Handicapper Ben Burns

I'm playing on LA/GS UNDER the total. This total has climbed from its opening number. While I obviously respect Curry and co, I believe we're getting solid value with the UNDER. The last two times that the Clippers played here, the O/U lines were 229.5 and 230. Those games finished with combined scores of 220 and 209. Including those results, the UNDER is 17-9-1 the past 26 times that the Warriors faced a divisional opponent. During the same stretch, the UNDER is also 20-12 when the Clippers faced a divisional opponent. While the Warriors are still without Thompson, the Clippers are without Leonard. LA lost Beverly, a strong defender. However, the Clippers picked up Bledsoe and he's a solid off-the-ball defender. I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing SJSU on the moneyline. The line has come down on the Spartans and that has led to the ML price also dropping. I believe that's providing us with very fair value. There's still a considerable gap between these teams, in my opinion. Keep in mind that the Spartans were laying -16 when they faced UNLV last year. They won by 17. Most of those SJSU players returned. Yes, the venue has now changed. The Rebels have been terrible at home for years though and they're just 2-10 SU their last 12 here. While the Spartans are only 1-2 ATS as favorites, they're 3-0 SU in those games. Going back a bit further finds them at 9-2 SU their last 11, when laying points. Going back still further finds the Spartans at 30-11 SU their last 41, when favored in the 3.5 to 10 range. While they've come close a couple of times, the Rebels have yet to win a game this season. Remember, they were 0-6 last year, too. I don't see that elusive victory happening tonight. Spartans win. 

I'm playing on Denver/Clev. UNDER the total. You probably have heard that Mayfield is out and Keenum is in. While the veteran backup is capable, he hasn't started in some time and some of his weapons are banged-up. The Browns scored only 14 points last week; the second time in three games that they managed just 14 points. Denver has its own issues though. The Broncos have averaged less than 17 ppg their past three games. On the other side of the ball, at 18.3, Denver ranks #4 in terms of points allowed per game. The Broncos also rank #4 in terms of yards allowed per game. Last week notwithstanding, this is still a stingy Cleveland defense. In fact, the Browns are still #2 in the entire league, in terms of yards allowed per game. Only Buffalo allows less. While the Broncos gave up 34 points last week, the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 the past five times that they allowed 30 or more, in their previous game. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on WINNIPEG. After a disappointing end to last year, the Jets were hoping to get off to a fast start to this season. That hasn't happened, as they've dropped their first few games. The first of their losses came at the hands of these same Ducks. That first meeting was at Anaheim though; all Winnipeg's lossses have been on the road. Playing at home, I expect a huge effort from the highly motivated and revenge-minded Jets. The Jets are a profitable 38-32 (+8.9) the past 70 times that they were off three or more consec. losses. During that time, they're also a lucrative +11.4 net units, after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. The Jets know that they'll face the Ducks, yet again, at Anaheim, in less than a week. Playing their home opener, expect them to dig deep and come away with the victory, improving to 13-7 their last 20, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 5.5.