Handicapper Ben Burns

I'm playing on WINNIPEG. Home ice hasn't meant much in this series, this season. The road team has won both meetings. The Jets won 3-2 here early in the season while the Hawks won 4-1 at Winnipeg, in December. Overall, however, the Jets have dominated the Hawks, regardless of venue the past couple of seasons. They're 6-1 the past seven meetings, 3-0 their last three here at Chicago. Off a game yesterday, their fourth straight win, the Hawks could be a little complacent. That absolutely shouldn't be the case for the Jets, as they've dropped three of four and got embarrassed by a 7-1 score in their last game. They're 28-15 (+12.1) the past couple of seasons, after scoring one goal or less in their previous game, a dominant 8-1 their last nine in that situation. Expect them to be the hungrier team, bouncing back with an important win. 

I'm playing on SIENA. While the Saints have cost me a couple of times of late, I'm willing to give them another shot this afternoon. Indeed, this is a Niagara team which they should match up very well against. Note that Siena won both 2019 meetings, a 7-point win here, a 9-point win at home. Niagara is 5-8 ATS the past couple of season as a home underdog of six or less. Siena scores 72.2 ppg and allows 73.4. Not good but much better than Niagara which scores only 66.8 while allowing 75.7. Look for a determined Siena team to improve to 12-8 ATS, excluding pushes, its last 20, when off two or more consecutive losses. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. After winning with the Wildcats several times earlier, they've cost me lately. I'm going to give them another chance today, however, as this is a team which they should hammer. While the points might look tempting, consider that Fordam is 2-5 ATS (1-6 SU) the past seven times it was a home underdog in the +6.5 to +9.5 range. Going back further finds it at just 10-23-1 ATS (4-30 SU!) in that situation. Indeed, being a home underdog in this range has not been kind to the Rams. A look at recent meetings shows that Davidson has won by 25, 10, 24, 30 and 18. All double-digit wins. Expect another this afternoon. 

I'm playing on Indiana/Denver UNDER the total. These teams played a high-scoring game when they met at Indiana, on 1/2. However, with this evening's rematch being played at Denver, I'm expecting a considerably lower-scoring game. Note that we're getting several extra points (line value) to work with on this O/U line than we were for that one. The Pacers don't score as many points on the road as they do at home. When playing away from Indiana, they manage a modest 107.8 ppg. That number comes at venues that aren't as difficult to score at as this one though. Denver, which has hosted a lot of teams which average more points than Indiana, allows an average of only 103.1 ppg here. Note that the Pacers have seen the UNDER go 7-3 the past 10 times that they attempted to avenge a loss where the opponent had scored 110 or more points. Last year's game here had an O/U line of 214 and finished with a final score of 102-100. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on NY. Both teams are playing well right now. The Jackets have won four straight and six of seven. The Rangers aren't far off that pace. They've won back-to-back games and four or their past five. Schedule and venue in their favor, I expect it be the Rangers who "stay hot" this evening. While the Jackets played yesterday, the Rangers have had the past couple of days off. Columbus is 3-4 in b2b situations, 18-22 the past 2+ seasons. The Rangers, already 1-0 against Columbus, have thrived against divisional opponents. They're 10-3 (+10.6) Metropolitan teams. Even still, they're still looking up at Columbus in the standings. That makes this game very important for the Rangers and I expect them to make the most of it. 

I'm playing on CAROLINA. While the Isles are going to want this one, they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Carolina is 3-1 (+1.3) when off three or more consecutive losses. Though the Isles, who lost at Washington Sat. afternoon, have had some success, when playing the second of b2b games, I'd still prefer to have had a day's worth of rest in between games. Unlike its guest, Carolina didn't play yesterday. The Canes have thrived at home and they're 12-6 when facing a team with a winning record. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to bounce back with an important two points.

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. I won with the Bruins when these teams faced each other on Thursday. However, that was at Boston. With this afternoon's rematch being played at Pittsburgh, I expect the revenge-minded Penguins to have the advantage. The Bruins are 5-6 when playing a road game with an O/U line of six or more. The Pens, on the other hand, are 12-7 at home with an O/U line of six or more. Going back further finds Pitt. at 56-36 in that situation the past 2+ seasons while Boston is 23-28 (-10.8) in road games with an O/U line of six or greater. The Pens are 15-8 (+6) in the revenge role. I say, its payback time. 

I'm playing on GB/SF UNDER. The 49ers have been a dominant defensive team all season. Last week, they held the Vikings to 10 points for the entire game. When these teams met earlier, the Packers didn't score a single point in the first half. For the season, SF is allowing only 8.4 points, here at home, in the first half. Green Bay has also been playing very well defensively. Last week, the Pack held Seattle to only three first half points. Overall, SF allows 18.8 ppg while GB allows 19.8. The UNDER is 3-1 when the Packers were underdogs and each of their past two road games fell below the total. I expect both teams to look to establish the run early, helping to chew up the clock and for that to lead to a low-scoring affair.

I'm playing on KC. The Titans have certainly been impressive. First, they knocked off New England, a top defensive team. Next, they crushed Baltimore, a top offensive team. Obviously, Henry has been an absolute beast. I believe that the Chiefs are a different animal though. Mahomes has been here before and he's peaking at the right time. The Chiefs fell behind 24-0 out of the gate last week and they didn't even bat an eye. By halftime, they were up by four. By the end of the game, they won by 20. Yes, they ended the game on a 51-7 run. Thats absolutely dominant. The Titans haven't fallen behind. So, thats allowed them to keep running Henry the entire game. However, when the Chiefs get up double-digits, as I expect them to do, its going to be a lot harder for the Titans to stick with the running game. While both teams played last week, the Chiefs played at home, while the Titans were on the road. The previous week, the Chiefs had a much-needed bye while the Titans were again on the road. That extra rest and not having to play on the road will help the Chiefs here. Indeed, this is the Titans fourth road game in four weeks. That can and will take a toll. KC hasn't been on the road since before Christmas. The Titans are 0-2 ATS when off a double-digit win as an underdog. Going back further finds them at 6-17-3 ATS in that situation. The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS as home favorites. Yes, the Titans beat them earlier. But the Chiefs are also 3-0 SU/ATS their last three in the revenge role, 7-3 SU/ATS their last 10. They're 15-5-1 ATS off a double-digit win. Expect another double-digit victory.