Bryan Power

10* CS Fullerton (10:30 ET): The reality of the Big West is that UC Irvine is a lot better than everyone else. Only two other teams in the league (USCB, Hawaii) can claim to have a winning record overall. However, CS Fullerton (12-13 SU) can claim second place in the standings, thanks to an 8-3 SU conference record. The Titans come into Thursday having won eight of their last nine games, the lone loss coming at UC Irvine by a score of 60-53. While they were certainly held in check in that game, the Titans have scored at least 77 points in each of the last seven wins. 

Cal Davis will also come into tonight riding a win streak as they've come out on top each of their L5 games. Three of those have been on the road, though the last two were both at home. Saturday saw them beat Long Beach State 77-73 as they rallied back from an eight-point halftime deficit. It should be pointed out that the entirety of the Aggies' win streak has come at the expense of the bottom half of the Big West. Not that Cal State Fullerton has downed any "world-beaters" either, but as you're about to read, home court advantage is going to play a significant role in this game. 

CS Fullerton has only played nine home games so far. They're 7-2 SU outscoring opponents by 13.2 PPG. Given that they are just 12-13 SU overall, it should be pretty obvious that the Titans are simply a much better team here at home. Their scoring goes up substantially while the number of points allowed also drops noticeably. Cal Davis is just 3-10 SU on the road, averaging only 63.3 PPG. So, yes, coming into February, the Aggies were actually 0-10 SU on the road. This three-game win streak is pretty shocking then and unlikely to last. They are just 1-10 SU as a road underdog, getting outscored by double digits in those games. 10* CS Fullerton

8* Louisiana (8:00 ET): UT Arlington's bid to win the Sun Belt hit a major "snag" last week as they lost twice, both times on the road. First, it was to Arkansas Little Rock by a score of 56-52. Leading scorer Edric Dennis scored only six points in that game (on 2 of 15 shooting), thus the Mavericks could not take advantage of the fact their opponents scored a season-low 30 pts in the 2nd half. On Saturday, it was a 4-point loss at Arkansas State (83-79). Dennis again struggled (only 8 pts), but it was more the Mavericks' defense betraying them than anything else.

Louisiana is coming off B2B wins. The latest was on Saturday, 83-76 over rival LA Monroe. The Rajin Cajuns had a nice long layoff going into that rivalry game (where they were also playing w/ revenge) as they had not played since the previous Friday when they beat Georgia State 76-72 as two-point underdogs. That, like the LA Monroe game, was at home. Against Georgia State, Louisiana had a double-digit lead at halftime and was able to hold on for the win.

It would be easy to simply look at where Louisiana's last two wins took place (at home!) and where UT Arlington's two losses took place (on the road!) and decide tonight will be different based on the changes in venue. But note that even though the Mavericks are still tied for third in the conference, they have a losing SU record overall (12-14) and have been beaten four times this year at home. Regardless of whether they are playing at home or on the road, Louisiana can score as they come in averaging 83.0 PPG, which is top 20 in the country. A high scoring underdog that's in better form than its opponent sounds like a "good deal" to me. 8* Louisiana

10* Under Celtics/Bucks (8:05 ET): I can see this being the matchup for the Eastern Conference Finals, but we have a long way to go until then. Milwaukee is certainly in good position coming out of the Break as they lead the Conference w/ a 43-14 SU record along w/ the NBA's best point differential (+9.8). Boston has been hit hard by both injuries and internal strife, thus they are "lagging" behind some in 4th place (37-21 SU), though they can claim the East's 2nd best point differential at +6.4. Coming out of the Break, I expect both sides to be a bit rusty, thus I'll go w/ the Under here. 

Milwaukee is known as an "offensive team," but they actually sport the league's best defensive efficiency rating. (Boston isn't too far behind at #4). The Bucks ended the 1st half w/ three straight Unders and only one opponent has topped 107 pts in their last six games. This will be just the third time this season that the Bucks are playing w/ three or more days rest. The Under is 2-0 the previous two times and they've also gone Under the last four times when playing teams with a winning record. Given the competitive nature of the two teams involved here, this seems like a really high total. 

Boston and Milwaukee have met two times this year and both games did go Over. However, those were lower totals. Both games took place in Boston and each team won once. It should be noted that the Celtics' scoring does drop slightly, down to 109.9 PPG, on the road. Now Milwaukee obviously averages more PPG at home, but neither team's average PPG scored + allowed adds up to what the total is for tonight. Again, with this being the 1st game back from the Break, I don't see either side being in "peak" form offensively. 10* Under Celtics/Bucks

8* Under Blues/Stars (8:35 ET): The hottest in the team in the league right now resides in St. Louis as the Blues have won a franchise record 11 straight and generally speaking, they have been dominant in doing so, outscoring the opposition 43-16. Incredibly, they were close to pulling off a fourth straight shutout Tuesday vs. Toronto before giving up two third period goals. They still won obviously, in overtime. I wouldn't bet against this Blues team right now, but Dallas can be stingy, despite what we've seen from them recently. I'm on the Under here. 

The Stars had actually been shutout themselves in two straight games going into Tuesday. But three goals were NOT enough to overcome Nashville here at home. It was just the fifth time this season that Dallas lost a game in which it scored three or more times (21-4-1). But despite recent form, Dallas still ranks third in the league in goals allowed (2.61 per game). Their problem is clearly on offense where they rank 29th at 2.51 goals per game. Thus, they have generally been a "boon" for Under bettors w/ a 35-17-5 mark in all games. The Nashville game marked just the second Over for them in the last 18 games! 

St. Louis has gone Under in each of its last four games and the Under is 19-8-2 on the road for them. Obviously, it's been quite difficult to score on this team. Before the third period vs. Toronto Tuesday night, they'd gone 11 straight periods w/o giving up a goal. Much of that is owed to the remarkable play of rookie netminder Jordan Binnington, who is now 13-1-1 in all starts w/ a 1.61 GAA and .937 save percentage. Looking at the Stars' season as a whole coupled w/ the Blues recent play, I think it's quite reasonable to expect tonight to be a low-scoring affair. 8* Under Blues/Stars

8* Under Kings/Predators (8:05 ET): Two teams at the opposite end of the Western Conference spectrum face off tonight in Music City. The Predators have a golden opportunity here to pass the Jets (who lost last night) and climb back into first place in the Central Division. The Preds have hardly played well of late (2-3-1 L6 games), but a 5-3 win at Dallas on Tuesday was definitely a step in the right direction. Tonight should be an easy two points, but the money line really doesn't allow for a play on the side. The Under is a better call anyway as this should be a low-scoring game. 

The Kings are not a good team. They've been residing at the bottom of the Pacific Division most of the year and their 52 points are a Western Conference low. They've been outscored by 39 goals, which is the second worst differential in the entire league. They are particularly weak on the goal scoring side of the ledger where they rank 30th (next to last) at just 2.39 per game. Strangely though, it's not been goal scoring that has hurt the team during the current five-game losing streak. They've actually scored 15 goals during that time. But they've also given up 22.

I don't see the Kings scoring three times tonight as Nashville is a top four team in goals allowed and #2 when factoring in only home games. Furthermore, the Kings' scoring average drops slightly on the road. The only prior meeting this season was played here in Nashville and saw the Preds win 5-3. But that was three months ago. Before busting loose for five goals in Dallas Tuesday, the Preds had totaled just six goals in their previous three games combined. 8* Under Kings/Predators

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): This is a really big game for the Maple Leafs, who have fallen into third place in the Atlantic. Look for it to be a battle w/ Boston the rest of the way for 2nd place, which is of course key considering whomever finishes 2nd will have home ice advantage in the 1st round of the playoffs. The task ahead of the Leafs was made a little tougher last night when Boston won in Vegas. They now trail the red-hot Bruins (who are 9-0-1 L10 games) by four points. That makes tonight a virtual "must win." Coming off B2B losses, I think they get the job done. 

Over in the Metro, Washington finds itself also jockeying for playoff positioning. Unlike Toronto, finishing first in the division is still in play for the Caps. They enter the day three points behind the first place Islanders, but this is a somewhat challenging spot from a scheduling perspective. The team is playing its fifth straight road game and the last three all came out on the West Coast. Granted, they've had two days off, but that scenario finds them at only 4-4 SU for the year. Toronto just wrapped up its own long road trip (six games) and will be quite happy to be back on home ice.

This is the third meeting of the season between the two clubs. Toronto has taken the first two, rather convincingly, 4-2 and 6-3. While both teams are in the top 10 in scoring, the Maple Leafs look to have a substantial edge defensively. Washington is in the bottom third in goals allowed (22nd ) while Toronto is a solid 9th. Not many teams in this league rank in the top 10 in both goals scored and allowed. There was no shame in their last loss as it came against the hottest team in the league (St. Louis) and they still earned a point. The Capitals have posted B2B wins only one time over the last month and that came in a pair of home games, both of which were against lesser opponents. 8* Toronto