Art Aronson

This is a 7* on DAL +1.5 (Puck Line)

The Stars have dropped two in a row in the Stanley Cup Finals. Each game saw them fall behind early. In Game 2, it was 3-0 at the end of the 1st period. But they did battle back and make that a one-goal loss. Game 3 was more lopsided. It was 5-1 after two periods and that simply is far too large of a hole to climb out of against a team like the Lightning. Dallas continues to get outshot by a large margin, but they are +3 in 3rd period goal differential for the series. The goaltending situation is something to watch due to the fact Game 5 is tomorrow so Dallas could change things up a bit and go with Ben Bishop tonight. Regardless, they have not suffered three consecutive losses since the season was paused back in March. This will be only the third time since the restart that they’ve been off back to back losses. Everyone is likely writing them off at this point, but we’ll say “no worse than a 1-goal loss here” as the Stars are going to give their best effort tonight. Play DALLAS +1.5

AAA

This is a 10* on UTSA

Middle Tennessee is off to a terrible start to the year, losing 42-0 to Army and 47-14 to Troy. We don’t think you can make this line high enough. UTSA is 2-0, having followed up a 51-48 thriller at Texas State with last week’s 24-10 win over Stephen F Austin. Not only has MTSU turned the ball over seven times, they have an unsettled QB situation and the offense is averaging just 212.5 yards/game. They have found themselves in the red zone just two times in two games! UTSA is averaging more than double the yardage of the Blue Raiders, at nearly 500 yards/game and they’ve gone 11 for 11 on red zone opportunities. This is a “makeshift” game that wasn’t even scheduled as of a week ago. UTSA’s originally scheduled opponent (Memphis) had to “pull out” due to COVID concerns. While that makes this a VERY unusual situation to handicap, we think it clearly favors the team in better form. The idea that Middle Tennessee can correct all of its issues in a short week, against an opponent they weren’t supposed to be facing, seems highly unlikely. The Roadrunners are 6-2 ATS their L8 games. Play on UTSA

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

We also like the Over in this game. Miami has shot poorly in the last two games. Each time they were below 30% on 3PA and 43% overall. They’re going to improve in those departments tonight. Bet on it. As for Boston, they’ve shot 47.6% or better each of the last three games. Gordon Hayward has returned for them. So they too could be capable of exceeding their point total from the last game. Depending on your Game 2 closing O/U line, there hasn’t been an Under in this series. Games 1, 3, 4 and all went Over by double digits. The number is just too low. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on MIAMI

With a win tonight, Miami moves on to the NBA Finals and a likely matchup with former teammate LeBron James and the Lakers. Don’t worry about the fact that the Heat are underdogs tonight. People have been underrating this team ever since the season restarted. They’ve gone 11-2 SU in the playoffs with one of those losses coming in overtime. They are also 11-2 ATS. After falling behind early in each of the first three games, Miami largely controlled Game 4 wire to wire. They did so despite shooting just 42.9% and 10 of 37 from three-point range. They’ll shoot better tonight, even as they are unlikely to get 37 points against from rookie Tyler Herro. That they continue to be the underdog is a little ridiculous and we’ll gladly take the points. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is a 10* on WAS

The Nationals aren’t going to get a chance to defend last year’s World Series Championship. That’s because they’re not going to make the playoffs. They are in last place this year and last night was another loss, this one coming at the hands of the Mets by a score of 3-2. But tonight should mark perhaps the biggest win of the season for Washington. It starts with Max Scherzer. While off a hard luck loss in his previous start, Scherzer has pitched well of late. Both runs charged to him in that last start were unearned. Before that, he had three quality starts in four tries. The Mets have been a favorite opponent of Scherzer through the years as he’s 11-5 against them with a 2.63 ERA. He even no-hit them back in 2015. We are also relishing this opportunity to fade Rick Porcello, who’s had a rough year. The Mets are just 2-9 in his starts. It hasn’t helped that they’ve scored three runs or fewer in seven of those 11 starts. But Porcello hasn’t helped himself with a 5.26 ERA. His last start was probably the best of the year, but it came at home. The Mets are 0-4 as road underdogs of +125 to +175 this season. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA