2018 Chicago Bears Season Odds & Predictions

It was a long and frustrating season for the Chicago Bears in 2017. There were moments of promise, including wins over the playoff-bound Steelers and Panthers early in the season. However, the Bears didn’t give rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky nearly enough support. In the end, the Bears finished 5-11, firing head coach John Fox after the season.

Alas, there is renewed hope in Chicago in 2018. They have a new head coach in Matt Nagy, who many believe can help Trubisky take a step forward in his development. The Bears also made an honest effort to put more pieces around their young quarterback, so much so that Chicago has become a trendy pick to be one of the NFL’s breakout teams this season. But is it realistic for the Bears to go from 5-11 to a playoff team in the stacked NFC?

Chicago Expected Win Total & Super Bowl Odds

Oddsmakers list the Bears at +11,000 to win the Super Bowl, which sounds about right. Despite some potential for a breakout year, the Bears are a long way from being a Super Bowl contender. Meanwhile, the Bears are projected to win 6.5 games in 2018. Taking the over on this mark is far more reasonable. Even mild improvement from Trubisky with better pieces around him should help the Bears to win at least two more games than they did a season ago.

Of course, we still don’t know all that much about Trubisky. He completed less than 60% of his passes with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions last season. He also had just three games where he threw for over 200 yards. It’s also important to remember that Trubisky didn’t have as much experience in college as most first-round picks, so his learning curve could be even steeper than most young quarterbacks.

In Trubisky’s defense, he had limited talent around him last year, something the Bears seem to have rectified. Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel will form Chicago’s new wide receiver tandem. Robinson has some health questions after missing most of last season, but he’s capable of being a no. 1 wide receiver. Meanwhile, Gabriel provides plenty of speed and play-making ability. The Bears are also hoping that second-round pick Anthony Miller or former first-rounder Kevin White can give Trubisky some extra weapons in his arsenal.

Tight end could also be a key position for the Bears. They signed Trey Burton over the summer, giving them an athletic option at that position. Dion Sims should also have some opportunities to catch the ball while Adam Shaheen, a second-round pick in 2017, could also work his way onto the field.

Meanwhile, the Chicago backfield is largely intact. Jordan Howard has proven to be a powerful runner who has rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons in the league. The diminutive Tarik Cohen also gives the Bears a nice change-of-pace back who can also make plays catching the ball. The Bears, however, have some questions to answer along the offensive line. Kyle Long is a Pro Bowl-caliber player but is coming back from offseason surgery. The team will also try to integrate second-round pick James Daniels into the mix. Depth could also be an issue up front.

Defensively, the Bears were much better last season than people realize. Despite the change at head coach, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio returns, so there’s every chance the Bears have another top-10 defense in 2018. The defensive line is in great shape with Akiem Hicks leading the way. Youngsters like Eddie Goldman and Jonathan Bullard also give that group plenty of upside. Playing behind that line will be inside linebacker Danny Trevathan and first-round pick Roquan Smith. With Trevathan’s experience and Smith’s star potential, the Bears should be strong up the middle.

Of course, the Chicago defense still has to answer questions with regard to rushing the passer and creating turnovers. Leonard Floyd can be that impact pass rusher, but he has to stay healthy. The Bears took a chance on Aaron Lynch and sixth-round pick Kylie Fitts to give them more pass rushers, but neither is a guarantee to work out. The Bears also re-signed Prince Amukamara and Kyle Fuller with the hope that continuity in their secondary can help lead to more turnovers.

Overall, the Bears have a decent roster. They should be solid defensively and have more than enough playmakers on offense. However, with a young quarterback that still has a lot to prove and an offensive line that has some doubts, it’s tough to see this team making the playoffs in 2018.

Bears Schedule & Game-by-Game Predictions

Date Opponent Time
Sep 9 @ Green Bay Packers 8:20 PM
Sep 17 Seattle Seahawks 8:15 PM
Sep 23 @ Arizona Cardinals 4:25 PM
Sep 30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1:00 PM
Oct 14 @ Miami Dolphins 1:00 PM
Oct 21 New England Patriots 1:00 PM
Oct 28 New York Jets 1:00 PM
Nov 4 @ Buffalo Bills 1:00 PM
Nov 11 Detroit Lions 1:00 PM
Nov 18 Minnesota Vikings 1:00 PM
Nov 22 @ Detroit Lions 12:30 PM
Dec 2 @ New York Giants 1:00 PM
Dec 9 Los Angeles Rams 1:00 PM
Dec 16 Green Bay Packers 1:00 PM
Dec 23 @ San Francisco 49ers 4:05 PM
Dec 30 @ Minnesota Vikings 1:00 PM

With just five games against teams that made the playoffs last season, the Bears have a favorable schedule ahead of them. That being said, there’s no such thing as an easy game when you went 5-11 last year, nor will anything come easy in the NFC North.

Week 1: at Packers – Loss

This is a huge opportunity for the Bears to make a statement on national TV. But Trubisky probably isn’t ready to out-play Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field.

Week 2: vs Seahawks – Win

The Bears pull off a bit of a shocker on Monday night. Trubisky’s receivers are able to create big plays against a Seattle secondary that’s not quite as good as it used to be.

Week 3: at Cardinals – Win

Fueled by the confidence of last week’s win, the Bears are able to go on the road and knock off the Cardinals behind a strong performance from their running game.

Week 4: vs Buccaneers – Loss

Trubisky is bothered by a deep and talented Tampa defensive front that puts pressure on the young quarterback all day. The Bucs force a couple turnovers that the Bears are unable to overcome.

Week 5: Bye

Week 6: at Dolphins – Loss

The week off doesn’t help as much as it should. Trubisky has a rough game on the road, and his mistakes end up costing the Bears.

Week 7: vs Patriots – Loss

By this point in the season, the Patriots have no doubt hit their groove. Good luck to the Bears trying to keep up with Tom Brady and company.

Week 8: vs Jets – Win

The Chicago defense is absolutely dominant in this game. Trubisky and the offense do their part as well, but this game is all about the defense leading the way.

Week 9: at Bills – Loss

Consistency is still tough to find for this young Bears team. The Chicago offense struggles away from home and misses out on an opportunity to build some momentum.

Week 10: vs Lions – Win

The Chicago defense stands tall against Matthew Stafford and company. In a tight game, Trubisky makes good decisions and allows his receivers to do the rest while squeaking out an important win at home.

Week 11: vs Vikings – Win

Confidence is high after last week’s win and it shows this week. The Bears don’t hold anything back against Minnesota’s intimidating defense, as Trubisky has one of his best games as a pro.

Week 12: at Lions – Loss

The quick turnaround and an early game on Thanksgiving prove to be too much for the Bears to handle. They look sluggish on both sides of the ball and can’t find a way to knock off the Lions twice in three weeks.

Week 13: at Giants – Loss

Both defenses in this game put forth strong performances. However, Eli Manning is eventually able to exploit a hole in Chicago’s defense whereas the inexperienced Trubisky can’t find a way to sustain a drive against the Giants.

Week 14: vs Rams – Win

This turns into one of the more shocking results of the season. The Chicago defense leaves no doubt that they’re one of the best in the league. They manage to slow down the Rams enough to give the Bears an upset win.

Week 15: vs Packers – Win

The Bears have come a long way since these teams met in Week 1. On a windy day in Chicago, Howard and the defense do the hard work, and they do enough to knock off Rodgers and the Packers in a defensive slugfest.

Week 16: at 49ers – Loss

Trubisky’s development over the season allows the Bears to hang close in this game. But he’s not quite at the same level as Jimmy Garoppolo, who orchestrates a game-winning drive in the 4th quarter.

Week 17: at Vikings – Loss

The Bears can’t quite pull off the sweep of the Vikings. Minnesota’s defense proves to be too much at home, as the Bears will narrowly miss out on finishing 8-8.

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