Art Aronson

This is a 10* on MIAMI

The Pistons didn’t play last night because their scheduled opponent (Washington) didn’t have enough players. Tonight they are set to face another team ravaged by COVID, Miami, who has had eight players miss the previous two games. Despite that disadvantage, the Heat hung tough in both games vs. Philadelphia. The first game went to overtime and while the second was a 17-point loss, we think they’re better than that. If there was ever a team the Heat could hope to face here, it would be Detroit, who is NOT better than its 2-9 record. Their only two wins have been by a total of eight points and in one of them, they trailed by 20+ before storming back to win in overtime. To be fair, the Pistons were expected to be the worst team in the East this year. Our view is that Miami takes this game very seriously and their skeleton crew will still be able to defeat the team with the worst record in the league. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is a 7* on CONDIT

Two veterans of the fight game square off in this fight on UFC on ABC 1. Carlos Condit is 31-13 in his MMA career, but now has a losing record (8-9) in the UFC thanks to a five-fight losing streak from 2016-18. But in his lone bout over the last two years, he rebounded to defeat Court McGee by decision last October. Condit is a decent-sized favorite here, which should tell you something, as he faces Matt Brown, who is 22-17 overall after dropping six of his last eight fights. Brown last fought in May when he was stopped by Miguel Baeza, early in the second round. It was the fourth time in his last six fights that Brown was beaten inside the distance. These two veterans should provide an entertaining fight, but we expect Condit to get his hand raised as he’s got the confidence of being off a recent win. Play on CONDIT

AAA

This is a 10* on CHATTANOOGA

This is a key battle in the Southern Conference, especially from Chattanooga’s perspective. The Mocs were 9-0, but have dropped three of five to fall into sixth place in the standings. All three losses have been by five points or less, so it’s not like they’ve played a bad game. On Wednesday, they did defeat Mercer 83-80 and now get a shot at one of the teams ahead of them in the standings, Wofford. The Terriers are also coming off a narrow win, theirs by just two points (80-78) over VMI. This will be their third consecutive road game as they also defeated NC Greensboro by three (48-45) in a much different style game from the one vs. VMI. Three road games in seven days is a tough ask in any league and considering Wofford could easily be 0-2 on this trip, we say “their time is up” today. Chattanooga is 29-14 ATS L43 as an underdog including 4-0 this year. They are a more veteran team compared to Wofford, who has failed to cover the spread off their previous four wins (were -6 vs. VMI). Play on CHATTANOOGA

AAA

This is a 10* on HAWAII

Late night in Honolulu we get Hawaii hosting Cal State Bakersfield. This will be just the fifth game of the year of the home team. The first two were against non-Division I opponents, both of whom also hailed from “the island.” Those games were played in mid-December. The Warriors finally returned to the court last weekend with a pair of games at UC Riverside. They split the pair, winning the first one by five and losing the second by two. But they covered both, as a six and five point underdog, respectively. It’s basically a pick ‘em tonight and we don’t agree with that, even though CS Bakersfield has won its last three games. One of those three wins was on the road, but overall the Roadrunners are just 2-4 away from home compared to 5-0 at home. Hawaii has the best home court advantage in the Big West and if not for a last second shot by UC Riverside in the last game, the Warriors very well could have gone on to win that game and still be undefeated. This will be Cal State Bakersfield’s 1st trip to Honolulu as a member of the Big West Conference. Play on HAWAII

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Snow is a possibility Saturday night in Buffalo, but as we’ve seen countless times before, the public often overreacts to that when it comes to betting the total. Both the Ravens and Bills can score in bunches and we don’t think the “white stuff” is going to be able to stop either team. Baltimore averages 28.7 points/game on the year. They only scored 20 last week, but had averaged 37.2 the previous five games. Buffalo averages 31.1 points/game on the year. The Ravens defense did a great job last week containing Derrick Henry, but the Bills’ passing attack may prove more difficult to contain. Josh Allen was 4th in the league in completion percentage and has been exceptional against the blitz (which the Ravens like to do), throwing a league high 17 TD passes against it. But the Bills need to be concerned about their own defense, which just allowed 472 yards to the Colts last week. They gave up 163 rushing and 309 passing. Lamar Jackson is likely to have another big game this week after running for over 100 yards vs. the Titans. Bills games are 12-4-1 to the Over this season, which is the second highest Over percentage in the league. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on GREEN BAY

This is just a bad draw for the Rams as they head to the cold of Lambeau Field in Green Bay. While their top ranked defense was able to shut down Russell Wilson and the Seahawks last week, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have the advantage of coming off a bye. The truth is Seattle’s offense had been in decline for some time. Green Bay led the NFL in points scored with Rodgers having a MVP season. He’s 6-0 ATS in his career against the Rams. Los Angeles is really banged up - on both sides of the football. Aaron Donald will play, but is less than 100 percent and no offensive line succeeded more in both pass blocking and run blocking than the Packers. Them facing an injured Donald is a big break. So is the Rams QB situation from the perspective of the Green Bay defense. John Wolford has been ruled out, which means Jared Goff and his broken thumb gets the start. Goff was not particularly effective in last week’s Wild Card win and WR Cooper Kupp is questionable to play here. This will be the Rams’ 4th consecutive big game while the Packers are rested. Teams off an upset win in the Wild Card Round have gone just 25-35 ATS in the Divisional Round. Goff has never won a game in his career when the temperature was below freezing. Don’t forget the Rams lost to the Jets last month. The Packers are simply better. Play on GREEN BAY

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