Winning Sports Picks

5* Wiseguy NFC North Total of the Month on Vikings/Packers UNDER 48.5

Bottom Line: I love the UNDER in tonight's NFL matchup. Plays on the UNDER when the total if 42.5-49 points in a matchup of average offensive teams that score 18-23 ppg after playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored has resulted in a 120-63 record since 1983. The Green Bay defense is trending in the right direction, giving up 19 and 17 points the last 2 weeks against much more explosive offensive teams (Lions and Bears). Minnesota scored 41 last week but that was against an Atlanta defense that is among the worst in the NFL. Pound the UNDER.

4* Major CFB *BEST BET* on UCF +3.5

Bottom Line: UCF is more battle tested having taken the field against Penn State and Mizzou. Houston did play BYU but gave up 523 yards to the Cougars and trailed 23-0 before they called off the dogs. UCF won last season's meeting by 5 points despite losing the turnover battle. UCF led the game by 12 points late in the 4th. Road underdogs that average 4.8 to 5.6 yards per play and allowed 225 total yards or less last game are 27-6 ATS the last  10 seasons when they are matched up against a team that gives up 4.2 to 4.8 yards per play. This system is a dominant 10-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams headed up by coach O'Leary are 11-1 ATS lifetime  in road games off a home blowout win of 28 points or more. Bet UCF.

4* Major NL WILD CARD *BLOOD BATH* on Pirates +102

Bottom Line: The Pirates are showing plenty of value at home in the underdog role. We're talking about a team that is 17-6 in its last 23 games and 39-18 in its last 57 home games. The Pirates are even 35-16 in their last 51 home games versus teams like the Giants that have a winning road record. The Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 road games and 5-12 in their last 17 road games versus a team with a winning record. There's nothing bad I can say about Bumgarner. He's had a great season. What I can say is that Volquez has been even better down the stretch. The right-hander is 5-0 with a 1.64 ERA over his last 11 starts. He's given up 1 earned run or none in 7 of his last 10 starts and more than 2 earned runs just once during this span. That was a 3 earned run effort. Going back a little further, he has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 16 of his last 17 starts, giving up 1 or none 11 times during this span. Volquez's teams are 20-6 the last 3 seasons in his 2nd half of the season starts versus NL foes with a batting average of .255 or lower. The Giants are 3-7 in Bumgarner's last 10 starts versus teams with a winning record. The Giants are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings and 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in Pittsburgh. Bet the Pirates.

4* Major AL Wild Card *BLOOD BATH* on Royals -103

Bottom Line: The A's really struggled down the home stretch of the regular season. They are just 7-16 in their last 23 road games, 6-15 in their last 21 games versus winning clubs, 7-20 in their last 27 road games versus winning clubs and 3-13 in their last 16 road games versus teams with a winning home record.  Oakland hasn't been a good postseason play either. It is 4-10 in its last 14 playoff games and 1-5 in its last 6 postseason road games. Kansas City is making its first playoff appearance in nearly 3 decades, but this team doesn't have a just-happy-to-hear attitude. The Kauffman crowd will be electric tonight, and the Royals are in great hands with Shields. They are 39-18 in his last 57 starts, 28-10 in his last 38 starts on regular rest (4 days), 8-2 in his last 10 starts following a quality start in his last appearance, 7-1 in his last eight starts versus AL West foes and 4-0 in his last four starts as an underdog. The Royals are 19-7 this season at home when the money line is +100 to -125 and 11-4 this season in Shields starts when the money line is +125 to -125. I expect Lester to be solid for Oakland, but I don't expect him to get enough run support, which has been a big issue for the A's since trading Cespedes. Bet the Royals.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Patriots -2.5

Bottom Line: The Patriots are showing value laying less than a field goal at Arrowhead where the Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. Kansas City has lost their last 4 at home straight up by an average of 10.5 points. New England has yet to get its offense going the way we are used to seeing, but I like its chances of doing so against a KC defense that has been very mediocre thus far. The KC offense has struggled every bit as much as New England's offensive unit, and it will have a tough time getting much of anything against a New England defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in yards allowed per game (272.7). Playing road teams with a +3 to +7 ppg differential that are up against a team with a +3 to -3 ppg differential, provided the road team has allowed 17 points or less in its last 2 games, has resulted in a 23-4 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system tightens up to 9-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Pound the Pats.

4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Saints -3

Bottom Line: New Orleans has owned the Cowboys. It is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings, including 4-0 in Dallas during this span. It racked by 625 yards in last season's 49-17 win over the Boys, and I expect an encore performance. The Cowboys are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 versus teams with a losing record and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games versus teams with a losing road record. The Saints are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 versus a team with a winning record.

4* Major *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Vikings +3

Bottom Line: While this wouldn't be a shocking upset according to the spread, it would be according to public perception. Atlanta hasn't been the same team on the road, and I believe it is in serious danger here.  The Falcons are 1-8 in their last 9 road games with the lone win during this stretch coming by 3 points in OT. In other words, Atlanta has failed to cover this number in its last 9 road games. That's a 9-0 trend in our favor. Additionally, Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in home games the last 22 years versus teams that have outscored their opponent by 10.0 ppg or more on the season.

4* Major Late Afternoon *SUREFIRE* on Jaguars +14

Bottom Line: The Jags have lost the ugly the first 3 weeks, but I believe they are a surefire winner catching big points Sunday. Playing any team with a win percentage of 25% or less after being beaten by the spread by more than 7 points in 3 consecutive games has resulted in a 28-8 ATS record the last 10 seasons.

4* Major NFL *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Titans +7.5

Bottom Line: This line is off the mark. Tennessee has won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in 6 of its last 8 matchups with Indy. Tennessee is on an 11-2 ATS run after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games.  And, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that score 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 28-8 ATS the last 5 seasons (16-2 ATS the last 3 seasons).

4* Major NFL *PUBLIC MASSACRE* on Bucs +9

Bottom Line: The public is piling on the Steelers early, and I expect that to continue to be the case right up to kickoff. However, I think the Steelers get the public burned here. Playing on poor offensive teams like Tampa Bay that average 14-18 ppg after a loss by 21 points or more has resulted in a 24-4 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are up against a team like the Steelers that allow 23-27 ppg. This system is 8-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Additionally, the Steelers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a win of more than 14 points.

5* Wiseguy NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on Jets +2

Bottom Line: The Lions are an ugly 8-22 ATS as road chalk the last 22 years, including 4-13 ATS in this as a road fave of 3 points or less. The Jets 16-6 ATS after playing on Monday night football since 1992 and 18-4 ATS in home games off a home loss since 1992. Pound New York.

5* Wiseguy NFC North Game of the Year on Packers -118

Bottom Line: Green Bay is in a foul mood following a 1-2 start, and I expect it to come storming back against a Chicago Bears team it has owned.  Green Bay is 32-13 versus the Bears since 1992 and 18-5 in Chicago during this span. Chicago is 0-6 ATS under Trestman in home games when playing with 6 or less days' rest. It is also 0-6 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.  Green Bay is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last 4 at Soldier Field.  Pound the Packers.

5* Wiseguy ACC Coastal Game of the Year on Miami -7

Bottom Line: This is a game I had circled before the season began, and Miami's loss at Nebraska last week adds even more value to this play. Prior to last season's loss at Duke, the Hurricanes were 8-0 against the Blue Devils since joining the ACC. These 8 wins came by an average of 19.1 points. You can bet the Hurricanes haven't forgotten about the 18-point butt-kicking they received at Duke last year, and they'll be out for some serious payback. Miami has been extremely reliable at home where it is 10-1 in its last 11 with the 10 wins coming by an average of 24.4 points. Miami is 4-0 lifetime in home conference contests versus Duke, winning them by 27 ppg. Each of these 4 have come by double digits. Pound Miami.

4* Major MLB *BEST BET* on White Sox +1.5 -113

Bottom Line: Danks has owned the Royals. He's posted a 2.42 ERA against them in 15 career starts. And get this, the White Sox have won or lost by a single run in all 15 of those starts so I feel very comfortable taking the 1.5 runs. The Royals have won by 2 runs or more in just 3 of Duffy's last 13 starts. Grab runs with the Sox Saturday.

4* Major CFB *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Air Force +13

Bottom Line: Air Force has a legit opportunity to win this game outright as a double-digit dog. Boise State won last season's home meeting by 22 as it held the Falcons to 99 yards passing.  While Air Force remains a run-heavy team, its passing attack is greatly improved and should have a big impact here. Plus, Air Force has had an extra week to prepare for this battle and should have a few tricks up its sleeve.  Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that have a win percentage of 60-80% and are off a no-cover victory are 33-9 ATS the last 10 seasons if they are matched up against a team with a winning record. This system is 17-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Broncos are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 versus teams with a winning record, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win of more than 20 points and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet Air Force.

4* Major *DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH* on Rice -9.5

Bottom Line: Look for 0-3 Rice to take its frustrations out all over So. Miss. After losses at Notre Dame and Texas A&M, Rice was upset at home by Old Dominion last week. You better believe that defeat isn't sitting well. Rice possessed the ball 15 minutes more than Old Dominion but gave up too many big plays through the air. The Owls have a much more favorable matchup this week because the Golden Eagles don't have an explosive passing attack.  Teams have ran at will on So. Miss this season averaging 255 yards per game on 5.9 yards per carry. Rice has had a ton of success on the ground (222 ypg), and I expect it to run wild on the Golden Eagles. The Golden Eagles are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 conference games and 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 versus teams with a losing record.

4* Major Big Ten Game of the Week on Northwestern +10.5

Bottom Line: Penn State is 0-6 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 14.3 points in this spot. Additionally, playing against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that give up an average of 3.25 rushing yards or less per carry and allowed 1 or less rushing yards per carry last game has resulted in a 23-3 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Bet Northwestern.

4* Major *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Tulane +12

Bottom Line: Oddsmakers have missed the mark with this line. Off a big upset win at Navy and with Ohio State on deck, Rutgers will have a difficult time focusing on the task at hand. Tulane is better than its 1-3 record looks. It should be 2-2 (blew a 14-0 lead at Tulsa). It put up nearly 400 yards of offense on Duke last week but was done in by 5 giveaways. The Scarlet Knights are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 versus losing teams. Tulane is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 following an ATS loss. It is also 8-1 ATS under coach Johnson in weeks 5-9. Bet Tulane.

4* Major on CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on MTSU +4

Bottom Line: MTSU's 19-point SU and ATS loss at Memphis last week bodes well for us as it is 8-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the number the last 3 seasons and has won by an average of 9.8 points in this spot. This is too many points for ODU to be laying considering how porous it has been defensively. It's given up 223 rushing yards per game the last 3 weeks and had no answer for the Hampton, NC State or Rice passing attacks. The Blue Raiders have a balanced offense that should really give the Monarchs fits. This one has the makings of a shootout, and I'll gladly grab the points.

5* Wiseguy AL East Game of the Month on Red Sox -108

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from the Yankees following last night's Cinderella ending for Jeter. I just don't see New York being in this one mentally after that. With the postseason not a possibility, the Yanks would have rather ended the season after last night's win. Playing home teams that have been outscored by 0.5 runs per game or more on the season and are off 2 straight wins of 4 runs or more, has resulted in a 31-15 record the last 5 seasons. Pound Bean Town.

5* Wiseguy Pac-12 Game of the Month on UCLA -4

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Bruins, who allowed ASU to clinch the Pac-12 South on their turf last season. ASU returns just 8 starters from last year's squad while UCLA brings back 17. It looks like Hundley will go for the Bruins, but Kelly will not be under center for the Sun Devils. Regardless if Hundley plays, UCLA has edges at other positions all over the field. The Bruins have not played to their potential yet this season but should have no problem getting up for this game. Additionally, UCLA's first 3 foes have provided a much bigger test than ASU's. Facing Virginia and Texas does a lot more to prepare a team than facing New Mexico and Colorado. The Bruins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Pound UCLA.

4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Redskins -3

Bottom Line: Washington lost a tough in Philadelphia last week but will have no problem getting up for this game after getting swept by the Giants last year. Playing favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that average 125-150 rushing yards per game has resulted in a 74-38 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are up against a team that allows 95-125 rushing yards per game (while I recommend buying down to key number 3, I still like this play at 3.5 - the widely available number at the time of this report - and that's why this system applies). Washington didn't do a very good job of establishing the run against Philadelphia. I expect it to do so here to set up some easy play-action opportunities. The Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings with Washington. Bet the Redskins.

4* Major MLB Play of the Day on Royals -140

Bottom Line: The Sox are 0-4 in Quintana's last 4 starts versus the Royals. They are 0-5 lifetime in his home starts against Kansas City. The Royals are 4-0 in Shields' last 4 road starts versus the White Sox, which comes as no surprise because Big Game James has been awesome on the road. The Royals are 25-5 in Shields' last 30 road starts. The White Sox are 1-7 in Quintana's last 8 home starts versus teams with a winning record. Bet KC.

4* Major Big 12 *BLOOD BATH* (ESPN) on Texas Tech +14

Bottom Line: Texas Tech was down 21-0 before it knew what happened in last season's meeting with Oklahoma State. It appeared to be hungover following a tough loss at Oklahoma that dropped it to 7-1. It was able to climb back within 4 points by halftime but couldn't get anything going in the second half.  The Red Raiders will be focused this time around, knowing they can't afford to get off to another slow start. Last week's disappointing home loss to Arkansas is an additional motivator. Tech is a dominant 21-8 ATS off a home loss the last 22 years. Bet Tech.

5* Wiseuy MLB *BEST BET* on Braves -117

Bottom Line: After watching Pittsburgh celebrate clinching a playoff spot on their field, I expect the Braves to show some fire tonight.  While the Pirates still have some things left to play, it's hard to bounce back mentally following such an emotional victory. Teheran has been dominant at home where he has posted a 2.04 ERA. That mark is far superior to the 3.74 mark Locke has posted on the road. The Braves are 9-3 in Teheran's last 12 home starts versus teams with a winning record and 5-0 in his last 5 starts versus National League Central clubs.  The Pirates are 2-5 in Locke's last 7 road starts, 3-9 in their last 12 games as a road underdog and 17-38 in the last 55 meetings in Atlanta. The Braves are 2-0 in Teheran's 2 career starts versus Pittsburgh, during which he's posted a 2.77 ERA. The Pirates are 0-2 in Locke's last 2 starts versus the Braves, during which he's allowed 7 runs in 10 1-3 innings. Bet the Braves.

4* Major AL East *SUREFIRE* on Yankees -138

Bottom Line: The Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6, including 4-0 as a favorite during this span.  Look for them to stay hot against Jimenez, who has a 4.90 ERA on the season and a 6.46 ERA over his last 3 starts.  New York's McCarthy has been lights out over his last 3 starts (1.74 ERA) and is 5-1 with a 1.36 ERA in his last 6 at Yankee Stadium.  The Yankees are 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home favorite.  The Orioles are 1-6 in Jimenez's last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Jimenez has struggled against the Yankees.  He has a 5.79 ERA in 6 career starts against them with his clubs going 0-5 in the last 5 outings.  McCarthy has a 3.07 ERA in 7 career starts versus Baltimore, and his clubs have won 2 of his last 3 starts versus the O's.  The Yanks are 71-30 under Girardi in home games after allowing 1 run or none in their last game.  They are also 95-42 under their current manager in home games following a win of 4 runs or more.  Bet New York.

5* Wiseguy MNF Game of the Month on Jets -2.5

Bottom Line: I love the Jets at home tonight as I expect them to run all over a Bears defense that ranks next to last in the league with 160 rushing yards allowed per game.  The Jets have been the best rushing team in the NFL thus far, racking up 170 yards per game on the ground.  Additionally, New York is the better defensive team.  It ranks 3rd in the NFL in total defense with only 274 yards per game allowed.  The Jets blew a big lead in Green Bay last week and will be hungry as a result.  I think it will be a tough encore for the Bears going on the road for a second straight week, especially after last week's emotional victory over the 49ers.  That win wasn't nearly as impressive as it looks considering the Bears were outgained by 145 yards.  The Bears are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall, 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win.  CHICAGO is 6-18 ATS in road games when the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992 and 4-16 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better since 1992.  Pound the Jets.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -161

Bottom Line: Look for Detroit to bounce back at home following Sunday's loss to the Royals.  The White Sox are an ugly 31-77 in their last 108 road games versus a team with a winning record.  The White Sox are also 10-27 in the last 37 meetings in Detroit.  The Tigers are 8-0 in their last 8 home games versus a team with a losing road record, 4-0 in their last 4 series openers and 4-0 in Lobstein's 4 career starts.  Detroit has seen Bassit, and it pounded him.  Lobstein is making his first start versus Chicago and should benefit from facing batters that aren't at all familiar with his stuff.  Pound the Tigers.

4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Steelers +3.5

Bottom Line: Motivation won't be an issue for the Steelers, who were kicked last Thursday night in Baltimore.  This is also a strong situational spot for Pittsburgh as it will have had 3 extra days to prepare.  The Steelers are 5-0 ATS all-time versus the Panthers and have won the last 4 meetings straight up by an average of 21.0 points.  Grab the points with Pittsburgh.

4* Major MLB *TOP DOG* on Giants +101

Bottom Line: This is a huge game for the Giants, who are 3.5 games behind the Dodgers and head to LA next.  The Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 Game 3's of a series.  The Giants are 21-9 in their last 30 Sunday games, 8-3 in Vogelsong's last 11 starts as a road underdog, 6-2 in his last 8 starts on 5 days' rest and 4-1 in his last 5 Sunday starts. San Diego is only 2-14 off an upset win over a division rival this season.  Bet San Francisco.

4* Major NFL *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Jaguars +7

Bottom Line: The Jaguars are showing a lot of value catching 7 at home.  Indy will be hungry following a 0-2 start but it has some major problems on defense and one fewer day to figure out those problems having played on Monday.  Jacksonville will also be hungry following an 0-2 start, and it will also by jacked up for its home opener.  It lost by 34 points on this field to the Colts last season so I expect an inspired performance.  Plays on underdogs or pickems that won only 25% to 40% of their games the previous season, provided they are playing a conference opponent, have resulted in a 35-10 ATS record the last 5 seasons.  These dogs have lost by just 0.7 points on average.  Jacksonville has a solid opportunity to shock the Colts.  Grab the points.

5* Wiseguy NFL Oddsmaker Error Game of the Year on Giants +2.5

Bottom Line: The wrong team is favored here.  The Giants outgained Arizona 341-266 but fell victim to a -4 turnover margin.  The Texans are 2-0 but were outgained by 56 and 37 yards in those contests.  They have benefited from a plus-5 turnover margin.  Turnovers shouldn't factor this much into the line as they can't be handicapped well, especially this early in the season.  We are getting the Giants at home at an excellent number here because odds makers are overreacting to turnover margin. Plays on any team that didn't force a turnover last game that is up against an opponent that forced 3 or more turnovers last game has resulted in a 130-79 ATS record the last 10 seasons.  The Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win and 0-7 ATS the last 2 seasons following a road contest.  Pound New York.

4* Major CFB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Louisiana Lafayette +16.5

Bottom Line: Off consecutive ugly efforts, the Ragin' Cajuns will be all business when they take the field Saturday night.  Turnovers have played a big role in ULL's last 2 losses, and they are also a big reason why the Broncos have won their last 2.  However, road underdogs that forced 1 turnover or less last game are 63-28 ATS since 1992 if they are matched up against an opponent that has forced 3 turnovers or more in 3 consecutive games.  These teams have been underdogs of 15.6 points on average but have lost by just 11.2.  This system is a perfect example of how odds makers overreact to big wins and losses that were heavily influenced by turnovers.  These teams are more evenly matched than this line shows.  Bet ULL.

4* Major MLB Run Line Blowout on Angels -1.5 +101

Bottom Line: Following back-to-back defeats and losing ugly yesterday, I like LA to come storming back behind a gem from Weaver, who has owned the Rangers at home.  He has a 2.19 ERA in 15 career home starts against the Rangers, and the Angels are 12-0 in the last 12.  Weaver should get plenty of help from his offense tonight as the Halos are 13-0 this season versus starting pitchers like Lewis that give up an average of 7 hits per start or more.  LA has won these games by 3.5 runs on average while averaging 7.1 runs.  Lewis is 0-3 in his last 3 starts versus the Angels, giving up 21 runs in 15 1-3 innings. Lay runs with LA.

5* Wiseguy CFB *DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH* Game of the Month on BYU -14

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Cougars, who were upset at Virginia last season.  They are the superior team, and I expect them to put a hurting on the Cavaliers here.  Playing home favorites that average 230 or more rushing yards per game against a team that averages 100-140 rushing yards per game has resulted in a 42-17 ATS record the last 5 seasons.  This system carries an average winning margin of 25.9 points.  Pound BYU.

5* Wiseguy CFB *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* Game of the Year on Akron +9

Bottom Line: Marshall is getting way too much respect on the road against an Akron team that has had an extra week to prepare.  I'll gladly take the healthy amount of points in a game Akron has an excellent shot to win outright.  Marshall is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10 points under coach Holliday.  It is 1-9 ATS as a road favorite under its current coach.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings, and the Thundering Herd are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Akron.  Pound the Zips.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Mariners -144

Bottom Line: Seattle has plenty of incentive after pulling within 1 game of Oakland for the second wild card spot.  It has been fantastic on the road where it is 10-4 in its last 14 and 7-1 in its last 8 as a favorite.  Houston has been its home away from home.  The Mariners are 11-2 in their last 13 at Houston, including 5-0 in their last 5.  The Astros are an atrocious 60-149 in their last 209 games versus winning teams, including 29-70 in their last 99 home games versus a team with a winning record.  The Astros are 2-7 in Peacock's last 9 starts, and he's struggled against Seattle, posting a 5.95 ERA in 7 starts against the M's.  Walker is one of the best young arms in baseball and should benefit from flying to Houston Thursday to get extra rest before this outing. He's 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in 3 career starts versus the Astros with both wins coming in Houston.  Pound Seattle.

4* Major CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on S. Florida -2

Bottom Line: This is a tougher spot for Connecticut as it hits the road for the first time this season and does so on a short week.  The road hasn't been kind to the Huskies as they were 1-4 on the highway last season.  The road hasn't been kind to either team in this series as the home team is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.  The Bulls are 4-1 in their last 5 home games in the series with the 4 wins coming by 13.0 points on average.  USF has won the last 2 meetings, and I'll lay the small number with it in this one.

4* Major Thursday Night Football *SUREFIRE* on Buccaneers +7

Bottom Line: In the first month of the season, playing against home teams off a road loss that closed last season with two or more consecutive losses has resulted in a 107-61 (64%) ATS record since 1983.  Additionally, playing underdog of 3.5 to 10 points that won just 25% to 40% of their games last season has resulted in a 28-8 (78%) ATS record the last 5 seasons.  Tampa Bay has won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 11 of the last 14 meetings.  Bet the Bucs.

5* Wiseguy CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Kansas State +9.5

Bottom Line: Playing home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points in a non-conference matchup in the first month of the season, provided they return an experienced starting QB, has resulted in a 130-71 ATS (65%) record since 1992.  This system tightens up to 15-6 ATS the last 3 seasons.  K-State is an unbelievable 65-4 in non-conference contests under coach Snyder.  And, it is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 regular season contests in the underdog role.  Pound the Wildcats.

4* Major MLB *BLOOD BATH* on Nationals -139

Bottom Line: Gonzalez has owned the Marlins and Hand has been hit hard by the Nationals.  Miami has averaged just 3.0 runs since losing its MVP candidate (Stanton), and I expect runs to be tough to come by here.  The Nats are 4-0 in Gonzalez's last 4 starts against the Marlins, and he's allowed only 2 runs in 25 innings in these contests.  The Marlins are 0-5 in Hand's last 5 starts versus the Nationals, and he has an ERA of 8.03 in 6 starts against them.  Bet Washington.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* Blowout on Tigers -166

Bottom Line: The Twins are 0-5 in Gibson's last 5 starts and 0-5 in his last 5 home starts.  He's given up 4 runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts.  He also has an ERA of 7.24 in 3 starts against Detroit this season.  Price has a 3.30 ERA and a 1.072 WHIP on the season, including a 2.73 road ERA and a 0.949 road WHIP.  His WHIP is significant because Minnesota is just 1-20 this season versus AL starters with a WHIP of 1.100 or lower.  Price is 2-0 against the Twins this season, limiting them to 3 runs in 17 innings.  The Twins managed a win yesterday but are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win.  Pound Detroit.

5* Wiseguy MLB Underdog Game of the Year on Mariners +116

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from the Angels after becoming the first team in baseball to clinch a playoff spot.  Seattle will play like the more desperate team as it trails Kansas City by 2 games for the 2nd wild card slot.  The Mariners also hold the edge on the mound with Elias, who has posted a 2.08 ERA over his last 9 starts.  Rasmus isn't a starter but will make his 4th straight start.  He hasn't made it past 3 1-3 innings in his first three starts.  Another early exit will place a lot of pressure on the pen, but don't be surprised if Scioscia gives him a longer leash in this one with it being a 4-game series and not wanting to tax his pen early in the series.  That bodes well for us.  The Mariners have dropped their last 2 versus the Angels but are 12-3 this season in road games when playing with double revenge.  Pound Seattle.

4* Major MLB *BLOOD BATH* on Giants -120

Bottom Line: The Giants fell 3 games back in the NL West after losing their last 2 to the Dodgers, and they'll be hungry here as a result.  Miley has struggled all season, especially at home where he has a 6.13 ERA.  The Diamondbacks are 0-7 in Miley's last 7 starts, 0-5 in his last 5 starts as an underdog, 0-5 in his last 5 starts on 5 days' rest, 0-4 in his last 4 series-opening starts, 0-4 in his last 4 division starts, 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus winning teams and 0-4 in his last 4 starts as a home dog of +110 to +150.  The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in their last 5 home games versus a team with a winning record and 0-4 in their last 4 games against the Giants.  Bet San Francisco.

5* Wiseguy MNF *BEST BET* on Colts -3

Bottom Line: One thing you can't do is go against Andrew Luck following a loss.  Since taking over as QB of the Colts, they are an unbeaten 10-0 straight up and ATS off a defeat in the regular season.  Last season they crushed the 49ers by 20 on the road and beat Denver by 6 at home following losses.  These are clearly 2 of the best teams in the NFL.  The Eagles only won 1 game against playoff teams last season.  That was against Green Bay, which was playing without Aaron Rodgers.  Philadelphia's O-line is in bad shape.  The Eagles benefited from having the same O-line for 17 games last season but will struggle here against a good team without the unit in tact.  Additionally, the Colts are an unbeaten 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons following a loss on the road and have won these contests by 8.1 points on average.  They are 6-0 ATS at home during this span after giving up 30 points or more in their last game and have won by an average of 8.0 points in this situation.  Pound Indy.

4* Major Sunday Night Football *SUREFIRE* on Bears +7

Bottom Line: I expect to see a completely different Bears team in San Francisco Sunday evening.  The Bears stunk it up at home in Week 1, and they haven't forgotten the beating they took the last time they visited San Francisco.  They will be extremely motivated.  The Bears have too much offensive talent to be getting this kind of disrespect from oddsmakers.  The 49ers are offensively challenged at times and were outgained by 63 yards in Dallas last week.  The difference was their +4 turnover margin.  Turnovers cost the Bears last week, and I expect to see much better decision making from Jay Cutler.  This is a huge game for Chicago given how tough its schedule is going forward, and I expect it to respond.

4* Major ESPN Sunday Night Baseball *SUREFIRE* on Orioles -125

Bottom Line: The Orioles are showing value as a small favorite with Tillman on the hill.  They are 9-0 in his last 9 starts.  The Yankees won Saturday, but Baltimore is 7-0 this season when giving the ball to Tillman following a loss.  Also, the O's are 8-0 all-time in Tillman's 2nd half of  the season home starts versus clubs carrying a win percentage of 51-54%.  The Yankees are 5-14 in Kuroda's last 19 road starts and 0-4 in his last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Baltimore has won 10 of 14 in the season series and should take care of business again tonight.

5* Wiseguy NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Chargers +6

Bottom Line: Because Seattle rolled at home in the Week 1 opener and because it has had extra rest, we are getting a great line.  Seattle isn't the same team on the road where it is just 20-36 in the regular season the last 7 years.  San Diego, on the other hand, has been formidable at home where it is 45-19 the last 8 seasons.  The Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 following a loss, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 versus winning teams and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after giving up more than 350 yards in their last game.  Pound San Diego.

4* Major NFL *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Giants +3

Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for Arizona as it heads on the road following Monday's thrilling comeback win against the Chargers.  This is a bounce back spot for the Giants, who were brutally embarrassed in Detroit.  Given the situation, the Giants shouldn't be catching points at home.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 versus NFC opponents and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.  Bet New York.

4* Major *EARLY BLOWOUT* on Patriots -3

Bottom Line: No team bounces back better than the Patriots, who are 32-13-1 ATS in their last 46 games following a loss.  It can be tough playing on the road in back-to-back weeks, but the Pats are 11-2 ATS under Belichick in road games off a road loss.  They've won these contests by an average of 11.8 points.  I'm betting on Tom Brady and company to bounce back.

*Adrian Peterson is out and the line has adjusted, but I still like the Patriots laying 7 or less.

4* Major CFB BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Colorado +16

Bottom Line: Look for Colorado to blow this spread out of the water by taking the Sun Devils right down to the wire.  Colorado brings back 8 starters on each side of the ball while ASU returns only 8 starters total.  The Buffs also return 20 more lettermen than ASU.  Experience should serve Colorado well as conference home dogs of 10.5-21 points that return their QB and 8 or more offensive starters are 67-35 ATS the last 10 seasons.  ASU has put the hurt on the Buffs in recent years, but this is where they have their shot at revenge.
 

4* Major CFB *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Rice +32

Bottom Line: Rice went to Texas A&M and lost by just 21 points last season.  Having had a bye week to prepare, I expect it to keep this one closer than the oddsmakers have projected.  These schools have played 5 times the last 22 years with all 5 meetings being decided by 28 points or less. The Owls are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 versus winning teams, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference contests and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss of more than 20 points. Bet Rice.

4* Major NL West *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Dodgers -115

Bottom Line: The Giants have been rolling, but seeing them in the underdog role throws up a red flag.  This is not a team that has performed well as a pup.  In fact, the Giants are 9-23 in their last 32 games as an underdog and 1-10 in their last 11 games as a home underdog.  The Dodgers have dominated in division play, going 27-9 in their last 36 NL West contests.  Greinke has been lights out against the division too with the Dodgers going 18-4 in his last 22 division starts.  He has a 1.82 ERA in 12 starts versus NL West opponents this season.  He's especially had his way with the Giants.  His clubs are 5-0 all-time in his starts against them, during which he's posted a 2.30 ERA.  Hudson has had a solid season but hasn't been as sharp as Greinke.  The Giants are 1-5 in Hudson's last 6 starts versus a team with a winning record.  Bet the Dodgers.

5* Wiseguy Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston College +17

Bottom Line: Look for USC to come out flat following a huge win over Stanford.  The Trojans defeated Boston College 35-7 last season and won't give the Eagles the focus they deserve as a result.  The Trojans are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a win, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road contests.  The Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 at home and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a spread loss.  Pound BC.

4* Major CFB *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Bowling Green +7

Bottom Line: Bowling Green had this game circled heading into the season because it was embarrassed 42-10 at Indiana last season.  I love BG's chances for revenge.  Playing non-conference home underdogs of 3.5-10 points that completed 62% or more of their passes last season has resulted in an 8-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons.  Indiana is 0-12 ATS after outrushing an opponent by 200 or more yards in its last game the last 22 years.  Under coach Wilson, it is 0-6 ATS after a win by 17 points or more, 0-7 ATS after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game and 0-6 ATS after outgaining an opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game.  Bowling Green is 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after outrushing an opponent by 150 or more yards last game, 7-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after allowing 9 points or less last game, 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after a win by 21 or more points and 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers.  Bet Bowling Green.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Buffalo +36

Bottom Line: As if last week's disappointing performance at Army isn't enough motivation, the Bulls were clobbered 70-13 at Baylor last season.  They'll be looking to save a little face by keeping this once respectable and will put forth maximum effort to do so.  Baylor is riding high off a pair of lopsided wins but now hits the road for the first time and on a short week.  It also has the memory of last year's easy win over Buffalo in its mind so I don't expect it to give the Bulls its full attention.  QB Bryce Petty is expected back but he'll likely be a little out of rhythm and could have trouble finding chemistry with a new cast of receivers.  Injuries are expected to prevent 4 of Baylor's top playmakers from taking the field tonight.  Even if the Bears are able to get out to an early lead, I expect them to call off the dogs, leaving the backdoor wide open.  They know they have much more important games ahead.  Pound Buffalo.

4* Major MLB Smart Money Mismatch on Blue Jays -132

Bottom Line: Fading Tampa Bay's Nathan Karns, who had a 7.50 ERA in 3 starts for Washington last season and a 5.08 ERA in 27 Triple-A starts this season.  I expect him to struggle against a Toronto lineup that has averaged 6.44 runs over its last 9 games.  The Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 overall, 5-0 in their last 5 home games, 6-0 in their last 6 home games versus a right-handed starter and 8-0 in their last 8 games on astroturf.  Happ has been good at home all season (3.42 ERA), and he's dominated the Rays in his last 2 starts against them.  The Jays are 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus Tampa Bay.  Bet Toronto.

4* Major NCAAF ESPN *PRIMETIME TOTAL* on Houston/BYU UNDER 58

Bottom Line: We saw a shootout with 93 total points scored in last season's meeting, and I expect both teams to tighten the screws defensively as a result.  BYU is 36-17 UNDER when the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992.  The Cougars are 7-0 UNDER after outrushing an opponent by 150 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.  Playing the UNDER on any team (BYU) that averages 190-230 rushing yards per game against a team that holds opponents to 100-140 rushing yards per game, in a non-conference matchup, has resulted in a 44-16 record the last 5 seasons.  Bet the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Ravens -1

Bottom Line: The Ravens are in a much better spot playing a home game off a home game in a short week.  It's much tougher going on the road in a short week.  Baltimore has won 4 of its last 6 in the series, and I believe it will be the more motivated side after falling to Cincinnati in Week 1.  The Ravens have been outstanding at home, going an amazing 39-10 in their last 49 regular-season home games.  Playing against road teams that scored 30 points or more last game that are up against a team that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game has resulted in an 80-41 ATS record the last 10 seasons.  Pound Baltimore.

4* Major NCAAF *SUREFIRE* on Louisiana Tech +4

Bottom Line: Playing against home teams in the first month of the season has resulted in a 60-25 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they allowed opponents to complete 58% or more of their passes last season.  North Texas won last season's meeting 28-13 despite being outgained and giving up 367 yards through the air because it finished the game +2 in turnover margin.  The Bulldogs led the game 10-0 but found themselves down 14-10 at the half after giving up a 56-yard pick-6 that really swung the momentum.  I look for the Bulldogs to take better care of the football this time around - they've only had 1 giveaway this season - and to have their revenge.

4* Major MLB *BLOOD BATH* on Nationals -113

Bottom Line: I'll gladly grab the Nats at this price against a club they've owned.  They are are 40-13 in the last 53 meetings, including 25-4 in the last 29 meetings in New York.  The Mets have been the worst home dog in baseball at 32-71 in their last 103 games in the role.  Roark has been better than Colon this season with an ERA 1 run lower.  Bet the Nats.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Blue Jays -143

Bottom Line: Arrieta has posted a 7.15 ERA in his last four road outings, and I'm not hesitating to fade the Cubs with him on the hill here.  Chicago is 0-4 in its last 4 games, 0-4 in its last 4 games versus left-handed starters and 0-5 in its last 5 games when its opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague home games versus a team with a losing record, 4-0 in their last 4 home games versus a right-handed starter and 8-0 in Buehrle's last 8 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  He has a 2.42 ERA over his last 7 starts against the Cubs, and his clubs are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus Chicago.  Pound Toronto.

4* Major Run Line Blowout on Dodgers -1.5 -107

Bottom Line: The Padres are 0-5 in their last 5, losing these by an average of 3.8 runs.  The Dodgers are 3-0 in their last 3, winning these by an average of 3.0 runs.  The Padres are 0-4 in Despaigne's last 4 NL road starts, losing these by an average of 2.0 runs.  He has a 5.68 ERA over his last 4 road starts.  The Dodgers are 16-1 in Kershaw's last 17 starts, including 8-0 in division starts during this span.  These 8 wins have come by 4.0 runs on average.  Bet LA on the run line.

5* Wiseguy MNF *BEST BET* on Lions -6

Bottom Line: The Lions will be the hungrier team tonight.  They were defeated at home in overtime in Week 16 by the Giants last season in a game they led by 7 points late in the 4th quarter.  They outgained the Giants 355 to 279 in the game and dominated the time of possession.  They should have won the contest, and I expect them to have their revenge.  While NY made improvements to the defensive side of the football, an offensive line that allowed Eli Manning to be sacked a career-high 39 times remains suspect, especially since free-agent pickup Geoff Schwartz will be out at least the first 7 games with a dislocated toe.  I expect Suh, Fairley and company to wreak havoc tonight.  Pound the Lions.

4* Major Sunday Night Football *BLOOD BATH* on Broncos -7.5

Bottom Line: The Broncos enter the season highly motivated following a pathetic showing in the Super Bowl.  A 39-33 loss at Indy last year should only add fuel to the fire.  Denver is 16-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-9.5 points under John Fox.  Additionally, playing against road underdogs of 3.5-10 points that has a winning record last season has resulted in an 18-4 ATS record the last 5 seasons.  For Manning, last year's defeat to his former club can't be sitting well.  Look for him to do something about it here.

5* Wiseguy NFC South Game of the Year on Buccaneers -2

Bottom Line: I love the Bucs in their season opener.  They have a coach (Lovie Smith) who has shown he can win in the National Football League, and I expect him to have them extremely well prepared.  Plus, Tampa will be extremely motivated by a pair of butt-kickings they received by Carolina last season.  The Bucs will be improved on both sides of the football, and they catch Carolina at the perfect time.  Cam Newton isn't healthy, and he has a new receiving corps to adjust to.  It takes time to build timing and chemistry, and I don't expect the Panthers to have it early.  The favorite is on a 6-1 ATS run in this series, and I look for this trend to continue.  Pound the Bucs.

4* Major NL East *SUREFIRE* on Nationals -133

Bottom Line: Despite wins in the 1st 2 games of this series, the Phillies are still only 6-14 in their last 20 in Washington.  Gio Gonzalez has been an awesome investment in this price range with his clubs going 74-33 all-time in his starts as a favorite of -110 or higher.  The Nationals are 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 30-11 in his last 41 starts versus losing teams.  The Nats are batting .264 versus lefty starters while the Phillies are hitting only .234 against them.  The Phillies are 1-5 in Hamels' last 6 starts in the 3rd of a series, 8-15 in his last 23 starts on 5 or 6 days' rest and 9-16 in his last 25 starts following a team win.  Bet the Nats.

4* Major Oddsmaker Error on Falcons +3

Bottom Line: The wrong team is favored here.  The Falcons went 4-12 last season but had 7 defeats of 7 points or fewer.  This series has been highly competitive with the home team holding the advantage.  The home side has won or lost by 3 points or less in 11 of the last 12 meetings so I feel really good about catching a field goal in this one.  The Falcons aren't used to losing, especially at home, so they'll be looking to send a message right out of the gate.

4* Major NFL *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Bills +7

Bottom Line: The Bills have a legit opportunity to shock a Bears team that is getting way too much respect from odds makers.  The Bears shined offensively in 2013 but ranked 30th in total defense and gave up a league-high 2,583 rushing yards.  The Bears are a weak 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. Underdogs of 3.5-10 points that won just 25-40% of their games last season are 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons.  Grab the points.

4* Major "Total" Dominator on Mets/Reds UNDER 7.0

Bottom Line: Look for a pitcher's duel between Gee and Cueto to result in the UNDER here.  Gee has been at his best in the daylight, going 4-0 with a 2.31 ERA in 7 day starts this season.  Cueto's been even better, going 8-2 with a 1.70 ERA in 13 day starts.  The Under is 41-15-3 in the Mets' last 59 versus the National League Central and 10-4-1 in Gee's last 15 starts overall.  The Under is 36-14-3 in Cueto's last 53 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 11-4-1 in his last 16 home starts.  Bet the UNDER.

4* Major Non-Conference Blowout on Northwestern -7

Bottom Line: Look for Northwestern to respond following last week's upset home loss to Cal.  NIU looked strong against Presbyterian but takes a big step up in class here.  The Huskies are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.  The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference contests.  Bet Northwestern.

4* Major Oddsmaker Error on Navy -3

Bottom Line: Temple, which won only 2 games last season, looks to be improved, but I'll gladly lay a field goal with Navy.  The Owls kicked Vanderbilt last week, but the Commodores really helped them out with 7 turnovers.  Navy's not going to cough it up like that.  Navy's ground game was strong against mighty Ohio State, racking up 370 yards on 63 carries, and I don't see Temple having an answer for it.  Playing against home teams in the first month of the season with just 5 offensive starters returning, provided they closed last season with at least 4 losses in their last 5 games, has resulted in a 35-11 ATS record the last 10 seasons.  This system is 13-2 ATS the last 3 seasons.

5* Wiseguy College Football Underdog Game of the Week on Iowa State +13

Bottom Line: Motivated by a 34-14 loss to FCS North Dakota State, and with last season's 41-7 defeat at K-State adding fuel to the fire, I expect a major response from Paul Rhoads' team.  K-State has won 6 straight in the series, but the previous 5 victories have come by 8 points or fewer.  The Cyclones have won or played the Wildcats to within 6 points or less in each of the last 4 meetings in Ames.  Home dogs of 10.5-21 points with 8 or more offensive starters returning including the QB are 40-12 ATS since 1992 following a game where they were outgained by 225 yards or more.  Pound the Cyclones.

5* Wiseguy NCAAF *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Washington State -3.5

Bottom Line: The Cougars will be hungry following a tough loss to Rutgers in their opener.  After dropping last year's opener to Auburn, Washington State bounced back strong with a win at Southern Cal.  I expect a similar response here.  The Cougars were a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games last season, and they are 6-0 ATS under Leach in road games after allowing 475 or more total yards.  Playing on any team in the first 2 weeks of the season that was a bowl team the previous season has resulted in a 30-9 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they lost their last 2 games the previous season and had a losing record.  Pound Washington State.

4* Major MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mariners/Rangers UNDER 8.5

Bottom Line: The Rangers will have a tough time scoring runs against Iwakuma, who has a 2.90 ERA on the season and a 3.09 career ERA against the Rangers.  Additionally, Iwakuma has a very strong 0.972 WHIP.  This stat is worth noting considering the Rangers are 4-0 UNDER in their last 4 games versus a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.150.  The UNDER is also 3-0-1 in Iwakuma's last 4 starts versus the Rangers and 9-1-2 in the Ranger's last 12 games when their opponent scored 5 runs or more in its previous game.  Baker is in great form, shutting down KC and Houston in his last 2 starts, and should benefit from the fact Seattle hasn't seen him in 3 years.  Bet the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NFL Opener on Packers +6

Bottom Line: The reigning Super Bowl champs are being overvalued in their home opener as you might expect.  Green Bay enters the season hungry following a mediocre 8-8-1 campaign and will draw a little extra motivation from getting robbed in Seattle by the "Fail Mary" when it last visited in 2012.  Despite the loss, the Packers have won or lost by fewer than the 6 points we are getting here in 4 straight and 7 of their last 8 versus Seattle.  That's a 7-1 trend with a perfect 4-0 tightener.  Green Bay is a reliable 40-27 ATS in road games under coach McCarthy, and I expect it to take the Seahawks down to the wire tonight.

5* Wiseguy NCAAF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (FoxS1) on UTSA +7.5

Bottom Line: We cashed an easy winner on the Roadrunners last week, and we'll ride them again here.  Consider that non-conference home dogs of 3.5-10 points are 30-6 ATS the last 10 seasons if they had a winning record the previous season.  Additionally, playing against non-conference road favorites of 3.5-10 points in a matchup between teams that had winning records the previous season has resulted in a 45-16 ATS record since 1992.  The Roadrunners are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games and 17-8 ATS as underdogs under coach Coker.  Pound UTSA.

4* Major MLB PLAY OF THE DAY on Rays -120

Bottom Line: The Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first 2 games of a series, and I expect them to salvage a game here.  Consider that Tampa Bay is 59-37 under manager Maddon when out for revenge for 2 straight home losses to an opponent.  It is 22-9 under Maddon in home games when coming off 2 straight home losses against division opponents.  Odorizzi has been great at home where he has a 2.92 ERA.  Buehrle has a 4.28 career ERA versus the Rays.  The Blue Jays are just 19-47 in their last 66 meetings in Tampa Bay.  Bet the Rays.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Angels -138

Bottom Line: The Angels fit into an awesome system that I'm going to ride today.  Road favorites of -125 or more that are seeking revenge for a loss as a road favorite of -150 or higher has resulted in a 62-15 record the last 5 seasons, provided it is a team with a win percentage of 54-62%.  Teams fitting this system have won by 2.6 runs on average.  And, this system is 35-4 the last 3 seasons and a perfect 3-0 this season.  Pound the Angels.

5* Wiseguy AL West Game of the Year on A's -140

Bottom Line: Seattle's bullpen got a workout yesterday, and that wasn't ideal since Paxton is coming off a start in which he threw a career-high 118 pitches.  I don't expect him to be as sharp as he has been as a result, and I don't expect the pen to be able to pick him up.  The Athletics are 4-0 in Gray's last 4 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus the Mariners.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 25 2-3 innings during his 4-start win streak over Seattle.  The A's are 38-14 in their last 52 home games and 73-34 in their last 107 games as a favorite.  Pound Oakland.

5* Wiseguy NCAAF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Miami +3.5

Bottom Line: This isn't the same Louisville team that kicked Miami in last year's Russell Athletic Bowl. Teddy Bridgewater is gone and so is head coach Charlie Strong.  In addition, the Cardinals bring back only 4 starters on the defensive side of the football, and preseason 1st Team All ACC receiver Devante Parker is expected to miss 6 weeks.  Miami returns 7 starters on each side of the ball from a team that started last season 7-0.  I expect another strong start from the Hurricanes, who are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games as underdogs of 7 points or fewer.  Pound Miami.

4* Major MLB Play of the Day on Orioles -135

Bottom Line: The Orioles are 7-0 in their last 7 versus American League Central foes, 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite, 5-0 in their last 5 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, 6-0 in their last 6 games versus a right-handed starter and 4-0 in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record.  The Twins are 1-7 in their last 8 overall and 2-7 in the last 9 meetings in Baltimore.  The Orioles are very familiar with Hughes, who has a 4.98 ERA in 19 starts against them and a 5.88 ERA in seven career starts at Camden Yards.  Minnesota, meanwhile, will be getting its first look at Gausman.  Bet Baltimore.

5* ESPN2 SNB *BEST BET* on Royals -156

Bottom Line: Look for the Royals to avoid being swept at home with Duffy on the hill.  The southpaw has been sensational, giving up 1 earned run or none in 9 of his last 12 starts.  The Royals are 14-2 in his last 16 starts as a favorite, 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a home favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 division starts.  Cleveland's House has a 4.88 road ERA on the season, and I don't see that holding up here.  Pound the Royals.

4* Major NCAAF *SUREFIRE* on Utah State +5.5

Bottom Line: Playing against home teams that return 5 offensive starters in the first month of the season, provided they closed last season with 4 losses or more in their last 5 games, has resulted in a 35-10 ATS record the last 10 seasons.  Teams fitting this situation have been favored by 6.1 points on average but have lost straight up by 1.1 points on average.  This system has produced a near-perfect 13-1 ATS record the last 3 seasons.  Utah State's stingy defense has held 8 of its last 12 foes to 17 points or fewer.  Look for the Aggies to keep this one within the number behind a strong defensive effort.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Dodgers -138

Bottom Line: Greinke has owned the NL West.  He has a 1.79 ERA in 10 starts versus division opponents this season, and the Dodgers are 18-4 in his division starts over the last 2 seasons.  He's had his way with the Padres throughout his career.  In fact, his teams are 6-0 all-time in his starts versus San Diego, during which he's posted a 2.00 ERA.  Kennedy has a 4.35 ERA in 10 starts versus NL West foes this season.  He also has a 4.27 career ERA versus the Dodgers, and his teams are 1-6 in his last 7 starts against them.  Pound LA.

4* Major *MARQUEE MATCHUP* Georgia -7.5

Bottom Line: Look for Clemson to take a step back after losing Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins.  Georgia lost by 3 points to Clemson last season but had won the previous 5 meetings with the last 4 of those wins coming by 15.3 points on average.  Georgia has typically dominated ACC foes, going 22-9 ATS versus the league since 1992.  Georgia leads the all-time series 41-18-4, and I expect the SEC to flex its muscles here.

4* Major SEC *SUREFIRE* on Arkansas +19.5

Bottom Line: We'll look to take advantage of an inflated line that stems from Arkansas underachieving and Auburn overachieving last season.  With the exception of a 4-game rough patch in the middle of the season, the Razorbacks were very competitive last season.  6 of their losses came by 18 points or less.  6 of Auburn's 2013 victories came by single digits.  The Razorbacks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Auburn.  Bet Arkansas.

5* Wiseguy NCAAF Blowout Game of the Week on Ohio State -16

Bottom Line: I'll back the Buckeyes in what should be an inspired performance from them.  They ended last season on a sour note, dropping their last two games after winning their first 12.  As if that's not enough motivation, they'll be out to prove they are national title contenders even without Braxton Miller.  I don't think Miller's absence will matter.  The Buckeyes have more speed, more size and more athleticism all over the field on both sides of the ball.  I look for them to really dominate the line of scrimmage.  Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points are 43-15 ATS the last 10 seasons if they won 80% or more of their games the previous season.  Teams fitting this system have been favored by 15.2 points on average, but have won by 22.5 points on average.  This system is 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons.  Pound Ohio State.

5* Wiseguy NCAAF *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on UTSA +11.5

Bottom Line: The Roadrunners were embarrassed at home by Houston last season, and they will be out for some serious revenge as a result.  They lost the game 59-28, but the score doesn't tell the entire story as they outgained Houston.  The difference was a minus-5 turnover margin.  I just don't see there being such a huge difference in the turnover column this time around, which means these 11.5 points are looking pretty good, especially since the Roadrunners return 20 starters.  UTSA is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games, 7-1 ATS in its last 8 road games and 7-1 ATS in its last 8 non-conference contests.  The Cougars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on turf.  Pound the Road runners.

4* Major MLB Play of the Day on Cardinals -146

Bottom Line: The Cardinals got a much-needed day off after dropping their last 2 in Pittsburgh.  Playing at home following a day of rest typically does the Redbirds some good.  They are 18-2 the last 2 season in home games following a day off.  They are also 17-1 in home games in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons versus NL teams that average 3.8 runs per game or less.  Additionally, the Cards are 10-1 the last 2 seasons in Miller's starts following 2 or more consecutive team losses.  Bet St. Louis.

4* Major NFL Preseason *SUREFIRE* on Seahawks -5

No analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.

4* Major MLB *BLOOD BATH* on Royals -144

Bottom Line: The Twins are 0-4 in their last 4 overall, and I expect their struggles to continue in Kansas City where they are 0-4 in their last 4.  The Royals have won 21 of 27 overall and 10 of 12 at home.  They are 4-0 in their last 4 games versus the Twins, 4-0 in their last 4 home games versus losing clubs and 4-0 in their last 4 Thursday games.  Guthrie has a 2.85 ERA in his last 6 starts versus Minnesota.  The Royals are 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus the Twins and 3-0 in his last 3 home starts versus the Twins.  The Royals are 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite, 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus losing clubs and 6-0 in his last 6 starts in the 3rd game of a series.  Milone has been rocked in his last 2 starts with Kansas City getting to him in 1 of those.  Bet the Royals.

5* Wiseguy NCAAF *BEST BET* on Tulsa -6.5

Bottom Line: This game is about revenge for Tulsa, which had won 8 straight over Tulane by an average of 30.9 points.  Tulsa is 8-1 SU and ATS in the last 9 meetings, including 4-0 SU and ATS at home during this stretch.  These 4 home wins have come by an average of 36.8 points.  The Golden Hurricane outgained the Green Wave in last year's loss but was done in by 8 penalties totaling nearly 100 yards and a -2 turnover margin.  Look for Tulsa to have its revenge at home.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Reds -153

Bottom Line: The Reds have had Chicago's number, going 38-14 in the last 52 meetings.  Look for Cincinnati to continue its dominance over the Cubs behind a gem from Latos.  The Reds are 27-10 in Latos' last 37 home starts and 12-1 in his last 13 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200.  Latos' clubs are 6-1 in his last 7 starts versus the Cubs, during which he's posted a 1.88 ERA.  Chicago's Turner has a 6.03 ERA in 12 starts this season and was rocked in his most recent start against Cincinnati earlier this month.  Pound the Reds.

5* Wiseguy MLB Run Line Blowout Game of the Week on Mariners -1.5 +112

Bottom Line: Texas took Game 1 2-0 and leads the season series 8-5 so Seattle will be lacking no motivation when it hits the field this evening.  The Mariners are 9-0 in their last 9 games following a loss.  They are also 9-0 in their last 9 games after being held to 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Clearly, this is a club that takes losing seriously.  Seattle has the edge on the mound with Paxton, who Texas isn't familiar with at all.  The Mariners are 4-0 in Paxton's last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game and 4-0 in his last 4 starts in the 2nd game of a series.  The Mariners are 14-5 in their last 19 overall and 8-2 in their last 10 at home.  The Rangers are 16-44 in their last 60 overall and 3-14 in their last 17 games following a win.  They are 2-10 in Martinez's last 12 starts, 1-8 in his last 9 starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200.  Pound the Mariners on the run line.

5* Wiseguy ESPN Monday Night Baseball *BEST BET* on Royals -133

Bottom Line: The Royals are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a home favorite, 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss and 6-0 in their last 6 home games versus a right-handed starter.  They are also 4-0 in Shields' last 4 starts while the Yankees are 0-3 in Pineda's last 3 starts.  Shields is also 2-0 in his last 2 starts versus the Yankees, holding them to 1 earned run in 13 innings.  This is a tough spot for New York because it is off an emotional extra-innings win and starts a 3-game series in Detroit tomorrow.  The Royals, who are a major-league best 24-7 since July 22, are back from a lengthy road trip and can settle in for 10 straight at home.  Pound KC.

5* Wiseguy ESPN Sunday Night Baseball *BEST BET* on Angels +134

Bottom Line: The Halos are showing a ton of value at this price given Weaver's track record with the A's.  He has a 2.53 ERA in 28 starts against them.  The Angels are 10-3 in his last 13 starts in the series and 4-1 in his last 5 road starts.  LA is a perfect 11-0 in the 2nd half of the season the last 2 seasons in Weaver's starts versus teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 0.5 runs per game or more.  LA has won these 11 by an average of 3.7 runs.  The Angels are also 4-0 in Weaver's last 4 starts in the 3rd game of a series.  Kazmir has an ERA of 4.66 in 5 career starts versus the Angels.  Pound LA.

5* Wiseguy NFL Preseason *BEST BET* on Bengals +3

No analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Dodgers -158

Bottom Line: The Dodgers are 12-2 in their last 14 versus the Mets, including 5-0 in their last 5 at home in the series, and I expect them to continue their dominance behind Greinke.  The Dodgers are 20-6 in Greinke's last 26 home starts.  His clubs are 22-4 all-time in his home starts versus NL clubs with a batting averaging of .250 or lower.  Also, Greinke's clubs are 53-15 all-time in his starts as a favorite of -150 or higher.  Greinke has a 2.48 ERA at home while deGrom has a 3.69 road ERA.  Greinke has allowed just 1 earned run in his last 2 starts against the Mets spanning 12 innings.  deGrom walked away with a 4.50 ERA versus the Dodgers when he gave up 3 homers in a loss to them earlier this season.  Pound LA.

5* Wiseguy NFL Preseason Game of the Year on Colts -1

No analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.