Handicapper Big Al McMordie Free Sports Picks

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Arizona/Washington game.  Washington comes into this game off 4 straight offensive performances in which it tallied more than 40 points.  But I expect the sledding to be more difficult for Washington on Saturday night in Tucson, as Arizona's giving up just 16 ppg, and all four of its games have gone Under the total (by an average of 15 ppg).  The Wildcats have also gone Under 11-5 as a Pac-12 home underdog, while Washington's gone Under 12-6 as a Pac-12 road favorite.  This will be a relatively low scoring game.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Texas State/Southern Miss game.  Last season, the Golden Eagles defeated the Bobcats, 20-14, and the game sailed under the total.  I expect another relatively low scoring game in Hattiesburg on Saturday afternoon, as Southern Miss will be looking to bounce back off its upset loss last week, where it gave up 44 to Arkansas State.  The Golden Eagles are 11-2 under off an upset loss as a road favorite.  And they're also 12-1-1 under the total after allowing 44+ points, including 8-0 under their last eight.  Take the UNDER.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Under in the Colorado/USC game.  After scoring 45, 36 and 43 points to open its 2023 season, Colorado hit a brick wall on offense last week, and scored just 6.  And its touchdown came with just 2:51 left in the game.  The Buffs did give up 35 first-half points, but just 7 in the 2nd half as Oregon relaxed its offense.  I expect more of the same from Colorado in this game vs. USC, as USC should break out to a healthy lead, and then take its foot off the gas in the 2nd half.  Take the UNDER.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers + the points over Georgia Southern.  Coastal Carolina was upset, 30-17, by Georgia State, in Conway, last Saturday.  But off that upset loss, we'll take the home dog, as Sun Belt Conference home favorites have gone 10-27-1 ATS vs. foes off upset losses.  Additionally, Georgia Southern is a poor 1-9 ATS its last 10 vs. foes off upset defeats.  Take Coastal Carolina + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles + the points over Texas State.  The Bobcats come into this game off a 35-24 home win vs. Nevada.  Unfortunately, Texas State is a terrible 5-24 SU and 9-19-1 ATS off a win.  Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles suffered an upset loss, 44-37, at Arkansas State.  But they've cashed 73% in Hattiesburg the last 42 years off an upset loss vs. a foe off a win.  Grab the points with Southern Miss.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Massachusetts Minutemen over Arkansas State.  UMass opened its 2023 season with an upset win at New Mexico State, but has dropped its last four games to fall to 1-4.  They'll welcome the Red Wolves to Amherst, and we'll take Don Brown's men on Saturday afternoon to snap their losing streak.  Arkansas State upset Southern Miss, 44-37, as a 7-point home dog last week, and it's a dreadful 1-9 SU and 2-7-1 ATS on the road off an upset win as a 4-point (or greater) underdog.  Moreover, that Red Wolves victory has triggered a negative 54-101 ATS system of mine which goes against Arkansas State this week.  Take UMass.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Notre Dame.  The Dukies are 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS under 2nd year coach, Mike Elko, including 7-0 ATS their last seven.  On Saturday, Elko will match up against the team for which he served as defensive coordinator in 2017.  Duke comes into this game with a 4-0 record, and is outscoring its opposition by 28.5 ppg.  Notre Dame suffered a horrible loss last Saturday night at South Bend, when they gave up a touchdown to Ohio State with 1 second left in the game.  The Irish are a soft 61-81-2 ATS off a loss, and 3-8 ATS as road favorites vs. .857 (or better) foes.  That doesn't bode well for Notre Dame.  Nor does the fact that home dogs of more than 3 points, with scoring margins greater than 28 points, have covered 63 percent of non-conference games over the past 44 seasons.  Take Duke + the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt/Missouri game UNDER the total.  The Tigers have gone 51-29-1 UNDER in their last 81 conference games, including 8-1-1 UNDER their last 10.  Likewise, Vanderbilt has gone UNDER 48-28 its last 76 conference games.  And eight of the last nine meetings between these rivals has gone UNDER the total.  Additionally, the UNDER falls into totals systems of mine that have records of 103-56, 140-87, and 65-38.  Take the Commodores and Tigers Under the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Auburn.  The Bulldogs have been installed as a double-digit road favorite at Auburn, and we'll lay the points with Kirby Smart's men, as it falls into Georgia's best point spread range.  The Bulldogs are an eye-popping 29-1 straight-up, and 24-6 ATS when priced from -7 to -20 points, including 10-0 SU/ATS their last 10.  Additionally, Georgia is 66-39 ATS on the road vs. winning foes, and 11-2 ATS its last 13 vs. Auburn (including 6-0 ATS since Dec 2017).  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the South Alabama Jaguars + the points over James Madison.  The Dukes return home following three straight road wins (including ATS wins in the last two), and have been installed as a favorite vs. the 2-2 Jaguars.  We played against South Alabama last week, and got the $$$ with Central Michigan, which upset the Jags, 34-30, as a 16.5-point favorite.  But off that huge upset loss, we'll take the Jaguars to bounce back in Harrisonburg on Saturday.  Indeed, .500 (or better) underdogs have covered 78% since 1980 vs. conference foes, if our underdog was off an upset non-conference loss as a 16-point (or greater) favorite.  That bodes well for South Alabama.  As does the fact that it has covered 60% off a straight-up loss, if its opponent was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.