Art Aronson

This is an 8* play on the Seattle Mariners.

Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely feel that Ariel Miranda and the home side could/should easily be much larger ones:

Rafael Montero: He’s 1-7 with a 5.19 ERA. Montero most recently allowed three runs off seven hits over seven innings in a loss to Oakland on Sunday. Montero owns a poor 1.73 WHIP and is a terrible 0-4 with a 6.11 ERA in all night contests this season.

Miranda: He’s 7-4 with a 4.30 ERA. Miranda most recently gave up two runs off five hits and one walk while striking out four over 5.1 innings against the Yanks on Saturday. Miranda is 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA in all night games this year and 3-2 with a 3.24 ERA at home.

The bottom line: The Mets are just 23-30 (-11 units) this year following a loss, while the Mariners are 4-3 (+2 units) after getting shutout. Play on SEATTLE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals.

Both starters have been solid this year, but each is coming off a sub-par performance. We think Michael Wacha will take advantage of familiar surroundings though and get the better of Robbie Ray and the D-backs once it’s all said and done:

Ray: He’s 9-5 with a 3.15 ERA. Ray gave up five runs off six hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to the Nationals on Sunday. Ray has been better on the road than at home, but draws a tough matchup in St. Louis tonight. 

Wacha: He’s 7-4 with with a 3.93 ERA. Wacha gave up five runs off six hits over six innings in a 5-3 loss to the Cubs on Sunday (he did go on to walk zero and strike out six though.) Previous to that Wacha had won four straight behind a 1.01 ERA and 0.86 WHIP during that stretch (he’s been his best at home this year as well, 6-1 with a 2.93 ERA.)

The bottom line: These teams are moving in opposite directions, with Arizona going 8-12 (-5.5 units) in July, while St. Louis is 12-10 (+1.4 units) in July. All things considered, a great price on the home side. Play on the CARDINALS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Indians.

Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely feel that Danny Salazar and the hard-hitting visiting side could easily be much larger ones in this particular matchup:

Salazar: He’s 3-5 with a 4.79 ERA. Salazar returned from injury to make his first start since May 27th and looked sharp in allowing just a single hit while striking out eight over seven innings in a victory over the Jays on Saturday. 

Derek Holland: He’s 5-9 with a 5.12 ERA. Holland most recently allowed three runs off four hits over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Royals on Sunday. Holland has been plagued by the long-ball this year, now allowing 2.12 home runs per nine innings and while he’s been better at home (3.72) than on the road (6.27), he’s still a horrible 2-7 with a 7.23 ERA in all night games.

The bottom line: We like Salazar to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price with confidence, play on the INDIANS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Detroit Tigers.

We think this is a good spot to pull the trigger on the home dog:

Dallas Keuchel: He’s 9-0 with a 1.67 ERA. Keuchel has been out for nearly two months with a neck injury he suffered in early June. Keuchel made two rehab appearances and gave up one run over eight innings of work. Keuchel appears ready to return to form, but note that he’ll definitely be under a pitch count in his first start back.

Jordan Zimmermann: He’s 6-8 with a 5.81 ERA. Off perhaps one of his best outings of the year, Zimmermann then came back with a dud last time out, giving up five runs over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Twins on Saturday. For the most part Zimmermann has struggled this year, but note that he’s been his most solid at home by going 5-3 with a 4.31 ERA.

The bottom line: This is a solid situational play. Keuchel is under a pitch count and draws a tough matchup in his first big league start in two months. Meanwhile Zimmermann is doing everything he can to finish the season strong. We look for Zimmermann to at least match Keuchel inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the underdog. Play on the TIGERS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the New York Yankees.

Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we definitely feel that Masahiro Tanaka and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones.

Austin Pruitt: He’s 5-1 with a 6.25 ERA. He’s been elite at the Triple-A level, but owns a 6.25 ERA over 18 appearances (one start) in the majors (owns a 6.75 ERA on the road.) 

Tanaka: He’s 7-9 with a 5.37 ERA. Tanaka most recently gave up four runs off seven hits while striking out six over six innings in a sub-par outing in Seattle on Saturday (Tanaka owns a 4.75 ERA at home but is a strong 7-4 with 3.32 ERA in all night games.) 

The bottom line: Tampa is already 0-2 (-2 units) this year as a road dog in the +170 to +250 range, while New York is 4-1 (+1.5 units) in its last five as a home fav in the -170 to -250 range. Play on the YANKEES.

AAA Sports