Handicapper Ben Burns

These teams have been here before. In 2014, off a 4-2 win, the Pens had a 3-1 series lead over the Rangers. The Rangers rallied to force a Game 7 though. Once there, they completed the comeback. History is on the verge of repeating itself. Once again, the Rangers have rallied from a 3-1 deficit to force a Game 7. Momentum on their side and playing on home ice, I like their chances advancing. The Pens, who may again be without Crosby, are 24-20 on the road. The Rangers are 29-15 here at MSG. Note that the Rangers are also 21-11 (+10.2) on the season, when off a win of two or more goals. Consider NY

I'm playing on TEXAS. After dropping the first two games of this series, I expect the Rangers to be "all business" this afternoon. I also expect Martin Perez to provide them with an advantage on the mound. Perez has quietly been pitching extremely well. Last time out, he allowed only one run through 6 1/3 innings. Through six starts on the season, averaging nearly six innings per, he's got a stellar 2.10 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. In his three daytime starts, his WHIP dips to a dominant 0.76. Speaking of "dominant," his ERA is now 0.89 over his past three starts. Over that 20+ inning stretch, he allowed only two combined earned runs. It's also worth noting that Perez hasn't allowed a single home run this entire season. He'll face a Boston team which is just 3-9 the past 12 times it was off a victory and only 46-54 its last 100 against southpaws. Expect the Rangers to bounce back.

I'm playing on COLORADO. In his last home start, Gomber allowed only two runs through 6 2/3 innings. The Rockies won 5-2. Gomber should receive even more run support this afternoon. Yesterday, I mentioned that the Rockies pound left-handers. They jumped all over Hernandez en route to scoring 10 runs. They'll face another southpaw here and I expect another big day. Lynch has a 4.91 ERA through three road starts. Last time out, he walked four in 3 2/3 innings. The Royals are 7-13 the last 20 times that they allowed double-digits in runs in their previous game, 1-6 their last seven in that situation. Rockies roll, again. 

I'm playing on Pitt/NY UNDER the total. All three of yesterday's Game 7's finished comfortably below the total. Those matchups had previously been high-scoring but yesterday the scores were 3-2, 2-1 and 2-0. I expect a similar result in this one. These teams have been here before. In 2014, off a 4-2 win, the Pens had a 3-1 series lead over the Rangers. The Rangers rallied though, staying alive with a 5-1 win over their own. By the time they reached Game 7, the scoring dried up, the final score was 2-1. I expect history to repeat itself in the form of another low-scoring final game. 

I'm playing on Dallas/Calgary UNDER the total. This has been the one series which has actually resembled playoff hockey. Prior to yesterday, when all three Game 7's finished below the total, the other matchups had been flying over the total throughout the first round. That hasn't been the case in this series though. In this series, no game has finished with more than six goals. Scores have been 1-0, 2-0, 4-2, 4-1, 3-1 and 4-2. A closer look shows that the three lowest scores (1-0, 2-0 and 3-1) were the three games which were played here at Calgary. That's an average of only 2.33 goals in the games played here. In a winner-take-all situation, as we saw yesterday, I'm expecting goals to be hard to come by. Look for another low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on SF/STL OVER the total. Wainwright has been fortunate to have faced a number of sub-500 teams thus far. His first six opponents have included the Reds, Pirates, Dbax, Marlins, Royals and Brewers. Only the Brewers and Dbax have winning records. Of those teams, only the Brewers are in the top half of the league in terms of runs scored; they hit Wainwright hard, too. In 4 1/3 innings against them, he allowed eight hits and four earned runs. Now, he faced a SF team which ranks 4th in the majors in terms of runs scored. Prior to getting blanked yesterday, the Giants had scored 8, 9, 7 and 8 runs in their previous four games. Of course, the Cards can hit, too. They've got a loaded lineup and rank in the top half of the league in most offensive categories. While Rodon is tough, two of his last three starts have reached double-digits. Going back further shows that nine of his past 12 starts have finished with at least seven combined runs. Don't be surprised when this one proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. It's hard to beat the defending champs in a Game 7. Just ask the Toronto Maple Leafs. Homecourt hasn't meant much in this series. Yet, we're getting a handful of points with the Bucks, due to the game being played at Boston. In a game which could easily come down to the wire, I feel that's providing us with excellent value. The Bucks have been every bit as good on the road, as they have at home, all season. They average 114.6 ppg on the road. That's (slightly) more than they average at home and it's also more than the Celtics average here at Boston. The Bucks are 9-6-1 ATS (13-3 SU) the past 16 times that they were off a double-digit loss. Even better, they're 7-1-1 ATS (8-1 SU) the past nine times that they were tied in a playoff series. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on PHOENIX. While they failed to close things out in Dallas, this what the Suns worked so hard for during the regular season. The chance to play this game on their home floor. I like that the teams play with two day's rest in between game. Other than the first game, where they both had some rest before (Suns won and covered) each other game has had one day's worth of rest in between games. Therefore, it's worth noting that the Suns are 14-1 SU and 9-5-1 ATS the past 15 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. Even better, they're 17-4 ATS (18-3 SU) the past 21 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. It's tough to beat this team twice in a row. Already 3-0 SU/ATS when tied in a series, expect the Suns to rise to the occasion with another big win and cover.