Winning Sports Picks

4* Major MLB *BLOOD BATH* on Royals -141

Bottom Line: The Rangers are awful at home and come in having dropped 5 of their last 7. Kansas City has won 6 of 8 and I look for the Royals to win here rather easily. Kansas City has a big edge on the mound with Yordano Ventura going up against Colby Lewis. Ventura has a 2.81 ERA over his last 4 starts, while Lewis is just 2-7 with a 7.29 ERA at home. The Royals are 37-14 in their last 51 games as a road favorite, 14-3 in their last 17 games versus a right-handed starter and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series. Bet Kansas City.

4* Major MLB Run Line Blowout on Braves -1.5 +110

Bottom Line: Atlanta had their 5-game losing streak snapped last night in disappointing fashion, as they blew a 2-0 lead in the 8th and ended up losing 2-3 in the 9th. I look for the Braves to bounce right back with an easy win on Thursday, as they have a huge edge on the mound with Julio Teheran going up against Cincinnati's David Holmberg. Teheran comes in off a strong outing against the A's and was dominant in his only start against the Reds this season, holding them to just 3 hits over 8 shutout innings. Cincinnati will give the ball to David Holmberg, who in his only start this season was rocked by a poor Cubs offense for 5 runs on 7 hits and 3 walks in just 2.3 innings of work. Bet Atlanta.

4* Major Angels/Red Sox MLB Marquee Matchup on Angels -137

Bottom Line: The Angels are a sizzling 6-1 over their last 7 games and I look for them finish off the sweep of the slumping Red Sox behind their young ace Garrett Richards. After a poor finish to July, Richards has been lights out in 3 August starts. He's got a 1.19 ERA and 0.838 WHIP over this stretch, which includes a complete game 5-hit shutout and strong outing against Boston (1 run, 3 hits, 6 1/3 innings). Boston's Clay Buchholz has an ugly 7.00 ERA and 1.704 WHIP at home and a mere 4.42 ERA and 1.434 WHIP over 12 career starts against the Angels. Buchholz is 2-8 in 10 home starts this season and 4-11 in 15 starts at night. Angels are 6-1 in their last 7 against a right-handed starter, 10-2 in their last 12 road games against a team with a losing record and 9-1 in Richards' last 10 starts as a road favorite. Take Los Angeles.

4* Major MLB Run Line Blowout on Royals -1.5 +115

Bottom Line: No team has been better in interleague play than the Royals, who own the best mark in baseball at 14-4. Kansas City is also a MLB-best 16-3 since July 30 and have won 7 straight interleague contests on the road. I look for Colorado to win here by 2+ runs easily. The Royals will send out their ace James Shields against struggling rookie Tyler Matzek. Shields has a 2.55 ERA over his last 5 starts against the NL and limited the Rockies to 1 runs on 5 hits over 7 innings earlier this season. Matzek is 2-7 with a 5.43 ERA over 12 starts and has been brutal of late with a 9.60 ERA over his last 3. Kansas City has gone 21-9 against the run line after 4 or more consecutive road games and 13-2 in Shield's last 15 starts away from home. Bet Kansas City.

5* Wiseguy Monday Night Football *BEST BET* on Browns +3

No analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.

4* Major MLB *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Pirates -107

Bottom Line: The Braves are 0-8 in their last 8 road games, 0-7 in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning record, 0-6 in their last 6 road games versus a right-handed starter, 0-5 in their last 5 games as a road underdog and 1-5 in Santana's last 6 road starts.  The Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 home games versus a team with a winning record and 5-1 in Worley's last 6 starts as a favorite.  Bet the Pirates.

5* Wiseguy Sunday Night Baseball Game of the Month on A's -142

Bottom Line: Oakland holds the advantage with Lester going.  The southpaw has a 2.51 ERA and a 1.111 WHIP on the season.  His clubs are 10-1 in his last 11 starts.  The Braves are 0-6 in their last 6 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150.  Atlanta's Minor has a 5.33 ERA and a 1.576 WHIP on the season.  The Braves are 2-10 in Minor's last 12 interleague starts.  Oakland is now percentage points behind the Angels in a division it had led since April 23.  I expect that to provide some added motivation tonight.  Pound the A's.

5* Wiseguy NFL Preseason *BEST BET* on 49ers -4

No analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.

5* Wiseguy NFL Preseason Game of the Week on Houston Texans -3

No analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Red Sox -162

Bottom Line: Boston's 4-game win streak came to an end with last night's extra-innings loss, but I like the Red Sox to bounce back strong.  Houston's Peacock has a 6.47 ERA on the road, a 10.53 ERA over his last 3 starts and a 14.75 ERA in a pair of starts versus Boston.  The Astros are 0-4 in his last 4 starts, 0-9 in his last 9 starts on regular rest (4 days) and 0-2 in his starts versus Boston.  De La Rosa has quietly been really good, especially at home where he has a
1.97 ERA.  The Red Sox are 31-13 in their last 44 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  The Astros are 5-16 in the last 21 meetings and 1-8 in the last 9 meetings in Boston.  Pound the Red Sox.

5* Wiseguy AL Game of the Week on Royals -139

Bottom Line: Kansas City's Duffy has a 2.57 ERA and a 1.089 WHIP on the season.  His ERA and WHIP are even lower on the road. His WHIP is extremely significant because the Twins are 0-17 this season versus AL starters with a WHIP of 1.100 or better, and they have lost these contests by 3.8 runs on average.  The Royals are 4-0 in Duffy's last 4 starts, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus the Twins.  Expect to see some rust on Nolasco, who hasn't made a big-league start since July 6.  He has a 5.90 ERA on the season.  Pound the Royals.

5* Wiseguy NFLX *BEST BET* on Titans +3.5

Typically no analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Year on Cardinals -161

Bottom Line: I love the Cardinals at home against the Padres tonight.  The Cards are 75-34 in the last 109 meetings, including 40-12 in the last 52 in St. Louis.  The Cards are also a perfect 14-0 in home games in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons versus NL teams that average 3.8 runs per game or less.  They have won these games by 4.6 runs on average.  The Cardinals are 43-15 in their last 58 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.  Stults can't be trusted on the road where he's 1-9 with a 5.37 ERA in 13 starts.  The Padres are 3-9 in Stults' last 12 starts and 7-20 in his last 27 road starts.  Lackey is 6-3 with a 3.16 ERA in 11 home starts, and his home ERA likely would be lower had he been pitching in the NL all season.  Pound St. Louis.

5* Wiseguy NFLX *BEST BET* on Jaguars +4

Typically no analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Mariners -161

Bottom Line: The Mariners hold a significant advantage on the rubber with Iwakuma, who has a 2.86 ERA on the season and a 1.66 ERA over his last three starts.  He's given up 2 runs or less in 7 of his last 8 starts.  Dickey has a 4.10 ERA in 25 starts and a 4.03 ERA in 12 road starts.  He's allowed 4 runs or more in 6 of his last 10 starts.  The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 road games, 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a right-handed starter and 0-4 in Dickey's last 4 starts following a team loss in the previous game.  The Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 games versus winning clubs.  Playing favorites of -150 or more has resulted in an 89-22 record since 1997 if they are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.100 or less over his last 10 starts and have a team batting average of .265 or less and are facing a pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or lower.  This system is 11-3 on the season.  Pound Seattle.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Nationals -140

Bottom Line: The Nationals are 8-0 in their last 8 at Citi Field, and they'll be hungry after Sunday's 3-1 loss in Atlanta cost them the series.  The Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game while the Mets are 0-5 in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Fister has been a machine of late with a 0.84 ERA over his last three starts.  He's gone five consecutive starts without allowing more than 2 earned runs.  The Nationals are 5-0 in his last 5 starts on 5 days' rest.  He's also 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA in 2 career starts versus the Mets.  New York is recalling Montero here, and that's good news for the Nats.  The Mets are 0-4 in his 4 career starts while he's compiled a 5.40 ERA.  Pound the Nationals.

4* Major MLB *SUREFIRE* on Orioles -128

Bottom Line: The Orioles are 7-0 in their last seven series openers, and I expect them to get off to a fast start versus the Yankees with Norris on the rubber.  He has a 2.64 ERA in his last 8 starts and a 2.61 ERA in 8 home starts this season.  He has a 2.34 ERA versus the division, and the O's are 6-0 in his last 6 starts versus AL East opponents.  They are also 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite.  Capuano has a 4.91 ERA in 3 relief appearances against the O's this season.  New York has dropped 10 of its last 14 division games and is 3-6 versus Baltimore this season.  The Yanks are also a soft 8-27 in their last 35 as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Bet Baltimore.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Yankees -133

Bottom Line: The Indians evened the series behind their ace, but I don't see them taking the series with Carrasco making his first start since April.  The Indians are just 2-12 in their last 14 in the Bronx.  Carrasco has given up at least 4 earned runs in his last 7 starts, and the Tribe is 3-14 in his last 17 starts and 1-8 in his last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Carrasco is 0-2 in his last 2 starts versus the Yanks, allowing 13 runs in 7 2-3 innings  The Yankees are 7-2 in Kuroda's last 9 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Kuroda has given up more than 3 earned runs only 3 times in his last 15 starts.  Kuroda hasn't allowed more than 5 hits or 3 runs in any of his 3 starts versus the Indians.  Pound the Yankees.

5* Wiseguy NFLX *BEST BET* on Titans -1

Typically no analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Pirates -157

Bottom Line: The Pirates, who are an NL-best 37-22 at home, are worth the price today.  They are 11-2 over their last 13 home games while the Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 on the road, including 0-4 in their last 4 away games versus winning clubs.  Liriano has been lights out of late with a 1.44 ERA in 4 starts since the All-Star break.  The Pirates are 15-5 in his last 20 home starts and 8-1 in his last 9 home starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.  Stults has a 5.77 ERA on the road this season, and the Padres are 6-20 in his last 26 road starts, 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a road underdog and 0-5 in his last 5 starts following a quality start in his last appearance.  Pound the Pirates.

5* Wiseguy NFLX *BEST BET* on Bills -1.5

Typically no analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Reds -123

Bottom Line: Cincy is 8-1 in its last 9 games versus the Marlins.  It is also 19-6 in its last 25 home games versus the Fish.  Look for Cincy's dominance to continue behind Leake, who is 2-0 in his last 2 starts while allowing 1 run in 13 2-3 innings.  He's also 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in 3 career starts versus Miami.  Miami's Eovaldi has a 5.82 ERA over his last 7 starts.  The Marlins are 3-9 in his last 12 starts, 2-8 in his last 10 road starts, 0-4 in his last 4 road starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-6 in his last 6 starts following a quality start in his last appearance.  Cincy is 22-4 lifetime in Leake's home starts in the 2nd half of the season versus teams that strikeout 7 times per game or more.  Pound the Reds.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Pirates -134

Bottom Line: Flynn has made 4 career starts for the Marlins.  They are 0-4 in those starts while he's compiled an 8.50 ERA and a .370 opponent average.  No matter what uniform Volquez has worn, he's own the Marlins.  His clubs are 6-0 in his 6 career starts against them while posting a tidy 1.95 ERA.  Additionally, the Pirates are 5-0 in Volquez's last 5 starts versus teams with a losing record.  Pound the Pirates.

5* Wiseguy NFLX Game of the Week on Jets -3

Typically no analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.

5* Wiseguy Interleague *BEST BET* on Angels -147

Bottom Line: AL clubs that average 4.7 to 5.2 runs per game and are starting a pitcher who averages 5.0 strikeouts per start or more are 54-18 since 1997 if they are matched up against an NL club that is starting a pitcher who has an ERA of 4.20 to 5.20.  Haren has a 4.76 ERA on the season and has really started to unravel, going 0-5 in his last 5 starts with an ERA of 10.03.  Pound the Angels.

5* Wiseguy Interleague Game of the Month on Cardinals -148

Bottom Line: Having yesterday off should be just what the doctor ordered for St. Louis, which is 17-2 the last 2 seasons in home games following a day off.  And, the Cards will show no mercy to the team that defeated them in the World Series.  Boston is 2-10 in its last 12 games and doesn't figure to get much help from De La Rosa, who has a 6.04 ERA on the road.  The Red Sox are 0-4 in De La Rosa's last 4 road starts.  The Cards are 72-32 the last 3 seasons versus teams getting outscored by an average of 0.5 runs or more per game, including 23-3 in home games played in the second half of the season during this span.  Lynn has a 2.98 ERA on the season, a 2.71 ERA at home and a 1.96 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Pound the Cards.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on A's -140

Bottom Line: Cobb is pitching great, but his 3.45 road ERA is over a run higher than the 2.30 home ERA Samardzija has posted.  Plus, the A's have already seen Cobb this season while the Rays have never faced Samardzija.  It will be mighty tough for Tampa to figure out a pitcher it's not familiar with, especially when that pitcher has posted a 0.82 WHIP while holding foes to a .203 avg. since coming over from the NL.  The Athletics are 4-0 in Samardzija's 4 starts as a favorite and 77-34 in their last 111 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  The Rays are 18-45 in their last 63 meetings in Oakland.  Pound the A's.

4* Major NFLX *SUREFIRE* on Giants +3

Bottom Line: NFC teams are 8-2 SU (7-2-1 ATS) vs. AFC teams in contests in Canton.  The Bills are 1-5 SU in preseason openers the last 6 years as well as 1-11 SU (1-10-1 ATS) in their last 12 NFLX non-conference matchups.  The Giants are on an 11-1 SU and ATS run as an underdog or pickem in non-conference preseason openers.  These last two trends combine to create a 21-2 ATS angle I'll gladly get behind.

5* Wiseguy MLB Underdog Game of the Week on Orioles +103

Bottom Line: The Mariners are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win, 0-4 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 0-4 in their last 4 Sunday games and 0-4 in Iwakuma's last 4 starts versus the American League East.  Iwakuma has a 5.25 ERA in 2 career starts versus the Orioles, one of those being a 4-0 home loss last week.  The Orioles are 15-4 in Tillman's last 19 home starts versus a team with a winning record and 11-4 in his last 15 starts as an underdog.  Tillman is 5-0 lifetime with an ERA of 2.46 and a WHIP of 0.909 in 5 starts versus the Mariners.  The Mariners are 6-14 in the last 20 meetings and 3-8 in the last 11 meetings in Baltimore.  Pound the O's.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on White Sox -119

Bottom Line: Here, we have a pair of teams headed in opposite directions, and I'm getting behind the one on the upswing at a very reasonable price.  The Twins are 4-10 in their last 14 games.  They are even 1-7 in their last eight versus teams that have a sub .500 record and 0-4 in their last 4 in the second game of a series.  The White Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 and 4-1 in their last 5 versus Minnesota.  The Twins won at home when Pino and Carroll dueled Sunday, but Carroll gave up just 1 run and has been trending in the right direction with a 2.38 ERA over his last 4 outings.  He gave up 1 or no runs in 3 of those.  Playing against all AL teams with a money line of +125 to -125 that average 4.2 runs per game or fewer and allowed 10 runs or more last game has resulted in a 75-36 record the last 5 seasons.  Additionally, AL home teams with a money line of +125 to -125 that have a team batting averaging of .265 or worse but are batting .300 or better over their last 15 games are 34-14 since 1997, including a perfect 3-0 the last 3 seasons.  Pound Chicago.

5* Wiseguy Run Line Blowout Game of the Month on White Sox -1.5 -125

Bottom Line: Last Saturday, Sale easily outdueled Darnell in a 7-0 win at Minnesota.  I expect no different tonight in Chicago.  Sale is 10-1 with a 1.88 ERA and a 0.864 WHIP on the season.  The WHIP is extremely significant.  Consider that Minnesota is 0-13 this season when facing an AL starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.100 or better.  The Twins have lost these contests by an average of 4.0 runs.  Sale is 6-1 with an ERA of 2.28 and a 0.993 WHIP in 7 career starts against the Twins.  Each of the 6 victories have come by at least 2 runs.  Pound the Sox on the run line.

5* Wiseguy MLB Total of the Week on Reds/Marlins UNDER 6.5

Bottom Line: Cincy's offense is really struggling.  It has scored 3 runs or fewer in 11 of its last 12 games while batting .189.  With Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips on the DL and Jay Bruce on the bereavement list, I see the offensive struggles continuing.  The Reds will have a tough time getting to Koehler, who has a 2.75 home ERA on the season and a 1.38 ERA over his last 2 starts at Marlins Park.  Miami has scored 3 runs or less in 14 of its last 19 games, and it will get nothing easy off Cueto, who has posted a 2.08 ERA.  The under is 37-17-2 in Cueto's last 56 starts.  The under is 9-1 in Cincy's last 10 games and 4-0 in its last 4 road games.  It is also 8-0 in its last 8 games following a loss and 4-0 in its last 4 series openers.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Royals -144

Bottom Line: KC's Duffy has been dealing all season, as evidenced by his 2.47 ERA.  He's been almost unhittable lately with a 1.93 ERA over his last 6 outings and a 0.92 ERA over his last 3.  He has a 2.13 ERA in 6 career appearances versus Minnesota.  Hughes has a 4.10 ERA on the season, a 6.31 ERA over his last 7 starts and a 7.20 ERA over his last 3.  He also has a 5.89 ERA in 9 career starts versus KC.  The Twins are 5-21 this season when facing an AL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or better.  Twins are 1-4 in Hughes' last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 while the Royals are 4-0 in Duffy's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Royals are 45-21 in their last 66 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 25-12 in their last 37 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  KC is 10-4 in its last 14 home games versus Minnesota.  Pound the Royals.

5* Wiseguy NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Dodgers -148

Bottom Line: The Braves are 0-10 the last 2 seasons in road games when facing an NL starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.70 or lower.  They have lost these contests 3.6 runs on average.  Additionally, playing against underdogs of +125 to +175 that have a bullpen ERA of 3.33 or lower on the season but are batting .250 or worse as a team has resulted in a 97-39 record since 1997 if they are facing an NL starter with an ERA of 2.70 or lower.  Plus, this is a tough situational spot for the Braves, which made the long trip from Atlanta to LA following yesterday's game.  The Dodgers should benefit from having been at home yesterday and having the day off.  Pound the Dodgers.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Cubs -142

Bottom Line: The Rockies are 15-37 in their last 52 overall and 25-56 in their last 81 on the road, including 1-12 in their last 13 and 0-6 in their last 6.  They are 16-41 in their last 57 road games versus a left-handed starter, 0-7 in their last 7 Monday games, 5-17 in their last 22 series openers and 7-19 in the last 26 meetings in Chicago.  Colorado is also 0-4 in Flande's 4 career starts, during which he's posted a 7.20 ERA.  The Cubs are 9-3 in their last 12 series openers and have the more promising starter on the hill with Wada.  Flande was 2-10 with an ERA of 5.00 in triple-A this season before getting the call up.  Wada was 10-6 with a 2.77 ERA in triple-A before getting his call.  You want to play against National League July road dogs of +125 to +175 that give up 4.8 runs per game or more on the season as doing so has produced a 43-7 record the last 5 seasons, an 11-1 record the last 3 seasons and a 3-0 record this season.  Pound Chicago.

4* Major MLB Sunday *SUREFIRE* on Twins -123

Bottom Line: The White Sox have taken the first 3 games of this series but have never swept a 4-game series in Minnesota against the Twins.  It's also worth mentioning that the Sox are 6-18 this season following 2 consecutive wins or more.  I don't trust Chicago's Carroll, who has a 6.00 ERA in 10 starts this season.  He has given up 5 earned runs or more in 6 of his last 8 starts.  Minnesota's Pino has been solid at home where he has a 3.96 ERA in 4 starts.  The Twins beat the White Sox 4-2 with him on the mound June 19.  He gave up only 2 runs in 7 innings while striking out 7 and walking 1 that day.  The Sox have dropped 8 of their last 11 Sunday contests, 12 of their last 17 division contests and 11 of their last 16 road games versus losing teams.  Bet Minnesota.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Phillies -140

Bottom Line: Lee was rocked in his first start back, but he almost always follows a poor outing with a strong one.  He has every incentive to pitch well here in an audition spot prior to the trade deadline.  He has a 2.83 home ERA on the season while Collmenter has a 5.17 road ERA.  Lee has a 3.12 ERA in 7 starts versus the D-backs, and the Phillies are 4-0 in his last 4 starts against them.  Lee's clubs are 4-0 lifetime in his home starts versus the Snakes.  The D-backs are 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage less than .400 and 3-14 in their last 17 in Philadelphia.  Pound the Phillies.

4* Major AL Central *SUREFIRE* on Twins -114

Bottom Line: Danks has had no luck versus the Twins with an ERA of 5.36 in 25 career starts.  The White Sox are 2-14 in his last 16 starts versus the Twins, including 0-8 in his last 8.  They are also 1-10 in his last 11 road starts versus Minnesota, including 0-4 in his last 4.  Correia has fared well versus the White Sox with an ERA of 2.93 in 6 career starts.  He's 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in his last five starts against the White Sox.  Correia also enters in better form.  He has a 3.71 ERA over his Last 3 starts while Danks has a 5.82 ERA over his last 3.  Bet Minnesota.

5* Wiseguy AL East Game of the Week on Yankees -125

Bottom Line: Toronto shut out Boston yesterday, but it is 0-9 under manager Gibbons following a win over a division opponent where it allowed one run or none.  It has lost by an average of 3.3 runs in this situation.  The Yankees are 16-0 in their last 16 at home versus Toronto, and they have owned Buehrle, whose clubs are 0-9 in his last nine road starts versus the Yankees.  Kuroda has had much better luck versus the Blue Jays, going 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 3 career home starts against them, including 2 wins over Buehrle.  Pound New York.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Mariners -132

Bottom Line: The Mariners are showing a lot of value at this price given the edge they hold on the mound with Iwakuma.  The right-hander has been rock solid at home (2.81 ERA) and enters in top form (1.59 ERA L3 starts).  The same can't be said about Baltimore's Chen, who has a 4.68 ERA on the road and a 4.32 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Chen is also 0-2 with a 4.56 ERA in 4 starts versus Seattle.  Chen hasn't pitched well enough to have 10 wins.  He's benefited from the league's highest run support average (6.36).  Unfortunately for him, the Orioles are batting a big league-worst .205 since July 9 and .167 in their past four games.  I don't see the O's getting enough off Iwakuma to get the win tonight.  AL favorites of -110 or higher are 57-15 the last 5 seasons when starting a pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or lower against an opponent that is starting a pitcher with a win percentage higher than 70.0 percent.  Pound the M's.

5* Wiseguy AL Game of the Week on Angels -162

Bottom Line: Tillman is 6-0 on the road, but his 4.69 ERA away from home is a big concern.  An LA club that leads the majors with 5.0 runs per game should be able to get to him.  Baltimore has been able to provide Tillman with run support on the road, but it will have a tough time getting much off Weaver.  The Angels are 6-0 in his last 6 starts, during which he's posted a 2.78 ERA.  He has a 2.26 ERA in his last 10 home starts.  The Angels are 89-36 lifetime in Weaver's home starts, including 39-12 in his last 51.  The Halos are also 27-6 as a favorite of -150 or more this season, including 20-4 at home in this price range.  Pound the Angels.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -125

Bottom Line: The Tigers have cashed 5* Wiseguy tickets for us the past two days, and I'll continue to ride them at a very reasonable price against an inferior opponent.  Detroit is 12-3 in its last 15 road games, 8-1 in Porcello's last 9 road starts and 9-1 in his last 10 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Tigers have been playing exceptional defense, and this is significant because they are 7-0 this season in road games after a stretch of 15 consecutive games with one error or less.  The Diamondbacks are an ultra soft 1-10 in their last 11 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Pound the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -134

Bottom Line: The Tigers are showing a ton of value at this price on the road (11-3 L14 road games), in interleague play (54-25 L79 interleague games versus losing teams) and versus a lefty starter (batting .289 vs. lefty starters this season, 27-11 L38 games versus lefty starters).  Even more importantly, they have Verlander on the bump.  While Big V has been average this season, his track record of success versus the NL can't be ignored. He's an unbeaten 12-0 with a 2.12 ERA in 14 regular-season interleague starts since June of 2010.  Look for Verlander to outduel Nuno, who is 0-3 in his last 3, 1-5 in his last 6 and 3-9 in his last 12 on the money line.  Pound the Tigers.

4* Major Sunday Night Baseball *BLOOD BATH* on Dodgers -1.5 +100

Bottom Line: I'm going to ride the hot hand of Kershaw tonight.  The Dodgers are 8-0 in Kershaw's last 8 starts, winning them by 4.4 runs on average.  They are 4-0 in his last 4 road starts, winning them by 4.5 runs on average.  Additionally, the Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games after suffering defeats in the first 2 games of a series, winning by an average of 4.2 runs in these contests.  Bet the Dodgers on the run line.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -134

Bottom Line: The Indians are 1-5 in Tomlin's last 6 starts, 0-4 in his last 4 starts during game 4 of a series and 2-7 in his last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  The Indians are 4-13 in their last 17 road games versus a left-handed starter and 16-35 in their last 51 in Detroit.  The Tigers are 5-1 in their last 6 games following defeat in the first 3 games of a series and 11-5 in their last 16 game 4's of a series.  Cleveland hasn't swept a series in Detroit since Aug 25-27, 2008, and it has never recorded a 4-game sweep there.  Pound Detroit.

5* Wiseguy MLB Underdog Game of the Week on Marlins +107

Bottom Line: The Marlins are showing tremendous value in the home dog role with Alvarez on the rubber.  They are 8-0 in his last 8 home starts, 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a home underdog, 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus winning teams, 6-0 in his last 6 starts during game 2 of a series and 6-0 in his last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Alvarez has a 1.19 ERA in his last eight home starts and his 1.56 season ERA at home ranks second in the majors.  San Francisco's Tim Hudson has gone 0-4 with a 6.07 ERA in his last 5 starts with the Giants losing 4 of those.  Pound Miami.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -140

Bottom Line: The Indians can't be trusted on the road, where they are 16-36 in their last 52 versus clubs with winning home records, especially with Bauer on the hill.  The right-hander is 0-3 with a 5.47 ERA in five road starts with the Indians losing four of those.  The Tribe has also dropped six of its last seven series openers.  Cleveland is 3-13 this season in road games versus AL clubs starting a pitcher with an ERA of 4.00 or lower.  Sanchez certainly fits into that category with a 3.04 ERA on the season.  He also has a 2.34 ERA in 8 career starts versus the Indians.  The Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 series openers, 7-1 in their last 8 division games, 5-1 in Sanchez's last 6 starts, 10-4 in his last 14 division starts and 4-1 in his last 5 starts versus Cleveland.  The Indians are 15-37 in the last 52 meetings in Detroit.  Pound the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on A's -140

Bottom Line: Oakland is 9-2 over the last 3 seasons following 2 straight road losses to a division opponent.  It is 21-8 over the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for 2 straight losses in which it was held to 2 runs or less.  Seattle is 8-24 over the last 2 seasons after allowing 2 runs or less in 2 straight games.  The A's are on a 7-2 run in the third game of the series, are 52-19 in their last 71 as a favorite and are 40-15 in their last 55 Sunday contests.  They are 4-0 in Gray's last 4 starts, 5-0 in his last 5 Sunday starts, 5-0 in his last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game and 5-0 in his last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The A's are also 8-1 in his last 9 division starts and 6-1 in his last 7 as a road favorite.  Gray is 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus Seattle while giving up only 2 earned runs in 18 innings.  Pound Oakland in this double revenge spot.

4* Major MLB *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Rangers +160

Bottom Line: Weaver has struggled on the road where he has a 4.72 ERA.  He's also struggled in Arlington, where he has a 4.84 ERA in 18 career starts.  The Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 meetings at Texas and 4-12 in Weaver's last 16 road starts versus the Rangers.  Texas is struggling, but it has a great track record versus Weaver and is showing great value at this price because of it.  The Rangers are a lot more familiar with Weaver than LA is with Mikolas and that plays to their advantage.  Look for Texas to pull off the shocker.

5* Wiseguy MLB Line Mistake of the Month on Phillies +120

Bottom Line: The Phillies are 5-0 in their last 5 overall, and I like them to keep right on rolling behind Hamels, who has a 2.87 ERA on the season.  He's a stellar 15-6 with an ERA of 2.58 in 28 career starts versus Washington.  The Phillies are 15-3 in his last 18 starts versus the Nats, including 3-0 in his last 3.  They are also 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus the Nats.  Strasburg has a 5.13 ERA in 8 road starts this season.  That's not an aberration, it's a trend.  The Nationals are 1-4 in Strasburg's last 5 road starts and 18-39 in the last 57 meetings in Philadelphia.  Pound Philly.

4* Major MLB Run Line Blowout on Rockies -1.5 +125

Bottom Line: The Rockies are 18-4 in De La Rosa's home starts since the beginning of last season and have won them by 2.0 run on average.  His clubs are 24-5 lifetime in his home starts as a favorite of -150 or more and have won them by 2.9 runs on average.  Colorado is 5-0 this season in his home starts this season versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game, and it has won these by 5.0 runs on average.

5* Wiseguy AL East Game of the Year on Rays -130

Bottom Line: The Blue Jays have been really struggling since early June, and I expect their struggles to continue versus a Tampa Bay club that is rounding into shape.  The Rays lost last time out but are 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss, 9-3 in their last 12 and 5-0 in their last 5 division contests.  They are also 4-0 in their last 4 versus lefty starters.  Buehrle got out of the gate strong but has cooled off.  The Jays are 1-5 in his last 6 starts, including 0-3 on the road during this stretch.  They are also 0-4 in his last 4 starts when he gets the ball following a team loss.  The Blue Jays are 1-8 in their last 9 road games, 0-6 in their last 6 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150, 0-5 in their last 5 road games versus a right-handed starter and 0-6 in their last 6 road games versus a team with a losing home record.  Archer has quietly been sizzlin' since mid-May, holding the opposition to 2 earned runs or less in 9 of his last 10 starts.  The Rays are 9-3 in Archer's last 12 starts as a home favorite.  He's 2-0 with a 2.22 ERA in 5 starts versus the Blue Jays.  Buehrle, on the other hand, has given up 4 runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts versus Tampa Bay.  The Blue Jays are 16-45 in the last 61 meetings in Tampa Bay.  Pound the Rays.

5* Wiseguy NL Central Game of the Month on Pirates +105

Bottom Line: Look for Pittsburgh to avoid being swept behind a gem from Volquez, who is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA over his last 3 starts.  He's given up just 1 run in his last 2 starts in 13 innings of work, and this is a very positive sign.  His teams are 13-3 lifetime in his starts when he's given up 1 or no earned runs in his last 2 outings.  The Cardinals are 0-4 in Miller's last 4 starts while he's posted a 7.32 ERA.  Pound Pittsburgh.

4* Major NL East *SUREFIRE* on Braves +108

Bottom Line: Look for the Braves to break through and salvage a game in this series.  NY is 4-27 the last 2 seasons when it checks in with 5 or 6 wins in its last 7 games.  The Mets are 2-14 the last 2 seasons after allowing 1 run or none in a win over a division opponent.  They are 1-11 the last 2 seasons in home games after a game where they stranded 3 or less base runners.  Bet the Braves.

5* Wiseguy Battle of the Bay *BEST BET* on Giants +110

Bottom Line: The A's are 0-3 in their last 3 road games and 1-5 in their last 6 road games versus winning clubs.  They are 17-41 in their last 58 interleague road games versus a team with a winning record and 2-12 in the last 14 meetings in San Francisco (86% trend in favor of the Giants).  The Giants are 37-16 in their last 53 interleague home games, 26-8 in their last 34 interleague home games versus a right-handed starter and 7-3 in their last 10 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.  Hammel is making his first start since coming over from the Cubs and hasn't pitched in this ballpark since 2011.  Cain has given up 1 earned run or none in each of his last 5 starts versus the A's.  Pound San Francisco.

4* Major ESPN Wednesday Night Baseball *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pirates +121

Bottom Line: Pittsburgh has had Lynn's number.  He has a 5.64 ERA in 11 starts against the Pirates and has been rocked for 20 runs in his last 4 starts against them spanning 19 2-3 innings.  The Cards are 0-3 in Lynn's last 3 starts versus the Pirates and 4-9 in their last 13 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  Cumpton has been in great form over his last 5 starts with the Pirates going 4-1 during this stretch.  He gave up no runs on 3 hits in 7 innings of a 6-0 win in his lone start against St. Louis last season.  Bet Pittsburgh.

4* Major NL Dog of the Day on Rockies +102

Bottom Line: The Padres haven't proven to be worthy of this much respect on the road.  They are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a road favorite and 5-11 in the last 16 meetings in Colorado.  The Padres are 1-5 in Ross' last 6 starts and 4-9 in his last 13 road starts.  He has a 4.18 ERA on the road and will have a tough time silencing a Colorado club that is batting .314 at home. Morales has a 0.75 ERA in a pair of starts versus the Padres, who are batting just .200 versus lefty starters.

5* Wiseguy Interleague Game of the Week on Tigers -110

Bottom Line: Verlander is starting to come around with a 2.84 ERA over his last 3 starts, including a win over the A's - arguably the best team in baseball - in his most recent start.  Verlander has been a gold mine in interleague play. He's 22-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 29 career starts versus the NL, including an 11-0 mark with a 1.78 ERA in his last 13.  He's an unbeaten 13-0 with a 1.83 ERA in 14 career interleague home starts.  Ryu is just 2-2 with a 4.23 ERA in six career interleague starts.  Pound the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Nationals -173

Bottom Line: Books are begging for underdog money with this line, but Washington is this large of a favorite for a reason.  Baltimore's Tillman has a 6.00 ERA in 8 interleague starts, including a 6.52 ERA in a pair of starts versus Washington.  He also has an ugly 5.53 ERA on the road.  Strasburg has been brilliant at home where he has a 2.35 ERA on the season.  He's 1-0 with an ERA of 1.80 in his lone start versus Baltimore.  The Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 interleague road games versus a team with a winning record while the Nationals are 9-1 in their last 10 interleague home games versus a team with a winning record.  The Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record, 4-0 in their last 4 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Nats are 14-3 in their last 17 games as a home favorite, 13-3 in their last 16 interleague games as a favorite of -151 to -200, 4-0 in Strasburg's last 4 starts versus the American League East, 7-2 in his last 9 home starts and 5-2 in his last 7 interleague starts.  Pound the Nationals.

4* Major NL West *BLOOD BATH* on Dodgers -138

Bottom Line: The Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a loss, 7-1 in their last 8 games versus a left-handed starter and 10-2 in their last 12 road games versus a left-handed starter.  They are also 4-0 in Beckett's last 4 road starts.  The veteran right-hander has been dealing on the road where he has a 1.86 ERA.  The Rockies are 15-37 in their last 52 overall, 28-61 in their last 89 Sunday games, 0-6 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game,0-7 in their last 7 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher and 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.  The Dodgers are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.  Bet LA.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Astros +1.5

Bottom Line: The Angels are being grossly overvalued with Santiago on the mound.  He's winless on the season with a 4.32 ERA in 10 starts, and his clubs are a weak 2-12 in his last 14, 6-19 in his last 25 and 8-24 in his last 32 starts. His clubs are 0-8 the last 2 seasons in his starts as a favorite of -110 or higher and have lost these by an average of 5.1 runs.  Feldman has a 3.92 ERA in 14 starts this season, including a 2.73 ERA in 6 road starts.  The Astros are 10-4 on the run line in his starts, including 4-0 on the run line in his last 4.  Feldman's teams are also 10-4 lifetime against the run line in his starts versus the Halos.  Houston is 12-3 against the run line in all games at the LA Angels the last 3 seasons.  Pound Houston on the run line.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Cardinals -148

Bottom Line: The Cards are showing a lot of value as a medium-priced favorite against a club that is just 27-62 in its last 89 road games versus winning teams.  The Marlins are on a 0-7 skid versus winning ball clubs.  The Cards are 77-33 in home games versus losing teams under manager Matheny.  They are also 22-4 in July home games under Matheny and 90-38 in home games versus NL clubs with a batting avg. of .255 or worse under his watch.  Eovaldi has an ERA of 6.00 over his last 4 starts, and I expect the struggles to continue after throwing a season-high 113 pitches last time out.  Lynn took it on the chin in his last start, but that was an aberration.  He had posted a 0.82 ERA in his previous 3 outings.  The Marlins are on a 0-5 slide in St. Louis.  Pound the Cards.

4* Major MLB *SUREFIRE* on Rangers -114

Bottom Line: Look for Darvish to bring Texas' road losing streak to an end tonight.  The Rangers are 14-4 in his last 18 starts.  Playing AL favorites of -110 or higher has resulted in a 36-8 record the last 5 seasons if they are starting a pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or lower and are matched up against a pitcher with a winning percentage of 70% or higher.  This system is 20-4 the last 3 seasons and 2-0 this season.  Bet Texas.

4* Major MLB *BLOOD BATH* on Yankees -137

Bottom Line: The Yankees hold the advantage with Tanaka on the bump.  He has recorded a quality start in each of his first 16 outings, and I expect no different tonight.  Tanaka is 11-3 with an ERA of 2.10 and a WHIP of 0.951.  The WHIP is noteworthy because the Twins are 4-18 this season versus AL starters with a WHIP of 1.300 or lower.  Though the Yankees have been struggling, they are 7-0 the last 3 seasons in road games following losses in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games.  The Yanks are 6-1 in Tanaka's road starts.  He should be able to outduel Hughes, who has given up 10 runs in his last 2 starts.  The Yankees are 73-27 in the last 100 meetings.  They are 14-3 in their last 17 in Minnesota, including 5-0 in their last 5.  Bet the Yanks.

4* Major MLB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Cardinals -137

Bottom Line: Playing against home underdogs of +125 or more with a bullpen that has an ERA over 7.00 over the last 5 games and a starting pitcher working on 5 or 6 days' rest has resulted in a 51-11 record the last 5 seasons.  Wainwright was rocked at home by the Giants at the end of May and will be very focused here as a result.  That performance was clearly an aberration as he has held the Giants to 2 earned runs or less in each of his previous 7 starts against them.  Vogelsong has been bit hard in each of his last 2 starts versus the Cardinals, giving up 9 runs in 11 2-3 innings. The Giants are 4-10 this season in home games versus NL starters who have an ERA of 3.50 or better.  Bet the Cards.

4* Major MLB *PUBLIC MASSACRE* on Astros +105

Bottom Line: After blowout victories by Seattle in the first 2 games of this 3-game set, the public is piling on the Mariners.  That's a decision that I believe will get you burned.  Seattle's Chris Young hasn't been the same pitcher on the road where he has a 4.50 ERA.  The Mariners are 0-4 in his last 4 road starts versus teams that have a losing record.  Houston's Peacock has a 3.97 ERA at home where the Astros are 4-1 in his last 5 starts.  He's allowed 3 runs or less in 6 straight starts, and the Astros are 2-0 in his last 2 starts versus Seattle.  The Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage greater than 60%.  Bet Houston.

5* Wiseguy Interleague Game of the Year on Red Sox -165

Bottom Line: The Cubs took Game 1, but I'm confident they won't get Game 2.  The Cubs are 18-44 in their last 62 games following a win, including 1-11 this season in road games following a win.  Edwin Jackson has a 6.70 ERA on the road and a 5.59 career ERA versus Boston.  The Cubs are 6-20 in Jackson's last 26 starts.  And, Jackson's clubs are 0-6 lifetime in his starts at Fenway.  He has a 7.84 ERA ERA in these six starts.  The Red Sox are 13-4 under manager Farrell when out for revenge for a shutout loss to an opponent.  They've won 10 of their last 13 at home and are 80-32 in their last 112 interleague home games.  Buchholz looked great from the 3rd inning on in his first start since spending a month on the DL.  He should enter this one with renewed confidence and should benefit from facing hitters that aren't familiar with his stuff.  The Red Sox are 7-1 in Buchholz's last 8 interleague starts.  Pound the Red Sox.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Reds -117

Bottom Line: I'll back the red-hot Reds against a San Diego club that is last in the majors in batting average (.212) and scoring averaging (3.0).  The Padres are batting only .130 over their last four games.  They'll have trouble generating offense against the former Padre Latos, who has a 2.99 ERA in 33 starts at Petco.  The Reds are 41-20 in Latos' last 61 starts, 34-16 in his last 50 starts as a favorite and 7-0 in his last 7 Monday starts.  The Reds are 5-0 in their last 5 overall, 6-0 in their last 6 versus the National League West and 4-0 in their last 4 games versus a right-handed starter.  Hahn has performed well for the Padres, but he's yet to face a lineup as potent as the one he'll see tonight.  Pound the Reds.

4* Major Sunday Night Baseball *BLOOD BATH* on Yankees -104

Bottom Line: The Red Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 games following a win, 5-13 in their last 18 road games and even 2-11 in their last 13 road games versus a team with a losing home record.  The Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 versus Boston and 6-2 in Whitley's 8 starts.  I expect him to have success against a Boston lineup that isn't familiar with his stuff.  The Yankees are very familiar with Lackey, touching him for 4 runs or more in 6 of his last 8 starts against them.  Bet New York.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Giants -112

Bottom Line: The Giants are 6-0 in their last 6 games after losing the first 3 games of a series.  This trend should be extended given the edge they have on the mound with Hudson.  The veteran right-hander has a 2.61 ERA in 14 starts this season, and this number drops to 2.59 at home.  Cincy's Bailey has a 4.80 ERA on the season that rises to 5.47 on the road.  The Giants are 5-0 in Hudson's last 5 starts on regular rest (4 days).  His clubs are a perfect 14-0 the last 2 seasons in his home starts when the total is 7 to 8.5.  His teams are 9-0 the last 3 seasons in his starts versus teams with a winning percentage of 51-54%.  The Reds are 4-12 in Bailey's last 16 starts as an underdog and 3-9 in his last 12 road starts versus a team with a winning record.  Pound San Francisco.

4* Major Run Line Play of the Day on Rockies +1.5 -132

Bottom Line: The Rockies are showing value catching runs at this price with De La Rosa on the hill.  They are 30-15 in his starts since the beginning of last season, including 16-6 in his last 22 starts.  They are also 10-1 in his day starts since the beginning of last season.  Colorado is 3-0 in his last three starts versus Milwaukee.  The Brewers are 1-7 lifetime Gallardo's starts versus the Rockies.  Bet Colorado on the run line.

4* Major Early *SUREFIRE* on Blue Jays -136

Bottom Line: Buehrle's knowledge of the hitters in his former division has really paid off as he's 8-0 on the money line versus AL Central opponents since joining the Blue Jays.  The White Sox are 32-69 in their last 101 road games, 0-5 in their last 5 games versus a left-handed starter and 6-21 in their last 27 road games versus a left-handed starter.  Bet Toronto.

4* Major MLB Saturday Night Bailout on Giants -114

Bottom Line: Great price to back the Giants at home with the more experienced starter on the bump.  Simon has come out of nowhere, and I don't see him sustaining his 1st-half form.  Cain has held the Reds to 3 earned runs or less in 6 of his last 7 starts against them.  He's a battler and won't fold just because he's had a couple bad outings in a row.  San Francisco is on a 20-9 run in the 3rd game of a series and is on a 7-2 run after dropping the first 2 games of a series.  Teams with a good bullpen (3.75 ERA or lower on the season) are 37-16 the last 3 seasons if their starting pitcher was rocked for 6+ runs in his last 2 outings.  This system is 3-0 this season.  Bet San Francisco.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Dodgers -139

Bottom Line: I'll gladly hop on Greinke at home at this price.  His clubs are 29-8 in his home starts over the last 3 seasons.  St. Louis has a low .311 on-base %, which dips to .304 on the road.  This bodes well for us as Greinke's clubs are 20-3 all-time in his home starts versus NL teams with an on-base % of .315 or worse.  He is also 6-0 in his last 6 home starts versus St. Louis.  Pound the Dodgers.

4* Major *MONSTER MISMATCH* on Tigers -144

Bottom Line: Detroit has the big advantage with Scherzer getting the ball.  The Tigers are 37-14 in his last 51 starts and 43-14 in his last 57 starts as a favorite.  The Astros are 2-11 in Oberholtzer's last 13 starts and 0-4 in his last 4 home starts versus a team with a winning record.  The Tigers are 10-3 in the last 13 meetings and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Houston.  Bet Detroit.

4* Major MONSTER MISMATCH on A's -157

Bottom Line: Miami played a 14-inning game yesterday that really took a toll on its pen.  That's not a good sign with Desclafani getting the nod as he averages just 5 1-3 innings per start.  It's also not a good sign that he has a 9.39 ERA in 3 home starts.  Way more often than not, the A's have been worth the price.  They are 37-14 in their last 51 games as a favorite of -151 to -200, 52-19 in their last 71 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200 and 30-7 in their last 37 interleague games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  They are 110-51 in their last 161 interleague games as a favorite and 93-45 in their last 138 games versus a team with a losing record.  Oakland Chavez has a 2.98 road ERA on the season.  The A's are 4-0 in his last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance, 6-0 in his last 6 starts versus a team with a losing record and 7-0 in his last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Bet the A's.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Braves -134

Bottom Line: Following yesterday's loss to Houston and 3 consecutive home losses to the Phillies last week, the Braves will be hungry.  They also catch Philadelphia at the perfect time.  The Phillies played a 14-inning game yesterday that taxed their bullpen.  Philly is 1-10 in home games after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings over the last 3 seasons.  Plus, the Braves put the better starter on the mound with Teheran, who has given up just 1 run in 17 innings against the Phillies this season.  The Braves are 14-4 in Teheran's last 18 starts versus a team with a losing record, 7-1 in his last 8 road starts versus losing clubs, 9-2 in his last 11 division starts, 6-0 in his last 6 Friday starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.  The Phillies are 5-13 in Kendrick's last 18 starts as an underdog and 1-5 in his last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Pound the Braves.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Giants -114

Bottom Line: Yesterday's 4-0 win over San Diego gives the Giants some much-needed confidence and momentum heading into this series.  The Giants are an amazing 73-36 in home games after shutting out an opponent since 1997.  Vogelsong has been at his best at home where he has a 3.33 ERA.  The Giants are 8-3 in his last 11 starts and 14-6 in his last 20 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  The Giants are also 4-0 in Vogelsong's last 4 starts versus the Reds, and he's held them to 2 runs or less in each of his last 3 starts against them.  Leake has given up 4 runs or more in 4 of his last 5 starts, and the Reds are 4-8 in his last 12 starts.  He's lost 2 of his last 3 starts versus the Giants, given up 5 runs in each of the defeats.  Pound San Francisco.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Reds -117

Bottom Line: Great price to back the Reds, who are 30-12 versus the Cubs the last 3 seasons, including 20-5 at Wrigley during this span. The Cubs won yesterday but have had trouble stringing together victories.  They are 33-64 the last 2 seasons after a win, including 9-25 during this stretch if the win came by 4 runs or more.  I don't trust Chicago's Edwin Jackson.  The Cubs have lost 10 of his 15 starts this season while he's compiled a 5.12 ERA.  They are 7-19 in his last 26 starts, 5-16 in his last 21 starts as an underdog and 2-8 in his last 10 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  He has a 7.47 ERA over his last 3 starts.  The Reds have already seen Jackson twice this year, and that's to their advantage now that they're in rhythm.  The Cubs haven't seen Latos since last season, and they don't want to see him (1.98 ERA in his L6 starts against them).  Bet the Reds.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Rockies -105

Bottom Line: The Cardinals 8-0 victory over the Rockies Monday handed Colorado a 7th straight defeat.  However, the Cards are just 4-13 the last 2 seasons following a win of 8 runs or more.  I fully expect the Rockies to get back in the win column tonight.  They are 16-4 in De La Rosa's home starts the last 2 seasons, and this mark tightens up to a near-perfect 9-1 if they're up against a team with a winning record.  Additionally, Colorado is a jaw-dropping 18-2 the last 2 seasons in De La Rosa's starts following a team loss.  Pound the Rocks.

4* Major MLB *BLOOD BATH* on Giants -155

Bottom Line: The Giants are no doubt worth the price here given the edge they have on the bump.  Despaigne is set to make his major league debut, but hasn't shown me he has the stuff to shut down the Giants.  He went 1-3 with a 7.61 ERA in 5 Triple-A starts before getting the call up.  The Padres are 1-8 in their last 9 road games, 24-49 in their last 73 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600 and 19-40 in their last 59 road games versus a right-handed starter.  The Padres are batting only .209 on the road and will have trouble getting to Cain, who has a 1.28 ERA in his last 6 starts versus them.  The Giants are 4-1 in Cain's last 5 starts versus the Padres and 21-7 in their last 28 home games versus the Padres. 

5* Wiseguy ESPN Sunday Night Baseball *BEST BET* on Rangers -119

Bottom Line: The Rangers have the clear advantage with Darvish getting the ball.  His 2.39 ERA through 13 starts is over a run lower than the ERA Shoemaker has posted through 6 starts.  The Rangers are 6-0 in Darvish's last 6 starts as a road favorite, 9-0 in his last 9 starts on regular rest (4 days), 5-0 in his last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game and 4-0 in his last 4 Sunday starts.  The Rangers are also 5-0 in Darvish's last 5 starts versus the Angels and 5-0 in his last 5 road starts against them.  Pound Texas.

4* Major World Cup Total of the Week on Portugal/USA UNDER 2.5

Bottom Line: Even with Portugal missing a couple key defenders, the United States will have a difficult time attacking the goal without Altidore.  The big, physical forward is the USA's best at showing for the ball and holding it to find overlap opportunities, etc.  We saw how difficult a time the US had possessing the ball against Ghana once Altidore left, and I expect the difficulties to continue.  Ronaldo isn't 100%, and that bodes very well for our cause.  Plus, the US defense performed well against Ghana despite being under frequent duress, and that gives me plenty of confidence that they can hold up here.  4 goals were scored in Portugal's opener and 3 were scored in the Unites States'.  So with a line of 2.5 odds makers appear to be begging for the over.  I won't bite as I expect a 1-1 draw or 1-0 victory.

4* Major Run Line *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Angels -1.5 +112

Bottom Line: I'm riding Weaver at home.  The Angels are 39-14 in Weaver's last 53 home starts and a perfect 11-0 in his last 11 home starts versus the Rangers.  These 11 victories have come by an average of 2.7 runs.  Texas' Martinez has a 9.45 ERA over his last 3 starts and will have a tough time slowing down LA's star-studded lineup.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* Blowout on Royals -168

Bottom Line: Royals have the bats going and should have no problem getting to Young (5.18 road ERA).  Vargas is in a groove, coming off 5 consecutive strong efforts.  Plus, he's 3-0 over his last 3 starts versus the Mariners and has given up a total of only 3 runs in those starts.  The M's are a soft 50-105 in their last 155 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200.  The Royals are 10-2 in their last 12, 5-1 in their last 6 as a favorite and 6-0 in their last 6 in the 2nd game of a series.  Playing against American League road dogs of +150 or more that are starting a pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or better has resulted in an 80-16 (83%) record the last 5 seasons if they are up against an AL opponent whose starting pitcher has a WHIP of 1.300 or better.  Pound the Royals.

5* Wiseguy MLB Game of the Week on Cardinals -160

Bottom Line: The Cardinals lost the series opener, but they are an impressive 71-35 following a loss over the last 2 seasons.  They are also a dominant 22-5 in home games versus NL East foes during this span.  Burnett is a lousy 12-35 lifetime against the money line as a road dog of +125 to +175.  The Phillies have won their last 4, but Burnett has been a cooler, going 0-6 the last 2 seasons when taking the mound following 3 or more consecutive team wins.  It's been ugly for Burnett at Busch Stadium where he's given up at least 5 earned runs in 3 straight starts.  Garcia has a neat 2.86 ERA in 7 starts versus the Phillies, which comes as no surprise considering how rough left-handed starters have been on them.  Philadelphia is sticking just .225 versus southpaw starters this season. The Cardinals are 62-25 in their last 87 home games versus a right-handed starter and 44-18 in their last 62 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200.  Pound the Cards.

4* Major NL East *BLOOD BATH* on Marlins -138

Bottom Line: The Mets are 2-8 in their last 10 road games, 3-14 in their last 17 during game 2 of a series and 1-7 in their last 8 road games versus a right-handed starter. They'll get nothing easy versus Alvarez.  The Marlins are 6-0 in Alvarez's last 6 starts, 6-0 in his last 6 home starts, 5-0 in his last 5 starts during game 2 of a series, 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus a team with a losing record and 4-0 in his last 4 division starts.  The Mets are just 1-5 in their last 6 meetings in Miami.  Bet the Marlins.

4* Major MLB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on A's -157

Bottom Line: This is a bad spot for Boston, which made the long trip to Oakland following last night's extra-innings win.  I expect the Red Sox to be emotionally and physically drained here.  They'll have to lean on Peavy to keep them in this one, and I don't see him coming through (5.40 road ERA this season).  The Red Sox are 0-4 in Peavy's last 4 road starts, 0-4 in his last 4 road starts versus teams with a winning record, 0-7 in his last 7 road starts when the total set at 7.0-8.5, 0-8 in his last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game and 0-8 in his last 8 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Red Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 games versus left-handed starters, and they'll have their hands full with Kazmir (1.45 home ERA this season).  The Athletics are 5-0 in his last 5 starts on regular rest (4 days), 5-0 in his last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game and 10-0 in his last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.  The Red Sox are 9-26 in their last 35 meetings in Oakland, including 1-8 in their last 9.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Rays -150

Bottom Line: The Rays are 61-29 in their last 90 home games versus a team with a losing record while the Astros are 24-60 in their last 84 road games versus a team with a losing home record.  Archer has been a force at home, and the Rays are 8-2 in his last 10 starts as a home favorite.  Tampa Bay's record isn't as good as Houston's, but the Rays are the better club.  We saw that recently when the Rays took 2 of 3 in Houston.  The Astros are 18-45 in their last 63 versus American League East foes and 3-12 in their last 15 versus the Rays.  Pound Tampa Bay.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Mariners -126

Bottom Line: Felix Hernandez is having a special season, and I don't see the struggling Padres having an answer.  They are batting .214 on the season and have managed just 1 run in each of their last 3 games.  They have been held to 3 runs or fewer 8 times during a 1-8 stretch.  They'll have a tough time getting anything off Hernandez, who has a 2.14 ERA on the season and a 1.21 ERA over his last 3 starts.  The Mariners are 6-0 lifetime in his starts at pitcher-friendly Petco where he has a 1.54 ERA.  The Mariners are also 4-0 in Hernandez's last 4 road starts, 7-0 in his last 7 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in his last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.  The Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games, 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite and 4-0 in their last 4 road games versus a right-handed starter.  Andrew Cashner will have a tougher time slowing down a Seattle lineup that has been at its best on the road where it is averaging 4.7 runs while batting .258.  Cashner has a solid 3.29 ERA over his last 7 starts but is winless during this stretch as his light hitting club hasn't provided him with much support.  He was easily outdueled by Hernandez in San Diego last May.  The Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague home games.  Pound Seattle.

5* Wiseguy World Cup GAME OF THE WEEK on Spain -151

Bottom Line: I fully expect Spain to bounce back strong after getting embarrassed in its opener.  They have the superior squad and are not lacking in motivation. Slow starts in big tournaments are nothing new for this team.  They lost to Switzerland in their 2010 World Cup opener and went on to hoist the trophy.  This is a must-win game for the defending World Cup and European champs, and I'm confident they'll rise to the occasion.  Pound Spain.

4* Major NL Run Line Play of the Day on Braves -1.5 +130

Bottom Line: Philly won a 13-inning battle yesterday while holding the Braves to a single run, but it is 3-13 against the run line the last 2 seasons after allowing 1 run or none in a win over a division opponent.  It has lost by 2.5 runs on average in this spot.  Additionally, favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 are 41-10 since 1997 if they draw an average of 3 walks or less per game and are off 3 straight games of 12 hits or more.  Teams fitting this system have won by 2.7 runs on average.  Bet the Braves on the run line.

4* Major AL Run Line Play of the Day on Tigers -1.5 +140

Bottom Line: The Tigers are 15-4 against the run line the last 2 seasons off an upset loss at home to a division foe.  They have bounced back to win by an average of 3.4 runs in this spot.  The Tigers are also 16-6 against the run line in Scherzer's home starts the last 2 seasons, winning them by 3.0 runs on average.  Scherzer is off a complete game shutout, which is noteworthy before the Tigers are 9-1 against the run line the last 2 seasons in his home starts after giving up 1 or no earned runs in his last outing.  They've won by an average of 4.2 runs in this spot.  Bet Detroit on the run line.

5* Wiseguy AL *BEST BET* on A's -165

Bottom Line: The Rangers have been a bad investment on the road in this price range going 65-134 in their last 199 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200.  The A's, on the other hand, are 82-38 in their last 120 games as a home favorite of any price.  Texas scheduled starter Colby Lewis has an ERA of 6.02 at night and a 7.47 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Oakland's Drew Pomeranz has a 1.65 ERA at night and a 1.88 ERA in all starts.  The A's are 3-0 this season in Pomeranz's home starts.  The Rangers are 0-3 in Lewis' last 3 starts in Oakland.  The A's have seen Lewis a lot over the years, but the Rangers don't have much familiarity with Pomeranz.  Advantage Pomeranz.  Pound the A's.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GM 5 *BEST BET* on Heat +6

Bottom Line: The two-time defending champs won't go down without a fight.  I expect them to take San Antonio right down to the wire with a chance to pull out the victory in Game 5.  Miami is 29-13 ATS when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons, 13-3 ATS off a home loss over the last 2 seasons and 24-9 ATS in road games off a loss of 20 points or more since 1996.  The Heat know they have to do a better job on the boards.  A big reason why they won Game 2 is because they won the rebounding battle.  They came up with just 35 boards last game but are 9-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in road games after a game of 35 rebounds or less.  They have won by an average of 12.9 points in this spot.  Lastly, the Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  Pound the Heat.

4* Major AL Run Line Play of the Day on Mariners -1.5

Bottom Line: Playing against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more has resulted in a 45-7 record since 1997 if they are off a win of 2 runs or less and up against an opponent that has scored 3 runs or less in 4 straight games.  This system has won by 2.9 runs on average.  Bet the Mariners.

5* Wiseguy NL Run Line Game of the Month on Giants -1.5

Bottom Line: Playing against underdogs of +175 to +250 that have an on-base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games has resulted in a 75-14 record since 1997 when they are up against an opponent starting a pitcher who has an ERA of less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts.  This system has won by an average of 2.6 runs.  Additionally, this system is 17-0 the last 5 seasons.  Playing against road underdogs of +175 to +250 that are batting .315 or better over their last 5 games are 50-6 since 1997 when they are up against an opponent starting a pitcher who has walked 1 batter or less in each of his last 2 outings.  This system has won by 2.7 runs on average, and it is a perfect 9-0 the last 5 seasons.  Pound the Giants.

5* Wiseguy AL Central GAME OF THE YEAR on Tigers -180

Bottom Line: I'm confident the Tigers are worth the price here.  They were upset yesterday but are 18-3 the last 2 seasons following a loss to a division foe as a favorite of -150 or higher.  They have bounced back to win by an average score of 5.7 to 2.7 in these games.  Additionally, home favorites of -150 or higher that are out for revenge for a loss as a home fave of -150 or higher are 45-7 since 1997 if they have a win percentage of 51-54% and are playing a team with a win percentage of 46% to less than 50%.  This system is a perfect 12-0 the last 5 seasons.  Detroit has a huge advantage on the pitcher's mound with Sanchez, who has a 2.24 ERA on the season and a 1.27 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Deduno has a 5.25 ERA on the season and a 7.43 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Deduno also has a 6.83 ERA in 5 starts versus the Tigers while Sanchez has a 2.42 ERA in 8 starts versus the Twins.  Pound the Tigers.

4* Major AL Play of the Day on Red Sox -137

Bottom Line: Boston is 6-0 in its last six at home and 7-1 in its last 8 home games versus the Indians.  Lackey is having a terrific season, and the Red Sox are 8-0 in his last 8 home starts versus teams that have a losing record.  Cleveland's Masterson has a 5.35 ERA on the road and is 0-2 in his last 2 starts at Fenway, giving up 11 runs in 12 innings during them.  Bet Boston.

5* Wiseguy NL *BEST BET* on Marlins -116

Bottom Line: Miami is crushing the ball at home this season, batting .279 and averaging 5.1 runs per game.  It's also crushing southpaw starters, batting .296 and scoring an average of 5.8 runs per game off them.  Going back to last season, the Marlins are 26-11 in their last 37 home games and 13-4 in their last 17 games versus a left-handed starter.  Pittsburgh's Locke has struggled, and the Bucs are only 2-8 in his last 10 starts. He's also struggled against the Marlins, who are batting .338 in the 3 games he's started against them.  Pittsburgh is just 7-15 in its last 22 games as a road underdog, and it is batting only .232 and averaging 3.4 runs per game on the road this season.  Miami's Eovaldi has a 2.49 ERA at home, and his teams are 7-2 in his last 9 home starts.  Pound the Marlins.