Michael Alexander

Rating: 4 Units

Charlotte ranks 22nd in the league in tempo and San Antonio ranks in the middle of the pack in that category. The Spurs are an elite defensive team and the Hornets are comfortable playing a defensive game. Charlotte prints money for under bettors (26-41 O/U) and so does San Antonio to a lesser degree (29-38 O/U). Take the under

NBA Total of the Week

Rating: 5 Units

There is a contrast of styles in this matchup. Atlanta is playing at the fourth fastest tempo in the league, while Milwaukee ranks 25th in that category. The Bucks (28-37 O/U) have been a profitable team for under bettors, but recent form suggests otherwise. Milwaukee has been torched for 129 point or more in three of their previous five games. Take the over.

Rating: 4 Units

I don’t want to lay this number as much as the next guy but we have no choice. The Wizards are in full tank mode and aren’t covering these massive underdog spots. The Celtics are healthy and need a win after back-to-back losses. Also, the Celtics waxed the Wizards by 45 points back in December. The Celtics are more of a complete team than they were a couple of months ago. You don’t see these numbers often, but I have to side with the Celtics. The Wizards just lack pride at this point and are willingly getting bent over.

Rating: 4 Units

KenPom projects 75-65 Duke (140 total) — the line at 137.5 is 2.5 points low for two efficient offenses in a championship game. Both teams combine for 163.5 PPG in the regular season — tournament pace suppression is minimal; elite defenses can coexist with scoring. Virginia's recent dominance (9-game win streak, 84-62 over Miami) — the Cavs are generating offense efficiently; Duke's injuries (Foster, Ngongba II) don't suppress scoring upside.

Rating: 2 Units

I’m on Duke here. I liked a lot of what Virginia’s done up to this point and it’s a revenge spot for Virginia who got drilled by Duke not that long ago in the lone meeting this season. However, Duke just looks more complete right now, and I think the Blue Devils win this game and get the cover with conviction. Give me Duke.

Rating: 4 Units

The total opened with the under at -105, the February 25 meeting finished at 112 combined points, and UConn's defensive identity is built to suppress exactly the kind of transition-heavy scoring that inflated the February 6 final. The under is the natural lean in a championship final played at this pace and physical intensity.

Rating: 3 Units

In my view, Vanderbilt’s pace and defensive discipline give the Commodores a real chance to stay inside the number (8.5) in this contest. The Gators have an exceptional team and arrive at this contest on a 12-game winning streak. However, the Commodores ability to potentially slow down Florida’s transition game and force more half‑court possessions could be the difference in this one. For the reasons just noted, I am backing the Vanderbilt Commodores plus the 8.5 points in this game.

Rating: 3 Units

Each of Wisconsin’s last seven day games against Top 5 AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue have produced a total of 151 or fewer points. While thirty-eight of Michigan’s last 42 day games against AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 161 or fewer points.

Rating: 2 Units

Michigan comes into this matchup on a lengthy winning streak and they only have one loss in Big Ten play, but they didn’t look great against OSU on Friday. The Wolverines are shooting 51% from the field and they have allowed 70 or fewer in four of their last five. Wisconsin is also on a nice winning streak and they have scored at least 85 points in four of their last five. The Badgers already have a win over Michigan this year and they are playing very well right now, so give me the points with Wisconsin here.

Rating: 4 Units

Tampa Bay comes into this matchup with the home ice advantage, but they have struggled over the last two weeks. The Lightning are 20-11-0 at home this year, while the Hurricanes are 17-9-4 on the road. Carolina has lost two of their last three games, but they have scored at least four goals in four of their last five.

Rating: 4 Units

The Capitals are getting the benefit of the doubt at home, as the Bruins just haven’t been close to the same team on the road. However, we’re getting plus money with the better team. We also just saw the Bruins beat the Capitals last week, 3-1. The Bruins have outscored the Capitals 6-2 in the two previous meetings this season. Again, the home/road splits favor the Caps and they’re coming off a nice win over the Sabres. Still, you make a lot of money in this business long-term if you can get the more favorable price with the better team. Give me the Bruins.