Winning Sports Picks

4* Major NFL Thursday Night Football *SUREFIRE* on Browns +7

Bottom Line: The Browns aren't getting the respect they deserve from odds makers. They have only 1 loss of more than 7 points this season. They have wins over New Orleans and Pittsburgh and lost to Baltimore by only 2 points. Teams have been a phenomenal play with Brian Hoyer under center the past 5 seasons. They are 17-6 ATS with him on the field, including 8-3 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS as a road dog. Hoyer is also 8-1 ATS versus teams like the Bengals that give up 20.4-26.4 ppg during this span. The Cincy defense hasn't lived up to expectations, ranking 30th in the NFL with 394.98 ypg allowed. That bodes well for the underdog, which is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

4* Major NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Spurs +4

Bottom Line: The Spurs played last night but had 4 days off prior and are playing just their 4th game of the season so fatigue shouldn't be an issue. The Rockets are playing their 6th game overall and 3rd in 4 days so I don't see an advantage for them in terms of fresh legs. Because Houston is undefeated and because it swept the season series last season, I expect the defending champs to get up for this one. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing without rest. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

5* Wiseguy CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wake Forest +21

Bottom Line: Clemson is being overvalued on the road considering it has only 1 win of more than 21 points against FBS competition this season. Wake Forest has just 2 defeats of more than 21 points this season and has put forth some quality efforts when the odds have been stacked against it, going 3-1 ATS as a double-digit dog this season. Clemson is 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games as a favorite as the offensive hasn't held up on its end of the bargain. The Demon Deacons have been smacked by Clemson the past 2 seasons so they'll draw a little added incentive from those defeats. Pound Wake Forest.

4* Major MAC *BEST BET* on Ball State +3.5

Bottom Line: The Huskies are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 conference games. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week and 13-5 ATS off a win against a against a conference rival under coach Lembo. NIU stood in Ball State's way of an undefeated record in conference play last season. Look for the Cardinals to have their revenge.

4* Major NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons -4

Bottom Line: I like the Pistons to finally break into the win column tonight. They've had 3 days to prepare for this game while the Knicks are being asked to play their 2nd game in as many nights. The Knicks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home. The favorite is a perfect 10-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Dominator on Suns/Lakers UNDER 215

Bottom Line: The Lakers have gone over the total in each of their last 3 games with at least 218 total points scored in each. And, these teams combined for 218 total points when they met last week. Yet, odds makers have set a total 3 points lower, which means they're begging for action on the over. We won't bite. When the total is 210 or higher, playing the UNDER on teams like the Lakers that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent and are off a road loss of 20 points or more has resulted in an 83-43 (66%) record since 1996. Pound the UNDER.

4* Major NBA *PUNISHER* on Blazers +3

Bottom Line: Excluding pushes, Portland is 85-56 ATS over its last 141 games as a home underdog of 6 points or less and has only lost by an average of 0.4 points in these contests. The Blazers were 31-10 at home in the regular season last season so they aren't used to losing at home. Sunday's home loss to the Warriors should provide all the motivation they need. Grab the points.

4* Major MAC *BEST BET* on Kent State +14

Bottom Line: Toledo fits into a negative wagering situation that has been money in the bank. Playing against road teams like Toledo that have a win percentage of 60-80% and have failed to cover the number in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games has resulted in a 67-29 ATS record since 1992. This system has gone 14-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Rockets haven't defeated an FBS opponent by more than 14 points this season because they are soft defensively. Grab the points.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Nuggets -7

Bottom Line: Following consecutive big wins over the Blazers and Clippers, expect a letdown from the Kings in Denver tonight. The Kings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win while the Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss. Sacramento is also on a 65-91 ATS slide in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. The Kings are 3-8-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Bet Denver.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Giants +3.5

Bottom Line: The Colts fit into a negative situation that I want no part of. Consider that playing against road favorites that have covered the number 5 or 6 times in a 7-game span has resulted in a 61-30 ATS record since 1983 provided they have a win percentage of 60% to 75% and are matched up against a team that have a losing record. The Giants have been a different team at home where they are 2-1 SU and ATS and could be undefeated (led in the 4th against the 7-1 Cardinals). The Colts haven't been the same team on the road. Outside of an easy win at Jacksonville, they've struggled in their other 3 road games. They were blown out in Pittsburgh last week, trailed Denver 31-10 in the 4th before it called off the dogs and nearly blew a 24-0 lead in Houston. Pound New York.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +9.5

Bottom Line: I like the 76ers at home catching nearly double digits against a Houston team that's riding high from a 3-0 start. With the Heat, Spurs and Warriors this week, the Rockets will have a tough time focusing on the task at hand. Besides, home court has been huge in this matchup with the home side going 6-0 ATS in the last 6. Pound Philly.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Trailblazers -3.5

Bottom Line: It looks like the Warriors will again be without David Lee, and it finally hurts them here. Lee will be missed against a Portland team that will expose the Warriors down low with Aldridge, Lopez and Kaman. Bogut is a good interior defender, but he can't handle all these guys on his own, which is basically what is being asked of him tonight. The Blazers should also be the fresher team as they had yesterday off while the Warriors played last night and traveled. Pound Portland.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Hornets +4

Bottom Line: The Knicks are getting a little too much respect following their win over Cleveland. New York is on a 3-14 ATS slide at home in the first half of the season while the Hornets are on an 11-2 ATS run in first half of the season road games. Charlotte is coming off a loss in Memphis last night but is on a 27-14 ATS run following defeat and 4-1 ATS in its last five after being held to less than 75 points. The Knicks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest. The Hornets are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in New York.

4* Major NFL False Favorite on Chargers +2.5

Bottom Line: The wrong team is favored here. The Chargers have lost their last 2 but those were to a couple of good teams. The loss in Denver was a really tough spot (on the road in a short week). Because the Chargers played the Thursday game last week, they've had 3 extra days to prepare for this battle and the extra time should treat them well. The Chargers are still 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. November road teams that are off a road loss are 70-26 ATS the last 10 seasons. Bet the Bolts.

4* Major Letdown Game of the Week on Jaguars +11.5

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Cincy following last week's emotional win over Baltimore. The Bengals play the Thursday game next week against division rival Cleveland and will have a tough time not looking ahead to that contest. Playing against home favorites that have a winning record on the season and are off an upset win at home over a division rival has resulted in a 22-4 ATS record since 1983.

5* Wiseguy NFL Underdog Shocker Game of the Year on Jets +10.5

Bottom Line: The Jets are a much better football team than their 1-7 record suggests, but it's that 1-7 record that is allowing us to catch a great number. The Jets played Green Bay to a 7-point game on the road and led that game 21-3. They've also played Detroit to a 7-point game, New England to a 2-point game and would have played Denver to a 7-point game had it not been for a pick-six at the end. This is a game the Jets have a good shot to win straight up because the strength of their defense matches up well with the strength of the Kansas City offense. The Chiefs rely heavily on their running attack, but it will be tough sledding against a New York stop unit that holds opponents to 85.4 ypg on the ground. Road dogs or pickems that have lost 7 straight or more are 66-33 ATS since 1983. Week 9 or later underdogs or pickems that have lost 7 straight or more are 91-44 ATS since 1983. November road dogs or pickems off 5 or more consecutive defeats are 42-14 ATS since 1983. Pound the Jets.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +2

Bottom Line: Tough spot for Phoenix as it hits the road for the first time this season following a huge win over the Spurs. This one has letdown written all over it for the Suns, who are 0-2 in their last 2 versus the Jazz and 1-4 in their last 4 in Utah. They are 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and have dropped 23 of 35 in Salt Lake City. Pound Utah.
 

4* Major Big 12 Game of the Week on Oklahoma State +12

Bottom Line: The Cowboys are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games following a loss of more than 20 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a home loss of 10 points or more. Playing against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that held their last opponent to 9 points or less has resulted in a 29-7 ATS record since 1992, provided they are taking on a team that has lost its last 2 games by 17 points or more.

4* Major Eastern Conference *SUREFIRE* on Magic +6.5

Bottom Line: This is a look-ahead spot for Toronto which will be much more concerned about tomorrow's content in Miami than an Orlando team it has defeated 7 straight times. The Magic have been competitive at home in the series, though, losing the last 2 in Orlando by only 2 and 5 points, respectively. The Raptors are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a win and 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a losing record. Bet the Magic.

5* Wiseguy Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year on New Mexico State +7.5

Bottom Line: We'll back New Mexico State at home off a bye against a Texas State team that will be looking ahead to next week's showdown with Georgia Southern. In a game between teams with 8 of more returning offensive starters, taking home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that were outgained by 125 or more total yards last game has resulted in a 46-17 ATS record since 1992. This system is 7-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. New Mexico State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games. The Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win. Pound the Aggies.

4* Major ACC *BLOOD BATH* on Virginia Tech -3.5

Bottom Line: VA Tech has dropped its last two, but it is 12-3 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992 and has won these games by an average of 11.0 points. BC is 1-10 ATS in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 9.9 points in this situation.

4* Major CFB Revenge Game of the Week on Connecticut +11

Bottom Line: UConn went down 62-17 at UCF last season, and I expect an inspired performance here as it looks to save face. UCF is off a big win over Temple and has a bye next week and it will have a tough time getting up for this one as a result. UConn is 8-0 ATS all-time off 2 consecutive road losses. It's also 7-0 ATS lifetime in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of its last 6 games. UCF is 1-8 ATS off a home win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. The Knights are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record.

5* Wiseguy Big Ten Game of the Week on Maryland +4

Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for Penn State following last week's tough-to-swallow OT loss to Ohio State. This is a big bounce-back spot for Maryland after getting kicked at Wisconsin last week. The Terrapins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss and 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games after being held to 100 rushing yards or less last game. Playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with an excellent rushing defense that allows 100 or less rushing yards per game, after gaining 2 or less rushing yards per attempt last game, has resulted in a 42-15 ATS record since 1992. This system is 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Kings +6

Bottom Line: The Kings were horrible in their opener, shooting just 30.8% from the field and committing 26 turnovers. We're getting a great number here because of it, and rest assured they'll put forth a much better effort tonight. The Kings won 123-119 as a 5-point dog the last time Portland visited. And, they lost by a single point in Portland in the most recent meeting so I'll gladly take the points here. The Kings are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Trail Blazers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Pound Sacramento.

4* Major NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Cavs +4.5

Bottom Line: The Bulls rolled the same Knicks team that beat Cleveland last night. So the Bulls should roll tonight, right? If that's your strategy, it's going to be a long season. LeBron James was embarrassed last night, and I expect a massive effort as he looks to save face. The Bulls still have some jelling to do as well with Rose back and Gasol added to the mix. It may not have looked like it against the Knicks, but New York was horrible that night. Chicago has been the worst home favorite in the NBA lately, going 26-44 ATS in the role the last 2 seasons. Bet the Cavs.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* Game of the Month on Tulane +6.5

Bottom Line: Tulane is 12-4 ATS at home under coach Johnson, including 6-1 ATS in its last 7 at Yulman Stadium. Playing home teams with a +/- 40 rushing ypg margin has resulted in a 26-6 ATS record the last 10 seasons provided they've held their last 2 opponents to 100 yards or fewer on the ground and are playing a team that has been outrushed by an average of 50 ypg or more on the season. Pound Tulane.

4* Major NFL Thursday Night Football *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Saints -3

Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, playing against home teams that are outscored by an average of 5 points or more in the first half has resulted in a 29-8 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they scored 14 points or less last game. The Panthers don't have enough offense to keep up with a New Orleans side that ranks 2nd in the NFL in total offense. The Panthers rank 24th, and they haven't been good enough defensively to offset their offensive shortcomings. They've allowed an average of 31.2 points over their last six games. Field position will also likely go New Orleans' way. The Saints are 7-0 ATS lifetime in games played in Week 9 or later versus poor punt coverage teams that allow 12 yards per return or more under coach Payton. They have won by an average of 18.6 points in this spot.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Knicks +13

Bottom Line: The Knicks were smoked last night by a Chicago Bulls team that can really defend. I expect them to shoot the basketball much better tonight. The Cavs are loaded with talent, but it will take them some time to jell on both ends of the floor. The Knicks are a fantastic 14-5 ATS in their last 19 Thursday games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after a loss greater than 10 points. Pound New York.

5* Wiseguy ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville +4.5

Bottom Line: I think some have forgotten just how good a coach Bobby Petrino is. Having had a bye week to prepare, he and his coaching staff will have their No. 1 ranked defense ready for the Noles. Petrino's college teams are 39-17 ATS all-time at home, including 29-12 ATS after the first month of the season and 23-7 ATS in the second half of the season. The Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Florida State has had a few really close calls this season and will have a tough time making it out of this one alive. Pound the Cardinals.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +4

Bottom Line: This is a game the Kings have been looking forward to. They were embarrassed 102-69 at Golden State last April and will be highly motivated as a result. Sacramento is 24-11 in its last 35 home games versus the Warriors, and it has won or lost by fewer than 4 points in 7 of its last 10 home games in the series. Pound the Kings.

4* Major NBA *PUBLIC MASSACRE* on Jazz +3.5

Bottom Line: The public is piling on the Rockets following their easy win over the Lakers, but Houston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games following a double-digit victory and 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing without a days' rest.

4* Major NBA *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Pistons +6.5

Bottom Line: The Pistons underachieved last season and that is showing up in this line. I expect them to be greatly improved under Stan Van Gundy. The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus Western Conference opponents and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.

5* Wiseguy World Series Game 7 *BEST BET* on Royals -134

Bottom Line: Home field in Game 7 of the World Series has been huge. Home teams are on a 9-0 run in Game 7 of the World Series. The Royals are 6-1 at home in the playoffs and 7-1 in their last 8 home games versus the Giants. Guthrie is in better form than Hudson. The Royals are 5-0 in his last 5 starts while he's allowed only 4 earned runs in 30 1-3 innings. The Giants are 2-6 in Hudson's last 8 starts, during which he's given up 29 earned runs in 50 innings. Pound the Royals.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Lakers +6

Bottom Line: After winning last season's first meeting by a point, the Lakers were crushed by Houston in the final 3 matchups of the season. Those lopsided losses assure us LA will be lacking no motivation on opening night. I expect a strong performance from Kobe Bryant, who will be out to silence doubters. The Lakers are 50-33 versus Houston since 1996, including 29-15 at home. Bet LA.

5* Wiseguy World Series Game 6 *BEST BET* on Royals -137

Bottom Line: I like the Royals at home in this do-or-die game because they have completely owned Peavy in this ballpark. The former Cy Young winner has looked anything but at Kauffman where his teams are 0-6 in his last 6 starts while being tagged for at least 4 runs in the last 4. The Royals are 6-0 in Ventura's last 6 starts. They are also a perfect 6-0 in his starts in the 2nd half of this season versus teams that have a winning record. The Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite while the Giants are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Pound KC.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Mavs +4.5

Bottom Line: Dallas has been an awesome road play under coach Carlisle and is 51-26 ATS all-time under his watch in road games played in the first half of the season. It is 72-40 ATS under Carlisle as a road underdog of 6 points or less, including 24-11 ATS in this role the past 2 seasons. For the Spurs, opening night will be about honoring last season's achievement. For the Mavs, it will be about revenge. They pushed the Spurs to the limit in last season's playoffs and will be out for a little payback. Pound the Mavericks.

5* Wiseguy MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Redskins +10.5

Bottom Line: The Redskins picked up a much-needed win last week and carry that momentum into Dallas tonight. With a showdown against 6-1 Arizona on deck, the Cowboys are in a look-ahead spot. Dallas has been an awful investment against losing teams at 8-20 ATS in the last 28. It is even 4-10 ATS in its last 14 home games versus teams with a losing road record. The Cowboys are an unreliable 11-23 ATS as a favorite under Jason Garrett, including 7-16 ATS as a home favorite. Washington has been the play in the series as it is on a 7-1 ATS run. It is also on a 6-1 ATS run in Dallas. This is a lot of points for the 7th-ranked defense in the league to be catching. I like Washington to give the Cowboys a game tonight. Pound the Redskins.

5* Wiseguy SNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Saints -128

Bottom Line: The Saints have won 10 straight inside the Superdome and are in great position to extend their streak Sunday night. The Green Bay defense has really struggled on the road where it is giving up an average of 6 yards per play. That doesn't bode well for the Packers as the Saints are 7-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games when they gain an average of 6 or more yards per game. They have won these 7 games by 20.6 points on average. A New Orleans offense that ranks 2nd in the league should be able to take advantage. Pound the Saints.

4* Major World Series GM5 *BLOOD BATH* on Royals +147

Bottom Line: The Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss and 8-0 in their last 8 games as a road underdog. They are 23-4 in Shields' last 27 road starts, including 13-1 in his last 14 road starts versus teams with a winning record. As you can see, Shields has been at his best away from home, posting a 3.13 road ERA on the season. Bumgarner hasn't fared as well in AT&T Park where he has a 3.88 ERA this season. And get this, the Giants actually have a losing 8-9 record in his home starts on the year. Bet the Royals.

5* Wiseguy AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Bengals +1

Bottom Line: The Bengals haven't lost in their last 12 regular-season home games and are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home contests going back further. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus teams with winning road records, 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games following a game where they finished under the total and 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Playing against favorites that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 34-9 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are coming off covers as a favorite in their last 2 games. Playing against road teams that are off a win of 21 points or more has resulted in a 35-12 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are up against a team that scored 3 points or less in the 1st half last game. Home underdogs or pickems that average 5.4 yards per play or more are 35-11 ATS since 1983 if they've given up 400 total yards or more in their last 2 games. Pound Cincinnati.

4* Major Sunday NFL *BLOOD BATH* on Falcons +4

Bottom Line: Atlanta is 2-5 but isn't about to throw in the towel. It's just one game behind division leader Carolina in the win column, and there's a whole lot of football left to be played. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS since 1992 in games played away from home following a road blowout loss of 21 points or more. They are 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after allowing 6 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games. The Lions are 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons after having won 3 of their last 4 games. Bet Atlanta.

4* MAJOR CFB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Hawaii +3

Bottom Line: Nevada is ripe for a letdown following last week's upset win at BYU. The Wolf Pack have been a poor investment off a win, going just 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games following victories. Hawaii enjoys a nice home field advantage because teams are often jetlagged after making the long trip. The Rainbow Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. The home team has won, or lost by less than 3 points, in 13 of the last 14 meetings. Hawaii is 6-1 in its last 7 home games versus Nevada. Bet Hawaii.

5* Wiseguy World Series GM 4 *BEST BET* on Giants -124

Bottom Line: The Giants are down in the series, but they aren't about to hit the panic button with the next 2 at home. The Giants trailed 3-2 in the 2012 NLCS and went on to win the World Series. They are in great hands with Vogelsong, who has a 2.16 ERA in 6 career postseason starts. The Giants are 6-0 in these. He has a 0.00 ERA in 1 World Series start so I don't think this moment will be too big for him. Vargas hadn't made a postseason start prior to this year. He's pitched well in his first 2 postseason starts, but the stakes have been raised. Plus, the Giants got a look at him in August. The Giants are 9-2 in their last 11 playoff home games and 6-1 in their last 7 World Series home games. Pound the Giants.

5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +14.5

Bottom Line: This is a great spot to back the Nittany Lions. Off back-to-back losses, they will be focused. Furthermore, they were hammered 63-14 by Ohio State last season - the worst loss in program history since 1899. Penn State's 41 returning lettermen will be out for payback. The fact they have had an extra week to prepare only adds value to this play. The Nittany Lions are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss. Penn State is 22-10 ATS in home games off a road loss since 1992. Coach James Franklin's teams are 9-1 ATS lifetime in home games played on a grass field. Bet Penn State.

4* MAJOR SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee +17.5

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Alabama following last week's 59-0 rout of Texas A&M. Bama has a bye week next week, and I wouldn't be surprised if it starts its off week early. The Crimson Tide have been a poor investment as they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They're 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and struggled to beat Arkansas in their last road game. Playing against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points 7 games or more into the season has resulted in a 56-23 ATS record since 1992 if they are an excellent defensive team that allows 16 ppg or less and has allowed 17 points or less in 2 straight games, and if they are playing a team that allows 21-28 ppg. Teams fitting this scenario have won by just 9.6 points on average. This system is 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons.

5* WISEGUY 2014 CFB GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma State pk

Bottom Line: I love the Cowboys at home where they are 4-0 this season with an 18.5-point average margin of victory. Oklahoma State took it on the chin big time at TCU last week and, in case that loss isn't enough motivation, it was upset at West Virginia last season. The Cowboys are on a 13-3 ATS run at home following a defeat of 21 points or more in conference play. WVU won't bring the same level of motivation into this one following last week's upset win over Baylor. The Cowboys are on a 17-4 ATS run at home versus teams with a win percentage of 60-75%. Oklahoma State has been about as reliable as it comes at Boone Pickens, where it has just 4 losses since 2010. It is 30-4 in its last 34 at home, including 24-2 in its last 26. Pound Oklahoma State.
 

4* Major World Series GM 3 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Giants -120

Bottom Line: I'm not sure the Giants could give the ball to a better guy following a loss. Hudson's clubs are 74-30 all-time in his home starts following a loss. They are also 18-3 the last 2 seasons in his starts as a home favorite of -110 or higher. Guthrie has pitched well of late but isn't in the same category as Hudson, who has a lower ERA on the season and has given up less home runs and walks while recording more strikeouts. The Giants are on a 6-0 run in World Series home games. Bet the Giants.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Cincinnati -10

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for Cincinnati, which was upset at South Florida last season. The Bearcats won the yardage battle 350-241 but were killed by 4 turnovers. Cincy is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last 5 at home versus the Bulls with all 4 victories coming by at least 14 points. The Bulls are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall. Playing home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points has resulted in a 43-18 ATS record since 1992 if they give up 440 ypg or more and are playing a team that allows 390 to 440 ypg. Pound Cincy.

4* Major NFL Thursday Night Football *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Broncos -8.5

Bottom Line: This is a tough spot for the Chargers, playing in Denver's high altitude on a short week against a Broncos team that is hitting on all cylinders. Despite San Diego's 5-game win streak coming to an end last week, the public is still high on the Chargers and will be tempted to take them considering they haven't lost by more than 8 points in any of the past 4 meetings. San Diego won at Denver during the regular season last year, and the Broncos will be out to make sure that doesn't happen again. The Chargers played the Broncos to a 7-point game in Denver in last season's playoffs, but the Broncos led that game 17-0 in the 3rd quarter before calling off the dogs. In a game involving teams who outpass opponents by 1.5 yards per pass or more, you want to take home favorites provided they held their last opponent to 5.5 yards per pass or less. That's because doing so has resulted in a 25-4 ATS record since 1983. Teams fitting this scenario have won by an average of 14.4 points. Additionally, Denver is 19-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average of 13.2 points. Bet the Broncos.

5* Wiseguy ACC Game of the Week on Miami pk

Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, playing road teams with a win percentage between 51-60% has resulted in a 22-6 ATS record the last 3 seasons. Miami has had a bye week to prepare, and it will be out for some serious revenge following last season's 42-24 home loss to the Hokies. The Hurricanes are 9-1 ATS in road games the last 22 seasons versus teams with a win percentage between 51-60%. The Canes are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 20 points. The Hokies went down at Pitt last week as they gave up 210 yards on the ground. They are missing D-tackle Luther Maddy in the trenches and have been dealt another blow with leading tackler Chase Williams expected to miss this game with a knee injury. Without those two, Tech will have a tough time slowing down Duke Johnson and a Miami running game that has averaged 215 yards over its last 3 games. The Hokies are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Pound Miami.

5* Wiseguy 2014 World Series Game of the Year on Royals -111

Bottom Line: Peavy has a 4.97 ERA in 14 career starts against the Royals - his worst among any team he's faced more than 6 times. He's been even worse at Kauffman Stadium, where he has a 6.42 ERA in 7 career starts. His clubs are 0-5 in his last 5 starts there. Butler and Escobar have especially had his number. Butler is 14 for 33 lifetime against the right-hander and Escobar is 9 for 22. It's also worth noting that Peavy has a 7.03 career ERA in the postseason. Ventura has one of the best fastballs in baseball and a nasty curve. Making matters worse for the Giants, they haven't seen it (Ventura will be making his first start against San Francisco). The Royals are 5-0 in his last 5 starts. Pound Kansas City.

4* Major World Series GM 1 *PUNISHER* on Royals +100

Bottom Line: I'll gladly get behind the Royals at even money. They are 5-0 in their last 5 at home and 9-0 in their last 9 games overall. They are also 5-0 in their last 5 games against the Giants with 3 of these wins coming in KC in August. The Royals are 9-0 in their last 9 games as an underdog and 6-0 in their last 6 home games versus a left-handed starter. The Royals have been at their best against southpaw starters this season, hitting .271 against them as a team. They beat Bumgarner during the regular season, plating 4 runs off him on 7 hits (including a HR). Shields pitched a shutout versus the Giants during the regular season, holding them to just 4 hits. Bet Kansas City.

4* Major Sun Belt *SUREFIRE* on Louisiana-Lafayette +3

Bottom Line: The Ragin' Cajuns dominated Arkansas State last season on the road. They won by 16 points in a game that wasn't even as close as the score looked considering they outgained the Red Wolves by 302 yards. With all but 5 starters back, I expect the Ragin' Cajuns to take care of business again. ULL is 7-1 in its last 8 home games in the series and is an impressive 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games versus teams with a winning record. Additionally, playing against road favorites with a good run defense that allows 3.25 ypc or less, provided they averaged 5.5 ypc or more in their last 2 games, has resulted in a 69-34 ATS record since 1992. Bet ULL.

4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Texans +3.5

Bottom Line: The Texans have been more impressive than Pittsburgh this season. They've lost their last 2 but those came on the road in OT to 6-1 Dallas and at home by 5 to 5-2 Indianapolis. Because Houston played the Thursday game last week, it has had an extra three days to prepare. The extra prep time gives the edge to J.J. Watt and the Houston defense. Watt has four sacks and leads the league in QB hits with 20. Ben Roethlisberger has already been sacked 17 times and looks to be a sack-fumble waiting to happen in this one. While I'm paying a little extra for the hook (because I hate kissing my sister), I still like the Texans at +3 (the largely available line) so the following system applies. When the line is +3 to -3, playing against home teams that allowed 30 points or more last game has resulted in a 64-30 ATS record since 1983 if they are matched up against an opponent that's off a loss of 6 points or less. This system tightens up to 24-8 ATS the last 10 seasons. Bet Houston.

5* Wiseguy NFC East Game of the Month on Giants +7

Bottom Line: This line is inflated due to New York's poor showing last week and Dallas' big win in Seattle. This has become a huge rivalry game in the NFC East. Both teams know each other well, and I fully expect this one to go right down to the wire. Each of the last 4 meetings have been decided by 7 points or less with the last 3 being decided by 5 or less. Also, 8 of the last 10 have been decided by 7 points or fewer. Underdogs or pickems that were held to 9 points or less last game are 36-13 ATS since 1983 if they average 18-23 ppg on the season and are taking on a team that averages 27 ppg or more. The dog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Giants are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 at Dallas. Pound New York.

4* Major AFC *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Bengals +3

Bottom Line: The Bengals haven't performed well on the defensive side of the football the past 2 weeks and went 0-1-1 as a result. After a disappointing sister-kissing performance, they'll be ready to go. They crushed the Colts 42-28 last season, and I'm confident they're still the better team. Cincy is 11-1 ATS since 1992 after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games and has won by an average of 2.7 points in this situation while holding foes to just 19.7 points. The Bengals are also 9-1 ATS in road games after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game under coach Lewis and have won by an average of 5.6 points in this spot. When the line is +3 to -3, plays against teams like Indy that are off 2 straight dominating performances where they had 34+ minutes of possession time and 24+ first downs has resulted in a 26-8 ATS record since 1983. Bet the Bengals.

5* Wiseguy NFL Letdown Game of the Year on Falcons +7.5

Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for Baltimore, which has won 4 of 5 and played flawless football versus Tampa Bay last week. With a big division game at Cincinnati on deck, I see the Ravens looking right past an Atlanta team that has dropped 3 straight. We are getting the Falcons at a great number because of their recent results. Consider that October underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 24-7 ATS the last 10 seasons after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games. The Ravens are on a 0-4-1 ATS slide following a game where they covered the spread and a 0-3-1 ATS slide when they check in off a victory of more than 14 points. The Falcons are on a 14-5 ATS run when coming off a double-digit defeat. Atlanta's defense has let it down to this point, but I expect its best performance of the season here given its level of motivation. The Falcons are one of the most explosive teams in the NFL and will have enough fire power to keep this one within the number. Pound Atlanta.

5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Week on Tennessee +16.5

Bottom Line: Ole Miss is off back-to-back huge wins over Alabama and Texas A&M and has covered the spread in every game this season. As a result, odds makers have overinflated the line, giving us a great opportunity to strike with Tennessee. The Vols have played some great competition, stepping on the field with Oklahoma, Georgia and Florida. It lost to Georgia and Florida by 4 points combined, and while Florida might not be at the level of Ole Miss this season, Georgia is. The Tennessee defense has been extremely impressive, holding foes to 19.2 points and 316.3 ypg. I think the Vols will be solid enough defensively to keep this one within the number. Tennessee is a reliable 29-12 ATS in road games in weeks 5 through 9 (typically conference contests) since 1992. Additionally, road teams that have held their opponents to 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 100-57 ATS the last 3 seasons. Pound Tennessee.

4* Major ACC *BEST BET* on Virginia +3

Bottom Line: I'll grab the field goal with Virginia giving the motivational and situational edges it has in this game. The Cavs have lost 2 straight to Duke by double digits so they'll want this one just a little bit more. Plus, they will benefit from having had an extra week to game plan. The Cavs have been a sweet investment, going 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8. They are even 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 versus winning teams and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games versus teams with a winning home record. Bet Virginia.

5* Wiseguy Big Ten Game of the Year on Maryland -4.5

Bottom Line: Maryland was crushed by 28 at home in its last game, which means it went into its bye week hungry. Teams tend to respond following lopsided losses, especially at home, and Maryland is 21-8 ATS the last 22 seasons in home games after a defeat of 17 or more points. Iowa blew out Indiana last Saturday but was fortunate to do so. It had a week to prepare for Indiana's running attack and allowed the Hoosiers to rack up 316 yards on the ground. It was outgained for the game, and I think the Hawkeyes were in trouble if Sudfeld (QB) isn't lost to injury. The Hawkeyes are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Maryland didn't run the football well at all against Ohio State, and you can bet that didn't set well with coach Edsall. His teams are 18-6 ATS all-time after being held to 75 or less rushing yards. Pound Maryland.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Houston -7

Bottom Line: Playing against underdogs of 3.5-10.0 points that are off two straight wins against conference opponents and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off a road win has resulted in a 58-20 (74%) ATS record the last 10 seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 6.5 points on average and have lost by 12.4 points on average. Houston returns 17 starters from a team that went on the road last season and defeated Temple by 9 points. That game was even more lopsided than the score indicates as the Cougars outgained the Owls 524-300. While the Owls are improved, they haven't closed the gap enough to keeps this one within the number. Pound Houston.

4* Major Pac-12 *POWERHOUSE* on Oregon State +3

Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with Oregon State at home with extra time to prepare against a Utah team it has had the number of. Oregon State went on the road and upset the Utes last season, and the Beavers won by double digits at home the previous year. The Utes are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games following a win and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference games. The Beavers are 19-7 ATS following a bye week under coach Riley and 43-16-1 ATS in their last 60 games in October. The Beavers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the schools. When odds makers are expecting a close game, it hasn't been wise to bet against Oregon State, which is 27-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 under Riley. It has won these games by an average of 3.5 points. Bet the Beavers.

5* Wiseguy NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month on Jets +10

Bottom Line: The Jets haven't covered a spread all season and are being undervalued as a result. Playing road dogs or pickems after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, provided they are a terrible team winning 25% or less of their games on the season, has resulted in an 18-5 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Additionally, October underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 24-7 ATS the last 10 seasons. The Jets know the Patriots well, which is a big reason why 3 of the past 4 meetings have been decided by 3 points. Pound New York.

4* Major NLCS GM5 *BLOOD BATH* on Cardinals +137

Bottom Line: Bumgarner has been hittable at home where he posted a 4.03 ERA during the regular season. In 5 postseason home starts, he's 1-3 with a 5.06 ERA. Unlike Bumgarner, Wainwright has been at his best on the road where he's recorded a 2.07 ERA in 19 starts this season. St. Louis is 11-3 this season in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses. The Cardinals are 10-2 in their last 12 games versus a left-handed starter. The Red Birds are 15-1 in road games the last 2 seasons when Wainwright gets the start versus a club that strands 6.9 or less base runners per game. The Giants are 5-14 in home games the last 2 seasons when Bumgarner starts versus an NL club with a batting average of .255 or worse. The Cardinals are 5-2 in Wainwright's last 7 starts versus the Giants while the Giants are 2-5 in Bumgarners last 7 starts versus the Cardinals.

5* Wiseguy ACC Game of the Week on Pittsburgh -110

Bottom Line: The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for Pittsburgh, which has lost its last three. At home and with extra time to regroup, I expect the Panthers to get back in the win column. Pitt has been a terrific bounce-back team (in terms of the number), going 22-7-1 ATS in its last 30 following a loss. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 following a win. The Hokies are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 0-5 ATS in the last 5 at Pittsburgh. Pound the Panthers.

5* Wiseguy NLCS *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Cardinals -102

Bottom Line: The Giants can't be trusted with Vogelsong on the hill. They are 3-7 in his last 10 starts and 3-8 in his last 11 home starts. Vogelsong has an ERA of 5.11 in 11 career starts against the Red Birds and has given up 11 runs in his last 3 starts against them spanning 18 2-3 innings. Vogelsong has also allowed 4 runs in 3 of his last 4 starts while Miller has limited foes to 3 runs or fewer in each of his last 8 outings. Miller has allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of his last 7 and 1 run or none in 4 of his last 6. The Cards are 5-1 in his last 6 starts and 2-0 in 2 career starts versus the Giants, during which he's given up only 2 runs in 12 1-3 innings. Pound St. Louis.

4* Major MLB Playoffs *BEST BET* on Royals +107

Bottom Line: The Royals, who are 7-0 in their last 7, are showing solid value in the home dog role. The Royals are 8-0 in their last 8 games as an underdog and 5-0 in their last 5 home games versus a left-handed starter. Chen was rocked versus Detroit and has a 5.17 ERA over his last 3 starts. Guthrie is in top form with a 0.44 ERA over his last 3 starts, and the Royals are 27-12 in his last 39 home starts. The Orioles are now 0-4 in their last 4 meetings with Kansas City, which just continues to find ways to win. KC is the best in the game at manufacturing runs while Baltimore relies on the long ball. Unfortunately for the O's, Kauffmann is one of the least homer-friendly ballparks in the game. Bet KC.

5* Wiseguy Sun Belt Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Lafayette +3

Bottom Line: The Ragin' Cajuns are 2-3 but have played a tough schedule with games at Ole Miss and Boise State. They were the preseason pick of most to win the Sun Belt with 17 starters back. They are off to a 1-0 start in the league, but they have no time to relax as Georgia Southern is already 4-0 in conference play. Lafayette won last season's battle 48-24 while outgaining the Bobcats 572-196. Normally, I would look to play the revenge angle here, but I expect the Ragin' Cajuns to be ready after narrowly escaping Georgia State last time out. Texas State is 3-2 and averaging 38.6 ppg but hasn't played the same caliber of opponents as Lafayette. Besides, the Cajuns are 6-0 ATS in road games versus teams that average 31 ppg or more under coach Hudspeth, and they have won these games by an average of 12.3 points. Pound ULL.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Rams +4

Bottom Line: Playing against teams like the 49ers that carry a win percentage of 51% to 60% has resulted in a 130-80 ATS record since 1983 if they are matched up against a team with a win percentage of 25% or worse. Additionally, playing on home teams that have lost 2 of their last 3 against the spread has resulted in a 127-75 ATS record since 1983 if they have a win percentage of 25% or worse and are playing a winning team. The focus in San Francisco seems to be on the team's relationship with coach Harbaugh, not football. Plus, the Niners travel to defending AFC champ Denver next week and will have a hard time not looking ahead to that game. This is a great spot for the home team to pull off an upset. Pound the Rams.

4* Major NLCS GM2 *BEST BET* on Cardinals -130

Bottom Line: The Cardinals are 53-28 all-time under Matheny when seeking revenge for a loss where they were held to 1 run or none, including 21-8 this season. This speaks to both Matheny's ability to push the right buttons the next time out and the toughness of his team. The Cards are 16-5 this season in Lynn's starts when the money line is +100 to -150, and I'm not hesitating to get behind him in this price range at home where he has a 2.50 ERA. Peavy's clubs have dropped 11 of his 17 road starts this season while he's posted a 4.36 ERA. Bet the Cardinals.

5* Wiseguy AFC Game of the Year on Raiders +7.5

Bottom Line: Firing the head coach makes a statement. It sends the message that nobody's job is safe. Fueled by an 0-4 start and having had a bye week to gear up, I expect to see a completely different Oakland Raiders team Sunday. Playing on underdogs or pickems that average 17.0 ppg or less has resulted in a 55-26 ATS record the last 10 seasons, provided they gave up 35 points or more last time out. Teams fitting this scenario have been underdogs of 7.7 points on average but have lost by just 4.4 points. The Raiders have been a good bounce-back team at 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. Also, the underdog has completely dominated this matchup going 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Pound Oakland.

4* Major NFL *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Jets +10.5

Bottom Line: After 4 consecutive losses, Rex Ryan's job is on the line. So is Geno Smith's. I expect both to respond. This is a terrible spot for Denver, which takes the road for just the 2nd time this season and is riding high following a convincing win over Arizona. With the 49ers, Chargers and Patriots on deck, the Broncos will have a tough time getting up for the Jets. I'll gladly take the points in a game the New York has an excellent chance to win outright. Turnovers have been an issue for the Jets, but Denver has forced only 3 all season. Plus, New York is one of the best defensive teams in the league and has the ability to pressure Manning. It's tied for the NFL lead in sacks with 17. Playing against road teams after a win by 21 or more points that are up against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game has resulted in a 35-10 ATS record the last 10 seasons (14-2 ATS the last 5 seasons). Also, plays on any team after 5 straight games of forcing 1 turnover or less against an opponent that is off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse has resulted in a 40-12 ATS record since 1983. Desperate teams are the best teams, and this is a very desperate spot for Rex Ryan and company.

4* Major AFC East *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Bills +3

Bottom Line: Playing against teams with a winning record that are off an upset with at home and are up against another winning team has resulted in an 81-38 ATS record since 1983. This system is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. Additionally, playing against road teams that scored 30 points or more last game and are up against a team that scored 3 points or less in the 1st half last game has resulted in an 85-41 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is 5-0 ATS this season. The Pats are a lousy 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 30 points and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Orton's teams are 5-0 ATS all-time in his starts versus teams with a win percentage of 55-65%.

4* Major SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas A&M -2

Bottom Line: This is a major letdown spot for Ole Miss following a massive win over Alabama. Meanwhile, this is a bounce back spot for A&M after getting taken out behind the woodshed by Mississippi State. A&M gave up 559 yards to the Bulldogs, but it is 10-1 ATS in home games after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. The defense has held the opposition to an average of 13.6 points in this situation. Sumlin's teams are a sensational 21-9 ATS lifetime as home chalk, and his Texas A&M teams are 6-0 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. They've won these 6 by an average of 28.0 points.

4* Major NLCS GAME 1 *BEST BET* on Cardinals -120

Bottom Line: The Cards have the edge on the mound with Wainwright. They are 5-1 in his last 6 starts versus the Giants. He's held them to 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts against them. The Giants are 1-5 in Bumgarner's last 6 starts versus the Cards. He's allowed 4 earned runs or more in 4 of these starts, including 5 or more in 3 of the last 4. The Cardinals are 10-1 in their last 11 games versus a left-handed starter and 6-1 in their last 7 League Championship Series home games. The Giants haven't been a good underdog play, going just 13-29 in their last 42 in the role. The Cards are an awesome 70-25 under Matheny in home games in the 2nd half of the season versus NL clubs that average 4.3 runs per game or less.

4* Major *DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH* on UTSA -12

Bottom Line: This game depends on which UTSA team shows up. Will it be the one that took Arizona down to the wire or the one that didn't show up against New Mexico? Following the New Mexico debacle, I'm expecting a huge bounce-back effort. Based on statistics, I ran 2 simulations and both had UTSA winning 31-9 while outgaining FIU 409-194. The Roadrunners ran for 155 yards and passed for 254 while holding the Golden Panthers to just 4.5 yards per pass attempt. Based on these simulations, the following trends apply. UTSA is 6-0 ATS when its allows 8 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons, 8-0 ATS when it scores 29 to 35 points over the last 3 seasons, 6-0 ATS when it rushes for 150 to 200 yards over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS when it allows 5 or less net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons.

4* Major National TV *POWERHOUSE* on North Carolina +17

Bottom Line:This is a look-ahead spot for Notre Dame, which is coming off a satisfying win over Stanford and has a showdown with defending champion Florida State next week. UNC won't get its full focus, and that gives it an excellent opportunity to keep this one within the number. Playing on average offensive teams (UNC) that gain 4.8 to 5.6 ypp that are up against good defensive teams (ND) that allow 4.2 to 4.8 ypp has resulted in a 26-7 ATS record the last 22 years, provided the play on side has given up 525 ypg or more in its previous 3 contests. Teams fitting this system has been underdogs of 14.8 points on average but have lost by only 7.0 points on average.

5* Wiseguy ACC Atlantic Division GAME OF THE YEAR on Clemson -9.5

Bottom Line: Louisville doesn't have enough offense to keep this one within the number. In 3 road games, the Cardinals are averaging only 323 ypg. They've been bailed out by their defense, but it won't be able to hold down a Clemson offense that's averaging 585 ypg at home. Louisville's defense currently ranks #1 in the nation, but it is yet to face a team with an explosive passing attack. Expect to see several big plays out of the Tigers with no answer from Louisville against Clemson's Top 10 defense. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams that have a winning record. Clemson is 9-0 ATS lifetime at home under Dabo Swinney when laying 7.5 to 14 points and has won by an average of 23.0 points in these games. Pound Clemson.

4* Major ACC Coastal Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Duke +3

Bottom Line: Duke has lost 10 straight to the Yellow Jackets so it will have no problem getting up for this one. I like its chances of earning an outright victory after having had a bye week to gear up. In a conference matchup of low-turnover teams that average 1.25 giveaways per game or fewer, playing against home favorites has resulted in a 79-36 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Duke is 10-2 ATS versus teams that commit 1 turnover per game or less under coach David Cutcliffe. This trend speaks volumes about the Blue Devils. They've had a lot of success against teams that don't beat themselves.

4* Major National TV *POWERHOUSE* on Syracuse +23.5

Bottom Line: FSU will be much more concerned with next week's showdown with Notre Dame than a Syracuse team it defeated 59-3 last season. That brutally embarrassing loss along with last week's ugly performance versus Louisville assures us the Orange will be highly motivated. Syracuse is 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons following a loss to a conference rival. The Seminoles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games.

4* Major Early Letdown on UL Monroe +21.5

Bottom Line: Off a big win over South Carolina and with LSU up next, Kentucky won't give the Warhawks its full attention. The Wildcats are a dismal 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win, and I'm not hesitating to fade them laying a big number in this letdown spot.

5* Wiseguy *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on UNLV +10

Bottom Line: The UNLV Rebels fit into a powerful system tonight. Playing underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that allow 16 ppg or more in the 1st half and are off 2 or more consecutive unders has resulted in a 71-37 ATS record since 1992. Teams fitting theses parameters have lost on average but only by 4.3 points. Additionally, the Fresno State Bulldogs are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 Friday night contests. The Rebels, meanwhile, are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference matchups. The Bulldogs have a big showdown with Boise State up next and will look right past a UNLV squad that has dropped 4 straight. The Rebels have lost by more than 10 points just 2 times in their last 16 home games. That's a rock solid trend I'll gladly get behind. Pound UNLV.

4* Major ALCS GAME 1 *BLOOD BATH* on Orioles -127

Bottom Line: I'm getting behind the O's at home, where they are 37-15 in their last 52, with Tillman on the hill. They are 10-0 in his last 10 at home where he has a 2.59 ERA on the season. The O's are 8-0 in his last 8 starts as a favorite and 5-0 in his last 5 starts versus AL Central foes. The O's won 3 straight over the last 3 AL Cy Young winners while putting up 21 runs. If they can get past Verlander, Scherzer and Price, they can get past Shields, who has an ERA of nearly 5.00 through two postseason starts. Bet Baltimore.

4* Major Thursday Night Football *BLOOD BATH* on Colts -2.5

Bottom Line: The Colts have owned the AFC South and are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 division games. They've also won 9 straight on Thursday with 7 of those coming on the road. They are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games while the Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. The Colts are 3-0 in their last 3 versus Houston. Indianapolis is the superior team with the superior QB. It leads the NFL in scoring and ranks 2nd in total offense. Its passing attack leads the league with 321.8 ypg. The defense has really picked it up too, holding foes to just 15.7 points and 297.3 yards the last 3 weeks. Houston ranks 24th in scoring and 22nd in total offense. It ranks 4th in scoring defense but is extremely fortunate that's the case because it ranks 26th in total defense with 385.4 ypg allowed. The Texans have benefited from timely takeaways but eventually the luck runs out. Bet the Colts.

5* Wiseguy CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on BYU +3

Bottom Line: Even with starting QB Taysom Hill out, BYU is a better football team than Central Florida. Backup QB Christian Stewart struggled last week, but I'm confident he'll be much better after getting 1st team snaps for 5 days. He's a better player than UCF starting QB Justin Holman, who was just 6 of 18 for 101 yards versus Houston last week. The Knights are relying heavily on their run game but won't be able to do so here against a BYU stop unit that is holding foes under the century mark on the ground. UCF has done a good job against the run too but is overmatched here, just like it was against Mizzou when it allowed over 5 ypc. BYU is a dominant 8-1 ATS off a loss the last 3 seasons, winning by 22.2 points on average in these games. Pound the Cougars.

4* Major NLDS *BEST BET* on Nationals -125

Bottom Line: Big momentum shift in favor of the Nationals with last night's win. When the Giants have been an underdog at home, it's been for good reason. They are 1-12 in their last 13 games as a home underdog. They are 0-6 in Vogelsong's last 6 starts as a home underdog. The Giants are now 0-4 in their last 4 Divisional Playoff home games. The Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 road games and 6-0 in their last 6 road games versus a right-handed starter. Gonzalez is in better form than Vogelsong, who has a 5.06 ERA over his last 3 starts. Gonzo has been lights out down the stretch with a 2.36 ERA over his last 7 starts. He's posted a 1.46 ERA in his last 4 starts versus the Giants, and the Nats are 3-0 in his last 3 starts against them. The Giants are 0-2 in Vogelsong's starts versus Washington this season, and he has an ERA of 7.94 in 5 career starts against the Nats.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Redskins +8

Bottom Line: The Redskins are a better team than their record leads you to believe, and I expect them to respond after getting spanked by the Giants in their last game. Washington boasts a Top 10 offense and defense, ranking 4th in the NFL with 415.2 ypg and 9th with 324.2 ypg allowed. The Redskins are also one of the top pass rushing teams in the league. They are 11-4 all-time in regular-season matchups with Seattle, including 6-0 in the last 6. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that give up 24 ppg or more and are off a loss of 28 points or more are 68-34 ATS since 1983. This system is 1-0 ATS this season, 10-3 ATS the last 3 seasons, 15-5 ATS the last 5 and 33-12 ATS the last 10. Pound Washington.

4* Major NLDS *BEST BET* on Nationals +123

Bottom Line: I expect the Nationals to extend this series. They are 13-3 in their last 16 road games versus a team with a winning home record, 4-0 in their last 4 road games overall, 5-1 in their last 6 games after losing the first 2 games of a series and 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in San Francisco. Bumgarner hasn't been the same pitcher at home where he has a 4.03 ERA. Fister's road ERA (3.05) is nearly a run lower. The Giants are 5-11 in Bumgarner's last 16 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 1-5 in his last 6 starts versus the Nationals, including 0-3 in his last 3. 2 of these 3 defeats were at home. The Nationals are 18-6 in Fister's last 24 starts and 6-2 in his last 8 road starts. Additionally, the Nats are 8-0 this season in Firster's starts after a game where he did not walk a batter. They have by an average of 3.7 runs in this spot.

4* Major ALDS *BEST BET* on Angels +122

Bottom Line: The Halos are showing value at this price as I believe their bats are due. Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton are too good to continue their struggles at the plate. LA is a perfect 8-0 the last 2 seasons in road games after scoring 3 runs or less in 3 straight games and has busted out to win by an average score of 6.9 to 2.1 in this situation. Wilson has a pretty good track record against the Royals. He's 4-0 (6-1 on the money line) in 7 career starts against them with a 3.18 ERA. Shields has a losing record at home and is in poor current form (5.09 ERA L3 starts). The Royals are 3-7 in his last 10 starts as a home favorite. The Angels are 38-17 in the last 55 meetings in Kansas City. Bet the Halos.

4* Major Sunday NFL Late Afternoon *BLOOD BATH* on Jets +7

Bottom Line: The Jets are better than their 1-3 record might lead you to believe. They have outgained their foes 366 yards to 291 yards on average. The Chargers have outgained their opponents just 352-325 on average. The Jets allow a league-low 63.3 rushing yards per game and rank 3rd in total defense at 291.2. The Chargers are getting nothing from their running game following injuries to Matthews and Woodhead. Rivers was able to do it on his own against Jacksonville, but this New York defense is too good. I expect it to wreak havok against a one-dimension San Diego offensive attack. The Jets have won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 6 of the last 8 meetings. They are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last 5 at San Diego. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet the Jets.

4* Major NFL *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Broncos -7.5

Bottom Line: With an OT loss at Seattle in last game, Denver entered its bye week knowing it needs to step it up if it's going to dethrone the Seahawks at season's end. Denver has responded well, going 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games following a loss. It is also 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after being held to 75 or less rushing yards. The Broncos are 16-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points under coach Fox. Playing against any team off an upset home win over a division rival has resulted in a 40-13 ATS record since 1983, provided they are a winning team playing another team with a winning record. This system has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Broncos are 7-1-1 against Arizona, including 4-0 at home while outscoring the Red Birds 106-32.

5* Wiseguy NFL Underdog Game of the Year on Bills +7.5

Bottom Line: The Bills are being greatly undervalued because of 2 consecutive SU and ATS losses. The defense played well in both games, but the Bills were let down by QB play. Detroit's back-to-back SU and ATS wins also plays into us catching a great number. The Bills will benefit from the insertion of Orton, who is a more accurate passer than Manuel and will be smarter with the football. His experience works in our favor in this matchup. This is too many points for Buffalo to be catching given how good it has been defensively. It ranks 7th in the league in scoring defense with 18.8 ppg allowed and 10th in total defense with 337.8 ypg allowed. I also like Buffalo to be able to run the football. The Lions hadn't been tested on the ground until last week when the Jets rushed for 132 yards on nearly 5 ypc. I expect the Bills, who average 122.2 ypg on the ground, to establish the run Sunday after getting away from their ground game the past couple weeks. If Detroit wants to stack the box, Orton has proven he can make teams pay. The Bills are 10-1 ATS off a road loss the last 3 seasons and have won these by an average of 6.9 points. Pound Buffalo.

4* Major Cardinals/Dodgers NLDS GM 2 *BEST BET* on Dodgers -1.5 +138

Bottom Line: Greinke has been lights out at Chavez Ravine where the Dodgers have won 24 of his last 30 starts. They are 4-0 in his last 4 at home with these wins coming by 3.8 runs on average. The Cards are 0-4 in Lynn's last 4 starts, dropping them by 2.5 runs on average. Lynn was rocked at Chavez Ravine during the regular season, giving up 7 runs in 2 innings of a 9-1 loss. He was opposed by Greinke, who gave up just the 1 run on 4 hits in 7 innings. Greinke's teams are 7-0 in his home starts against the Cards dating back to 2010, and they have won these by an average of 3.9 runs. All 7 of these wins came by 2 runs or more.

4* Major Sun Belt *SUREFIRE* on Idaho +17

Bottom Line: Off an emotional overtime upset win at Tulsa, this looks to be a letdown spot for Texas State. The Bobcats have cruised against Idaho the past 2 seasons and will likely be looking ahead to their bye week as a result. Playing on road underdogs off a home loss of 14 points or more that return at least 17 starters has resulted in a 67-31 ATS record since 1992. Teams fitting this system have lost on average but only by 11.9 points so the value is there at this line.

5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Year on Auburn -7.5

Bottom Line: With this line, the books are begging for action on LSU, which handed Auburn its only defeat of the 2013 regular season. We won't take the bait. That loss is all the motivation Auburn will need Saturday. Under Malzahn, Auburn is 7-0 ATS versus teams that have a winning record, 6-0 ATS versus teams with a win percentage above 75%, 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 34 ppg or more, 7-0 ATS versus teams that average 450 ypg or more, 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 8 or more passing yards per attempt and 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game. Auburn is also 9-0 ATS in its last 9 conference games. Pound Auburn.

4* Major Giants/Nationals NLDS GM 2 *BEST BET* on Nationals -1.5 +110

Bottom Line: The Nationals are 11-0 in Zimmermann's last 11 starts and have won these by 3.1 runs on average. The Giants are 0-5 in Hudson's last 5 starts and have lost these by an average of 7.2 runs. Hudson's arm has looked fatigued down the stretch, which is a product of being 39 years old and not used to pitching this late in the year. He hasn't pitched in the postseason since 2010. Nats get the call on the run line.

4* Major MAC *MONSTER* on Eastern Michigan +23

Bottom Line: Eastern Michigan has lost its last 3 games by double digits but 2 of those were at Florida and Michigan State. It had last week off following that daunting stretch and should benefit from the extra recovery and preparation time this week. Akron is in a letdown spot following a huge upset win at Pitt. It won by 11 points as a 20.5-point dog. Eastern Mich is on a 16-6 ATS run in road games following a road defeat of 21 points or more. Playing on road underdogs that are off a loss of 21 points or more and up against an opponent that had scored 7 points or less in the 1st half in 2 straight games has resulted in a 49-19 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system has gone 15-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Akron. Bet Eastern Mich.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on San Diego State +3

Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, road teams the average 16.0 ppg or more in the 1st half that are off a game that went under the total are 56-22 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is 34-9 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. The Aztecs are an awesome 15-4 straight up (13-6 ATS) in their last 19 conference contests. They'll be out for some serious revenge here after losing last season's battle in OT despite outgaining the Bulldogs by 166 total yards. Odds makers expected the Aztecs to have their revenge by opening them as the 1.5-point favorite. The line has gone the other way with Quinn Kaehler expected to miss, but his absence doesn't warrant that big of a swing. Pound San Diego State as they win this game with their running attack and defense.

5* Wiseguy MLB Playoffs Game of the Week on Angels -146

Bottom Line: I fully expect LA to bounce back at home where it is 41-18 in its last 59. The Royals are 2-6 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, 2-5 in their last 7 game 2's of a series and 2-7 in their last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Angels are 11-4 in their last 15 game 2's of a series. Ventura has had a great season for the Royals, but Shoemaker has been a little bit better. His 2.06 home ERA is over a run lower than Ventura's road mark. The Angels are 7-0 in Shoemaker's last 7 starts as a favorite and 6-0 in his last 6 starts in the 2nd game of a series. Pound the Angels.

4* Major MLB Playoffs *BEST BET* on Angels -173

Bottom Line: It will be tough for the Royals to put Tuesday's emotionally and physically draining win behind them as they hit the road with a disadvantage on the rubber. Vargas has struggled of late with the Royals going 0-4 in his last 4 starts while he's allowed at least 4 runs in each. Vargas pitched for the Angels last season, and their familiarity with his stuff showed the last time they faced him, touching him for 6 runs in 4 innings. Weaver has dominated the Royals. LA is 6-0 in his last 6 starts against them, and he's giving up 2 runs or less in each. He allowed 1 run or none in 5 of those and gave up no runs in 3 of those. The Angels are 75-31 lifetime in Weaver's home night starts. They're 71-33 in his last 104 starts overall. LA is also an awesome 41-14 as a favorite of -150 or higher this season.