We’re down to eight teams left vying for the right to be Super Bowl 51 champions. As we enter the NFL Divisional Round of the playoffs, it’s time to take a look at the current odds and perhaps see where the betting value lies.
Below is a list of the odds for every team left. The Patriots are the odds-on favorite at +165. It makes sense because they have the easiest path. The Patriots are 15-point favorites over the Texans in the Divisional Round, while every other game has a spread of 5 points or less. The Texans are the longshots to win the Super Bowl at +8500.
Odds to Win Super Bowl 51
|New England Patriots||+165|
|Green Bay Packers||+815|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+850|
Now it’s time to pick my two favorite value plays in both conferences. While I do think the Patriots have the best chance to win the Super Bowl, it’s simply not worth the price of only +165. So you have to combine a team’s chances with their prices, and I think there are better bets out there.
Best NFC Value Bet: Atlanta Falcons +670
The Falcons just don’t get a lot of love despite being arguably the best team in the NFL. They lead the NFL in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play behind the league’s top offense at 6.7 yards per play. Their offense will be able to travel anywhere and give them a chance to win any game. And their defense played their best football down the stretch, allowing 19 or fewer points in four of their final six games.
Helping out the Falcons is the fact that they are guaranteed to be playing indoors in all three games if they make the Super Bowl. They host the Seahawks in the Georgia Dome, then likely will play the Cowboys inside AT&T Stadium. And the Super Bowl is indoors at NRG Stadium in Houston as well.
Best AFC Value Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +815
You could also make a case for the Chiefs +850 here. However, I give the Chiefs no chance of winning in New England, while I believe the Steelers have a legitimate shot to pull off that upset. The Steelers have currently won eight straight games and have outgained 10 of their last 11 opponents. Nobody is playing better than them right now.
Amazingly, last week’s 30-12 win over the Dolphins was the first time that Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell all played together in a playoff game. Having these three healthy has this offense hitting on all cylinders, and the defense is playing as well as it has all season. The Steelers are giving up just 16.6 points per game in their last eight games overall.
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