Winning Sports Picks

4* Major NBA Finals GM 4 "Total" Line Mistake on Spurs/Heat UNDER 197.5

Bottom Line: Despite historic first-half shooting from the Spurs (59.4% for the game) and 51.6% shooting from Miami, we saw only 203 total points scored in GM 3. That's less than 2 3-pointers more than the number we are getting here.  I'm willing to bet my hard-earned money that neither teams shoots nearly as good in GM 4 with the law of averages kicking in and the defenses ratcheting it up a notch.  The UNDER is 12-5 in the Spurs' last 17 games following a win of more than 10 points and 7-3 in the Heat's last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  Plays UNDER on road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points that have a win percentage of 60-75% on the season and have beaten the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games has resulted in a 26-8 record the last 3 seasons.  Bet the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Heat -5

Bottom Line: Miami played well in Game 3, the Spurs just happened to set a Finals record for first-half shooting.  Because the Heat were playing catch-up from the start in Game 3 and because they know this is basically a must-win game, they will come out with the type of fury we are used to seeing from them following a loss.  The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss, and they have an average winning margin of 9.6 points in these games.  Additionally, Miami is 13-2 ATS following any home loss over the last 2 seasons and has won by an average of 13.4 points in these games.  The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Miami lost its first home game against the Spurs in last year's Finals and then won its next three.  2 of those wins came by 7+ points.  Pound the Heat.

4* Major NL Play of the Day in Giants -142

Bottom Line: The Giants have burned us the last 2 days, outhitting the Nationals in each game but going 2 for 15 with runners in scoring position.  I'll ride them one more time as the numbers remain in their favor.  They are on an 8-0 run in the 4th game of a series, and they are on a 5-0 run following defeats in the 1st 3 games of a series.  SF is 4-0 in Hudson's last 4 starts, 6-0 in his home starts and 4-0 in his day starts.  Washington is 0-3 in Treinen's 3 starts.  Hudson's teams are also 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus the Nats, and he's given up just 2 earned runs in 21 1-3 innings in these starts.

5* Wiseguy NL Non-division GAME OF THE YEAR on Giants -125

Bottom Line: The Giants have dropped the first 2 games of this 4-game set, but they are 4-0 in their last 4 Wednesday games and 6-0 in their last 6 games after losing the first 2 in a series.  Washington has been a terrible underdog investment in this price range at 15-39 in its last 54 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  The Nationals are 0-4 in Roark's last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Cain has had Washington's number in San Francisco.  The Giants are 5-0 in his last 5 home starts against the Nats, during which he's posted a 1.66 ERA.  Pound the Giants.

4* Major NL *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Giants -130

Bottom Line: The Nationals are just 14-37 in their last 51 games as a road dog.  The Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game, 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game, 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite and 6-0 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.  The Giants are 6-1 in Bumgarner's last 7 starts, 10-1 in his last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 4-0 in his last 4 starts on regular rest (4 days).  Fister has been good this season, but Bumgarner has been better.  The lefty has allowed 1 earned run or none in 5 of his last 7 starts and has an ERA of 0.82 over his last 3 starts.

4* Major NBA Finals GM 3 "Total" DOMINATOR on Spurs/Heat UNDER 198

Bottom Line: Miami tightened the screws defensively in Game 2, and the score came in under the number as a result.  We saw 194 total points scored in Game 2, and it would have been even less had the teams not gone off from 3-point land again.  The Spurs are an amazing 25 for 51 (49%) from beyond the arc in the series, but I don't see the hot shooting continuing in Miami.  The Spurs have made an average of just 5.7 3-pointers in their last 3 games in Miami. The UNDER is 25-11 in the last 36 meetings overall and 13-5 in the last 18 meetings in Miami.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GM 3 *BEST BET* on Heat -4.5

Bottom Line: The Heat are 40-9 at home this season, including 8-0 in the playoffs.  They are 29-5 at home in the playoffs since the start of the 2012 postseason and are 11-0 in their last 11 home playoff games going back to last year's Finals.  These 11 victories carry an 11.6-point average margin of victory.  The Spurs have shown some weakness on the road where they are 2-7 ATS in their last 9.  They've lost 3 of their last 4 on the road in these playoffs with the 3 defeats coming by 11, 9 and 13.  The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a winning road record.  Pound Miami.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -122

Bottom Line: Porcello has dominated the White Sox.  The Tigers are 12-1 in his last 13 starts against them, including 6-0 in the last 6.  He allowed 3 earned runs or less in each of these 13 starts.  The Tigers are also 6-0 in Porcello's last 6 starts as a road favorite and 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Noesi is 3-16 with a 5.57 ERA in 28 career starts and has an ERA of 8.30 in 2 starts versus the Tigers.  The Tigers are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Chicago.  Pound Detroit.

5* Wiseguy ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Total of the Month on Red Sox/Tigers UNDER 7.5

Bottom Line: I love the UNDER tonight with the way both these starters have been going.  Lackey has a 1.27 ERA over his last 3 starts and Sanchez has an ERA of 1.21 over his last 3 outings.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Lackey's last 6 starts and 2-0 in Sanchez's last 2 starts.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Lackey's last 6 Sunday starts, 5-0 in his last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5, 8-0-1 in his last 9 starts versus American League Central opponents and 4-0 in his last 4 starts when the opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 2-0-2 in Sanchez's last 4 starts when the opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game and 2-0-2 in Sanchez's last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 7-0-1 in Lackey's last 8 starts versus the Tigers and 2-0-1 in Sanchez's 3 career starts versus the Red Sox.  The UNDER is also 4-0 in umpire Adam Hamari's last 4 Sunday games behind home plate.  Pound the UNDER.

4* Major NBA Finals GM 2 *SUREFIRE* on Heat +4.5

Bottom Line: Miami wants a 3-peat just as badly as San Antonio wants revenge, and I'm not hesitating to back the Heat plus the points in this bounce-back spot.  The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss and 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  The Spurs are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Playing against home favorites that outscore opponents by an average of 6.0 ppg or more on the season has resulted in a 94-53 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they are up against an opponent that allowed 110 points or more in its last game.  The Heat were going good in Game 1 until LeBron James started having cramping issues.  They'll come storming back here.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Total of the Year on Heat/Spurs UNDER 199

Bottom Line: The Spurs have finished OVER the total in back-to-back games.  The Heat are 4-0-1 OVER in their last five.  These trends are significant because teams that are off 2 or more consecutive OVERS and matched up against an opponent off 4 of more consecutive OVERS are on a 125-69 UNDERS run the last 5 seasons (note: this system excludes pushes).  The UNDER is 11-5 in the Spurs' last 16 games following a win of more than 10 points and 6-1 in the Heat's last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  GM 1 would have gone under easily if the Spurs and Heat didn't combine for 25 made 3-point shots.  We hadn't seen more than 18 total 3-point makes in the previous 4 meetings so I definitely don't expect the long balls to fall so often in GM 2.  Additionally, Miami will place a big emphasis on the defensive end after allowing San Antonio to shoot 58.8% from the floor.  Pound the UNDER.

4* Major MLB Bailout Blowout on White Sox -111

Bottom Line: I'll gladly back the White Sox at this price with Chris Sale on the hill.  The White Sox are 6-1 in his starts this season, during which he has posted a 1.59 ERA and 0.596 WHIP.  The Angels are 3-10 this season versus AL starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.20 or lower.  They are also 0-4 in their last 4 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150, 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog and 0-5 in their last 5 games following a win.  The White Sox are 3-0 in Sales's last 3 starts, 4-0 in his last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 3-0 in his 3 career starts versus the Angels (0.41 ERA in these 3).  Bet Chicago.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Reds -138

Bottom Line: The Phillies snapped a 6-game skid yesterday, but I'm not hesitating to fade them here as they are 0-5 in their last 5 games following a win.  The Reds hold the advantage on the pitcher's mound with Simon, whose home ERA is 1.64 runs lower than Hernandez's road mark.  The Reds are 6-0 in Simon's last 6 starts versus teams with a losing record and 8-0 in his last 8 starts versus NL teams with a batting average of .250 or lower.  Cincy hasn't swung the bat well during its 3-game slide.  However, first half of the season home favorites of -110 or higher that have a batting average of .175 or worse over their last 3 games are 76-37 the last 5 seasons.  Pound the Reds.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Braves -110

Bottom Line: The Braves are a steal at this price considering the advantage they have on the mound with Teheran (1.83 on the season, 0.81 ERA L3 starts).  The Braves are 6-0 in Teheran's last 6 road starts versus a team with a losing record, 5-0 in his last 5 Friday starts, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 starts in game 1 of a series.  Arizona's McCarthy is having a disaster of a season (5.20 ERA on the season, 5.82 ERA L3 starts).  The Diamondbacks are 1-7 in McCarthy's last 8 home starts, 1-10 in his last 11 starts versus a team with a winning record,  0-4 in his last 4 Friday starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts versus National League East foes.  The Diamondbacks are 10-25 in their last 35 home games and 4-12 in their last 16 versus the Braves.  Pound Atlanta.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GM 1 "Total" DOMINATOR on Heat/Spurs UNDER 199

Bottom Line: When the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, playing the UNDER on teams that scored 110 points or more in 2 straight games (San Antonio) has resulted in a 24-6 (80%) record since 1996 if they are matched up against an opponent that scored 60 points or more in the first half last game.  We've seen an average of only 182.9 total points scored in this situation.  This number is off the mark considering these teams have combined for 198 points or fewer at the end of regulation in 3 of the last 4 matchups.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GM 1 PUNISHER on Spurs -4

Bottom Line: Last year's NBA Finals loss to the Heat is all the motivation the Spurs will need in Game 1.  San Antonio has been unbeatable at home in the playoffs.  It is 8-0 in its last 8 home games with a 21.5-point average margin of victory in these contests.  Each of these wins came by at least 6 points.  Additionally, the home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with an average winning margin of 11.2 points.  Pound the Spurs.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Rockies -123

Bottom Line: Colorado's skid ends tonight with Nicasio on the hill.  The Rockies are 5-1 this season in his home starts, during which he has posted a 3.60 ERA.  Nicasio is a big-time competitor, and the Rockies are 7-1 the last 8 times he's gotten the start following a team loss. 3 of the last 4 times Arroyo has gotten the start at Coors Field, the result hasn't been good.  He's given up 6 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts there.  Nicasio, meanwhile, has held the Diamondbacks to 2 earned runs or less in 3 of his last 4 home starts against them.  The Rockies are 19-6 lifetime under manager Weiss in home games when out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent.  Pound the Rockies.

4* Major Early *SUREFIRE* on Rays -146

Bottom Line: The Rays hold the advantage with Odorizzi on the hill.  He has a 2.88 ERA at home and has held the opposition to 3 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts.  Miami's Tuner has given up 4 earned or more in 6 of his last 8 starts.  The Marlins are 35-81 in their last 116 road games, 3-13 in Turner's last 16 road starts and 4-13 in the last 17 meetings with Tampa Bay.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Cardinals -133

Bottom Line: The Cardinals are 7-0 in their last 7 games after losing the first 2 games of a series, and I expect this trend to continue with Wainwright toeing the rubber.  He's been at his best on the road where he has a 1.59 ERA in 7 starts.  He's also 4-0 with a 3.10 ERA lifetime in Kansas City.  The Cardinals are 4-0 in Wainwright's last 4 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  The Royals are 0-5 in their last 5 home games versus a right-handed starter.  Wainwright should have no problem outdueling Vargas, who has a 5.26 ERA at home. The Cards are 7-0 in their last 7 at Kauffman Stadium while batting .317 and averaging 7.4 runs.  The Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.  Pound St. Louis.

5* Wiseguy Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Braves -153

Bottom Line: The Mariners are 0-5 in their last 5 versus the Braves, and I expect their struggles in the series to continue with Erasmo Ramirez on the mound.  The Mariners are 1-10 in Ramirez's last 11 starts, including 0-5 in his last 5.  They are 0-7 in his last 7 starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-9 in his last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  The Braves are a phenomenal 85-40 in their last 125 home games and 39-12 in their last 51 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  Scheduled starter Gavin Floyd has a 2.37 ERA on the season, a mark far superior to the 6.00 ERA Ramirez has posted. Additionally, Seattle is batting just .233 versus right-handed starters while Atlanta is batting .260 versus left-handed starters. Pound the Braves.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Indians +108

Bottom Line: Boston has come storming back following a lengthy skid, but I have its 7-game win streak coming to an end tonight.  The Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 home games and 39-14 in their last 53 home games versus clubs that have a losing record.  The Indians are also 8-2 in Masterson's last 10 home starts versus losing clubs, and they are 12-1 the last 2 seasons when he gets the ball following 2 or more consecutive teams wins.  The Red Sox are 2-7 in their last 9 games as a favorite, 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing mark and 0-6 in Lackey's last 6 road starts versus a losing club.  Pound Cleveland.

5* Wiseguy Sunday Night Baseball Game of the Year on Dodgers -167

Bottom Line: The Dodgers busted out the bats in a big way Saturday and now enter this Sunday night contest full of confidence and momentum.  They also have a huge edge on the mound with Greinke, who has a 2.18 ERA on the season and a 1.74 ERA over his last 3 starts. Greinke's clubs are 24-4 the last 3 seasons in his starts as a favorite of -150 or more.  The Dodgers are 10-1 in his last 11 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 17-3 in his last 20 home starts.  The Pirates have really struggled at the plate.  Their .313 on-base percentage is horrid, and the number dips to .292 on the road.  Teams that struggle to get on base have had little luck against Greinke.  His clubs are 20-2 lifetime at home versus NL teams with an on-base percentage .315 or worse.  Volquez has a 5.40 ERA on the road, and his clubs are 0-8 in his last 8 road starts.  Pound LA.

4* Major MLB "Total" Blowout on Angels/A's UNDER 7.5

Bottom Line: We've seen a lot of runs in the first 2 games of this 3-game set, but I expect that to change this afternoon.  Weaver and Gray have both been sensational and should be able to silence the opposition.  The UNDER is 20-2-2 in Weaver's last 24 starts versus the Athletics, including 11-0-1 in his last 12.  We've seen no more than 6 total runs scored in his last 12 starts versus the A's and an average of just 4.8.  Bet the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy GM 6 *BEST BET* on Thunder -158

Bottom Line: I'm taking the Thunder on the money line to rule out any sort of backdoor ATS loss in a game I fully expect them to win.  OKC has complete confidence at home where it is on a 9-0 run versus the Spurs.  All 9 wins have come by at least 6 points.  The Spurs are 0-3 in their last 3 road games, losing these contests by 11.0 points on average.  The Thunder are 4-0 in their last 4 at home, winning these by 8.5 points on average. The home team is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings with all 6 wins combing by 9 points or more.  Pound the Thunder.

5* Wiseguy MLB Run Line Game of the Month on Yankees -1.5 -108

Bottom Line: The Yankees fell 6-1 in the opener, but I'm expecting a big bounce back.  They are 9-1 this season when out for revenge for a loss where they scored 1 run or less and have won by an average of 3.0 runs in this spot.  They're also 9-1 this season after being held to 1 run or less and have won by 2.7 runs on average in this spot.  NY has the big edge on the mound with Tanaka.  They are 8-2 in his starts, during which he's posted a 2.29 ERA.  These 8 wins have come by an average of 4.0 runs.  Minnesota's Correia has a 6.34 ERA through 10 starts, and the Twins are 6-21 in his last 27 starts.  These 21 losses have come by an average of 4.0 runs.  Pound the Yanks on the run line.

4* Major NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Pacers/Heat UNDER 182.5

Bottom Line: With all that's on the line for both teams, I expect a tense, slow-paced, defensive-minded game to come in under the number.  We saw only 175 total points scored when these teams met in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last year.  The Pacers are an incredible 34-15 UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season.

5* Wiseguy GM 6 *BEST BET* on Pacers +7.5

Bottom Line: The Pacers are being undervalued on the road because of what happened in the first 2 games of this series in Miami.  They lost them both by 12 points, but they weren't facing elimination in either.  Teams staring elimination in the face tend to play with desperation.  We saw that from Indiana last game, and we saw it in their first round series against Atlanta.  After losing highly competitive series' to the Heat the past 2 seasons, Indiana made a concerted effort to get home court so that it would have the edge in another playoff series.  It knows its gets a Game 7 at home so it will leave it all on the floor tonight in hopes of getting an opportunity to play a Game 7 in its own building.  Indiana cannot stomach losing in the playoffs to the Heat 3 consecutive seasons so I'm expecting an outstanding effort.  Additionally, the Pacers have started to figure out the Heat.  After allowing Miami to shoot above 50% in the first 3 games, they have held the Heat to 46.4% and 45.3% in the last two.  Indiana has won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in 6 of the last 9 meetings and 12 of the last 19.  Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Brewers -155

Bottom Line: I'm not shying away from the Brewers at this price against a Chicago club they have dominated.  The Brewers are an amazing 59-16 in their last 75 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  They are also 24-6 in their last 30 versus the Cubs at Miller Park.  Estrada has had Chicago's number, especially at home where the Brewers are 4-0 in his last 4 starts against the Cubs.  The Cubs are 37-81 in their last 118 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 8-25 in Wood's last 33 starts versus a team with a winning record.  Pound the Brew Crew.

4* Major MLB Bailout Blowout on Dodgers -102

Bottom Line: I'll back the Dodgers at a very nice price against a Pittsburgh club that is 5-15 in its last 20 road games, 5-17 in its last 22 road games versus right-handed starters, 103-229 in its last 332 road games versus clubs with a winning record and 1-6 in their last 7 road games versus teams with a losing home record.  The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 series openers, and they are 9-0 in their last 9 home games versus the Pirates.  Taking a look back further, the Dodgers are 67-25 in the last 92 meetings and 37-14 in the last 51 home meetings.  Bet LA.

4* Major GM5 *SUREFIRE* on Spurs -4.5

Bottom Line: Look for the Spurs to bounce back strong at home where they are on a 7-0 run in these playoffs.  Each of these 7 wins came by 6 points or more with the last 6 by no less than 17 points.  The home team is a dominant 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings, including a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in the last 5.  Each of these 5 victories came by at least 9 points. 

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Finals Total of the Year on Thunder/Spurs OVER 206

Bottom Line: The last 3 games of this series have come in under the number, and we are catching a very favorable number as a result, especially in San Antonio where these teams have averaged 211.3 points over the past 4 meetings.  The Spurs are 20-7 OVER after 3 or more consecutive unders the last 3 seasons.  They are 18-9 OVER in home games when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.  The Spurs are 6-2 OVER in their last 8 home games and 12-3 OVER in their last 15 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  The Thunder are 5-0 OVER in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points.  Pound the OVER.

4* Major NBA *SUREFURE* on Pacers +3

Bottom Line: Look for Indiana to rise to the occasion and extend this series.  Home court has been too meaningful in this matchup to ignore.  The home team is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings.  Additionally, when the line is +3 to -3, home teams playing with triple revenge against an opponent off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite has resulted in a 69-37 ATS record since 1996. 

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Line Mistake on Heat/Pacers UNDER 185

Bottom Line: We've seen 186 and 192 total points scored in the last 2 games of this series, but both of those were in Miami.  These teams are on a 4-1 UNDERS run in Indiana where they have combined to average just 176.4 points during this span.  Indiana is 19-7 UNDER in home games when the total is 180.0-189.5 this season.  We've seen an average of just 181.1 total points scored in these games.  Expect a slow-paced, defensive war in this elimination game.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy Interleague Game of the Month on Cardinals -125

Bottom Line: The Yankees can't be trusted on the road with Kuroda on the mound.  They are 1-9 in his last 10 road starts.  The Cardinals are an amazing 40-15 in their last 55 home games and 10-1 in Miller's last 11 starts as a favorite.  Miller has been lights out at home where he has a 2.19 ERA this season.  St. Louis is batting .269 at home while the Yankees are hitting .246 on the highway.  Pound the Cards.

4* Major NL Play of the Day on Nationals -147

Bottom Line: The Marlins are 33-81 in their last 114 on the road, and their road struggles figure to continue with Henderson Alvarez toeing the rubber.  He has a 4.88 ERA on the road where opponents have hit .350 against him.  Miami is 1-5 in his last 6 road starts, and his clubs are 0-5 lifetime in his starts versus Washington.  While Zimmermann hasn't been as sharp lately, the Nationals have still won 4 of his last 5 starts.  They are 40-18 in his last 58 starts, 23-8 in his last 31 home starts and 7-0 in his last 7 starts versus the Marlins.

5* Wiseguy GM4 *BEST BET* on Thunder -140

Bottom Line: I fully expect the Thunder to cover the 2.5 points, but I'm taking them on the money line for insurance.  The return of Ibaka made a huge difference in Game 3, and his presence will be felt again.  Plus, coach Brooks' decision to play Reggie Jackson alongside Westbrook and to give Steven Adams extended minutes paid off as well.  We'll see more of the same tonight.  After getting Game 3, the Thunder will be lacking no confidence, especially in this building where they are 8-0 SU and ATS in their last 8 versus the Spurs.  They have won these by an average of 10.9 points.  Pound the Thunder.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +6.5

Bottom Line: Indiana is a team of response, going 31-17 ATS the last 2 seasons following a road loss.  Recently, the Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following any loss.  They have really responded well following embarrassing double-digit defeats.  In fact, they are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of 10 points or more and have won these contests by 6.0 points on average.  Prior to Game 3, these teams had traded wins in 13 consecutive games which shows how competitive this series has been.  We'll pound the Pacers catching points in this double-revenge spot.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year on Pacers/Heat UNDER 184

Bottom Line: Indiana hasn't been at its best defensively in this series, and it knows it.  That's why it is currently facing a 2-1 series deficit.  After allowing the Heat to connect on 54.4% of their shots in Game 3, the Pacers will tighten the screws tonight.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Indiana's last 6 games following a loss and 7-3 in its last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  The Pacers are 34-14 UNDER on the season when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points.  We've seen an average of just 180.8 total points scored in these games.  Miami's defense has been solid the past 2 games, holding the Pacers to just 83 and 87 points.  The Heat are 23-11 UNDER in home games after holding foes to 90 points or less in 2 straight games under coach Spoelstra.  Pound the UNDER.

4* Major MLB *BLOOD BATH* on Blue Jays -141

Bottom Line: The Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last 6, and they should keep right on rolling against a Tampa Bay club that is bringing Bedard to the rubber.  Bedard's clubs are 0-8 in his last 8 starts versus Toronto.  The Jays have hit southpaws well and are 6-0 in their last 6 versus a left-hander starter.  They are 4-0 in their last 4 series openers and 4-0 in Hutchison's last 4 starts series-opening starts.  The Rays have dropped 5 of their last 6 series openers and are 0-4 in their last 4 Monday games.  They are also an atrocious 4-18 as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Thunder -2

Bottom Line: The Spurs have looked unstoppable thus far in the series, but Kevin Durant and company won't go down without a fight.  With the home crowd behind them, the Thunder will come storming back in Game 3.  OKC is 7-0 SU and ATS in its last 7 home games versus the Spurs, winning these by 11.1 points on average.  The Spurs have been unconscious at home lately, but the road hasn't treated them nearly as well.  They are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  Pound the Thunder.

4* Major Sunday Night Baseball *BLOOD BATH* on Cardinals -143

Bottom Line: Leake has pitched well of late for Cincy, but he's no Wainwright.  The St. Louis righty has a 1.85 ERA on the season, a 1.17 ERA over his last 3 starts and a 0.69 ERA in night starts.  The Cards are a perfect 5-0 in his night starts this season.  The Cards are 41-16 in Wainwright's last 57 starts as a favorite and 17-6 in his last 23 starts as a road favorite.  Cincy is getting on base at a poor .306 clip.  This bodes extremely well for us because the Cards are 21-4 the last 2 seasons in Wainright's starts versus NL clubs with an on base percentage .315 or worse.  St. Louis has won these games by an average of 3.1 runs.  The Reds are 3-9 in their last 12 games as an underdog, 4-12 in their last 16 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, 1-5 in Leake's last 6 starts and 0-4 in his last 4 starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Bet the Cards.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Pacers +7

Bottom Line: The Pacers aren't getting the respect they deserve with this number, even if Paul George can't go.  They are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 road games, winning them by an average of 9.6 points.  They are also 7-0 in their last 7 games following a defeat, winning these contests by 7.1 points on average.  Indiana has won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 5 of its last 6 games versus Miami.  Grab the points.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Mets -118

Bottom Line: Wheeler outdueled Collmenter in Arizona earlier this season, and I expect him to do it again.  The Mets are 7-1 in their last 8 games versus teams that have won less than 40% of their games and 6-2 in Wheeler's last 8 starts versus team with a losing record.  The Diamondbacks are 3-10 in Collmenter's last 13 road starts and 0-6 in his last 6 road starts versus teams with a losing record.  The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings.  Bet the Mets.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Month on Braves -125

Bottom Line: The Rockies aren't the same team away from home.  They are 1-5 in their last 6 road games, 2-10 in their last 12 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600, 16-35 in their last 51 games as a road underdog and 21-44 in their last 65 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  The Braves are a phenomenal 83-37 in their last 120 home games.  They are even 11-1 the last 3 seasons versus NL clubs like Colorado that average 5.3 runs per game or more.  They are 8-1 the last 2 seasons versus NL clubs like the Rockies that have a team batting average of .275 or better.  The Braves are 8-1 in their last 9 versus the Rockies, including 4-0 in their last 4.  They are 38-14 in their last 52 home games versus the Rocks, including 6-0 in their last 6.  Lyles has a 5.19 ERA over his last 3 starts while Floyd has a 2.41 ERA in 3 starts this season.  Pound the Braves.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Dodgers -140

Bottom Line: The Mets have been a horrible home underdog.  They are 19-57 in their last 76 games as a home underdog and 12-42 in their last 54 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  They are 1-6 in their last 7 overall, 1-10 in their last 11 games versus a right-handed starter and 0-5 in their last five home games versus a right-handed starter.  I expect their struggles to continue against Greinke, who hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in 21 consecutive starts.  The Dodgers are 24-7 in Greinke's last 31 starts, 6-0 in his last 6 road starts versus losing clubs and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 road games versus a left-handed starter, and the Mets are 1-6 in Niese's last 7 starts as a home underdog.  The Dodgers are 11-1 in the last 12 meetings, including 6-0 in the last 6.  The Dodgers are also 8-1 in the last road 9 meetings.  Pound LA.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Thunder/Spurs UNDER 212

Bottom Line: The Thunder will make a concerted effort to keep San Antonio out of the paint after what happened in Game 1.  In order to do so, they'll play a bigger lineup, and they'll ask their smalls to do a better job of defending the drive on the perimeter.  This strategy will force the Spurs to take more perimeter shots, which should lower the shooting percentage and keep this one under the number.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the Thunder's last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 9-4 in their last 13 games following a SU loss, 11-5 in their  last 16 games following an ATS loss and 5-2 in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points. 

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +6

Bottom Line: The Spurs were able to take advantage of Ibaka being out in Game 1, but I expect the Thunder to make the necessary adjustments.  OKC went small in Game 1, but it will do so in shorter stretches tonight.  I expect Nick Collison and Steven Adams to be very active on the defensive end and on the glass.  Playing them together will allow the Thunder to match up better at the defensive end. We can't forget that the Thunder are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings and 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13.  The Thunder are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.  Pound OKC.

4* Major AL Central *SUREFIRE* on Royals -114

Bottom Line: The White Sox have won the first 2 games of the series but are just 27-57 in their last 84 road games.  Look for them to fall tonight against the Royals, who are 37-15 in their last 52 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The White Sox are 9-21 in their last 30 road games versus a right-handed starter, and they figure to struggle versus KC righty Guthrie.  The Royals are 20-7 in Guthrie's last 27 home starts, 10-4 in his last 14 starts as a home favorite and 7-2 in his last 9 starts following a team loss in their previous game.  The White Sox are 2-5 in Quintana's last 7 starts versus the Royals.  Take KC at a nice price.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year on Heat -138

Bottom Line: I'm confident the Heat will bounce back, and while I fully expect them to cover the 2.5 points, I'm protecting my investment by taking them on the money line at what I consider to be a pretty nice price.  Every point counts, especially this time of year.  The Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  They are also 26-11 ATS the last 2 seasons when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent.  The Pacers are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 games overall, 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 10 points.  Indiana is 2-11 ATS off an upset win as a home dog under coach Vogel, and it has lost by an average of 8.8 points in this spot.  When the line is +3 to -3, playing against road teams that went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game has resulted in a 37-6 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they have a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a winning team.  This system tightens up to 24-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS this season.  Pound Miami.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Heat/Pacers UNDER 185

Bottom Line: Neither team played much defense in Game 1, as evidenced by each squad shooting 51+% from the floor.  I expect a huge commitment on the defensive end from both teams here.  That's been the norm in this matchup as we saw combined scores of 184, 167, 191, 174, 175, 168 and 169 in the 7 meetings prior to Game 1.  The Pacers are 18-7 UNDER this season in home games with a total of 180 to 189.5 points.  Just 181.6 points were scored on average in these games.  Pound the UNDER.

4* Major MLB *BLOOD BATH* on Red Sox -138

Bottom Line: The Red Sox have struggled at the plate during a 4-game losing streak, but they faced 4 right-handed starters during this stretch.  Boston has been much better against southpaw starters, and it gets its wish tonight with Happ on the hill.  The Red Sox are 22-7 in their last 29 games versus a left-handed starter and are averaging 5.3 runs per game off them this year.  The Blue Jays are 4-12 in Happ's last 16 starts on 4 days' rest and 1-4 in his last 5 starts as an underdog.  Doubront struggled early but has turned in back-to-back gems. He should also benefit from having an extra day of rest.  The Red Sox are 6-1 in Doubront's last 7 starts on 5 days' rest, 6-1 in his last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 8-3 in his last 11 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Additionally, Boston is an impressive 61-30 since the start of last season following a loss.

5* Wiseguy GM1 *BEST BET* on Spurs -5.5

Bottom Line: The Spurs are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 home games with these wins coming by 23, 24, 17 and 22 points.  They are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a win of more than 10 points and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a cover.  San Antonio is 29-15 ATS the last 3 seasons in home games against winning teams in the 2nd half of the season.  It has defeated these teams by an average of 10.6 points.  The Spurs lost all 4 regular-season meetings, but Ibaka was a huge part of OKCs success in those games, especially on the defensive end.  Without Ibaka patrolling the paint, Parker and San Antonio's slashers will have a much easier time getting to the rim.  Additionally, getting swept will only add to San Antonio's level of focus in Game 1.  The favorite is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Pound the Spurs.

4* Major Sunday Night Baseball *SUREFIRE* on Red Sox -112

Bottom Line: The Tigers haven't pulled off a 3-game series sweep in Boston in nearly 21 years.  They are 16-35 in the last 51 meetings in Boston.  The reigning world champs are an impressive 74-34 in home games since 1997 following 3 or more consecutive defeats. They are 22-8 since the beginning of last season after 2 or more consecutive losses.  I expect to see some rust from Detroit's Sanchez, who hasn't take the mound since Apr. 26.  The Tigers are 3-7 in his last 10 starts, including 0-3 in his last 3.  The Red Sox are 5-0 in Peavy's last 5 starts when he gets the nod on regular rest (4 days).  Bet Boston.

5* Wiseguy GM1 *BEST BET* on Pacers +3.5

Bottom Line: The Pacers are being undervalued at home because they have looked vulnerable at times in the past two rounds.  However, we can't forget that basketball is all about matchups, and Indiana has given the Heat big problems with its size and toughness.  The Pacers looked complacent at times down the stretch of the regular season and in the first two rounds, but you can bet they won't in this series.  They knew all along the road to a championship goes through Miami, and they'll be highly focused and motivated after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Heat the past two seasons.  I'll gladly take the points considering how dominant the home team has been in this matchup.  The home side is on a perfect 8-0 run, and Indiana's home wins during this span have come by an average of 7.0 points.  Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy MLB Blowout Game of the Week on Nationals -150

Bottom Line: Gio Gonzalez has been lights out at home where he has a 1.50 ERA on the season.  The Nats are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts and have won these by 2.25 runs on average.  The Mets have managed only 28 home runs on the season, and Gonzo has abused poor power teams.  The Nationals are 11-0 the last 3 seasons in his starts versus clubs that average 0.75 home runs per game or less, and they have won these games by an average of 4.0 runs.  The Mets are among the worst offensive teams in baseball with a .229 average.  They're batting .152 during their current 3-game skid.  The Nats are 7-0 in Gonzo's last 7 starts versus the Mets, and he has posted a 1.61 ERA in these games, which Washington has won by 5.0 runs on average.  The Nats are 9-0 in their last 9 versus the Mets and have won these by 4.0 runs on average.  Pound Washington.

4* Major MLB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Angels -137

Bottom Line: The Angels get the call at home with Weaver on the rubber.  There are an amazing 83-34 all-time in his home starts, including 39-13 in his last 52.  The Rays have been a bad investment in the underdog role.  They are 16-35 the last 2 seasons as a dog of +100 or higher, including 3-16 during this span as a road dog of +125 to +175.  Weaver is really in a groove right now (1.83 ERA L3 starts) while Tampa Bay's Archer is not (7.36 ERA L3 starts).  Bet the Halos.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Royals -115

Bottom Line: The Royals are a good value at this price at home with Guthrie on the mound.  The Royals are 20-6 in his last 26 home starts and 15-2 in his last 17 home starts versus a team with a winning record.  Guthrie is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.89 in 3 starts versus his former club, and he has limited Nelson Cruz, Delmon Young, Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy, Adam Jones and Manny Machado to a combined 11 for 88 (.125).  Tillman is 1-2 with an ERA of 9.00 on 4 starts versus the Royals.  Pound Kansas City.

4* Major NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Thunder/Clippers OVER 212.5

Bottom Line: After back-to-back unders the last 2 games, the value has shifted back to the over, especially since we are getting the lowest total line of the series.  The OVER is 6-1 in the Clippers' last 7 games following a loss and 5-1 in the Thunder's last 6 games following a win.  The OVER is 7-1 in LAs last 8 home games and 19-3 in its last 22 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less.  OKC is 16-6 OVER in road games following a home game this season.  Bet the OVER.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +4.5

Bottom Line: Washington can't trusted laying this many points at home against an Indiana squad that will be highly motivated after laying an egg in Game 5.  The Wizards are 11-20 ATS as a home favorite this season and 13-26 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less the last 3 seasons.  The Wizards have won by only 0.4 points on average in these 39 instances.  The Pacers are 19-9 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons and have won these by an average of 0.9 points.  The Pacers have quietly won 4 in a row SU and ATS on the road, and I expect this trend to continue.  Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy AL Game of the Week on Blue Jays -104

Bottom Line: We are getting Toronto at a fantastic price with southpaw J.A. Happ on the hill considering how much the Indians struggle versus left-handed starters.  Cleveland is batting a dismal .208 versus lefty starters this season and is 0-7 in its last 7 road games versus a left-handed starter.  Cleveland's Salazar hasn't been the same pitcher on the road where the Indians are 0-4 in his last 4 starts.  He has a 6.45 ERA in 3 road starts this season.  Toronto should be able to get to him at home where they are averaging 5.4 runs per game.  Pound the Blue Jays.

4* Major MLB Historical *HOME RUN* on Brewers -117

Bottom Line: The Pirates are 4-11 on the road, including 0-4 in their last 4.  They are 0-4 in their last 4 versus the Brewers and 0-5 in their last 5 in Milwaukee.  The Pirates are also 30-71 in the last 101 meetings and 11-50 in the last 61 in Milwaukee.  Scheduled starter Liriano is 0-4 in his last 4 starts in Milwaukee and has compiled an ERA of 9.68 in these games.  The Brewers are 6-0 in their last 6 games versus lefty starters and are hitting .263 and averaging 4.9 runs/game against them on the season.  Milwaukee scheduled starter Peralta is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in 2 starts versus Pittsburgh.  Playing against teams that are out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent where they were held to 2 runs or less and are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 2.000 or higher over his last 3 starts has resulted in a 43-12 record the last 5 seasons.  Bet the Brew Crew.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Nets/Heat UNDER 189

Bottom Line: I fully expect to see a half-court, grind-it-out defensive battle in Game 5.  The Nets lost Game 4 as they allowed Miami to shoot 52.9% from the field, and they know they must tighten the screws if they are going to live to see another day.  I expect a very gritty performance from them.  I also expect to see Miami's killer instinct kick in.  The Heat want to end the series tonight so they can have a rest advantage against their Conference Finals foe.  They have held Brooklyn below 44% shooting 2 of the last 3 games, and they'll be dialed in defensively with a chance to punch their Conference Finals ticket.  These teams have finished UNDER the total in 6 of their last 7 meetings in Miami while combining for an average of 184 total points in these matchups so we are getting a great number here.  Pound the UNDER.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Clippers +5.5

Bottom Line: The Clippers carry a lot of momentum into Game 5 after rallying back from a 22-point deficit in Game 4 to even the series.  Despite winning the game, the Clippers failed to cover the spread, and the road team is now 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings with 4 of the wins coming outright.  The Clippers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road matchups with the Thunder and 12-4 ATS this season after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.  In a game involving teams with winning percentages of 60-75%, playing against teams like OKC that are off a cover in a game they lost straight up has resulted in a 77-40 ATS record the last 18 seasons.  Grab the points in a game that should go right down to the wire.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Reds -113

Bottom Line: The Padres are 6-10 on the road where they are batting a dismal .201.  They are 0-4 in Cashner's last 4 starts (4.50 ERA L3 starts) and 0-3 in his road starts this season (5.00 ERA in these).  The Padres have failed to score the last 3 times Cashner has gotten the ball.  They are 2-8 in his last 10 starts as an underdog and 1-5 in his last 6 starts as a road underdog.  San Diego lost 7-2 in Cincinnati last season in Cashner's lone start versus the Reds.  He allowed 5 runs in 5 innings in the start.  The Reds have been strong at home where they are 8-3 in their last 11.  Leake has also been the victim of poor run support, but he has been sharper than Cashner.  He has a 3.07 ERA at home and a 3.27 ERA over his last 3 starts.  The Reds are 5-2 in Leake's last 7 home starts.  Leake faced the Padres twice last season and only allowed 1 earned run in 14 innings.  The Padres are 4-9 in the last 13 meetings and 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Cincinnati.  Pound Cincy.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pacers UNDER 181

Bottom Line: When the total line is between 180 and 189.5 points, plays UNDER on home teams with a winning percentage of 60-75% that are off 2 or more consecutive road wins has resulted in a 75-36 record the last 18 seasons.  We've seen just 179.4 total points scored in these games on average.  Indiana is 28-19 UNDER at home this season, including 17-6 UNDER at home when the total line is between 180 and 189.5 points.  Washington is 28-15 UNDER the last 3 seasons in road games when playing with double revenge.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams in Indiana.  Pound the UNDER.

4* Major NBA Playoffs *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Blazers +4

Bottom Line: Playing against favorites that are leading in a playoffs series has resulted in a 36-12 ATS record since 1996, provided they have a win percentage of 75% or greater and are playing a team with a win percentage of 60% to 75%).  This system tightens up to 5-1 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  The Spurs are still 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 4-10 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Portland, and they are laying too many points here against a team that will be playing desperate.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs "Total" Blowout on Spurs/Blazers UNDER 211

Bottom Line: Each of the first 3 games of this series have gone over the totals, and the Spurs have finished over the number in 6 straight going back to their first round series.  We are getting an excellent number here as a result, especially since the first 2 games of this series were below and at this number.  Playing the UNDER on any team after 3 or more consecutive overs that is up against an opponent off 4 or more consecutive overs has resulted in a 73-33 record the last 5 seasons.  When the total is greater than or equal to 210, playing the UNDER on any team that has given up 110 points or more in 3 consecutive games and is coming off a game with a combined score of 205 points or more has resulted in a 35-15 ATS record the last 5 seasons.  When the total is greater than or equal to 200, playing the UNDER on road teams that are off a win of 15 points or more and are up against an opponent off a loss of 15 points or more has resulted in a 36-12 record the last 5 seasons.  Additionally, the Spurs are 17-3 UNDER after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons.  Pound the UNDER.

4* Major MLB *HISTORICAL HOME RUN* on Rangers -125

Bottom Line: I'll back the Rangers at a great price given the amount of history in their favor.  The Rangers are 13-1 in their last 14 versus Houston and have outscored the Astros 81-37 during this stretch.  The Rangers are 41-11 in the last 52 meetings, and 19-3 in the last 22 in Houston.  Texas is 3-0 in Lewis' last 3 starts versus the Astros with 2 of the wins coming in Houston.  The Astros are 0-2 in Peacock's starts versus the Rangers.  Peacock has had terrible control problems which have led to a 1.588 WHIP in his starts.  Texas is 13-0 the last 2 seasons versus AL pitchers who have a WHIP of 1.500 to 1.600 in their starts.  The Rangers have defeated these teams by 3.9 runs on average.

4* Major ESPN Sunday Night Baseball *SUREFIRE* on Cardinals -104

Bottom Line: The Cardinals haven't lost 3 straight all season, going 5-0 following 2 straight losses.  They are also 5-0 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series and an awesome 70-32 in their last 102 games following a loss period.  The Cardinals are 3-0 in Shelby Miller's last 3 starts and 9-1 in his last 10 starts versus clubs that have a losing record.  The Pirates have lost 4 of Charlie Morton's last 5 starts, and he has a terrible track record versus St. Louis (6.26 ERA in 15 starts).  The Pirates are 0-8 in Morton's last 8 starts versus the Cardinals and 0-4 in his last 4 home starts versus them.  Miller has had some struggles with Pittsburgh, but his 4.91 ERA against them is considerably better than Morton's mark.  Plus, Miller just threw 5 2-3 innings of shutout baseball in a win over the Pirates Apr. 25.  He's allowed 3 earned runs or less in 4 of 6 starts versus the Pirates while Morton has been hammered for 5 earned runs in 3 of his last 5 starts versus the Cards.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Wizards OVER 180

Bottom Line: The Wizards are 24-10 OVER the last 18 seasons when out for revenge for a home loss of 20 points or more.  We have seen an average of 202 total points scored in these games.  Washington is also 18-6 OVER after 2 straight games where both it and its opponent scored 90 points or less the last 18 seasons.  We've seen 196.8 total points scored on average in these contests.  Indiana is 21-8 OVER in road games off a road win under coach Vogel, and we've seen an average of 195 total points in these games. The Wizards let the Pacers dictate a slow pace the last 2 games, and it cost them.  Washington had a lot of success pushing the ball against the Bulls in its opening series, and it will look to do that here because it knows without a doubt that doing so gives it the best chance to win.  An increased tempo greatly favors the OVER. Pound the OVER.

5* Wiseguy GM4 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wizards -4.5

Bottom Line: Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 92-98 ppg and have held their opponent to 90 points or less in 2 straight games has resulted in a 43-12 ATS record the last 18 seasons if they are up against a team that allows 98-102 ppg.  This system tightens up to 13-1 ATS the last 5 seasons.  Indiana is 0-9 ATS in road games after scoring 90 points or less in 2 straight games under coach Vogel.  It has lost these contests by an average of 12.6 points.  The Wizards are 29-11 ATS the last 2 seasons when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent.  Pound the Wizards.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Thunder/Clippers UNDER 215.5

Bottom Line: The Clippers fit into a totals system that has been hitting at a high rate for years.  When the total is greater than or equal to 210, playing the UNDER on teams playing with double revenge has resulted in a 42-17 record the last 18 seasons if they are matched up against an opponent that is off an upset victory.

5* Wiseguy GM4 *BEST BET* on Clippers -4.5

Bottom Line: We'll lay the points with the Clippers at home in this bounce-back spot behind some compelling evidence.  The Clippers are 16-3 ATS this season when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent.  They have won by an average of 13.0 points in these games.  The Clipps are also 14-2 ATS this season following an upset defeat and have won these contests by an average of 12.9 points.  Lastly, LA is 12-3 ATS this season after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.  It has won by an average of 14.2 points in this spot.  Pound LA.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Blazers +1.5

Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, playing home teams that are playing with triple revenge has resulted in a 69-36 ATS record the last 18 seasons if they are matched up against an opponent that is off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.  The Blazers are 9-2 in their last 11 home games versus the Spurs, and they are an impressive 51-31 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less the last 18 seasons.

4* Major NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Spurs/Blazers UNDER 209.5

Bottom Line: When the total is greater than or equal to 200 in the 3rd game of a playoff series, playing the UNDER has resulted in a 68-32 record the last 18 seasons.  Additionally, when the total is greater than or equal to 200, playing the UNDER on road teams off a win of 15 points or more that are up against an opponent off a loss of 15 points or more has resulted in a 36-11 record the last 5 seasons.  The Spurs are 9-1 UNDER after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better this season.  They are also 8-1 UNDER in road games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite this season.

4* Major MLB Saturday Night *SUREFIRE* on Royals -120

Bottom Line: KCs Ventura entered the season as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and he's living up to the hype (2.00 ERA on the season, 1.71 ERA on the road, 1.42 ERA L3 starts).  A Seattle club that is batting just .193 at home will have all kinds of trouble against Ventura, just like it did last Sept. when he held them to 2 hits in 5 2-3 innings.  Chris Young is pitching better than expected early, but he clearly doesn't have the same caliber stuff as Ventura.  The Royals, who are hitting .260 against righty starters, should be able to get to him.  The Royals are 30-10 in their last 40 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 24-9 in their last 33 games as a road favorite.  Plays against AL home dogs with a money line of +100 or higher that are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.300 to 1.400 in his starts and average 0.9 HRs per game of less has resulted in a 70-21 record since 1997 if they are facing a starting pitcher who allows 0.5 HRs or less per start.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Semifinals Game of the Year on Nets +1.5

Bottom Line: The Nets are down 0-2, but they aren't about to go down without a fight.  I fully expect this experienced group to bounce back at home in Game 3.  The Nets are 18-3 at home since February.  Plus, they are 10-1 ATS this season in home games when playing with double revenge and have won these games by an average of 8.5 points.  They are also a perfect 9-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after 2 straight losses of 10 points or more and have won these contests by an average of 12.2 points.  Pound Brooklyn.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +4.5

Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with the superior defensive team.  The Pacers have held the opposition to 41.7% shooting or worse in 6 of their last 8 games.  Washington has held its opponents below the 41.7% mark just 2 times in its last 10 games.  Indiana gets in trouble when it gets too reliant on the 3-point shot.  It has diagnosed itself.  It only attempted 12 3's in Game 2 and made an extra-effort to go inside.  It paid off, and I expect the Pacers to stick with the same game plan.  The underdog has now covered each of the past 3 meetings and 5 of the last 7, and I expect this trend to continue.  Pound the Pacers.

4* Major MLB *BLOOD BATH* on Rays -112

Bottom Line: I missed with the Rays yesterday as they went just 1 for 12 with runners in scoring position, but I expect them to come ready to play this evening after getting swept by Baltimore.  The Indians haven't been the same team on the road where they are on a 0-7 slide.  They are 0-6 in their last 6 games as a road underdog, 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog, 0-5 in their last 5 road games versus a right-handed starter, 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing record and 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing home record.  Additionally, the Tribe is 0-7 in Kluber's last 7 starts versus the American League East.  They are 0-3 in his road starts this season, and he's compiled a 5.87 ERA in these games.  While Odorizzi has struggled, he's been solid at home where he has 3.86 ERA.  The Indians are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings and 5-14 in the last 19 meetings in Tampa Bay.

5* Wiseguy GM2 *BEST BET* on Blazers +7

Bottom Line: Road teams that score an average of 103 points per game or more on the season are 39-12 ATS the last 18 seasons if they trailed by 20 points or more at halftime of their last game.  This system tightens up to 7-1 ATS the last 3 seasons.  Even with the Game 1 loss, the Blazers have still won 4 of the last 7 meetings.  And, they have lost by more than 7 points just twice in the last 8 meetings with the Spurs.  Pound Portland.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Rays -167

Bottom Line: The Rays are 8-2 in their last 10 games after losing the first 2 games of a series, and I expect them to build on this trend with ace David Price on the hill.  The Rays are an impressive 52-25 in his last 77 starts versus the American League East.  He's 7-2 with an ERA of 2.70 in 16 career starts versus Baltimore.  The Orioles are 0-4 in Jimenez's division starts this season, and he's compiled an ERA of 6.75 in these games.  Pound the Rays.

4* Major GM2 *SUREFIRE* on Nets +8

Bottom Line: The Nets ran into a buzz saw in Game 1 as they were still emotionally and physically drained from their opening series.  This veteran Nets squad is playoff-tested, and it will be motivated by the poor performance in Game 1, and it won't be lacking any confidence having won each of the 4 regular season battles.  Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games following a loss or more than 10 points.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Heat/Nets UNDER 192

Bottom Line: 193 total points were scored in Game 1 as these two teams inched over the total, which was set at 192.  But, the pace favored the under.  Miami shot well above normal (56.8%), and the Nets also shot above their season average (47.1%).  Plus, the teams combined for 19 3-point makes.  The Nets average only 8 3-point makes per game on the road, and Miami averages 8 per game at home.  Look for the defensive intensity to pick up in Game 2, and the shots not to fall as easily.  Brooklyn is 19-5 UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.  An average of only 188.1 points have been scored in these games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams in Miami.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Clippers/Thunder UNDER 215

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER on road teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200, after a blowout win of 15 points or more and up against an opponent after a blowout loss of 15 points or more, has resulted in a 35-11 record the last 5 seasons.  Additionally, playing the UNDER on home teams when the total is greater than or equal to 210, a team out for revenge for a loss where they allowed 100 points or more and up against an opponent off an upset win of 10 points or more, has resulted in a 29-7 record since 1996.  Bet the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy GM2 *BEST BET* on Thunder -5.5

Bottom Line: The Thunder have been an awesome investment when out for revenge for an upset defeat under coach Brooks, going 54-33 ATS in this spot.  In this spot at home the last 2 seasons, they are 17-7 ATS with an average winning margin of 10.9 points.  Teams headed up by coach Rivers are a dismal 36-59 ATS all-time following a road win of 10 points or more.  The Thunder, meanwhile, are 44-26 ATS under Brooks when out for revenge for a loss of 10 points or more.  Pound OKC.

4* Major Interleague *SUREFIRE* on Red Sox -160

Bottom Line: I'll stick with the Red Sox tonight despite the increased price because of how sharp Peavy has been.  The former Cy Young winner has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 5 of his 6 starts. His clubs are 9-1 lifetime in his starts against the Reds, and he's compiled an ERA of 2.14 in these games.  They are 5-0 all-time in his home starts versus Cincy.  Cincy's Leake hasn't been as solid.  He's allowed 3 earned runs or more in four of six starts this season and has given up 4 earned in 2 of his last 3 starts.  He's also given up 4 earned in 3 of his 4 road starts.  The Reds are 0-3 in his last 3 starts and 2-7 in his last 9 road starts.  The Reds are 0-4 in their last 4 road games and 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Boston.

4* Major GM2 *SUREFIRE* on Pacers -4.5

Bottom Line: Even though the Pacers lost Game 1 of this series, I'm not going to jump ship when they're on their home floor.  The home team is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings, and the Pacers are 12-1 in the last 13 home meetings.  In terms of the spread, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Pacers are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 home meetings.  The Pacers were outrebounded 65-46, and I don't see that happening again.  They had won the rebounding battle in each of the previous 7 matchups.  Bet the Pacers.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pacers UNDER 215

Bottom Line: The UNDER is 29-11 in Indiana's games this season when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, including 16-6 at home.  The Pacers are 12-3 UNDER this season at home when the total is between 185 and 189.5 points, and we have seen just 179.0 total points scored on average in these 15 contests.  Bet the UNDER.

4* Major Interleague *SUREFIRE* on Red Sox -119

Bottom Line: Cincy's Bailey is 2-6 with a 6.26 ERA in 10 interleague outings since 2010.  The Reds are 2-8 in these games.  They are also 1-8 in Bailey's last 9 starts as a road underdog and 1-11 in their last 12 interleague games as an underdog.  Boston's Doubront has a 2.25 ERA while going 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus the NL.  Bet Boston.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Heat -7

Bottom Line: Despite losing each of the 4 regular-season meetings with Brooklyn, Miami is laying quite a few points.  That's because Miami will be extremely fresh following a week off and highly focused as it looks to make a statement to Brooklyn that the playoffs are a different animal.  This line is significant because favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent are 54-27 ATS the last 18 seasons if they are up against a team that is off an upset win over a division foe.  Additionally, favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off 2 consecutive wins against a division foe are 39-16 ATS the last 5 seasons.  After a grueling 7-game series, the Nets will run out of gas in the second half.  Pound Miami.

4* Major GM1 "Total" BAILOUT on Clippers/Thunder UNDER 213

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 on all teams that are out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent has resulted in a 34-12 record the last 5 seasons if the matchup features teams with winning percentages of 60-75%.  We've seen an average line of 209.6 in these contests but only 199.6 total points scored on average.  We saw just 208 total points scored the last time these teams met so this line is being influenced by the recent scoring outputs of each team.  But consider that OKC is 12-2 UNDER the last 2 seasons after scoring 120 points or more and the Clippers are 4-1 UNDER in their last 5 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Indians -149

Bottom Line: The Indians are 29-10 at home the last 2 seasons when priced at -125 to -175 and 16-4 at home during this span when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 46-49%.  The Tribe is 17-3 the last 3 seasons versus clubs starting a pitcher who strikes out an average of 3 batters per start of less.  Minnesota's Gibson isn't a high-volume strikeout guy, and the Indians have thrived against such pitchers.  Gibson has an ERA of 9.00 on the road this season, and he's given up 12 runs over his last 2 starts spanning just 9 2-3 innings.  The Twins are 0-4 in Gibson's last 4 starts on regular rest (4 days).  McAllister's last two outings were rough (not as bad as Gibson's last 2) but both were on the road.  He's been a different pitcher at home where he has a 1.32 ERA.  The Indians are 5-1 in McAllister's last 6 home starts, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite and 7-1 in his last 8 starts on 4 days' rest.  The Twins are 3-0 in McAllister's last 3 starts versus the Twins.  Gibson beat the Indians earlier this season, but the second time around won't go as smoothly now that they are more familiar with him.  Minnesota hasn't seen McAllister yet this season, and that is to his benefit.  The Twins are 2-7 in the last 9 meetings.  Pound Cleveland.

5* Wiseguy GM1 *BEST BET* on Pacers -4

Bottom Line: Home court has been huge when these teams get together.  The home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with each of the wins coming by at least 8 points.  Home court has especially been huge for the Pacers when facing the Wizards.  Indiana is 12-0 in its last 12 at home versus Washington with all 12 wins coming by at least 4 points.  Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy ESPN Sunday Night Baseball *BEST BET* on Cardinals -141

Bottom Line: The Cardinals are 68-31 in their last 99 games following a loss, 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first 2 games of a series and 26-4 in their last 30 when out for revenge for a loss as a road favorite.  They are 28-11 in Lynn's last 39 starts versus National League Central foes, 5-1 in his last 6 road starts and 16-6 in his last 22 starts following a team loss.  The Cubs are only 16-33 in their last 49 home games, 16-39 in their last 55 games following a win, 13-40 in their last 53 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game and 15-43 in their last 58 games versus a right-handed starter.  They are also just 3-7 in their last 10 versus St. Louis.  Pound the Cards.

4* Major "Total" Dominator on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 198

Bottom Line: Not much defense was played in Game 6 as both teams shot over 50% from the field.  That will change here.  In Game 1, when both teams were trying to establish themselves in the series, neither shot better than 43.2% and only 175 total points were scored.  I expect buckets to be tough to come by in this one as well with a place in the 2nd round at stake.  Playing the UNDER on road teams that are off an upset win over a division rival, provided they are a winning team playing another winning team and the total line is 190-199.5, has resulted in a 31-9 record since 1996.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs -6

Bottom Line: Look for San Antonio to take care of business at home in Game 7.  The Spurs are 9-1 in their last 10 home games versus the Mavs with the wins coming by an average of 14.3 points.  The Spurs are 23-12 ATS off an upset loss over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 10.0 points in this spot.  They are also 64-46 ATS in home playoff games under coach Popovich, winning these games by an average of 7.0 points.  Pound the Spurs.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +8

Bottom Line: I believe odds makers aren't giving enough respect to a Memphis team that held Oklahoma City to 39.8% shooting or worse in Games 2-5.  Each of those 4 games went to OT, and I'm expecting another tight game with a place in the Western Conference Semis on the line.  Memphis has won or lost by fewer than 8 points in 12 of its last 16 versus the Thunder.  The Grizz are 14-6 ATS following a loss, 5-1 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points, 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 first-round playoff games and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 at OKC.  The Thunder are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-3-1 in their last 4 in this series.  Pound Memphis.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Reds -153

Bottom Line: Riding the golden arm of Johnny Cueto here.  The Cincy right-hander has an ERA of 1.15 on the season and an ERA of 0.35 over his last 3 starts.  The Reds are 9-0 in his last 9 home starts versus teams with a winning record and 7-0 in his last 7 home starts versus the Brewers.  He has allowed 3 runs or fewer in each of these 7 wins (2 runs or less in 6 of them), which have come by an average of 2.6 runs.  Gallardo has a 4.35 ERA in 20 starts versus the Reds, and the Brewers are 3-8 in his last 11 starts in Cincinnati.  Pound the Reds.

5* Wiseguy AL Game of the Week on Royals -143

Bottom Line: The Royals are 40-17 when the money line is -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons, and I expect them to build on this streak with Shields stepping to the mound.  The right-hander has a 2.02 ERA on the season and a 1.71 ERA over his last 3 starts.  The Royals are 21-8 in Shields' last 29 starts, 17-4 in his last 21 starts as a favorite, 10-2 in his last 12 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus a team with a winning record.  Detroit's Porcello has an ERA of 3.96 on the season, an ERA of 4.91 over his last 3 starts and a 7.15 ERA on the road.  The Tigers are 5-11 in Porcello's last 16 starts versus a team with a winning record and 1-4 in his last 5 starts as an underdog.  The Tigers are a poor 4-10 in their last 14 games as an underdog and 2-5 in their last 7 games in Kansas City.  Pound KC.

4* Major NBA Playoffs *BLOOD BATH* on Nets -4.5

Bottom Line: At home, where they have won 17 of their last 20 (17 wins came by 10.9 points on average), I expect the Nets to extend this series.  The Nets are an impressive 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games versus teams that have a winning record.  Additionally, they have thrived in highly motivated spots such as this one.  When at home and out for revenge for two straight losses to an opponent, they are 9-1 ATS this season with an average margin of victory of 8.0 points.  This is the type of game where having experienced winners like Paul Piece and Kevin Garnett really pays off. Bet the Nets.