Handicapper Ben Burns

I'm backing STRICKLAND in the main event. Hall has fared well as an underdog recently but I believe that this is a very favorable matchup for Strickland. Hall is 36 years old and has nine losses. While he's got some impressive KO's over his career, ,many of his 17 wins are suspect. Strickland, 30, is going to come right after him. He won't give Hall any room to work. Welterweight didn't go that well for him but Strickland is undefeated in the middleweight division. He's 5-1 as a favorite in the UFC. While I feel Strickland can knock out, or outpoint Hall, he also has the option to take him to the ground. In addition to having an edge in takedowns and takedown defense, Strickland also lands 5.34 significant strikes per minute, as compared to 3.34 per minute for Hall. No upset for Hall this time. 

I'm playing on SD. The Rockies scored the upset yesterday. Don't expect it to happen again. Even with yesterday's result, the Rockies are still just 12-39 on the road. They're 3-17 as road underdogs in the +175 to +250 range. The Padres, meawnhile, are 35-21 at home. While Marquez is certainly a capable pitcher, he's still just 2-6 (3.97 ERA) in eight road starts. On the other hand, Darvish is 5-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 0.972 WHIP in 12 home starts. The Padres were 10-2 in those games. While he hasn't been himself lately, a home date against Colorado should be just what Darvish needs to get going. Darvish's last home start against the Rockies resulted in a 7-0 shutout. He allowed just four hits and zero walks, while striking out 10. While it sounds like they'll probably be without Tatis for a couple of games, the Padres are still loaded. Look for them to bounce back, the Rockies falling to 1-12 when playing a game with an O/U line of seven or less. 

I'm playing Det/Balt OVER the total. This has been a relatively low-scoring series thus far but I see the bats coming to life today. Manning has a poor 6.00 ERA through seven starts. Three of his last five starts have reached double-digits. Means has enjoyed a good season but he's not pitching all that well at the moment. Over his past three starts, he's got an ugly 8.02 ERA. Two of those hit double-digits while the other finished with nine runs. It should be mentioned that Means has now allowed HR's in six straight starts. In fact, he allowed more than one HR in five of those. Neither bullpen inspires confidence. Baltimore relievers entered Friday with a combined 4.83 ERA, converting just 51.6% of save chances. With a combined 5.15 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, Detroit relievers are even worse. Prior to managing just three runs yesterday, the Tigers had scored 34 runs themselves in their previous four games. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Nothing like a comeback win and some bad blood to get a team going. In the end, cooler heads prevailed; Chicago realized it was unintentional. Still, the benches cleared after Abreu got hit. The Sox would rally for the victory. Momentum in their corner and the division all but officially locked up, I expect the South Siders to keep rolling this evening. Keuchel is 4-1 with a respectable 3.83 ERA in nine home starts. The Sox are 8-1 in those games. McKenzie, on the other hand, is 1-3 with a poor 5.83 ERA in seven road starts. Cleveland was just 1-6 in those games. The Sox are a dominant 19-4 as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. Expect them to improve on those stats.

The line keeps falling. Down below -150 at some shops, as of this writing, I feel we're starting to see some value with the favorite. Keep in mind that (Orion) Cosce is undefeated and looking to keep it that way. Rowe, on the other hand, has dropped three straight. Rowe has a big frame (for this division) but he's proven to be vulnerable. Cosce doesn't quit. We saw that in his comeback win against Matt Dixon. Note that Dixon had been 9-0 prior to that fight. I like Cosce's chances of winning his UFC debut and remaining undefeated. Consider Cosce. 

Did you know that Ben Burns is a PERFECT 10-0 with his 2021 college football plays? Winner #11 is ready to go ...