hits and had 22 K's. Most importantly, Cleveland won both games. I think Clevinger can be a tremendous asset on an Indians' pitching staff that is already quite good. 

Texas has been one of the biggest surprises in the league so far. They lost 95 games last season. While a strong home team so far (24-12), it remains to be seen whether or not they can continue the current pace. Lance Lynn gets the start here. While he is unbeaten at home (4-0 in six starts), his ERA is 4.91 and his WHIP is 1.418. So it's not as if he's been dominant. Note Texas is 1-6 their L7 home games following a road trip of 7+ days. So, historically speaking, this has not been a good spot for them. 10* Cleveland