Handicapper Ben Burns

I'm playing on TAMPA. Hill showed a lot of improvement in his second start. While he did allow four runs, he also had 7 K's against 0 walks, while giving the Rays six complete innings against a tough Yankee lineup. He only gave up four hits. Lyles gave up three runs in 4 1/3 innings last time out, walking more than he struck out. While this season's numbers look respectable so far, keep in mind that he was 1-6 with a 7.02 ERA last season. We have to go back a number of years but Lyles' lone start against Tampa resulted in a 7-5 loss  for Lyles' team (Houston) while Hill's lone start against Texas resulted in an 8-1 win for Hill's team. I say the Rays bounce back and salvage the series split. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Enough's enough. The Braves are too good to keep losing and it ends right here. Atlanta is 32-20 its last 52 against southpaws. Over that span, the Braves are 42-25 in day games. During the same period, Miami is just 29-46 when playing during the afternoon. Anderson, who had a 1.95 ERA last season, last saw the Marlins on 10/7/20. In that game, he recorded 8 K's against only three hits and one walk, while tossing 5 2/3 shutout innings. Atlanta won 2-0. Rogers faced the Braves here last September. The Marlins gave him a 3-0 lead in the top of the first and he promptly gave up four runs in the bottom of the innings. The Braves ended up winning that one and I say they find a way to get it done again this afternoon. 

I'm playing on BOSTON. The Islanders have had their number so far this season, as the Bruins are just 0-3-2 (0-5 vs. the ml) in five meetings. Only one of those came here at Boston though and that one went to OT. That's noteworthy as the Islanders are much better at home than they are on the road. Indeed, they're 18-2-2 (18-4) at home but 9-9-2 (9-11) on the road. In fact, they only average 2.2 goals per road game, while giving up 2.5. The Bruins, meanwhile, outscored teams by an average of 2.9 to 2.7, here at Boston. Enough's enough, the Bruins need to beat this team. Venue in their favor and Rask back between the pipes, I expect them to do so tonight. 

I'm playing on GSW/Clev OVER the total. When these teams met out West, the O/U line was 227.5 and they combined for 227. The Cavs only managed 98 though, as scoring on the road has been tough for them this season. Playing at home, when they average a lot more ppg (108.4) than they do on the road, the Cavs should more effectively contribute to tonight's combined total. Note that the Cavs also allow more ppg at home than they do on the road. Additionally, note that when these teams met here last season, the O/U line was 223.5 and they combined for 243. The Warriors put up 131 while the Cavs averaged 112. Off an impressive 147-point effort last night, the Warriors are again seemingly firing on all cylinders. They're averaging 123.4 ppg their last five. While the Cavs shut down offensiely challenged Charlotte last night, a game which stayed below the total, their previous five games had all finished above the number. I'm expecting another high-scoring affair, the OVER moving to 7-2-1 the past 10 times that the Cavs checked in off a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Sox continued their roll yesterday as they took both games in the double-header. This afternoon, Pineda on the mound, I expect the Twins to finally cool them off. Here's what I said prior to Pineda's last start, when I successfully played on the 'under:'  "I remember sitting in the stands at Safeco, amost exactly a decade ago, watching Pineda pitch against the Twins. A young Pineda pitched well for the Mariners, on that spring night in 2011. Seattle would win 5-2. At the time, the 22-year old Pineda had been the AL Rookie of the Month in April.He ended up striking out seven, without walking any, while lowering his ERA to 2.45. Now, a decade later, Pineda is still getting it done. He had a 3.38 ERA in 2020 and he tossed five shutout innings in this season's first start. In parts of three seasons with the Twins, he's got a solid 3.80 ERA. Facing the team he started with is always special and I expect the veteran Pineda to pitch well again. Pineda may not get much run support though ... " Sure enough, Pineda came through with a quality start. He tossed six innings, allowing two runs, on just four hits. He struck out six without walking a batter. He's not got a 1.64 ERA. Pineda should get more run support today as Richards has a 10.29 ERA through two starts. While he's obviously better than those numbers suggest, he's far from unhittable. Twins bounce back.