Handicapper Ben Burns

I'm playing on Cincinnati/Clev OVER the total. This line started out low and then came down even further. With all due respect to the starters, I feel that its now too low and providing us with excellent value. Castillo can be nasty but he wasn't too good last time out. He gave up five earned runs, on eight hits, through six innings. Meanwhile, Carrasco got taken deep three times in his last trip to the mound. Carrasco has made five starts vs. the Reds. All five have produced a minimum of eight combined runs, four of them reaching double-digits. In fact, those five games averaged more than 14 runs. Don't be surprised when the bats finally come to life, sending the final combined score above the low number. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. The Mavs figure to be motivated for this one; they're 11-6 ATS when facing a team which defeated them on their home floor in the previous matchup. While I like the Mavs to win outright, getting points in what may well be a close game is attractive. Consider that all three of Dallas' games thus far have been decided by four or fewer points. Meanwhile, LA has seen two of its three games decided by a single bucket. Speaking of the Clippers, they're still playing without Beverly and Harrell, both key players. Look for the revenge-minded Mavs to take advantage. 

I'm playing on SF/Colorado OVER the total. While there may be some storms and a possible delay, they're currently projecting to get this game in and conditions should be favorable for hitting, assuming that they do. Indeed, we should see plenty of runs at Coors this afternoon. While he's off to a strong start, two of Freeland's last three starts against SF have produced 11 or more runs, those three games averaging 14 runs. Expect more of the same this afternoon. 

I'm playing on NO/Sacramento OVER the total. We should see plenty of points in this one. The last three meetings had 232, 262 and 239 points. The Pelicans allow 116.8 ppg and the Kings have seen the OVER go 16-8-1 the last 25 times that they faced a team which allowed 106 or more points per game. Yes, the Kings last game was a little lower-scoring. However, in their first two games here, they allowed 129 and 132 points, respectively. Look for Thursday's slate to start with offensive fireworks. 

I'm playing on INDIANA. The Suns have gotten off to a great start here. I believe it comes to an end here though and that the Pacers, who have also gotten off to a great start of their own, are favored for good reason. In fact, that great start for the Suns has worked in our favor, keeping this line a little lower than it could easily have been. Remember, the Pacers are 42-26 while the Suns are 29-39. The Suns allow 113.9 ppg while the Pacers allow just 107.5. Speaking of those records, the Suns are still 10-20 SU their last 30 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Pacers are 31-9 SU (24-14-2 ATS) their last 40 against sub-500 teams. The Pacers won by 25, at Phoenix, in this season's earlier meeting, holding the Suns to a mere 87 points. I expect another win and cover this afternoon. 

I'm playing on Vancouver/Minnesota UNDER the total. With the series now tied 1-1 and the intensity already high, I expect goals to be few and far between in Game 3. We saw that in yesterday's games, the majority of them finishing with five or fewer goals. The Wild are a stingy team which limits scoring chances. The last time the series was tied (0-0) the final score was 3-0. Expect a low-scoring affair and don't be surprised if one of the goalies comes away with another shutout.