Winning Sports Picks

4* Major Big Dance *BAILOUT* on Virginia +2.5
Bottom Line: Michigan State is an outstanding team, but it hasn't seen a defense like Virginia's all season. The Cavaliers lead the nation in scoring defense with 55.5 ppg allowed, and they are excellent at frustrating teams by taking the air out of the ball on offense. Virginia is 6-0 ATS this season after 15+ games into the schedule versus elite teams that outscore the opposition by 8.0 ppg or more. It has defeated these teams by an average of 8.1 points. The Cavs are also 10-0 ATS this season after 15+ games into the schedule versus good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better. They have limited these teams to 55.5 points while defeating them by an average of 12.3 points. Playing against neutral court teams like Michigan State that average 74-78 ppg and have led their last 3 games by 5 points or more at the half has resulted in a 66-31 ATS record since 1997 if they are up against a team that allows 63 ppg or less.

5* Wiseguy Friday Big Dance *BEST BET* on Louisville -4
Bottom Line: Kentucky won 73-66 at home during the season, but the Louisville Cardinals are an impressive 37-18 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent under coach Pitino, and they have won by an average of 9.9 points in this spot. The Cards are also 9-1 ATS as a neutral floor favorite of 6 points or less or pickem over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average of 9.9 points. The Cards are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games, and I look for them to get a little revenge against their rivals tonight. Pound Louisville.

4* Major NBA Double Digit *BLOOD BATH* on Nets -9
Bottom Line: Brooklyn won the most recent matchup 89-82 at home to cover a 6.5-point spread. Now, it is laying 2.5 more points despite coming off back-to-back losses and despite Cleveland winning its last 3. That's because Brooklyn has won 11 straight at home by 11.4 points on average. Also, the Cavs are 11-26 ATS the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for a loss where they were held to 85 points or less. The Nets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games, and I expect them to continue their home dominance tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Wizards +3
Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Indiana as it hits the road following a big win over the Heat. The Pacers have lost 3 in a row and 6 of 8 on the highway. They are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall, 4-17 ATS in their last 21 road games, 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a win and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record. Washington has lost its last 2 games and has been buried twice by Indiana this season so it will be lacking no motivation. Plus, it wants to hold onto the 6th spot in the East to avoid Indiana and Miami in the first round. Pound Washington.

4* Major Big Dance Bailout on San Diego State +7.5
Bottom Line: This is a lot of points to be giving a San Diego State squad that can flat out defend, and the only reason it is getting them is because it lost to Arizona by 9 earlier this season. But, that game was played before Arizona's Ashley was lost for the season and before SDSU's Polee emerged. The Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game and 8-2 ATS this season in road/neutral court games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game. They are also 9-2 ATS in road/neutral court games after a win by 10 points or more this season. They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 versus Pac-12 opponents while the Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 versus MWC foes.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers -1
Bottom Line: Dallas has lost both meeting with the Clippers this season, and it catches them at a bad time. Off last night's ugly loss in New Orleans, LA will be out for blood. Playing against home teams in a double revenge spot has resulted in a 69-36 ATS record the last 5 seasons if the team they are out for revenge against is off an upset loss on the road. Plus, the Clippers are a perfect 9-0 ATS since Doc Rivers took over in road games following a road loss. They have won these games by an average of 9.4 points. Additionally, the Mavs are a poor 11-23 ATS as a home dog under Rick Carlisle. Pound LA.

5* Wiseguy Sweet 16 Game of the Year on Wisconsin -3.5
Bottom Line: At this stage of the game, superior defensive teams tend to make the best investments. Wisconsin is the far better defensive team in this matchup. In road/neutral court contests, Wisconsin is allowing just 64.1 ppg on 42.7% shooting. Baylor is allowing 71.2 ppg on 44.9% shooting. Baylor couldn't miss against Creighton and is getting too much respect in this one as a result. I expect Wisconsin to put the clamps on defensively, especially since it didn't defend very well against Oregon. Wisconsin is now 5-0 ATS in its last 5 against non-conference foes and 7-1 ATS in its last 8 versus Big 12 opponents. The Badgers are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA tourney games. Pound Wisconsin.

4* Major Big Dance *BLOOD BATH* on Stanford -3
Bottom Line: After back-to-back big wins over Ohio State and Syracuse, I expect Dayton to come back down to earth. Stanford's defense has been unbelievable in its first 2 tourney games. The Cardinal are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. They are 6-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive unders this season. They are 6-0 ATS in road/neutral court games after 2 straight games where they attempted 50 or less shots under Johnny Dawkins.

5* Wiseguy ESPN *BEST BET* BAILOUT on Jazz +8
Bottom Line: The Jazz will be looking to bounce back following a 114-94 home loss to Detroit. They will also be out for revenge for a pair of 10-point losses to Memphis this season. Both of those games were on the road, and I expect things to go much differently in Utah where the Jazz are 10-1 in the last 11 meetings. The Jazz are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a double-digit loss at home and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Utah is 11-2 ATS the last 2 seasons after failing to cover in 4 of its last 5 games. The Grizzlies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Utah. Pound Utah.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Wizards +2.5
Bottom Line: Washington's defense has been poor of late as it has given up 105 points or more in 4 straight games. Those were all on the road. The "D" should be much better at home where the Wizards have held their last 3 opponents to 98 points or less. The Wizards have been motivated by poor defensive efforts and are 14-4 ATS this season after allowing 100 points or more in 2 straight games. They have won these contests by an average of 4.3 points. Washington has had the last 2 days off so it should be much fresher than a Phoenix squad playing a 3rd road contest in 4 days.

5* Wiseguy CIT Game of the Year on Yale +5
Bottom Line: After upsetting Valpo on the road, Columbia took care of business at home with a win and cover against E. Michigan. Those covers set up a great wagering spot as the Lions are 0-6 ATS in home games after successfully cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games under coach Kyle Smith. Yale won the season's first matchup by 10 at home but was then crushed 62-46 at Columbia. That loss brought a 7-game win streak to an end, and the Bulldogs couldn't regain momentum in time to seriously challenge Harvard. Yale did win at Harvard this season, and that win is a clear indication of what it is capable of. I love the Bulldogs chances of revenge here as they are 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 60 points. Pound Yale.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +5
Bottom Line: The Blazers covered in Miami last night, erasing a 17-point 4th quarter deficit before LeBron James ripped their heart out. The Blazers, who are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a cover, will have a hard time pulling themselves off the floor after that heartbreaker. The Magic are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. They are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games, losing only twice by more than 5 points during this stretch. The Magic are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last 7 home games against Portland with one of these losses coming by less than 5 points. Pound Orland.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pelicans +2.5
Bottom Line: Bad spot for Brooklyn playing a 2nd road game in as many days, especially since yesterday's contest went to OT. The Nets are just 14-20 on the road this season, including 3-7 when playing without a day of rest. New Orleans hasn't quit on the season. It has won 6 of 9, including its last 2, with the most recent win coming against Miami. The Pelicans should also benefit from having had a day off prior to this contest. Home teams that shoot 45.5-47.5% and have a +/-3.0 rebounds per game margin are 74-35 ATS since 1996 when they are matched up with a team that holds opponents to 43.5-45.5% shooting and has a -3 to -5.5 rebounds per game margin. This system is 6-1 ATS this season. Pound the Pelicans.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Hawks +1.5
Bottom Line: This game is meaningful for both teams in terms of the playoff race, but the edge goes to Atlanta at home where it is 20-12 on the season. The home team has had the advantage in this series, going 3-0 in the last 3 and 9-4 in the last 13. It's also worth mentioning that the Hawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 versus Pacific division foes and 7-4 ATS this season as home dogs. The Suns have dropped 7 of 11 this season when playing on the road without a day of rest.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Mavs -4.5
Bottom Line: This game means more to a Dallas team that is sitting 7th in a tight Western Conference playoff race. Plus, Brooklyn hasn't been the same team on the road where it is 5-6 in its last 11 and averaging just 94.8 ppg in these contests. It will have a tough time keeping pace offensively against a Dallas team that is averaging 111.0 points on 50.5% shooting over its last 5 games. Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off a win of 10 points or more over a division rival has resulted in a 53-24 ATS record since 1996 if their opponent is off a home win of 10 points or more. Pound Dallas.

4* Major Big Dance *BLOOD BATH* on Tennessee -7.5
Bottom Line: The Mercer Bears fit into a negative situation today. Playing against NCAA tournament underdogs seeded 13-16 has resulted in a 44-16 ATS record the last 17 years when they check in with 4 straight victories or more. This system is 3-1 ATS in this year's Dance and 15-5 ATS the last 5 seasons.

5* Wiseguy Big Dance *BEST BET* on North Carolina +2
Bottom Line: Huge blow for ISU losing Niang to a broken foot. Ejim received Big 12 Player of the Year, but anyone who has followed the Cyclones much at all would tell you that Niang is their X-factor. His versatility and big body make him a tough matchup almost every night. Without Niang, the Cyclones find themselves at a major disadvantage in the paint. He is, without question, their best back-to-the-basket post player. I expect Carolina to win the points in the paint battle and also the free throw battle given their superior size with McAdoo, Meeks and Johnson. The other thing I like about Carolina is that it doesn't turn the ball over. That cuts down on ISUs fast-break opportunities. Paige has better than a 2-to-1 assist/turnover ratio. The Heels are 55-28 ATS under coach Williams after a stretch of committing 14 turnovers or less in 4 straight games. Pound Carolina.

4* Major Big Dance *SUREFIRE* on Kentucky +5
Bottom Line: The Wildcats are playing their best ball of the season, and they have the horses to take Wichita State down to the wire. The Shockers haven't seen this level of talent all season. The closest they came was when they faced Tennessee and that was in mid December. The Wildcats have been performing well against higher-caliber competition. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. Wichita State hangs its hat on defense, but Calipari coached teams are 24-9 ATS since 1997 in game 15 or later versus teams that hold opponents to 39% shooting or worse.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Warriors -1
Bottom Line: After losing each of the first 2 matchups of the season by 2 points, I expect Golden State to break through against the Spurs. The Warriors are 21-9 ATS when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent under coach Mark Jackson, including 11-2 ATS this season. They have won by an average of 12.8 points in these 13 contests.

4* Major NBA Non-Conference *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Grizzlies -1
Bottom Line: Memphis may not have Marc Gasol tonight, but it shouldn't matter at home where they are 8-0 in their last 8 and 14-2 in their last 16. Indiana is a very inconsistent offensive team and likely won't get much help from points off turnovers against a Memphis squad that averages only 13 turnovers per game. The Pacers are 0-8 ATS in the 2nd half of this season versus teams averaging 14 turnovers or less. They have lost to these teams by an average of 6.4 points. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a cover, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus the West and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament 3rd Round Game of the Year on Wisconsin -5
Bottom Line: Playing close to home in Milwaukee, all the red in the arena will make this feel like a home game for the Badgers. Even though Wisconsin will have the crowd behind it, this isn't a team that needs any extra help. This Wisconsin team has shown it can play any way, and that makes it extremely dangerous. Oregon is more reliant on its offense because it give up 73.8 ppg. Wisconsin allows just 63.6 ppg. The Badgers have a 6-point win over #1 overall seed Florida. They also have a 10-point win at #1 seed Virginia. They've defeated Michigan State and Michigan with the Michigan win coming on the road. That's quite a resume and Oregon's doesn't stack up. Wins over UCLA and Arizona are impressive, but they came after losing to them the first time around. Those are also conference wins, and teams are very well scouted in conference play. Wisconsin's 56-50 win over Florida and 48-38 win at Virginia is more impressive than anything Oregon has done. Oregon needs to play fast and score a lot of points to be successful. Wisconsin has shown it can win that way, but it has also shown it can take the air out of the ball. I expect it to slow Oregon down, and that spells big trouble for the Ducks. Playing neutral court favorites or pickems after 2 straight games of committing 11 or less turnovers has resulted in a 96-51 ATS record since 1997 if they are up against a team that committed 8 or less turnovers last game. Teams fitting this system have won by an average of 8.4 points. Pound Wisconsin.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +1
Bottom Line: Charlotte has been outstanding in the 2nd half of the season at home where it is on an 8-1 ATS run and outscoring opponents by 8.1 points. Plus, the Bobcats are 11-3 ATS this season as a home dog of 6 points or less, winning these games by 3.2 points on average. Portland is one of the best rebounding teams in the league but likely won't have leading rebounder LaMarcus Aldridge tonight. Besides, the Cats are 8-0 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game in the 2nd half of this season, defeating these teams by 10.8 points on average. Pound the Bobcats.

4* Major Big Dance *SUREFIRE* on Texas +5
Bottom Line: The defending national runner-up is getting a little too much respect following an impressive performance against Wofford. The Wolverines are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a cover and 1-7 ATS this season after a win by 15 points or more. The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 versus Big Ten foes. Playing any team like Texas that has gone under the total by 48 or more points in their last seven games, provided it is a non-conference matchup between major D-1 conferences, has resulted in a 33-12 ATS record the last 5 seasons.

4* Major Big Dance *SUREFIRE* on Florida -5
Bottom Line: A combination of Pitt blowing out Colorado and Florida struggling to put away Albany has created an opportunity for us to get the #1 overall seed at a good number. Florida has been an outstanding investment in the Big Dance under coach Billy Donovan. It is 26-16 ATS in the Dance under his watch, including 18-8 ATS in its last 26 NCAA Tournament contests. Pitt is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 NCAA Tourney contests. The Panthers are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games while the Gators are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 versus the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600, and they are 21-10 ATS the last 3 seasons versus excellent teams like Pitt that shoot 45% or better from the field and hold opponents to 42% shooting or worse.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Kings +8.5
Bottom Line: Sacramento is rested and will be hungry for a win against a Spurs team it has 8 straight against. The Spurs have a much more challenging game against Golden State tomorrow so I don't believe Sacramento will get their full attention. The Kings are 31-15 ATS as a home underdog of 6.5 to 9 points since 1996. They are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600.

4* Major Friday Big Dance Bailout on NC Central +9
Bottom Line: After 4 consecutive wins and covers to end the season, the Cyclones are being overvalued. Iowa State is 4-14 ATS in road or neutral court games after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games since 1997. Playing against neutral court teams like Iowa State that have made 50% of their 3-point shots or better the last 2 games has resulted in a 26-8 ATS record since 1997 in a game involving good free throw shooting teams (69-73%). NC Central played at Cincinnati, NC State and Wichita State this season. It defeated the Wolfpack and played a Wichita State team I believe is for real to an 11-point game. Wichita State defends far better than this Iowa State team does. Look for NC Central to keep this one close.

5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Week on Mavs -7.5
Bottom Line: Dallas is off a home loss to Minnesota and has lost all 3 matchups this season with a Denver squad that has won 4 of 5 (2 of the wins over the Heat and Clippers), yet it is laying 7.5 points? Obviously, the books are expecting Dallas to take care of business in this highly motivated spot, and I completely agree. Not only will the Mavs be out to avoid the season sweep, but they need every win they can get as they fight to hang on to a playoff spot. With several tough games ahead, this is one Dallas really needs. The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 versus the Western Conference and 37-14 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss. Pound Dallas.

4* Major Friday NCAA Tournament *UPSET ALERT* on Stephen F. Austin +6.5
Bottom Line: This will be VCU's 3rd game in a week, and its history in this position isn't good. The Rams are 11-28 ATS when playing a 3rd game in a week under coach Smart, including 2-10 ATS the last 2 seasons. The Rams are also 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss, which means this team doesn't perform as well when playing without momentum and that oddsmakers inflate its lines in bounce-back spots. The Lumberjacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, and they get the call Friday evening.

5* Wiseguy Friday Big Dance *BEST BET* on Oklahoma State -1.5
Bottom Line: This Gonzaga team isn't as good as last year's team, which was a big disappointment in the NCAA Tournament. It struggled against Southern in its first game, winning by 6 as a 21.5-point favorite, and then was upset by Wichita State in the next round. The Zags went 0-2 ATS in those games and are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 in the Big Dance. They closed the season strong with big wins over St. Mary's and BYU, but they are 0-7 ATS in road or neutral court games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. While the Bulldogs have typically been able to advance past their first game in the tournament, they got a bad draw here. Oklahoma State is much better than a 9-seed and it will be hungry after a poor showing and quick exit in last year's NCAA Tournament. That loss was a rare exception to the rule as the Cowboys are on an 18-7 ATS run in opening tournament games. They have won these by an average of 6.9 points. Pound the Cowboys.

4* Major Friday Big Dance *DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH* on Kansas -15
Bottom Line: Much has been made about Kansas not deserving a No. 2 seed because of the injury to Joel Embiid, but the Jayhawks will be out to prove they are worthy. The Kansas defense was pathetic against Iowa State in its last game. It gave up 94 points on 54% shooting. That poor showing bodes well for us here as the Jayhawks are 14-1 ATS after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game since 1997. They have won in this spot by an average of 17.7 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* Bailout on Bucks +13.5
Bottom Line: Warriors head coach Mark Jackson has said the focus right now is to get healthy. He's not going to push guys extra minutes just to blow out the Bucks. The Warriors won in Milwaukee by 21 earlier this season, and they have San Antonio on deck so I don't see them being very hungry or focused tonight. Milwaukee has been scoring the ball well and covering big numbers as a result. The Bucks are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Warriors are off a 14-pt. win over Orlando but are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings at Golden State. Pound the Bucks.

4* Major Thursday Big Dance Bailout on Manhattan +16.5
Bottom Line: The defending champion Louisville Cardinals come in riding high off 5 consecutive blowout victories and will be looking right past a Manhattan team they defeated 79-51 last season. This is not the same Manhattan team Louisville saw in the first game of the season last year. The Jaspers are deeper and more experienced and have the benefit of knowing how hard they'll have to play to have a shot. Manhattan is 6-0 ATS in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons so coach Steve Masiello has been punching all the right buttons. Grab the points.

4* Major Thursday NCAA Tournament *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on North Dakota State +4
Bottom Line: This experienced North Dakota State team should give Oklahoma all its wants and more, and I look for the Bison to pull off the upset. The Bison are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games and 20-9 ATS in their last 29 non-conference games. Oklahoma is not a good defensive team (allows 75.9 ppg), and that spells bad news this time of year against a foreign opponent that will be playing loose with nothing to lose.

4* Major Thursday Big Dance Oddsmaker Error on Delaware +14.5
Bottom Line: Oddsmakers are asking Michigan State to lay a few too many points. The Spartans are healthy and playing well, but Delaware has averaged 80.0 points in road/neutral court games this season. High-scoring teams make good underdogs because the backdoor is always open. Since Tom Izzo took over, fading Michigan State on a neutral floor when it is laying 12.5-15.0 points has resulted in an 8-1 ATS record. Delaware challenged itself early this season by playing 11 of its first 13 games away from home. It was a double-digit dog at Richmond, Villanova, Notre Dame and Ohio State during this stretch and went 4-0 ATS in these games while beating the spread by a combined 37 points.

5* Wiseguy NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Syracuse -12.5
Bottom Line: Syracuse wilted down the stretch of the regular season, but I expect the Orange to be re-energized and ready to make a Final Four run. Western Michigan relies on getting to the foul line to generate offense, but Syracuse doesn't foul very much. The Orange are 8-0 ATS this season versus good foul-drawing teams like W. Michigan that attempt 25 free throws per game or more. The Orange have won these games by an average of 13.9 points. The Broncos enter off an impressive 98-77 victory over Toledo in the MAC championship, but they are 0-8 ATS the last 3 seasons in road or neutral court games after a combined score of 155 points or more. They have lost by an average of 14.5 points in this spot. The Broncos are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. The Orange are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. MAC opponents. WMU's upset win over Toledo has it in the Dance for the first time since 2004 so it's just happy to be here. Syracuse, on the other hand, has championship aspirations and will be in a foul mood after finishing the regular season poorly. The Broncos are 4-13 ATS off an upset win by 10 points or more under coach Hawkins. They are on a 19-37 ATS slide as an underdog of 10 or more points, losing these games by 16.4 points on average. Pound Syracuse.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Lakers +13.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers haven't played since the 14th when they were brutally embarrassed in San Antonio. I expect a much, much better effort from them here as they look to save some face. The Spurs have had the last 2 days off, but they will be looking to conserve as much energy as possible down the stretch to get their bodies ready for another championship run. I don't see them going for the jugular again tonight. Playing against double-digit favorites after 8 or more consecutive wins has resulted in a 30-14 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they are a winning team playing a losing team. The Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 2 days' rest. The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

5* Wiseguy Big Dance *BEST BET* on Iowa -2
Bottom Line: Iowa went from looking like a team that could beat anybody to looking like a team that could lose to anybody, but I'm not ready to give up on the Hawkeyes. They enter the NCAA Tournament absolutely disgusted with the way they finished the season, and we should get maximum effort from them because of it. Tennessee, on the other hand, enters feeling pretty good about the way it closed, and I don't see it playing with the same level of desperation as Iowa. The Hawkeyes should also benefit from getting away from the Big Ten. Teams they beat the first time around in conference play were getting them down the stretch. It will be to their advantage playing a team that isn't very familiar with them. Iowa is on an impressive 16-5 ATS run in non-conference games. The Hawks are 18-7 ATS the last 2 seasons versus teams with a win percentage of .600 to .800. Tennessee is 2-9 ATS the last 2 seasons versus excellent ball handling teams that committing 12 turnovers per game or less. The Vols are also on a 33-52 ATS slide in neutral court games and a 29-52 ATS slide in all tournament games. Pound Iowa.

4* Major NBA Non-Conference *SUREFIRE* on Pelicans +1
Bottom Line: Bad spot for the Raptors who played an OT game in Atlanta last night. I don't think they'll have enough left in the tank to come away with a win tonight. They are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games without a day of rest. The Pelicans will be working on 2 days of rest and are on a 4-0 ATS run when that is the case. The underdog is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings, and I'll side with the home dog here.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Bobcats +6
Bottom Line: The Nets are being overvalued because they have won 9 straight at home and defeated Charlotte by 16 at home last month. Despite that win, Brooklyn is laying less here than it did in that game (-7.5). Obviously, the books are expecting Charlotte to put up a lot more of a fight this time around, and I look for the Bobcats to take the Nets down to the wire. Charlotte is 9-1 ATS this season versus teams with a win percentage of 51% to 60%, and it has defeated these teams by an average of 3.4 points. The Bobcats are also 15-7 ATS this season when out for revenge for a double-digit loss. They have lost these contests by just 3.1 points on average. Pound the Bobcats.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Raptors -3
Bottom Line: Atlanta won in Charlotte last night, but it hasn't fared well in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. The Hawks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games when playing without a day of rest and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Toronto won by 21 when it hosted the Hawks last month, and it will be motivated to crush them again following an upset loss to Phoenix last game. The Raptors are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Playing against home teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 92-50 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they are off a win on the road. Playing against home underdogs that are out for revenge for a road loss of 20 points or more has resulted in an 87-49 ATS record since 1996 if they're opponent is off an upset loss. Pound Toronto.

5* Wiseguy NIT *BEST BET* on Florida State -10.5
Bottom Line: It's a letdown playing in the NIT for FGCU after all the success and national attention it received as a Cinderella in last year's Big Dance. Plus, this is not quite the same team that made a run to the Sweet 16. This year's Eagles lost 79-55 at Nebraska, 82-62 at NC State, 72-61 at Florida International and 66-53 at Mississippi State. While FSU had its ups and downs in conference play, it was one tough cookie in non-conference action. The Seminoles defeated VCU 85-67 and UMass 60-55. They played Michigan to a 2-point game and Florida to a 1-point game. FSU is 8-2 ATS in non-conference games this season, winning them by an average of 12.7 points. Pound FSU.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* Bailout on Nuggets +4.5
Bottom Line: Denver was fortunate to cover at Atlanta in its last game as it trailed by 21 points in the contest. That poor performance bodes well for us tonight. Consider that underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 103 ppg or more are 37-14 ATS since 1996 if they trailed by 15 points or more at the half last game. The Nuggets have been a terrific investment at home against elite competition, going 9-1 ATS there the last 2 seasons versus teams with a win percentage over .700. They have defeated those teams by an average of 5.1 points. Pound the Nuggets.

4* Major NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Thunder -2.5
Bottom Line: The Bulls catch the Thunder at a bad time. After getting embarrassed by Dallas yesterday, Oklahoma City will be out for blood. The Bulls are one of the top defensive teams in the league, but so are the Thunder. The difference is OKC is far superior on the offensive end. In the end, OKC's offense will be a little too much for Chicago to overcome. That's been the case in OKC's 4-game win streak in the series. They've won these 4 by 15.5 points on average while holding Chicago to 84.0 points. The Thunder are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. In games played in the second half of the season, road teams that average 102.0 ppg or more and are off a loss of 15 points or more are 41-15 ATS since 1996 if they are up against a team that averages only 92-98.0 ppg. This system is 6-1 ATS the last 3 seasons.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Nets -4.5
Bottom Line: This is a tough scheduling spot for the Suns who will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and 2nd in as many days. Brooklyn is in a much better scheduling spot as it is playing for just the 2nd time in 5 days. The Nets lost at Washington last time out, but they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss. They are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning record. Bet the Nets.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* Bailout on Clippers -11
Bottom Line: The Clippers have taken care of business against poor teams lately going 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus teams with a winning percentage below .400. They'll be lacking no motivation here as they look to pay Cleveland back for a 6-point upset loss in the season's first matchup. LA is 11-3 ATS this season when out for revenge for an upset loss this season. Playing against double-digit road dogs that have beaten the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games has resulted in a 61-31 ATS record since 1996 if they have a winning percentage of .250 to .400. These teams have lost by an average of 16.0 points in these contests. Pound the Clippers.

5* Wiseguy Big 10 Championship *BEST BET* on Michigan State -2.5
Bottom Line: Michigan State lost both regular season matchups with the Wolverines and the defense was lacking in both as they allowed 80 and 79 points, respectively. Highly motivated by those defeats, I expect the Spartans to have their revenge with defense as the catalyst. Favorites out for revenge for two straight losses to an opponent where they allowed 75 points or more has resulted in a 34-10 ATS record the last 5 seasons if their opponent is off 2 straight wins against conference foes. Pound Michigan State.

4* Major SEC Championship *SUREFIRE* on Kentucky +6.5
Bottom Line: Kentucky enters this contest with a ton of confidence following back-to-back double-digit victories over LSU and Georgia, and it will be highly motivated as it looks to avenge a pair of double-digit loss to the Wildcats. Teams headed up by coach Calipari are an impressive 38-17 ATS since 1997 when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. Florida got a big test yesterday from Tennessee, and I expect it to get another major test today.

5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Year on Hawks -6
Bottom Line: This is the last game of a long 5-game road trip for Denver, and it comes after arguably its biggest win of the season. In other words, this has letdown written all over it for the Nuggets. Atlanta will be the more rested team. Plus, it will be highly motivated as it looks to hold off teams for the last playoff spot in the East. The Nuggets are a terrible 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games when playing without a day of rest. They are also 1-11 ATS in the 2nd half of the season versus teams with a win percentage of 40-49% over the last 2 seasons. Pound the Hawks.

4* Major AAC Tournament Championship on Connecticut +8
Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Huskies, who were handed an u-g-l-y 33-point loss when these teams met a week ago. The Huskies are an awesome 10-2 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss over the last 3 seasons. They are also 8-1 ATS under coach Ollie in games played away from home 15 games or more into the season versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4.0 ppg or more.

5* Wiseguy Big 10 *BEST BET* on Michigan State -120
Bottom Line: Michigan State has won 5 straight against Wisconsin by an average of 9.4 points before losing by two on a last second shot in the regular season meeting. The Spartans still covered the spread in that game and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus Wisconsin. What can't be overlooked is that Michigan State was without Brandon Dawson and Keith Appling in that game and Gary Harris had arguably his worst game of the season, and it still too Wiscy down to the wire. The Michigan State defense was locked in last game, and that's a great sign. The Spartans are 6-0 ATS in road of neutral court battles after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. They have won by an average of 11.0 points in these contests. Pound Sparty.

4* Major SEC Tournament *SUREFIRE* (ABC) on Tennessee +7
Bottom Line: Tennessee had won 3 straight against Florida before dropping both regular season matchups this season, and it will be extremely motivated as a result. The Vols are on a 30-14 ATS run when playing with double revenge. Additionally, neutral court dogs that are out for revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 60 points are 91-53 ATS since 1997 if the team they are seeking revenge against is off a cover as a double-digit favorite. The Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 20 points. Take Tennessee.

4* Major Big 12 *BLOOD BATH* on Baylor -1
Bottom Line: I'll back Baylor, who is playing its best basketball of the season, in this double revenge spot. Texas won the season's first two matchup, but it is on the decline at 3-4 in its last 7 games. Baylor has won 5 in a row and 9 of 10 with the only blemish against Texas so it will be after some cold hard revenge. The Bears are 8-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or pickem under coach Drew. Texas is 4-12 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 3 points or less or pickem under coach Barnes.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +9.5
Bottom Line: Off a big win over Golden State, it's going to be mighty tough for the Clippers to get up for the lowly Jazz. Utah hasn't quit and continues to be competitive at home where it has lost by double digits just twice in its last 12 games. The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record. This is the Clippers' first trip to Utah since 12/28/12, and they typically haven't fared well there. The Clippers are 4-17 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Utah. Pound the Jazz.

5* Wiseguy SEC Tournament Game of the Year on Kentucky -4.5
Bottom Line: We are getting tremendous value with Kentucky because it is on a 0-5 ATS slide and failed to cover 4 times during this stretch as a double-digit favorite. I expect to see the Wildcats give more effort in this game than we've seen from them in a long time, especially on the defensive end. They will be highly motivated because of how poorly they performed down the stretch. They will also be extremely focused because they split with LSU and the win was far from impressive. The total is significant because college teams headed up by John Calipari are 10-2 ATS since 1997 in neutral court battles where the total is 145 to 149.5. His teams have won these games by an average of 10.7 points. The total is a good indicator of how odds makers see a game playing out, and a total in this range clearly favors Kentucky. Factoring in the spread, odds makers are expecting LSU to score around 70 points. The Wildcats are 12-1 in their last 13 games when holding opponents to 70 points or less. The lone loss came to Florida ans the 12 wins all came by at least 7 points. Pound Kentucky.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Bulls +3.5
Bottom Line: I think Houston will still be holding on to Tuesday's loss to the Thunder. That was a game it really wanted, and I don't see it being able to get up for a Bulls team it defeated by 15 earlier this season. Plus, the Rockets are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Bulls suffered a letdown against San Antonio following a huge win over Miami, but they are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss. They are also 10-1 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons when playing against good teams that have a Win Pct. of .600 to .700. Also, Chicago is 13-4 ATS this season when out for revenge for a double-digit loss to an opponent. Pound the Bulls.

5* Wiseguy Big 10 Tournament Game of the Year on Penn State +5
Bottom Line: Penn State is happy to have another shot at Minnesota since it lost by 18 to the Golden Gophers in the regular season finale. That effort is not sitting well with the Nittany Lions since they played the Gophers to a 3-point game in the first meeting. I expect Penn State to take Minnesota right down to the wire with a chance to win this one outright. Playing against neutral floor favorites or pickems that have gone under the total by 42 or more points in their last 7 games has resulted in a 49-15 ATS record since 1997 if they have a winning record on the season and are playing a team that has a losing record. This system is 5-0 ATS on the season. Additionally, the Golden Gophers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. Pound Penn State.

4* Major Big West Tournament *BLOOD BATH* on Cal Poly SLO +7.5
Bottom Line: Look for Cal Poly to give Santa Barbara a game this afternoon. The Mustangs won the first meeting on the road by 8 points but lost at home in their regular season finale by 16. That loss will have them extremely motivated. Santa Barbara is on a 13-26 ATS slide after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. They are on a 26-48 ATS slide after 3 or more consecutive wins. Cal Poly is 11-3 ATS under coach Joe Callero in road or neutral court games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +5.5
Bottom Line: Washington is being overvalued at home, where it is 11-18-2 ATS this season, against a Bobcats team that will be out for revenge for a disappointing 14-point loss in the first matchup. The Wizards are a soft 9-19 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Wizards are also 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Charlotte is one of the best defensive teams in the league and has been solid in transition defense. That's why it's 8-1 ATS in the 2nd half of this season versus up-tempo teams like Washington that average 83 shots or more per game. The Bobcats have won these games by an average of 9.3 points. Pound Charlotte.

4* Major SEC *SUREFIRE* on South Carolina +3
Bottom Line: South Carolina lost by 16 at Auburn the last time these two met, but the Gamecocks are on a 15-1 ATS run in road or neutral court games when out for revenge for a double-digit road loss to an opponent. Additionally, Auburn is 1-8 ATS under coach Tony Barbee in neutral court games.

4* Major ACC *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (ESPN2) on Boston College +2
Bottom Line: Boston College had won 3 straight against Georgia Tech before dropping both regular season matchups. The Eagles played Tech to a 3-point game on the road in the most recent meeting, and I expect them to break through here. BC is on a 30-15 ATS run in road or neutral court games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Coach Donahue's teams are 22-8 ATS lifetime in road or neutral court games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Coach Gregory's Georgia Tech teams are 10-24 ATS after a game where they covered the spread. This experienced Boston College team has shown glimpses, like when it took UConn down to the wire and when it beat Syracuse. I like its chances of rising to the occasion in this motivated spot.

5* Wiseguy Big East Tournament Game of the Year on Seton Hall -140
Bottom Line: I really like Seton Hall to win this game so I'm going to take the Pirates on the money line at a reasonable price. Butler had just 4 conference wins, and 2 of them came against Seton Hall. One of them was a 71-54 victory at home in the regular-season finale. That loss is not sitting well with a Seton Hall team I believe is flat out better. The Pirates played tourney-bound Oklahoma and Creighton to one-point games this season on foreign courts. They also played bubble team St. John's to one-point games twice. They've performed better than Butler against quality competition, and I'm confident they break through here. Seton Hall is 6-0 ATS in road or neutral court games when out for revenge for a road loss to a team the last 3 seasons. Butler is 0-7 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite the last 3 seasons. It is also worth mentioning that Kevin Willard teams are 15-5 ATS in road or neutral court games when out for revenge for two straight losses to a team. Pound the Pirates.

4* Major Western Conference *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Thunder -4
Bottom Line: Following an ugly upset loss to the Lakers, OKC will take its frustrations out on a Houston team it has owned. The Thunder have won 3 straight in the series by 9 points or more with the home win coming by 31. Playing against underdogs that are out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent has resulted in a 92-51 ATS record the last 5 seasons if the opponent is also off a road loss. The Thunder are 19-8 ATS the last 3 seasons following an upset loss on the road, winning these contests by an average of 8.4 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers -11
Bottom Line: Look for the Pacers to bounce back at home, where they are 29-4 on the season, against a Boston team that has struggled on the road and has struggled against the Pacers. The Celtics are 8-22 on the road this season, including 0-4 in their last 4. They've lost 3 straight to the Pacers with two of the losses coming by 15-plus. They lost by 27 in the game played in Indiana. Cold teams like Indiana that have failed to cover the spread in 12 or more their last 15 games are 68-30 ATS since 1996 if they are up against an opponent that has covered the number in 5 or 6 of its last 7 games. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Additionally, playing against road underdogs that are out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent has resulted in a 165-103 ATS record the last 5 seasons if their opponent is off a road loss. The Pacers are 28-11 ATS off a road loss the last 2 seasons. Pound Indiana.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Clippers -10
Bottom Line: This is a tough spot for Phoenix, which is playing a 2nd road game in as many days. The Clippers suffered a letdown following their blowout win over the Lakers and were lucky to beat a struggling Atlanta squad. They will be focused here because of it. Plus, they lost by 19 on this floor to Phoenix earlier this season and will be motivated to right that wrong. The Clippers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus the Western Conference. They are 18-8 ATS this season after a game where they failed to cover the spread.

4* Major NBA Fool's Gold Favorite on Jazz +1.5
Bottom Line: The wrong team is favored here. The Hawks are 1-14 in their last 15, including 0-6 in their last 6. They are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. They are even 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games versus teams with losing home records. Utah has been playing good at home where it is 2-0 in its last 2, 4-2 in its last 6 and 11-6 since Dec. 27.

4* Major MEAC *SUREFIRE* on SC State +7.5
Bottom Line: This is a vulnerable spot for Savannah State because it just defeated SC State by 19 in its last game. It won't match the intensity of the Bulldogs, who know they must put forth their best effort to come out on top. The Tigers already have this one chalked up as a win in their minds, and that puts them in dangerous territory. Savannah State is a poor 4-10 ATS in its last 14 contests that had a line. It is also just 2-5 ATS in its last 7 lined conference contests.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BEST BET* on Ball State +13.5
Bottom Line: Ohio is home following back-to-back wins and covers on the road, but home hasn't been good to the Bobcats lately. They are 0-3 SU in their last 3 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last four at home. They are just 4-13 ATS in home games against conference opponents under coach Jim Christian. They are 1-12 ATS off a road win over a conference foe and 0-11 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite under Christian. This season, the Bobcats are 1-8 ATS in home games after playing a road game and 0-6 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread. Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points off 2 straight losses against conference foes are 111-65 ATS since 1997 if their opponent is off 2 or more consecutive road wins. Road dogs of 10 or more points that are out for revenge a loss where they were held to less than 60 points are 166-105 ATS since 1997 if they are also off 2 consecutive losses of 10 or more in conference play. Pound Ball State.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers -1.5
Bottom Line: Despite 3 consecutive defeats, the Pacers are still 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss, and I fully expect them to bounce back strong here. Friday's loss at Houston brought the Pacers the kind of humiliation that will elicit a response. The Pacers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points. They are 29-15 ATS under coach Frank Vogel off a road loss of 10 points or more. The Mavs picked up a much needed win over Portland last game to end a 3-game skid, but I don't see them being able to match defensive intensity with an Indiana team that has shown it can put the clamps on. The defensive effort hasn't been there for Indiana the past 2 games, and the results were ugly, so I expect them to do something about it. The Pacers are 10-2 ATS this season versus good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or more. The Mavs are 5-17 ATS under Rick Carlisle in home games versus good defensive teams with a shooting percentage defense of 43% or better. The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Dallas. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Pound the Pacers.

4* Major NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Blazers +6
Bottom Line: This is a sandwich game for Houston. It is off a gigantic 112-86 revenge win over Indiana and it has a big revenge game at Oklahoma City on deck. It has a pair of double-digit losses to the Thunder this season so it will already be looking ahead to that game, especially since it has won 2 of 3 against Portland this season and posted a 13-point win in this building in the most recent matchup. The Rockets are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 103.0 ppg or more and trailed in their previous game by 15 points or more at the half are 29-9 ATS since 1996.

4* Major Big Ten *BLOOD BATH* (CBS) on Ohio State -2.5
Bottom Line: Michigan State is only 19-35 ATS under coach Tom Izzo in road games when the line is +3 to -3. It is just 18-31 ATS under Izzo in road games as an underdog of 6 points or less or pickem. The Buckeyes are 87-63 ATS at home as a favorite or pickem under coach Thad Matta. They are 40-27 ATS under Matta when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent. The Buckeyes are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall versus teams with a winning percentage above .600. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Spartans are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Cavs -1.5
Bottom Line: The Knicks crushed Utah last night, but they are a pathetic 1-10 ATS in road games after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons and have lost in this spot by an average of 10.5 points. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing without a day of rest, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing home record and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 versus the Eastern Conference. It is also worth mentioning that the Knicks are just 11-24 ATS as an underdog this season. The Cavs dropped a 3rd straight game last night, but they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400. They are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when playing without a day of rest. The Knicks embarrassed the Cavs 117-86 in late January, and that loss will provide plenty of fuel here. Pound Cleveland.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Game of the Year on St. Bonaventure +10.5
Bottom Line: VCU can earn a share of the A-10 title with a win and a Saint Louis loss to UMass tomorrow so it has plenty to play for. However, asking the Rams to lay double digits in this spot is asking too much. VCU just played a tough game at Richmond Thursday so fatigue will be an issue. This means its press won't be as effective. It also means that it has had only one day to prepare. This is significant because it hasn't seen the Bonnies previously this season. Plus, the Bonnies have had a week to prepare. St. Bonaventure's 4-8 road record looks bad, but consider that 7 of the losses came by 8 points or less. It played UMass to a 5-point game on the road and Saint Louis to a 6-point game on the road. The Rams are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a losing road record. They are also 14-24 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or more points under Shaka Smart. Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points that have failed to cover in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games has resulted in an 83-35 ATS record the last 5 seasons when they're matched up with a team that has covered in 4 of its last 5. This system is 10-2 ATS this season. Pound St. Bonaventure.

4* Major Pac-12 *PUNISHER* on Cal -4
Bottom Line: Following 3 consecutive defeats, the Golden Bears are likely on the outside looking in in terms of the NCAA Tournament. They can still play their way in but MUST take care of business here. I'm confident they will in this highly motivated spot. This is a very similar situation to one we saw earlier this season. Cal lost two straight road games to UCLA and USC and then lost to ASU in its return home. Incredibly motivated, it upset Arizona in its next game. The Buffaloes are 1-8 ATS on the road the last 2 seasons in games taking place at least 15 games into the season versus teams with a win rate of 60% to 80%. They are also 6-15 ATS in Saturday road games under coach Boyle. The Golden Bears are 28-10-1 ATS in their last 39 Saturday games.

5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Week on Mavs -2
Bottom Line: Playing on teams like Dallas that average 103.0 ppg or more and trailed in their previous game by 15 points or more at the half has resulted in a 140-76 (65%) ATS record since 1996. Additionally, Dallas is 10-1 ATS the last 3 seasons after trailing by 15 points or more at the half of its last game. The Mavs came out very flat in their last game against Denver but won the second half by 12 points. What they did in the second half gives them some momentum heading into this one. Mentally, they know if they can come out strong that they have an excellent chance to come away with a victory. I expect Dallas to get off to a strong start tonight against a Portland team that is giving up 105.3 ppg. You might recall that Portland won by 16 in this building in January so the Mavs will be lacking no incentive. Pound Dallas as it explodes to a double-digit win.

4* Major Atlantic Division *SUREFIRE* on Celtics +4
Bottom Line: The Celtics will go after this game with all they've got. They've lost the season's first two matchups, but I believe the third time's a charm. While the Celtics have struggled against the West, they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 versus the Eastern Conference, earning a cover against Indiana during this span. The Nets have been far from reliable on the road where they are 12-18. They also have a losing record against the East. Brooklyn is coming off a pair of very satisfying wins over Chicago and Memphis, and the tendency will be to coast tonight.

4* Major NBA Letdown *BLOOD BATH* on Cavs +5
Bottom Line: The Bobcats are in a letdown spot following Wednesday's upset win over Indiana. The Bobcats are 4-13 ATS off an upset win at over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by an average of 8.2 points. Charlotte is one of the lowest scoring teams in the NBA but has topped the century mark in its last 2 games. This is noteworthy because the Bobcats are 1-10 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. They have lost by an average of 10.5 points in this spot. The Cavs fall on the other side of the coin as they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. They've lost the season's first 2 matchups with Charlotte so I expect them to bring a little extra tonight. The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a losing record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

4* Major NBA on TNT Bailout on Lakers +11.5
Bottom Line: I expect the Lakers to compete hard here after giving up 132 points in a loss to New Orleans. Plus, they gave up 123 points in a 36-point loss the last time they played their city rivals so they will be out to save face. The Lakers are 12-2 ATS under coach D'Antoni after allowing 120 points or more in their previous game, winning these contests by 0.1 points on average while holding opponents to 101.9 points. Clearly, the Lakers have responded following poor defensive efforts.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Suns +6.5
Bottom Line: The Suns have been a terrific investment this season at 38-21-1 ATS. They are 21-12 ATS when catching points. Phoenix went down to the Clippers last game, but it is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS loss. The Thunder are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the far more challenging Western Conference. They are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams that have a winning record. The Suns played the Thunder to a 7-point game on the road early in the season, and I expect them to keep this one even closer. The last time they hosted OKC, they were handed a 97-69 defeat. That loss assures us they will be highly motivated.

4* Major C-USA *PUNISHER* on Tulane +12
Bottom Line: Home teams that are out for revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 50 points are 108-55 ATS since 1997 if they're also off a road loss of 20 points or more. This system is 2-0 ATS this season. The Green Wave are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 20 points. So Miss is playing for a conference title, but Tulane has a chance to post a winning conference record and avenge the embarrassing loss in the first meeting. Grab the points as the Green Wave keep this one within the number.

4* Major Pac-12 Bailout on Cal -3.5
Bottom Line: Look for Utah to suffer a letdown as it hits the highway, where it's 1-7 this season, following back-to-back big wins over ASU and Colorado. Cal is off back-to-back losses on the road so it will be happy to see its home floor where it is 12-3 on the season. The Golden Bears are on a 15-4 ATS run in home games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, and they have won these contests by 13.0 points on average. They are also 9-1 ATS in home games under coach Montgomery after being held to 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight, and they have won these contests by an average of 15.6 points.

5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Month on Auburn +4.5
Bottom Line: Tennessee is on the bubble and needs this game, but I believe Auburn will want it just a little bit more. The Tigers have dropped 6 straight in the series and will be out for blood in their last home game of the season as a result. Home court has been huge in the series with the home team on a 13-3 ATS run. Plus, the Vols are on a 0-4 ATS slide road games versus teams that have a winning home record. Auburn is a strong 12-5 at home this season and will have a good opportunity to upset Tennessee tonight. Pound the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Celtics +5
Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for the Warriors following last night's last-second victory in Indiana. This is also a highly fatigued spot for the Warriors who are playing their 6th straight road game and 3rd in 4 days. Boston has had 3 days off so it will undoubtedly be fresher. I also expect the Celtics to be motivated as they were done in by a Stephen Curry jumper with 4 seconds left back on Jan. 10. The Warriors are a poor 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a win. They are also 0-4 ATS this season in the last game of a road trip lasting at least 3 games. Boston is 5-0 in its last 5 and 8-1 in its last 9 home games in the series with the loss coming by a single point. Pound the Celtics.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Magic +6.5
Bottom Line: This one has letdown written all over it for the Rockets, who defeated the Heat last night and have the Pacers, Blazers and Thunder up next. Orlando will have the fresher legs as it has had the last 2 days off. You can bet Dwight Howard would like to turn in a giant performance inside his old home. He did just that when he visited with the Lakers last season. But this Magic team has pride and will make sure it doesn't happen again. Orlando has been outstanding at home of late. It is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games with outright wins over the Thunder and Pacers during this stretch. The Magic are also a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last meetings with the Rockets.

4* Major Pac-12 Bailout on Oregon -7
Bottom Line: Oregon is currently on Joe Lunardi's last 4 in list, which means it can't afford a slip-up here. The Ducks know taking care of business against ASU and Arizona in their last 2 regular-season games will go a long way toward punching their ticket to the Big Dance. ASU has really struggled on the road where it is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last 6 games with the 5 losses coming by 15.2 points. The Sun Devils are 1-7 ATS this season versus teams like Oregon that have outscored their opponents by 8.0 ppg or more. They have lost to these teams by 9.8 points on average. Oregon is 11-1 ATS the last 3 seasons after covering the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. They have won by 9.3 points on average in this spot.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Pelicans +2.5
Bottom Line: Look for the Lakers to come out flat following last night's huge upset win in Portland. The Lakers are on a 13-28 ATS slide in home games off a road win of 3 points or less. They are also just 2-12 ATS in home games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. It's been a rough stretch for New Orleans, but it is also a 34-18 ATS run in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses. It is also 12-4 ATS in its last 16 road games against the Lakers.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Cavs +7.5
Bottom Line: Cleveland has had an extra day to prepare for this contest, and it will want it more than the Spurs as it seeks revenge for the 126-96 beating it was handed at San Antonio earlier this season. The Spurs have bigger fish to fry and are already focusing on Thursday's matchup against the Heat, who defeated them in last year's NBA Finals and won the season's first matchup by double digits. Cleveland is an outstanding rebounding team, and such teams have given the Spurs big problems. The Spurs are just 4-15 ATS this season versus teams who average 53 boards per game or more. The Spurs have lost to these teams by 0.7 points on average. Additionally, the Cavs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the Western Conference. Pound Cleveland.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Nets -3
Bottom Line: I believe this is a motivational mismatch. The Nets have been embarrassed by the Bulls in the first 2 matchups, which is salt in a wound that was opened up by last season's playoff loss. I expect Brooklyn to finally have its revenge tonight, and it will be aided by the fact Chicago is in a tough scheduling spot (5th game in 7 days). The Nets have been impressive at home since the calendar turned to 2014, winning 10 of 12, including 4 in a row. They have big wins over the Thunder, Heat and Spurs in 2014, and they'll get the Bulls tonight. Pound the Nets.

4* Major Big East *BLOOD BATH* on Seton Hall +2
Bottom Line: Seton Hall won the first matchup at Xavier by 8 points and is in a great spot to get the Musketeers again. Xavier is off a huge win over Creighton and has Villanova on deck. Even though this is a revenge game, the Musketeers will have a difficult time refocusing such a short time removed from their biggest win of the season. Seton Hall enters on a 3-game losing streak so I expect it to give a little extra in its last home game of the season. The Pirates are 13-5 ATS under coach Willard off 3 straight losses to conference foes. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus teams like Xavier that have a losing road record.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +5.5
Bottom Line: Off a loss to the Bulls and out for revenge for an ugly loss in its last trip to San Antonio, Dallas will be lacking no motivation or focus. First off, the Mavericks are 40-15 ATS in their last 55 games following a game where they failed to cover. Secondly, they are 40-16 ATS in their last 56 road games, 36-15 ATS in their last 51 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Spurs are only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Pound Dallas.

5* Wiseguy Big 10 Game of the Week on Iowa -14.5
Bottom Line: Following an emotionally draining home loss to Michigan, I don't see Purdue being able to hang with an Iowa team in its most motivated spot of the season. The Hawkeyes have lost three in a row and will put forth an effort on their home floor today that we haven't seen since they crushed Michigan. Home favorites or pickems off 2 or more consecutive upset losses on the road are an impressive 80-38 ATS since 1997. Iowa is 12-4 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons. It is 11-0 ATS after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons and 8-0 ATS in its last 8 March matchups. You don't want to make a habit of going against a Fran McCaffery team in March, and you have to love the way Iowa controls the boards. There issue has been on the defensive end, and I'm confident they do something about it here. Purdue is 0-9 ATS after a game where its covered the spread this season. Pound Iowa.

5* Wiseguy NBA Line Mistake of the Week on 76ers +11.5
Bottom Line: I'm fading the Wizards here. They are off a huge 3OT revenge win over Toronto, and they have a revenge game against Memphis up next. Not only will they be extremely fatigued, they won't give a 76ers team with the 2nd-worst record in the league their full attention. The 76ers will be the fresher team having not played since Wednesday, and I expect them to also show some fight as they try to avoid the season sweep. Keep in mind that 2 of their 3 losses to Washington this season have come by just 7 and 8 points. Double-digit dogs off 4 or more consecutive losses and playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 77-39 ATS since 1996. This system is 9-2 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. I feel it is ridiculous for an average team like Washington to lay this many points on the road, especially given their high level of fatigue and low level of motivation. Pound Philly.

4* Major MVC Game of the Week on Loyola-Chicago -2.5
Bottom Line: The Ramblers can avoid sole possession of the conference basement with a win. They can also go into the conference tourney with some much-needed momentum. Loyola has lost 5 straight, but 4 of those were on the road and the other was against Wichita State. Like Loyola, Evansville has struggled away from home. The Purple Aces are 1-11 in their last 12 road games, including 0-6 in their last 6. Evansville is off a big revenge win over Drake, which bodes well for us because it is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a cover. Loyola was pathetic from the foul line against Missouri State, shooting just 35.7%. That poor shooting effort actually plays to our advantage. The Ramblers would have played the Bears tougher had they shot their season average from the charity stripe and we are getting a better line because of it. Loyola is 6-0 ATS under coach Porter Moser after a game where it made 53% of its free throws or worse. It has won these games by an average of 5.7 points.

5* Wiseguy Horizon League Game of the Year on Detroit +5.5
Bottom Line: Tough, tough spot for Green Bay playing its second road game in three days and doesn't have much incentive having already sewed up the regular-season conference championship. Detroit is looking for some momentum prior to the league tournament, and that's not its only motivation. The Titans are off a bad home loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee and will be out for revenge for a 10-point loss at Green Bay. Detroit has been extremely competitive at home in this series, winning or losing by fewer than 5.5 points in 4 straight, 7 of the last 8 and 14 of the last 16. Green Bay is on a 6-18 ATS slide when it's off 3 straight wins against conference foes. Also, the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound Detroit.

4* Major MAAC *PUNISHER* (ESPNU) on Rider +3
Bottom Line: This is the last home game of the season for Rider, and I expect it to leave it all on the court to end a 4-game home skid and to assure itself of at least a .500 record in conference play. Rider lost the first matchup at Canisius by just 3 points, and it is on a 45-25 ATS run when out for same-season revenge. The Broncs are also an awesome 14-2 ATS under coach Baggett in games when the line is +3 to -3. They have won these contests by an average of 6.3 points. Rider has won 14 of its last 16 home games against Canisius, and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +4
Bottom Line: The Cavs are just 6-14 ATS as a favorite this season, 4-15 ATS in home games on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons, 6-16 ATS in home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons and 4-13 ATS in home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. I just don't trust the Cavs laying this many points in a fatigued spot. Road teams off 2 consecutive home wins of 10 points or more that are up against a non-conference opponent are 23-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. Pound Utah.

5* Wiseguy MAAC Game of the Week on Manhattan -3.5
Bottom Line: This is a game Manhattan wants badly. The Jaspers were defeated by Iona in last season's MAAC Tournament championship game, and they were taken down by the Gaels again last month. Iona doesn't have the same level of motivation. It has already locked up the conference championship and has nothing to play for. Playing against road teams that scored 80 points or more last game in a conference win has resulted in an 80-47 ATS record since 1997 when they are up against a team that is off an upset loss. Additionally, Iona is an ultra-soft 1-11 ATS the last 3 seasons when off a road win of 10 points or more. Pound Manhattan.

4* Major Big West *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on UC-Irvine -3.5
Bottom Line: First place is on the line in this Big West matchup, and I give the edge to the home team. While both teams will be motivated, I see the Anteaters wanting this game just a little bit more as they are off an upset loss to Northridge and will be out for revenge for a 20-point loss to Santa Barbara in the first matchup. Home court has been the difference in this series as the home team is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings, including 3-0 in the last 3. These 8 wins have come by an average of 8.0 points.

5* Wiseguy Big West Game of the Year on Fullerton -3.5
Bottom Line: Off a big win over UC-Irvine, expect the Matadors to suffer a letdown on the road tonight. They are a poor 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games. Even worse, they are 1-7 ATS this season in road games against teams that have a losing record and have lost these games by an average of 8.0 points. Northridge's 81-75 win over Irvine is also significant because it is 0-6 ATS under coach Reggie Theus in road games after a combined score of 155 points or more. The Matadors have lost by an average of 12.5 points in this spot. The Titans have played some good ball lately at home where they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4. Pound Fullerton.

4* Major C-USA *PUNISHER* on UTEP -3
Bottom Line: I'll back the Miners laying a small number as I believe they will be the more motivated side. They lost both of last season's meetings with Tulsa so this is a game they've had circled. This is also their last home game of the season, and teams tend to give a little extra when that is the case. UTEP is 10-3 ATS this season when playing teams that have a winning record. The Miners are also 10-2 ATS this season versus good teams that outscore opponents by 4.0 ppg or more. They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The home team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the Golden Hurricane is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings at Texas-El Paso.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards +5.5
Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Wizards, who have lost each of first three matchups with Toronto. Washington is 7-0 ATS in road games this season versus teams that have a winning home record. This trend shows how competitive they've been on the highway against good teams. The Wizards are also 13-0 ATS this season in road games after playing a home game. They have won by an average of 5.5 points in this spot. Pound Washington.