Handicapper Brandon Lee

PICK - West Virginia Mountaineers +6.5
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 415

I know we could have got a better number with the Mountaineers earlier in the week, but I still think there's a ton of value with West Virginia catching almost a touchdown against Oklahoma State. 

There's a lot of crazy shit that happens out of the gate, but few things stood out more to me than how bad the Cowboys looked in a 16-7 victory over Tulsa. It didn't help that starting quarterback Spencer Sanders got hurt and had to leave the game, but what's the excuse for how bad Chuba Hubbard was against a Tulsa defense that only brought back 4 starters.

Keep in mind Cowboys had over 500 yards vs the Golden Hurricane last year and Hubbard rushed for 256 yards on 32 attempts (8.0 ypc). 

Hubbard only had 93 yards on 27 attempts (3.4 ypc) against Tulsa this time around and needed a big 4th quarter to even come close to 100 yards. 

To me the offensive line wasn't up to par for Oklahoma State and that's likely to fix itself. I also don't think Sanders plays (this line wouldn't be what it is if he was playing). I just feel the Cowboys are not close to the No. 15 team in the country. 

West Virginia played a cupcake in their opener against Eastern Kentucky, but were dominant in route to a 56-10 win. They had a 624 to 206 edge in total yards and had 42 points by the half. I like their head coach Neal Brown and they had a lot of experience back with 14 returning starters. They might make a bigger jump than expected in year two under Brown. I like them to win this game. Give me the Mountaineers +6.5! 

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50* VA TECH/NC STATE *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Virginia Tech -6.5) 

I love the value here with the Hokies laying less than a touchdown at home against the Wolfpack. I don't know if it's the fact that NC State put up 45 points in last week's season opener against Wake Forest, but I don't know what the books are seeing that makes them think the Wolfpack can make a game of this. 

NC State had 270 yards on 49 rushing attempts against the Demon Deacons. They aren't going to sniff those kind of numbers against the Hokies. Virginia Tech has 10 returning starters on a defense that only gave up 139 ypg last year. I know Bud Foster is gone, but the defense should be improved. 

I also think you got to look at how much better the offense was last year once Hendon Hooker took over at QB. They put up 34.3 ppg in his 8 starts and he completed 61% of his attempts with a 13-2 TD-INT ratio. 

Hokies should have a field day here offensively against a NC State defense that allowed 42 points to Wake Forest. The same WF team that had 3 points thru 3 quarters the previous week against Clemson. Give me the Hokies -6.5! 

50* MISS ST/LSU NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Mississippi State +17) 

I will gladly take the 17-points with Mike Leach and Mississippi State against LSU. Last year was something special, but I'm just not buying the Tigers being anywhere close to what they were given what they lost. LSU has just 8 starters back from their title team. 

Not only do they have to replace the Heisman winner in Joe Burrow, but WR Justin Jefferson and RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire both were 1st round picks in the NFL draft. It's not just the players either, LSU lost their passing game coordinator in Joe Brady and one of the best defensive coordinators coordinators in the country in Dave Aranda (head coach at Baylor). 

Say what you want about Leach, the guy knows how to coach offense and his teams at Washington State always seemed to be better than expected. I can think back to 2018 when they had only 10 starters back and went 11-2. I think he can do wonders with new quarterback K.J. Costello, who transferred in from Stanford. I also think the defense will be able to hold its own. It wouldn't shock me at all if the Bulldogs won this game. Give me Mississippi State +17! 

40* TENNESSEE/S CAROLINA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Tennessee -3) 

I think we are getting a gift with the Volunteers only laying a field goal on the road against South Carolina. If there's a team that no one is talking about that could make some series noise in the SEC this year, I think Tennessee has to be at the top of that list. 

Sure the expectations are high, but no one is giving this team a shot at winning the East. It's all Georgia and Florida. I'm not saying they will, but they beat Georgia last year and played Florida tough. 

Tennessee is now in year three under Jeremy Pruitt and will have 17 returning starters. With a healthy Jarrett Guarantano at quarterback, the offense should take a huge jump this year. As for the defense, it's only gotten better since Pruitt arrived. Vols allowed 27.9 ppg in his first year with only 6 starters back and 21.7 ppg last year with only 5 starters back. 

South Carolina went just 4-8 last year and should be improved, I don't think they are anywhere close in terms of talent. I also think it's a big deal that Williams-Brice has a fan limit on games. Give me the Volunteers -3! 

40* LOUISVILLE/PITT NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Louisville +3) 

I think this is a prime spot to jump on the Cardinals after a disappointing showing at home against Miami. A lot of people were laying the -2.5 with Louisville in that game. Including myself.  It can be hard to back the same team that just cost you money the week before, especially when it never felt like Louisville was the right team the entire way.  

Cardinals took a 3-0 lead, but quickly fell behind 14-3 by the end of the 1st quarter. They would get it down to 7 twice in the 3rd quarter, only to give up a TD in a matter of seconds. First they gave up a 75 yard run, then it was a 75 yard pass.  I’m not about to say Louisville should have won that game. Even with a 516 to 485 edge in total yards and 29-19 advantage in first downs, Miami was the better team in that game.  

I do think Louisville hurt themselves in that game. Not finishing drives early and they were -3 in the turnover department. I just think Scott Satterfield and that staff will have the players full attention in practice.  I said this earlier in the season, the Cardinals have a bit time talent at quarterback in Malik Cunningham. They also got some really good playmakers at running back and receiver.  

Pittsburgh was suppose to field a great defense this year, at least until they lost 2nd-Team All-American defensive tackle Jaylen Twyman and one of their top secondary players in Damarri Mathis. Instead of 7 starters back they only return 5 and the loss of Twyman is big.  I get the defense shutout Austin Peay in their opener and held Syracuse to 10 points and 171 yards, but that’s nothing to be excited about. This is a massive step up in competition for them and we just saw what Louisville can do against a great defensive team. 

 I don’t love what I see out of the Pitt offense, especially given who they have played. While the Panthers are averaging 137 yards/game on the ground, they only managed 3.5 yards/carry. I think Louisville can really make them one dimensional and I just don’t see Pitt being able to keep pace. Give me the Cardinals +3.  

40* GEORGIA TECH/SYRACUSE CFB VEGAS INSIDER (Georgia Tech -7.5) 

The fact that Georgia Tech is laying more than a touchdown on the road against the Orange, tells you everything you need to know about how little the books think of this Syracuse team. 

I think a lot of people are going to look at this line and be inclined to take the points. Not me. As painful as it was to watch Georgia Tech commit turnover after turnover in their failed attempt to cover against UCF, they are 100% the better team in this matchup. 

Syracuse hung around at UNC in their opener, but the wheels fell off in the 2nd half and the Tar Heels wound up winning and covering 31-6. The Orange were able to cash in a cover as a 21.5-point dog against Pitt, but that was a lot more lopsided than the final. Panthers had a 342-171 edge in total yards 

I don't think Georgia Tech is getting enough credit for how good they have been given they had to start out the year against FSU and UCF. As long as they don't turn it over 5 times like they did against the Knights, I think the Yellow Jackets win here by double-digits without much problem. Give me Georgia Tech -7.5!